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| Tory deselection threat 'may boost plan to stop no-deal Brexit' | Tory deselection threat 'may boost plan to stop no-deal Brexit' |
| (3 months later) | |
| An expected Commons vote this week to block a no-deal Brexit could be “very tight”, David Gauke has predicted, adding that government threats to deselect Conservative MPs who defy the party on the issue could actually boost rebel numbers. | An expected Commons vote this week to block a no-deal Brexit could be “very tight”, David Gauke has predicted, adding that government threats to deselect Conservative MPs who defy the party on the issue could actually boost rebel numbers. |
| At the start of what could be a tumultuous and fractious week in parliament and politics more widely, the minister-turned-backbench rebel said the threats seemed to show Boris Johnson was intent on forcing a general election. | At the start of what could be a tumultuous and fractious week in parliament and politics more widely, the minister-turned-backbench rebel said the threats seemed to show Boris Johnson was intent on forcing a general election. |
| Gauke said he had written to the attorney general, Geoffrey Cox, and his successor as justice secretary, Robert Buckland, asking for clarification after Michael Gove repeatedly refused to rule out the possibility of the government ignoring any backbench law passed to stop no deal. | Gauke said he had written to the attorney general, Geoffrey Cox, and his successor as justice secretary, Robert Buckland, asking for clarification after Michael Gove repeatedly refused to rule out the possibility of the government ignoring any backbench law passed to stop no deal. |
| “It would be very helpful if the government could clarify that they believe in the rule of law,” Gauke told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme on Monday. | “It would be very helpful if the government could clarify that they believe in the rule of law,” Gauke told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme on Monday. |
| If the UK leaves the EU without a deal it would by default, become a “third country”, with no overarching post-Brexit plan in place and no transition period. The UK would no longer be paying into the EU budget, nor would it hand over the £39bn divorce payment. | |
| The UK would drop out of countless arrangements, pacts and treaties, covering everything from tariffs to the movement of people, foodstuffs, other goods and data, to numerous specific deals on things such as aviation, and policing and security. Without an overall withdrawal agreement each element would need to be agreed. In the immediate aftermath, without a deal the UK would trade with the EU on the default terms of the World Trade Organization (WTO), including tariffs on agricultural goods. | The UK would drop out of countless arrangements, pacts and treaties, covering everything from tariffs to the movement of people, foodstuffs, other goods and data, to numerous specific deals on things such as aviation, and policing and security. Without an overall withdrawal agreement each element would need to be agreed. In the immediate aftermath, without a deal the UK would trade with the EU on the default terms of the World Trade Organization (WTO), including tariffs on agricultural goods. |
| The UK government has already indicated that it will set low or no tariffs on goods coming into the country. This would lower the price of imports – making it harder for British manufacturers to compete with foreign goods. If the UK sets the tariffs to zero on goods coming in from the EU, under WTO “most favoured nation” rules it must also offer the same zero tariffs to other countries. | The UK government has already indicated that it will set low or no tariffs on goods coming into the country. This would lower the price of imports – making it harder for British manufacturers to compete with foreign goods. If the UK sets the tariffs to zero on goods coming in from the EU, under WTO “most favoured nation” rules it must also offer the same zero tariffs to other countries. |
| WTO rules only cover goods – they do not apply to financial services, a significant part of the UK’s economy. Trading under WTO rules will also require border checks, which could cause delays at ports, and a severe challenge to the peace process in Ireland without alternative arrangements in place to avoid a hard border. | WTO rules only cover goods – they do not apply to financial services, a significant part of the UK’s economy. Trading under WTO rules will also require border checks, which could cause delays at ports, and a severe challenge to the peace process in Ireland without alternative arrangements in place to avoid a hard border. |
| Some no-deal supporters have claimed that the UK can use article XXIV of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (Gatt) to force the EU to accept a period of up to 10 years where there are no tariffs while a free trade agreement is negotiated. However, the UK cannot invoke article XXIV unilaterally – the EU would have to agree to it. In previous cases where the article has been used, the two sides had a deal in place, and it has never been used to replicate something of the scale and complexity of the EU and the UK’s trading relationship. | |
