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| Hurricane Dorian Updates: Path of Storm Shifts as Florida Sees Signs of Hope | |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| Hurricane Dorian intensified to a Category 4 storm late on Friday as it swirled toward the United States, and forecasters on Saturday were projecting a sharp swerve north along Florida’s eastern coast before it comes ashore. Dorian could now make landfall in Georgia or the Carolinas later next week after losing some of its strength. | Hurricane Dorian intensified to a Category 4 storm late on Friday as it swirled toward the United States, and forecasters on Saturday were projecting a sharp swerve north along Florida’s eastern coast before it comes ashore. Dorian could now make landfall in Georgia or the Carolinas later next week after losing some of its strength. |
| It was good news for Floridians, who could now be spared a direct hit. But the powerful storm is still dangerous, and much of the state remains in the area that forecasters believe could be assailed by heavy winds, rain and storm surge. | It was good news for Floridians, who could now be spared a direct hit. But the powerful storm is still dangerous, and much of the state remains in the area that forecasters believe could be assailed by heavy winds, rain and storm surge. |
| Dorian was about 445 miles east of West Palm Beach, Fla, early Saturday morning, sustaining winds near 145 miles per hour. | Dorian was about 445 miles east of West Palm Beach, Fla, early Saturday morning, sustaining winds near 145 miles per hour. |
| For those watching as the storm cuts a wobbly path through the Atlantic, it does not help that this system has been especially unpredictable and has such a wide possible route ahead, or what meteorologists call the “cone of uncertainty.” Forecasters have had to adjust both when and where Dorian will slam into the mainland United States several times in the past few days, baffling officials and residents trying to make preparations. | For those watching as the storm cuts a wobbly path through the Atlantic, it does not help that this system has been especially unpredictable and has such a wide possible route ahead, or what meteorologists call the “cone of uncertainty.” Forecasters have had to adjust both when and where Dorian will slam into the mainland United States several times in the past few days, baffling officials and residents trying to make preparations. |
| Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida welcomed Dorian’s eastward shift but warned that the forecast remains uncertain. | Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida welcomed Dorian’s eastward shift but warned that the forecast remains uncertain. |
| “If it bumps just a little west, then you’re looking at really, really significant impacts,” he said on Saturday morning from the state’s emergency operations center in Tallahassee, the capital. “Don’t make any assumptions, remain vigilant, and be prepared.” | “If it bumps just a little west, then you’re looking at really, really significant impacts,” he said on Saturday morning from the state’s emergency operations center in Tallahassee, the capital. “Don’t make any assumptions, remain vigilant, and be prepared.” |
| He asked residents to heed local orders for mandatory evacuations, which are in place along some coastal communities in Brevard County (in the Space Coast) and Martin County (in the Treasure Coast). | He asked residents to heed local orders for mandatory evacuations, which are in place along some coastal communities in Brevard County (in the Space Coast) and Martin County (in the Treasure Coast). |
| “You don’t want to overread these tracks,” he said. “You’re still looking at really significant storm surge in the east coast of Florida. You’re looking at major flooding events in different parts of the state.” | “You don’t want to overread these tracks,” he said. “You’re still looking at really significant storm surge in the east coast of Florida. You’re looking at major flooding events in different parts of the state.” |
| Jared Moskowitz, the director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management, recalled Hurricane Matthew in 2016, which hugged the state’s Atlantic coast in a path similar to one Dorian could take. Matthew still washed out entire parts of roads. | Jared Moskowitz, the director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management, recalled Hurricane Matthew in 2016, which hugged the state’s Atlantic coast in a path similar to one Dorian could take. Matthew still washed out entire parts of roads. |
| Mr. DeSantis said that many gas stations were refueled overnight. Miami-Dade County should no longer see such long gas lines, he added. — Patricia Mazzei | |
| [Traveling? Your plans may be changing.] | |
| Florida residents are wrestling with the financial, logistical and psychological calculations of whether to stay or go. | Florida residents are wrestling with the financial, logistical and psychological calculations of whether to stay or go. |
| And local and state officials are staring down the meteorological and political calculations of whether to order evacuations that carry risks no matter what. | And local and state officials are staring down the meteorological and political calculations of whether to order evacuations that carry risks no matter what. |
| “Here’s the dilemma with evacuation: He who orders it, owns it,” said Russel L. Honore, a retired Army lieutenant general who earned acclaim for leading the military response to Hurricane Katrina. | “Here’s the dilemma with evacuation: He who orders it, owns it,” said Russel L. Honore, a retired Army lieutenant general who earned acclaim for leading the military response to Hurricane Katrina. |
| For many households, the cost of evacuation and finding a place to stay is a major factor. Others must weigh the mobility of aging family members, pets, and children, and the type of structure they call home. In 2019, there is also the challenge of making sense of Too Much Information, from breathless news and social media updates to relatives with an opinion. | For many households, the cost of evacuation and finding a place to stay is a major factor. Others must weigh the mobility of aging family members, pets, and children, and the type of structure they call home. In 2019, there is also the challenge of making sense of Too Much Information, from breathless news and social media updates to relatives with an opinion. |
