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| Version 3 | Version 4 |
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| Is Boris Johnson planning an election? | Is Boris Johnson planning an election? |
| (about 11 hours later) | |
| It might not be welcome news for voters, let alone MPs, but the UK could be facing its third general election in little more than four years. With many pundits predict an autumn poll, here is a list of reasons why that might happen. And one why it might not. | It might not be welcome news for voters, let alone MPs, but the UK could be facing its third general election in little more than four years. With many pundits predict an autumn poll, here is a list of reasons why that might happen. And one why it might not. |
| Advisers’ leave cancelled | Advisers’ leave cancelled |
| No 10 feels very much on an election footing. No sooner are they finding their feet in their new departments than ministerial special advisers, or “spads”, non-civil service appointees whose careers are tied to those of their minister, have suddenly been told to cancel any holiday plans. An email from Boris Johnson’s own senior adviser, Edward Lister, warned spads that, barring exceptions and pre-booked cases, no holiday time would be allowed before the Brexit day of 31 October. | No 10 feels very much on an election footing. No sooner are they finding their feet in their new departments than ministerial special advisers, or “spads”, non-civil service appointees whose careers are tied to those of their minister, have suddenly been told to cancel any holiday plans. An email from Boris Johnson’s own senior adviser, Edward Lister, warned spads that, barring exceptions and pre-booked cases, no holiday time would be allowed before the Brexit day of 31 October. |
| A stream of policy announcements | A stream of policy announcements |
| He might have been prime minister for little more than a fortnight, but Johnson and his team have already pushed out a series of election-friendly policy announcements, from more police to a cash boost for schools and the NHS. On Thursday, Johnson even used an election-style Facebook address to the nation from his No 10 office to unveil a plan to ease immigration rules for scientists post-Brexit. | He might have been prime minister for little more than a fortnight, but Johnson and his team have already pushed out a series of election-friendly policy announcements, from more police to a cash boost for schools and the NHS. On Thursday, Johnson even used an election-style Facebook address to the nation from his No 10 office to unveil a plan to ease immigration rules for scientists post-Brexit. |
| A one-year funding settlement | A one-year funding settlement |
| Adding to the sense of clearing the decks before an election, it has emerged that the government is to ditch the planned three-year spending review and rush through a one-year version next month, setting out how the spending pledges will be paid for. This would head off accusations that Johnson’s promises were un-costed. | Adding to the sense of clearing the decks before an election, it has emerged that the government is to ditch the planned three-year spending review and rush through a one-year version next month, setting out how the spending pledges will be paid for. This would head off accusations that Johnson’s promises were un-costed. |
| MPs are on alert | MPs are on alert |
| For most MPs, recess in August is either about catching up on constituency casework or spending a couple of weeks on the beach. But many are instead busy preparing election machinery, even trailing the streets to knock on doors and talk to constituents. Others are plotting ways to undermine Johnson’s apparent ambition to remove the UK from the EU without a deal on 31 October. | For most MPs, recess in August is either about catching up on constituency casework or spending a couple of weeks on the beach. But many are instead busy preparing election machinery, even trailing the streets to knock on doors and talk to constituents. Others are plotting ways to undermine Johnson’s apparent ambition to remove the UK from the EU without a deal on 31 October. |
| It could be the only way to stop a no-deal Brexit | It could be the only way to stop a no-deal Brexit |
| While there are grandiose plans being made by some MPs to seek to block a no-deal departure, for example by amending the motion needed for parliament to break for party conferences in mid-September, or by amassing some government of national unity, more likely would seem to be a Labour-led vote of no confidence against the government. Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act (FTPA), if no new administration can be formed within 14 days of such a vote being successful, an election would happen – though perhaps falling after Brexit day. | While there are grandiose plans being made by some MPs to seek to block a no-deal departure, for example by amending the motion needed for parliament to break for party conferences in mid-September, or by amassing some government of national unity, more likely would seem to be a Labour-led vote of no confidence against the government. Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act (FTPA), if no new administration can be formed within 14 days of such a vote being successful, an election would happen – though perhaps falling after Brexit day. |
| The Commons arithmetic is against Johnson | The Commons arithmetic is against Johnson |
| After the Conservatives lost the Brecon and Radnorshire byelection to the Liberal Democrats at the start of the month, the government’s working majority fell to just one. With rumours swirling that several disaffected Tory moderates could be on the verge of quitting, even this could evaporate by autumn. And even if there was no vote of no confidence, leading a minority government is hugely difficult and Johnson could be tempted to seek a more secure mandate. | After the Conservatives lost the Brecon and Radnorshire byelection to the Liberal Democrats at the start of the month, the government’s working majority fell to just one. With rumours swirling that several disaffected Tory moderates could be on the verge of quitting, even this could evaporate by autumn. And even if there was no vote of no confidence, leading a minority government is hugely difficult and Johnson could be tempted to seek a more secure mandate. |
| MPs have backed the motion to allow a debate on a bill that would prevent a no-deal Brexit. In return, prime minister Boris Johnson says he will seek to hold an election, and will table a motion under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act. MPs will probably vote on this around 10pm | |
| Johnson had asked the Queen to prorogue parliament during this week. MPs were due to have a recess period anyway for the party conference season. If the prime minister gets his way, instead parliament may be dissolving for a snap election. | |
| The Labour and Conservative party conferences are due to be held on consecutive weeks - although MPs may be out campaigning instead. | |
| This is the date that Johnson was proposing parliament returns for the Queen’s speech setting out a legislation programme for his government. Alternately, it could end up being the date of a general election. | This is the date that Johnson was proposing parliament returns for the Queen’s speech setting out a legislation programme for his government. Alternately, it could end up being the date of a general election. |
| EU leaders meet for the final European council summit before the UK's extension is due to expire. They could possibly agree a new deal at this point - with just about enough time for Johnson, or whoever is prime minister by then, to try and get it through parliament. | EU leaders meet for the final European council summit before the UK's extension is due to expire. They could possibly agree a new deal at this point - with just about enough time for Johnson, or whoever is prime minister by then, to try and get it through parliament. |
| The six-month article 50 extension will expire, and current prime minister Boris Johnson has pledged that the UK will leave the EU with or without a deal on that date. | The six-month article 50 extension will expire, and current prime minister Boris Johnson has pledged that the UK will leave the EU with or without a deal on that date. |
| Why might it not happen? | Why might it not happen? |
| The arithmetic for a vote of no confidence looks incredibly tight – as well as needing virtually all opposition MPs to back the measure, it would require several Tories to vote to bring down their own government, which is a big ask. If it looks shaky, Labour might delay and try other methods to stop no deal. Johnson himself could call an election under the FTPA if two-thirds of MPs support the move. But it would be a big risk – an election amid the uncertain chaos of no deal, banking on the hope that the core pro-Brexit vote would all go to the Conservatives while the remain-minded supporters would fragment. Theresa May tried a similar tactic in 2017, and we all know how that ended. | The arithmetic for a vote of no confidence looks incredibly tight – as well as needing virtually all opposition MPs to back the measure, it would require several Tories to vote to bring down their own government, which is a big ask. If it looks shaky, Labour might delay and try other methods to stop no deal. Johnson himself could call an election under the FTPA if two-thirds of MPs support the move. But it would be a big risk – an election amid the uncertain chaos of no deal, banking on the hope that the core pro-Brexit vote would all go to the Conservatives while the remain-minded supporters would fragment. Theresa May tried a similar tactic in 2017, and we all know how that ended. |
| Boris Johnson | Boris Johnson |
| Conservatives | Conservatives |
| Brexit | Brexit |
| analysis | analysis |
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