| The director general of the WTO, Roberto Azevêdo, has told Prospect magazine that “in simple factual terms in this scenario, you could expect to see the application of tariffs between the UK and EU where currently there are none”. | The director general of the WTO, Roberto Azevêdo, has told Prospect magazine that “in simple factual terms in this scenario, you could expect to see the application of tariffs between the UK and EU where currently there are none”. |
| Until some agreements are in place, a no-deal scenario will place extra overheads on UK businesses – eg the current government advice is that all drivers, including lorries and commercial vehicles, will require extra documentation to be able to drive in Europeif there is no deal. Those arguing for a “managed” no deal envisage that a range of smaller, sector-by-sector, bilateral agreements could be quickly put into place as mutual self-interest between the UK and EU to avoid introducing or to rapidly remove this kind of bureaucracy. | |
| Martin Belam | Martin Belam |
| A proposed bill drawn up by a cross-party group of backbench rebels could emerge as early as Monday. When parliament resumes on Tuesday the aim is to push it through parliament before the Commons is suspended for a five-week break imposed by the prime minister. | A proposed bill drawn up by a cross-party group of backbench rebels could emerge as early as Monday. When parliament resumes on Tuesday the aim is to push it through parliament before the Commons is suspended for a five-week break imposed by the prime minister. |
| Gauke declined to say what the bill could seek to achieve. But another leading rebel, the former Tory MP Nick Boles, said a likely consensus plan would be to delay Brexit only by a couple of months from 31 October, to allow enough time for a deal to be reached but not enough time for a second referendum. | Gauke declined to say what the bill could seek to achieve. But another leading rebel, the former Tory MP Nick Boles, said a likely consensus plan would be to delay Brexit only by a couple of months from 31 October, to allow enough time for a deal to be reached but not enough time for a second referendum. |
| The stakes for would-be Tory rebels increased markedly at the weekend when Downing Street confirmed government MPs who backed the no-deal blocking measure could lose the party whip, meaning they would be unable to stand again for the party in the next election. | The stakes for would-be Tory rebels increased markedly at the weekend when Downing Street confirmed government MPs who backed the no-deal blocking measure could lose the party whip, meaning they would be unable to stand again for the party in the next election. |
| The education secretary and former chief whip, Gavin Williamson, denied this was a hypocritical move by Johnson given so many current cabinet ministers defied Theresa May over her Brexit plans. | The education secretary and former chief whip, Gavin Williamson, denied this was a hypocritical move by Johnson given so many current cabinet ministers defied Theresa May over her Brexit plans. |
| “What we want to see is all Conservative MPs rallying behind him this week,” Williamson told BBC1’s Breakfast programme. Asked why he as chief whip had not made similar threats, he said: “Everyone has a different approach.” | “What we want to see is all Conservative MPs rallying behind him this week,” Williamson told BBC1’s Breakfast programme. Asked why he as chief whip had not made similar threats, he said: “Everyone has a different approach.” |
| Like Gove, Williamson refused to confirm the government would recognise a backbench law on no deal: “Every government adheres to the law, every government stands by the law, but it’s perfectly normal to look at how any form of new legislation would impact on the negotiations.” | Like Gove, Williamson refused to confirm the government would recognise a backbench law on no deal: “Every government adheres to the law, every government stands by the law, but it’s perfectly normal to look at how any form of new legislation would impact on the negotiations.” |
| Gauke said he had not been contacted by any whips over the deselection threat: “It’s obviously a particularly confrontational approach, and I think designed to realign the Conservative party, to transform the Conservative party very much in the direction of a Brexit party.” | Gauke said he had not been contacted by any whips over the deselection threat: “It’s obviously a particularly confrontational approach, and I think designed to realign the Conservative party, to transform the Conservative party very much in the direction of a Brexit party.” |
| He said No 10 seemed to be “almost goading” rebels into action. “The strategy, to be honest, is to lose this week and then seek a general election, having removed those of us who are not against leaving the European Union, but believe we should do so with a deal.” | He said No 10 seemed to be “almost goading” rebels into action. “The strategy, to be honest, is to lose this week and then seek a general election, having removed those of us who are not against leaving the European Union, but believe we should do so with a deal.” |
