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| Brexit: Johnson threatening to deselect Tory rebels to provoke early election, claims Gauke - live news | Brexit: Johnson threatening to deselect Tory rebels to provoke early election, claims Gauke - live news |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| Rebecca Long-Bailey, the shadow business secretary and MP for Salford and Eccles, is now introducing Jeremy Corbyn at the Labour event. | |
| The Jeremy Corbyn speech is due to start soon. There is a live feed at the top of this blog. | |
| Corbyn is in Salford, where is he also chairing a shadow cabinet meeting. | |
| The self-described alternative arrangements commission, chaired by former ministers Greg Hands and Suella Braverman, has increased its campaign to get its July report on potential solutions for the Irish border accepted by the EU, London and Dublin. | |
| “Everybody needs to remember that a vote for a Brexit deal did actually pass in parliament earlier this year. The Brady amendment, calling for alternative arrangements to the Irish backstop, had a majority of 16,” the commission said in a statement announcing updates to its report. It went on: | |
| The reality is that the clock is now ticking rapidly towards a no-deal on October 31st. We ask that all sides, including the British government, the EU and the Irish government, come together and use our tools to agree a new withdrawal agreement. | |
| Braverman, a Brexiter, briefed the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, and his principle adviser Stephanie Riso on Friday. | |
| In its new report, the commission proposes a series of changes to the political declaration that accompanied the withdrawal agreement including a “clear commitment” that “provisions relating to building on the backstop and the single customs territory are removed”. | |
| It also states that the government’s aim is no longer “frictionless trade” with the EU but “as frictionless as possible trade” and that the political declaration needs to clearly state that a free trade agreement is the ultimate “end destination”. | |
| Other new proposals for the declaration include a commitment to ensure the EU “does not introduce hostile new rules” in any transition period. | |
| And it wants changes to ensure the UK’s sovereign defence and security, including the “five eyes” intelligence alliance, is protected. | |
| Here are the key points from Tony Blair’s speech. I cannot find a text of it online yet, but it will probably appear on his foundation’s website at some point. | |
| Blair said Boris Johnson wanted an early election because it would be a “trap” for Labour. Rather than voting for an early election, MPs should insist on a referendum, he said: | |
| If parliament cannot agree, then the right way to consult the people is not through a general election but through a referendum. | |
| That means, as MPs from different parties have agreed, that there should not be a motion of no confidence but rather legislation preventing no deal. | |
| Should the government seek an election, it should be refused in favour of a referendum. | |
| It is counter-intuitive for opposition parties to refuse an election. But in this exceptional case, it is vital they do so as a matter of principle, until Brexit is resolved. | |
| Brexit is an issue which stands on its own, was originally decided on its own and should be reconsidered on its own. | |
| The Brexiteers are laying a trap, to seem as if pushed into an election, whilst actively preparing for one. | |
| Blair said Jeremy Corbyn’s unpopularity would make an election more appealing to Johnson. | |
| [The Brexiters] know there are two issues in British politics not one: Brexit; and the Corbyn leadership. | |
| It is the interplay between these two issues that has shaped and defined British politics over the past 3-4 years. | |
| Boris Johnson knows that if no deal Brexit stands on its own as a proposition, it might well fail. But if he mixes up the Brexit question with the Corbyn question in a general election, he could succeed, despite a majority being against a no deal Brexit, because some may fear a Corbyn premiership more. | |
| Blair acknowledged that the prospect of a no-deal Brexit as an alternative might also make some people more likely than otherwise to vote for Corbyn. But he said that Corbyn should recognise an election as “the elephant trap it is” and he said Corbyn had acted “responsibly” in making legislation to rule out no deal a priority this week, not a confidence vote. He went on: | |
| Leave aside what is fair or unfair: no opposition leader or party with these poll ratings has won an election. | |
| The 2017 result has inoculated the Labour party against a realistic assessment of where it stands. | |
