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Despite the tough love, Johnson’s EU sortie has been a relative success Despite the tough love, Johnson’s EU sortie has been a relative success
(17 days later)
Boris Johnson looked supremely relaxed as he met Emmanuel Macron at the Élysée on Thursday, at one point even jokingly resting one foot on an expensive-looking French coffee table.Boris Johnson looked supremely relaxed as he met Emmanuel Macron at the Élysée on Thursday, at one point even jokingly resting one foot on an expensive-looking French coffee table.
From one perspective, his laid-back demeanour was surprising: Macron’s public remarks before their meeting made clear that the EU27 are a long way from acceding to the PM’s request for a “backstop-ectomy” on the withdrawal agreement.From one perspective, his laid-back demeanour was surprising: Macron’s public remarks before their meeting made clear that the EU27 are a long way from acceding to the PM’s request for a “backstop-ectomy” on the withdrawal agreement.
Instead, Macron underlined the importance of preserving the integrity of the single market and stressed that any solution reached in the short time left before 31 October would not be very different from Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement.Instead, Macron underlined the importance of preserving the integrity of the single market and stressed that any solution reached in the short time left before 31 October would not be very different from Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement.
But from another perspective – that of spiking the guns of restive backbenchers, and drawing up the battle lines for an early general election – Johnson’s diplomatic mini-break has been a relative success.But from another perspective – that of spiking the guns of restive backbenchers, and drawing up the battle lines for an early general election – Johnson’s diplomatic mini-break has been a relative success.
In particular, it should be no surprise that in Berlin on Wednesday, he seized on Angela Merkel’s mention of seeking a solution to the Brexit challenge within 30 days. She was merely signalling the EU27’s willingness to work quickly, rather than laying down a firm deadline. As she herself underlined on Thursday: “It is not about 30 days.”In particular, it should be no surprise that in Berlin on Wednesday, he seized on Angela Merkel’s mention of seeking a solution to the Brexit challenge within 30 days. She was merely signalling the EU27’s willingness to work quickly, rather than laying down a firm deadline. As she herself underlined on Thursday: “It is not about 30 days.”
But the idea that there is work to be done that could stretch well into September could help Johnson to survive the tense fortnight-long session of parliament before MPs leave Westminster once again for the party conferences.But the idea that there is work to be done that could stretch well into September could help Johnson to survive the tense fortnight-long session of parliament before MPs leave Westminster once again for the party conferences.
Variously described as an insurance policy or safety net, the backstop is a device in the Withdrawal Agreement intended to ensure that there will not be a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, even if no formal deal can be reached on trade and security arrangements. Variously described as an insurance policy or safety net, the backstop is a device in the withdrawal agreement intended to ensure that there will not be a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, even if no formal deal can be reached on trade and security arrangements.
It would mean that if there were no workable agreement on such matters, Northern Ireland would stay in the customs union and much of the single market, guaranteeing a friction-free border with the Republic. This would keep the Good Friday agreement intact.It would mean that if there were no workable agreement on such matters, Northern Ireland would stay in the customs union and much of the single market, guaranteeing a friction-free border with the Republic. This would keep the Good Friday agreement intact.
Both the UK and EU signed up to the basic idea in December 2017 as part of the initial Brexit deal, but there have been disagreements since on how it would work.Both the UK and EU signed up to the basic idea in December 2017 as part of the initial Brexit deal, but there have been disagreements since on how it would work.
The DUP have objected to it, as it potentially treats Northern Ireland differently from the rest of the UK, creating a customs divide in the Irish sea, which is anathema to the unionist party. The DUP have objected to it, as it potentially treats Northern Ireland differently from the rest of the UK, creating a customs divide in the Irish Sea, which is anathema to the unionist party.
Hardline Tory Eurosceptics also object to it, as they perceive it to be a trap that could potentially lock the UK into the EU's customs union permanently if the UK & EU cannot seal a free trade agreement. That would prevent the UK from doing its own free trade deals with nations outside the bloc.  Hardline Tory Eurosceptics also object to it, as they perceive it to be a trap that could potentially lock the UK into the EU’s customs union permanently if the UK & EU cannot seal a free trade agreement. That would prevent the UK from doing its own free trade deals with nations outside the bloc. 
Joint interpretative instrument Joint interpretative instrument 
A legal add-on to the withdrawal agreement was given to Theresa May in January 2019 to try and get her deal through the UK parliament. It gives legal force to a letter from Jean-Claude Juncker and Donald Tusk, the presidents of the commission and council. This stated the EU’s intention to negotiate an alternative to the backstop so it would not be triggered, or, if it was triggered, to get out of it as quickly as possible. A legal add-on to the withdrawal agreement was given to Theresa May in January 2019 to try to get her deal through the UK parliament. It gives legal force to a letter from Jean-Claude Juncker and Donald Tusk, the presidents of the commission and council. This stated the EU’s intention to negotiate an alternative to the backstop so it would not be triggered, or, if it was triggered, to get out of it as quickly as possible.
Unilateral statement from the UK Unilateral statement from the UK 
This set out the British position that, if the backstop was to become permanent and talks on an alternative were going nowhere, the UK believes it would be able to exit the arrangement. This set out the British position that, if the backstop were to become permanent and talks on an alternative were going nowhere, the UK believes it would be able to exit the arrangement.