| Asked whether the no-deal blocking bill would pass, Gauke said: “I don’t know. The numbers may well be very tight.” | Asked whether the no-deal blocking bill would pass, Gauke said: “I don’t know. The numbers may well be very tight.” |
| However, he argued, the confrontational tactics by Johnson and his chief of staff could embolden rebels: “I think there’s quite a lot of people who have reacted to this as being very provocative. And if that is the direction that Dominic Cummings – who seems to be very influential here, but as far as I am aware is not even a member of the Conservative party – wishes to take the Conservative party then it is a point at which we have to dig in.” | However, he argued, the confrontational tactics by Johnson and his chief of staff could embolden rebels: “I think there’s quite a lot of people who have reacted to this as being very provocative. And if that is the direction that Dominic Cummings – who seems to be very influential here, but as far as I am aware is not even a member of the Conservative party – wishes to take the Conservative party then it is a point at which we have to dig in.” |
| Gauke said he had never rebelled in his 14 years as a Tory MP, but urged others to back the plan: “In the end, if we are in a privileged position to be able to influence things as MPs, and if we don’t step in to try to prevent no deal, we will be complicit in something that would be very damaging for this country.” | Gauke said he had never rebelled in his 14 years as a Tory MP, but urged others to back the plan: “In the end, if we are in a privileged position to be able to influence things as MPs, and if we don’t step in to try to prevent no deal, we will be complicit in something that would be very damaging for this country.” |
| Speaking earlier on Today, Boles said the rebel bill would set out the requirement for a Brexit delay if, by a certain date in October, Johnson had not passed a deal through parliament or won the consent of the Commons for no deal. | Speaking earlier on Today, Boles said the rebel bill would set out the requirement for a Brexit delay if, by a certain date in October, Johnson had not passed a deal through parliament or won the consent of the Commons for no deal. |
| He said: “Not a very long extension, a few more months, as we all agree this has been going on long enough. But long enough for a revised deal to be negotiated and put through parliament, which frankly there is no time for before 31 October. Not long enough, crucially, for a referendum, so it is not an attempt to somehow sneak a second referendum in.” | He said: “Not a very long extension, a few more months, as we all agree this has been going on long enough. But long enough for a revised deal to be negotiated and put through parliament, which frankly there is no time for before 31 October. Not long enough, crucially, for a referendum, so it is not an attempt to somehow sneak a second referendum in.” |
| Boles said the “hard right” had taken over his former party. “The Conservative party has fallen prey to an almost religious obsession with the hardest form of Brexit, which is obviously a Brexit with no deal. If one needed any confirmation of that, it came before today, with Ruth Davidson’s resignation.” | Boles said the “hard right” had taken over his former party. “The Conservative party has fallen prey to an almost religious obsession with the hardest form of Brexit, which is obviously a Brexit with no deal. If one needed any confirmation of that, it came before today, with Ruth Davidson’s resignation.” |
| There has been parallel speculation about whether Johnson could seek to force a pre-Brexit general election, and if so whether Labour should vote in favour of this, something Tony Blair has called an “elephant trap” for the party. | There has been parallel speculation about whether Johnson could seek to force a pre-Brexit general election, and if so whether Labour should vote in favour of this, something Tony Blair has called an “elephant trap” for the party. |
| The shadow business secretary, Rebecca Long-Bailey, told Today she understood the reasons for the former Labour leader’s warning, but declined to be drawn on what the party might do. | The shadow business secretary, Rebecca Long-Bailey, told Today she understood the reasons for the former Labour leader’s warning, but declined to be drawn on what the party might do. |
| She said: “I think we have a priority this week that we can focus everybody’s minds across parliament on, and that’s stopping no deal. But as an opposition, of course we want every opportunity to get rid of this government.” | She said: “I think we have a priority this week that we can focus everybody’s minds across parliament on, and that’s stopping no deal. But as an opposition, of course we want every opportunity to get rid of this government.” |
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