| To be sure, an election is a risk for the Tories. Each Tory candidate will have to sign up to no deal. The Brexit party is a one man unpredictable band. Scotland will be very tough. | |
| But my bet is the Brexit party will collapse to them. | |
| The Labour party at present will struggle; a resurgent Lib Dems will do well, but not well enough to govern. The opposition vote will split. Under our system that delivers a comfortable Tory majority. | |
| Blair suggested he was surprised that Johnson did not realise people would question the legitimacy of a no-deal Brexit. | |
| Does no one presently in government, particularly those cabinet members who used to protest against the irresponsibility of such a course, understand the consequence of doing this in circumstances where a large part of the country will regard it as illegitimate? | |
| Democracy depends on a shared sense of legitimacy in decision making. | |
| Legitimacy is not the same as agreement with government. Governments do things people dislike. But outside of the political fringes, most people accept their right to do them. | |
| This is now a crisis of legitimacy. | |
| No one in government even pretends to address these anxieties. | |
| He said Brexit was difficult to resolve because there were at least three different versions of it. | |
| Not once have our nation’s leadership explained to the public why Brexit has been so difficult to resolve, which is because there are at least three different versions of it – hard, soft and no-deal and all are vastly different in their implications. | |
| He said the Brexit debate was so bitter because it was about values and identity, and not just about the EU. | |
| Brexit has become so bitter because Brexit is not simply about a decision to leave the EU. It is about culture, identity, values, generation. The essence is not about trade. It is about who we are as a nation in the 21st century. | |
| Normally questions of identity play out over time, by evolution, or by staggered points of development in successive elections. But the holding of the referendum turned this into a moment of revolution. | |
| It forced us to confront a division, perhaps better unconfronted. | |
| On the one side are those who feel Britain as they know it, is being cast aside, the things they like about Britain disappearing, and in their place, petty political correctness, bureaucratic obsessions, magnified and exemplified by Europe, and, above all, obedience to the god of multi-culturalism at the expense of ‘our own culture’ ... | |
| Those of us on the other side ... we look at Europe today and see 70 years of peace and relative stability. | |
| He suggested that world war two was casting “a long shadow over the British psyche” which was not helpful. He said: | |
| [Pro-Brexit] Britain imagines a parallel with the second world war, a period of our history which, rightly, makes us proud. Read the speeches of the Brexiteers and they are replete with references to this feat of glory. | |
| But it casts a long shadow over the British psyche. It creates a longing to live the moment again, to see each new circumstance through the lens of its narrative, a life and death struggle between us and those who would harm us, where against all odds we triumph, a series of Darkest Hours from which we emerge to the sunlit uplands. | |
| It is not just Tory MPs planning to support the legislation intended to rule out a no-deal Brexit on 31 October who are criticising Boris Johnson’s decision to threaten rebels with the withdrawal of the whip. This is what Charles Walker, a Brexiter Tory and acting co-chair of the Conservative 1922 Committee, told the Daily Telegraph about Johnson’s strategy. Walker said: | It is not just Tory MPs planning to support the legislation intended to rule out a no-deal Brexit on 31 October who are criticising Boris Johnson’s decision to threaten rebels with the withdrawal of the whip. This is what Charles Walker, a Brexiter Tory and acting co-chair of the Conservative 1922 Committee, told the Daily Telegraph about Johnson’s strategy. Walker said: |
| I say, as a committed Brexiteer and acting co-chair of the 1922, that talk of purging good Conservatives, who were serving in government up until late July, from our ranks is extremely unpleasant and the idea is one that must be resisted. | I say, as a committed Brexiteer and acting co-chair of the 1922, that talk of purging good Conservatives, who were serving in government up until late July, from our ranks is extremely unpleasant and the idea is one that must be resisted. |
