A-level predictions 'unreliable'

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Boys are more likely than girls to be given lower A-level predictions than they actually achieve, a study finds.

In a study of 250 students, researchers at Portsmouth University found 17% of boys, compared to 7% of girls, were given lower predictions by teachers.

They also found students from lower socio-economic groups were more likely to be given over optimistic predictions for their A-level scores.

And students given low predictions tended to do better than expected.

A-level grades are predicted by teachers months ahead of final exams and are used by universities to select applicants.

They are also used by students to decide what subject to study and to which universities to apply.

Imprecise science

Dr Martin Snell, from Portsmouth Business School, said the prediction of A-level grades was an imprecise science, with teachers getting it right in only about 45% of cases.

"The current admissions process continues to discriminate against certain groups and this has implications for government initiatives intended to widen participation in higher education," he said.

"University admission procedures are weighted in favour of predicted grades and so grade predictions have the direct effect of determining where and what subjects many pupils end up studying.

"Our study was only small and further research is needed to confirm our findings because it's important to try and understand why teachers' predictions are often inaccurate.

"Our study revealed clearly that students who are predicted higher total grades generally did less well than expected, whereas students who were predicted lower grades did better than expected."

Dr Snell said teachers may use low-grade predictions to stir some pupils into action and high predictions to encourage pupils who do not come from families with a history of going to university.

"Students who are predicted low grades are sometimes motivated to prove their teachers wrong," he said.

"At the other end of the spectrum students who are expected to obtain high grades might ease off once they have received an offer of a university place."

The research paper was published in the Oxford Review of Education.