| Florida’s governor, Ron DeSantis, said shoulders on Interstate 95 had been cleared for traffic and would be open when local evacuation orders were issued. The state, he said, would largely advise rather than direct local officials on whether to tell residents to flee. | Florida’s governor, Ron DeSantis, said shoulders on Interstate 95 had been cleared for traffic and would be open when local evacuation orders were issued. The state, he said, would largely advise rather than direct local officials on whether to tell residents to flee. |
| “You will see evacuations. I’m confident of that,” he said, adding: “But we’re not going to be telling every county, ‘Tell everybody to leave,’ because that may create some problems as well.” — Joseph B. Treaster and Amy Harmon | |
| [Read more on Florida evacuations here.] | [Read more on Florida evacuations here.] |
| Dorian’s erratic behavior has been particularly hard to track. Adding to meteorologists’ woes are the many amateurs tracking the storm on their own and challenging the accuracy of expert forecasters. | |
| Meteorologists have been surprised by the slow pace of Dorian, which swelled into a Category 4 storm on Friday night. It was inching toward the coast at 10 miles per hour, and forecasters revised their estimated arrival time, saying its center would approach the coast on Tuesday afternoon, though strong winds could begin thrashing Florida on Sunday. | |
| The jet streams that push hurricanes toward their destinations are relatively weak in this case, said Mike Brennan, who leads the Hurricane Specialist Unit at the National Hurricane Center in Miami. That means Hurricane Dorian may move more erratically, Mr. Brennan said, as it is more susceptible to the topography of the land it passes over and even thunderstorms in its berth, posing a challenge to forecasters hundreds of miles away. | |
| With so little clarity, viewers armed with radar images, hurricane models and air pressure numbers are marching onto the Facebook and Twitter pages of forecasters’ stations and demanding more precise information, challenging their predictions and sometimes even accusing them of misleading the public. | |
| Only a few years ago, residents might have not even known a storm existed until it was close to landfall, but now they are watching formations in the Atlantic Ocean and scouring the internet for raw storm data. | |
| “It used to be, ‘Hey, I heard there’s a storm out there,’ and now it’s like, ‘What’s that cloud doing coming off of Africa?’” said Chris Smith, a meteorologist at the NBC affiliate in Panama City Beach, Fla. — Nicholas Bogel-Burroughs and Patricia Mazzei | |
| [Read more about the challenges facing meteorologists.] | |
| You don’t meet a Dorian every day. Fewer than three out of every 10,000 babies born in the United States last year were given that name, according to the Social Security Administration. | You don’t meet a Dorian every day. Fewer than three out of every 10,000 babies born in the United States last year were given that name, according to the Social Security Administration. |
| The title character of Oscar Wilde’s novel “The Picture of Dorian Gray” was no one you’d be likely to name a child after, and only a tiny handful of Dorians have achieved any fame as singers, actors or athletes. However, Dorian was the surname of Zach Braff’s character on “Scrubs.” | The title character of Oscar Wilde’s novel “The Picture of Dorian Gray” was no one you’d be likely to name a child after, and only a tiny handful of Dorians have achieved any fame as singers, actors or athletes. However, Dorian was the surname of Zach Braff’s character on “Scrubs.” |
| So how did the name get attached to a major hurricane? | So how did the name get attached to a major hurricane? |
| Tropical storm and hurricane names come from annual alphabetical lists drawn up by the World Meteorological Organization. There are six such lists in rotation, so names recur every six years. But when a storm proves to be especially notorious, damaging and deadly, that name is retired — there won’t be another Katrina, Harvey, Maria or Sandy — and is replaced with another beginning with the same letter. That has happened 74 times since World War II. | Tropical storm and hurricane names come from annual alphabetical lists drawn up by the World Meteorological Organization. There are six such lists in rotation, so names recur every six years. But when a storm proves to be especially notorious, damaging and deadly, that name is retired — there won’t be another Katrina, Harvey, Maria or Sandy — and is replaced with another beginning with the same letter. That has happened 74 times since World War II. |
| Most of the names used for Atlantic storms are familiar ones to American ears, but a few relative rarities have come to be sprinkled in the lists as substitutes for retired names. The I’s have had especially high turnover — Ione, Inez, Iris, Isabel, Ivan, Ike, Igor, Irene, Ingrid and Irma have all been scratched — so the six “I” names currently in rotation include Idalia and Isaias as well as the more often encountered Isaac, Ida, Ian and Imelda. | Most of the names used for Atlantic storms are familiar ones to American ears, but a few relative rarities have come to be sprinkled in the lists as substitutes for retired names. The I’s have had especially high turnover — Ione, Inez, Iris, Isabel, Ivan, Ike, Igor, Irene, Ingrid and Irma have all been scratched — so the six “I” names currently in rotation include Idalia and Isaias as well as the more often encountered Isaac, Ida, Ian and Imelda. |
| Dorian is the first relatively uncommon “D” name to join the lists. It was chosen after the 2007 season to replace Dean, the name of a Category 5 storm that blasted through the Caribbean and Central America that year, leading to some 45 deaths. | Dorian is the first relatively uncommon “D” name to join the lists. It was chosen after the 2007 season to replace Dean, the name of a Category 5 storm that blasted through the Caribbean and Central America that year, leading to some 45 deaths. |
| There was a Tropical Storm Dorian in 2013, but it did minimal damage and was not blamed for any deaths. So the hurricane bearing down on Florida in 2019 is Dorian the second — and if it proves disastrous, perhaps the last. — Patrick Lyons | |
| Reporting was contributed by Patricia Mazzei and Joseph B. Treaster in Miami, and Nicholas Bogel-Burroughs, Amy Harmon and Patrick Lyons in New York. |