| On the Today programme this morning Nick Boles, the former Conservative MP who now sits as an independent having left the party over its hard Brexit policies, said he thought his old party was dead because the “hard right” had taken over. | On the Today programme this morning Nick Boles, the former Conservative MP who now sits as an independent having left the party over its hard Brexit policies, said he thought his old party was dead because the “hard right” had taken over. |
| Asked if the Tory party was finished, he said: | Asked if the Tory party was finished, he said: |
| Yes. The hard right has taken over the Conservative party. The Conservative party has fallen prey to an almost religious obsession with the hardest form of Brexit. | Yes. The hard right has taken over the Conservative party. The Conservative party has fallen prey to an almost religious obsession with the hardest form of Brexit. |
| Boles also said that there were “some people in the Conservative party who are willing to sell their principles at a pretty low price in exchange for a job in the cabinet despite what they’ve said previously about a no-deal Brexit.” | Boles also said that there were “some people in the Conservative party who are willing to sell their principles at a pretty low price in exchange for a job in the cabinet despite what they’ve said previously about a no-deal Brexit.” |
| Tony Blair is now taking questions. There is a live feed of the event here. | Tony Blair is now taking questions. There is a live feed of the event here. |
| One of the arguments Boris Johnson makes for leaving the EU by 31 October at the latest is that voters are fed up with the Brexit crisis. They just want the whole thing over, he argues, so that the government can focus on other issues, such as health and crime. It is an argument that probably resonates with many people. | One of the arguments Boris Johnson makes for leaving the EU by 31 October at the latest is that voters are fed up with the Brexit crisis. They just want the whole thing over, he argues, so that the government can focus on other issues, such as health and crime. It is an argument that probably resonates with many people. |
| In his speech on Brexit this morning Tony Blair, the former Labour prime minister, said this was not a good reason for pressing ahead. He said: | In his speech on Brexit this morning Tony Blair, the former Labour prime minister, said this was not a good reason for pressing ahead. He said: |
| It has suited [the Brexiters] to ride a wave of ‘just do it’ emotion, born of public impatience. You’re bored of Brexit. I’m bored of Brexit. We all are. But no serious political leader would suggest that we should take a decision of this magnitude by an effluxion of patience. | It has suited [the Brexiters] to ride a wave of ‘just do it’ emotion, born of public impatience. You’re bored of Brexit. I’m bored of Brexit. We all are. But no serious political leader would suggest that we should take a decision of this magnitude by an effluxion of patience. |
| HuffPost has a preview of the Blair speech here. I’ll post a full summary when I’ve seen the text, but the BBC’s Chris Mason has some excerpts. | HuffPost has a preview of the Blair speech here. I’ll post a full summary when I’ve seen the text, but the BBC’s Chris Mason has some excerpts. |
| Tony Blair: ‘you’re bored of Brexit. I’m bored of Brexit. We all are. But no serious political leader would suggest we should take a decision of this magnitude by an effluxion of patience.’ pic.twitter.com/iHiexUdaLo | Tony Blair: ‘you’re bored of Brexit. I’m bored of Brexit. We all are. But no serious political leader would suggest we should take a decision of this magnitude by an effluxion of patience.’ pic.twitter.com/iHiexUdaLo |
| Page 2 of Tony Blair speech... pic.twitter.com/apDJrAi38x | Page 2 of Tony Blair speech... pic.twitter.com/apDJrAi38x |
| Page 3 of the Blair speech...including ‘our government has been taken over by a gang of adventurers. But don’t underestimate the appeal of adventure after a long period of paralysis.’ pic.twitter.com/S1GdNBTeM7 | Page 3 of the Blair speech...including ‘our government has been taken over by a gang of adventurers. But don’t underestimate the appeal of adventure after a long period of paralysis.’ pic.twitter.com/S1GdNBTeM7 |
| Page 4... pic.twitter.com/XFzIQpFvjY | Page 4... pic.twitter.com/XFzIQpFvjY |
| Page 5 — including the crux of Tony Blair’s argument pic.twitter.com/pz0Xbqj3PA | Page 5 — including the crux of Tony Blair’s argument pic.twitter.com/pz0Xbqj3PA |
| Page 6 — in which Tony Blair says Labour should oppose a general election until Brexit is ‘resolved.’ pic.twitter.com/mIW2Fmmvr5 | Page 6 — in which Tony Blair says Labour should oppose a general election until Brexit is ‘resolved.’ pic.twitter.com/mIW2Fmmvr5 |