Additional language in political declaration Additional language in political declaration 
This emphasises the urgency felt on both sides to negotiate an alternative to the backstop, and flesh out what a technological fix would look like. However, it failed to persuade the attorney general, Geoffrey Cox, who said that while it 'reduces the risk' of the UK being trapped in a backstop indefinitely, it does not remove it. This emphasises the urgency felt on both sides to negotiate an alternative to the backstop, and flesh out what a technological fix would look like. However, it failed to persuade the attorney general, Geoffrey Cox, who said that while it ‘reduces the risk’ of the UK being trapped in a backstop indefinitely, it does not remove it.
Prime minister Boris Johnson  declared the Northern Ireland backstop “dead” during his leadership campaign, and promised to throw it out of any deal he re-negotiated with the EU. The EU has repeatedly stated that it will not re-open the Withdrawal Agreement for re-negotiation.  Boris Johnson declared the Northern Ireland backstop ‘dead’ during his leadership campaign, and promised to throw it out of any deal he renegotiated with the EU. The EU has repeatedly stated that it will not reopen the withdrawal agreement for renegotiation. 
Daniel Boffey, Martin Belam and Peter Walker Daniel Boffey, Martin Belam and Peter Walker 
Jeremy Corbyn has made clear that his chosen strategy for preventing a no-deal Brexit is to trigger a vote of no confidence in Johnson’s government, and then seek support in parliament for a time-limited “caretaker” administration, which would exist only long enough to ask for an extension to article 50 and call a general election.Jeremy Corbyn has made clear that his chosen strategy for preventing a no-deal Brexit is to trigger a vote of no confidence in Johnson’s government, and then seek support in parliament for a time-limited “caretaker” administration, which would exist only long enough to ask for an extension to article 50 and call a general election.
Corbyn will be under intense pressure from the Labour movement to call that vote as soon as possible after parliament returns on 3 September – but potential Tory rebels, many of whom repeatedly voted for May’s version of Brexit, might stay their hand, if they believe leaving with a deal remains a live possibility.Corbyn will be under intense pressure from the Labour movement to call that vote as soon as possible after parliament returns on 3 September – but potential Tory rebels, many of whom repeatedly voted for May’s version of Brexit, might stay their hand, if they believe leaving with a deal remains a live possibility.
Even for hardened Conservative remainers, voting with Corbyn to bring down Johnson’s government is the most radical step they could take.Even for hardened Conservative remainers, voting with Corbyn to bring down Johnson’s government is the most radical step they could take.
They would not then be allowed to stand as Tory candidates at a subsequent general election, and may fear their seat at Westminster would simply be taken up by a Brexit party MP, or a Conservative more aligned with Johnson’s agenda.They would not then be allowed to stand as Tory candidates at a subsequent general election, and may fear their seat at Westminster would simply be taken up by a Brexit party MP, or a Conservative more aligned with Johnson’s agenda.
As plugged-in former Tory Nick Boles made clear on Thursday, their favoured strategy is to try to legislate to seek an extension of article 50 – and Brussels is watching closely to see whether they can succeed.As plugged-in former Tory Nick Boles made clear on Thursday, their favoured strategy is to try to legislate to seek an extension of article 50 – and Brussels is watching closely to see whether they can succeed.
Brexit deal solution at risk from ticking clock, not Merkel or MacronBrexit deal solution at risk from ticking clock, not Merkel or Macron
Meanwhile, Johnson is off to Biarritz on Saturday for the G7 summit; and the likelihood is that with every appearance on the world stage, he will appear more prime-ministerial – simply by virtue of the fact that he is prime minister, and in contrast with his often socially awkward predecessor.Meanwhile, Johnson is off to Biarritz on Saturday for the G7 summit; and the likelihood is that with every appearance on the world stage, he will appear more prime-ministerial – simply by virtue of the fact that he is prime minister, and in contrast with his often socially awkward predecessor.
But while Johnson needs the diplomatic mood to be friendly enough to help him bridge that fragile fortnight, the outlines of a more combative general election narrative have also become increasingly clear this week, beneath the diplomatic gloss.But while Johnson needs the diplomatic mood to be friendly enough to help him bridge that fragile fortnight, the outlines of a more combative general election narrative have also become increasingly clear this week, beneath the diplomatic gloss.
He stressed repeatedly in Paris that the UK is determined not to impose border checks in the event of no-deal Brexit – subtext: any snarl-ups will be your fault, not ours.He stressed repeatedly in Paris that the UK is determined not to impose border checks in the event of no-deal Brexit – subtext: any snarl-ups will be your fault, not ours.
And in name-checking the report from Greg Hands’ Alternative Arrangements Commission and stressing the “oomph” the UK is putting into pursuing an agreement, he hopes to rebut in advance the accusation that he is charging headlong towards no deal.And in name-checking the report from Greg Hands’ Alternative Arrangements Commission and stressing the “oomph” the UK is putting into pursuing an agreement, he hopes to rebut in advance the accusation that he is charging headlong towards no deal.
Instead, the blame will be laid squarely at the intransigence of Brussels (and Paris, and Berlin) – and the “remainer wreckers” in parliament.Instead, the blame will be laid squarely at the intransigence of Brussels (and Paris, and Berlin) – and the “remainer wreckers” in parliament.
BrexitBrexit
Boris JohnsonBoris Johnson
Emmanuel MacronEmmanuel Macron
Angela MerkelAngela Merkel
Foreign policyForeign policy
European UnionEuropean Union
Article 50Article 50
analysisanalysis
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