| Here is a Press Association list of members of the cabinet who have defied the government whip this year - sustaining Philip Hammond’s claim that Boris Johnson is being “staggeringly hypocritical”. (See 8.52am.) | Here is a Press Association list of members of the cabinet who have defied the government whip this year - sustaining Philip Hammond’s claim that Boris Johnson is being “staggeringly hypocritical”. (See 8.52am.) |
| Boris Johnson, prime minister: Voted against Theresa May’s Brexit deal in first two votes | Boris Johnson, prime minister: Voted against Theresa May’s Brexit deal in first two votes |
| Dominic Raab, foreign secretary: Voted against May’s Brexit deal in first two votes | Dominic Raab, foreign secretary: Voted against May’s Brexit deal in first two votes |
| Priti Patel, home secretary: Voted against May’s Brexit deal in all three votes | Priti Patel, home secretary: Voted against May’s Brexit deal in all three votes |
| Grant Shapps, transport secretary: Voted against May’s Brexit deal in first two votes | Grant Shapps, transport secretary: Voted against May’s Brexit deal in first two votes |
| Theresa Villiers, environment secretary: Voted against May’s Brexit deal in all three votes | Theresa Villiers, environment secretary: Voted against May’s Brexit deal in all three votes |
| Esther McVey, housing minister: Voted against May’s Brexit deal twice | Esther McVey, housing minister: Voted against May’s Brexit deal twice |
| Amber Rudd, work and pensions secretary: Abstained in vote on ruling out no-deal Brexit in all circumstances in March, despite government MPs being under orders to vote against | Amber Rudd, work and pensions secretary: Abstained in vote on ruling out no-deal Brexit in all circumstances in March, despite government MPs being under orders to vote against |
| Jacob Rees-Mogg, leader of the Commons: Voted against May’s Brexit deal in first two votes | Jacob Rees-Mogg, leader of the Commons: Voted against May’s Brexit deal in first two votes |
| The Tory rebels planning to vote for legislation intended to block a no-deal Brexit on 31 October don’t actually have a leader - Philip Hammond, Sir Oliver Letwin and Rory Stewart are all key players - but they do have a nickname, the Gaukeward squad, making David Gauke, the former justice secretary, at least their eponymous figurehead. | The Tory rebels planning to vote for legislation intended to block a no-deal Brexit on 31 October don’t actually have a leader - Philip Hammond, Sir Oliver Letwin and Rory Stewart are all key players - but they do have a nickname, the Gaukeward squad, making David Gauke, the former justice secretary, at least their eponymous figurehead. |
| On the Today programme this morning Gauke said he thought Boris Johnson was trying to orchestrate an early election. (See 8.52am.) Here are some other lines from his interview. | On the Today programme this morning Gauke said he thought Boris Johnson was trying to orchestrate an early election. (See 8.52am.) Here are some other lines from his interview. |
| Gauke said he thought there would be a 95% chance of a no-deal Brexit if efforts to legislate to block such a scenario failed in the Commons this week. He said: | Gauke said he thought there would be a 95% chance of a no-deal Brexit if efforts to legislate to block such a scenario failed in the Commons this week. He said: |
| Frankly, there’s not a credible plan coming from the government to be able to leave with a deal on October 31. I would say it’s a 95% chance, to be honest, that if parliament does not act this week that we will leave without a deal on October 31. | Frankly, there’s not a credible plan coming from the government to be able to leave with a deal on October 31. I would say it’s a 95% chance, to be honest, that if parliament does not act this week that we will leave without a deal on October 31. |
| He said he had written to Geoffrey Cox, the attorney general, asking the government to confirm that it would comply with any legislation passed this week. His letter was triggered by Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister, refusing to confirm yesterday that the government would obey such a law. Gauke said: | He said he had written to Geoffrey Cox, the attorney general, asking the government to confirm that it would comply with any legislation passed this week. His letter was triggered by Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister, refusing to confirm yesterday that the government would obey such a law. Gauke said: |
| The rule of law is hugely important to this country and I am concerned by some of the briefings that have been put out by the government suggesting that they won’t comply with the law, and I think Michael was equivocal on that question yesterday. | The rule of law is hugely important to this country and I am concerned by some of the briefings that have been put out by the government suggesting that they won’t comply with the law, and I think Michael was equivocal on that question yesterday. |
| I think it would be very helpful if the government could clarify that they believe in the rule of law. | I think it would be very helpful if the government could clarify that they believe in the rule of law. |
| That’s why I’m writing to the attorney general and also the lord chancellor [Robert Buckland], who has particular responsibility for this, just to get confirmation that this government believes in the rule of law, that it will comply with the law, and if legislation is properly passed it will be complied with. | That’s why I’m writing to the attorney general and also the lord chancellor [Robert Buckland], who has particular responsibility for this, just to get confirmation that this government believes in the rule of law, that it will comply with the law, and if legislation is properly passed it will be complied with. |
| Good morning. With MPs returning to the House of Commons tomorrow, and the Brexit confrontation between Boris Johnson’s government and parliament set to climax in MPs trying to pass legislation this week to rule out a no-deal Brexit on 31 October, last night Johnson escalated hostilities by, as Jessica Elgot puts it, threatening to “blow up his own parliamentary majority and withdraw the whip from dozens of Conservative MPs if they back plans to stop no-deal Brexit”. Here is the full story. | Good morning. With MPs returning to the House of Commons tomorrow, and the Brexit confrontation between Boris Johnson’s government and parliament set to climax in MPs trying to pass legislation this week to rule out a no-deal Brexit on 31 October, last night Johnson escalated hostilities by, as Jessica Elgot puts it, threatening to “blow up his own parliamentary majority and withdraw the whip from dozens of Conservative MPs if they back plans to stop no-deal Brexit”. Here is the full story. |
| Johnson could sacrifice majority by withdrawing whip from rebel MPs | Johnson could sacrifice majority by withdrawing whip from rebel MPs |
| Some of those Tory MPs planning to vote with the opposition to rule out a no-deal Brexit on 31 October are not backing down. Philip Hammond, the chancellor, posted this on Twitter at the weekend, after Johnson’s plan was first revealed in the Sun. | Some of those Tory MPs planning to vote with the opposition to rule out a no-deal Brexit on 31 October are not backing down. Philip Hammond, the chancellor, posted this on Twitter at the weekend, after Johnson’s plan was first revealed in the Sun. |
| If true, this would be staggeringly hypocritical: 8 members of the current cabinet have defied the party whip this year. I want to honour our 2017 manifesto which promised a “smooth and orderly” exit and a “deep and special partnership” with the EU. Not an undemocratic No Deal. https://t.co/045od2lsvD | If true, this would be staggeringly hypocritical: 8 members of the current cabinet have defied the party whip this year. I want to honour our 2017 manifesto which promised a “smooth and orderly” exit and a “deep and special partnership” with the EU. Not an undemocratic No Deal. https://t.co/045od2lsvD |
| David Gauke, the former justice secretary, told the Andrew Marr Show yesterday that he would continue with his rebellion and last night the former Foreign Office minister Alistair Burt backed him. | David Gauke, the former justice secretary, told the Andrew Marr Show yesterday that he would continue with his rebellion and last night the former Foreign Office minister Alistair Burt backed him. |
| He’s all you say. But he’s not alone. https://t.co/VXrhV1PWK8 | He’s all you say. But he’s not alone. https://t.co/VXrhV1PWK8 |
| Rory Stewart, the former international development secretary, also said he was willing to lose the whip over this issue. | Rory Stewart, the former international development secretary, also said he was willing to lose the whip over this issue. |
| And me too I hope | And me too I hope |
| Yesterday Johnson also cancelled a meeting planned for today with the rebels. On the Today programme this morning Gauke said the PM was acting as if he wanted to lose the key votes this week so that he could trigger a general election. Gauke explained: | Yesterday Johnson also cancelled a meeting planned for today with the rebels. On the Today programme this morning Gauke said the PM was acting as if he wanted to lose the key votes this week so that he could trigger a general election. Gauke explained: |
| It’s a very odd way [of trying to win round rebel MPs]. Normally there would be plenty of cajoling, friends in the cabinet would be phoning up saying: ‘Come on, why won’t you support the government, give them a bit more time.’ None of that is happening. The usual operational isn’t particularly happening. It does seem to me that they’re almost goading people into voting against the government because I think their strategy, to be honest, is to lose this week and then seek a general election, having removed those of use who are not against Brexit, not against leaving the European Union, but believe we should do so with a deal. | It’s a very odd way [of trying to win round rebel MPs]. Normally there would be plenty of cajoling, friends in the cabinet would be phoning up saying: ‘Come on, why won’t you support the government, give them a bit more time.’ None of that is happening. The usual operational isn’t particularly happening. It does seem to me that they’re almost goading people into voting against the government because I think their strategy, to be honest, is to lose this week and then seek a general election, having removed those of use who are not against Brexit, not against leaving the European Union, but believe we should do so with a deal. |
| Gauke’s analysis seems very reasonable, and it is in line with what many commentators are saying (for example, see this blogpost from the BBC’s political editor, Laura Kuenssberg, and this one from Robert Peston, her opposite number at ITV), but of course under the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act calling an election is no longer straightforward. Johnson could only do it with opposition support and that would only be forthcoming if the timing of the election did not make a no-deal Brexit inevitable. | Gauke’s analysis seems very reasonable, and it is in line with what many commentators are saying (for example, see this blogpost from the BBC’s political editor, Laura Kuenssberg, and this one from Robert Peston, her opposite number at ITV), but of course under the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act calling an election is no longer straightforward. Johnson could only do it with opposition support and that would only be forthcoming if the timing of the election did not make a no-deal Brexit inevitable. |
| Here is the agenda for the day. | Here is the agenda for the day. |
| 9am: Gordon Brown, the former Labour prime minister, gives a speech on a no-deal Brexit at a Hope not Hate event in Liverpool. | 9am: Gordon Brown, the former Labour prime minister, gives a speech on a no-deal Brexit at a Hope not Hate event in Liverpool. |
| 9.30am: Tony Blair, another former Labour prime minister, gives a speech on Brexit. As HuffPost reports, he will say Labour should avoid the “elephant trap” of a snap general election that could be used to ram through a no-deal Brexit. | 9.30am: Tony Blair, another former Labour prime minister, gives a speech on Brexit. As HuffPost reports, he will say Labour should avoid the “elephant trap” of a snap general election that could be used to ram through a no-deal Brexit. |
| 11am: Jeremy Corbyn gives a speech in Salford. As Jessica Elgot reports, he will argue that this week’s parliamentary confrontation is a “battle of the many against the few who are hijacking the referendum result to shift even more power and wealth towards those at the top”. | 11am: Jeremy Corbyn gives a speech in Salford. As Jessica Elgot reports, he will argue that this week’s parliamentary confrontation is a “battle of the many against the few who are hijacking the referendum result to shift even more power and wealth towards those at the top”. |
| 11am: Downing Street lobby briefing. | 11am: Downing Street lobby briefing. |
| As usual, I will be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web, although mostly I will be focusing on Brexit. I plan to publish a summary at lunchtime and another when I wrap up late afternoon. | As usual, I will be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web, although mostly I will be focusing on Brexit. I plan to publish a summary at lunchtime and another when I wrap up late afternoon. |
| You can read all the latest Guardian politics articles here. Here is the Politico Europe roundup of this morning’s political news. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’s top 10 must-reads. | You can read all the latest Guardian politics articles here. Here is the Politico Europe roundup of this morning’s political news. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’s top 10 must-reads. |
| If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow. | If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow. |
| I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone. | I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone. |
| If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. | If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. |