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Britain’s Conservatives Are on the Brink of Civil War Britain’s Conservatives Are on the Brink of Civil War
(about 1 hour later)
LONDON — They have been dubbed the Conservative rebels, a group of renegade lawmakers willing to risk their careers to defy their newly chosen leader, Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and hobble his premiership over their clashing views on Brexit. LONDON — They have been dubbed the Conservative rebels, a group of renegade lawmakers willing to risk their careers to defy their newly chosen leader, Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and hobble his leadership over their clashing views on Brexit.
But behind all the talk of revolutionary ardor and mutinous tactics is an unlikely group of insurrectionists: a band of starchy grandees of Tory politics that includes Winston Churchill’s grandson and a 45-year party veteran and ex-chancellor so colorless that he earned the nickname “Spreadsheet Phil.” But behind all the talk of revolutionary ardor and mutinous tactics is an unlikely group of insurrectionists — a band of starchy grandees of Tory politics that includes Winston Churchill’s grandson and a 45-year party veteran and ex-chancellor so colorless that he earned the nickname “Spreadsheet Phil.” Running the government only weeks ago, they now flout it from the sidelines.
They believe Mr. Johnson, in his zeal for pulling Britain out of the European Union without a deal, is not only risking severe damage to the British economy but also tearing their party apart, setting fire to their vision of a big-tent party with priorities beyond Brexit. They believe that Mr. Johnson, in his zeal for pulling Britain out of the European Union without a deal, is risking severe damage to the British economy. But they also believe that he is tearing the Conservatives apart, setting fire to their vision of a big-tent party with priorities beyond Brexit.
In setting aside their usual caution and threatening to rip the heart out of Mr. Johnson’s Brexit plans on Tuesday night, they are offering perhaps the clearest indication yet that the party, squabbling for decades over Europe, is now on the brink of a civil war. In setting aside their usual caution and threatening to rip the heart out of Mr. Johnson’s Brexit plans on Tuesday night, they are offering perhaps the clearest indication yet that the party, squabbling for decades over Europe, is on the brink of a civil war.
The lawmakers would be disobeying a so-called three-line whip — the strongest possible warning from the party — to help opposition Labour lawmakers wrench control of the legislative business in Parliament from Mr. Johnson. That would clear the path for a law on Wednesday that would stop Britain from leaving the European Union without a deal governing future relations. The lawmakers would be disobeying a the strongest possible warning from their party to help opposition Labour lawmakers wrench control of the legislative business in Parliament from Mr. Johnson. That would clear the path for a law on Wednesday to stop Britain from leaving the European Union without a deal governing future relations.
Mr. Johnson sees such a law as so damaging to his negotiating strategy that his team has promised to call a snap general election if it passes. As for the rebels, Mr. Johnson’s team has threatened to kick them out of the party and bar them from running in the next election if they vote against the government. Mr. Johnson sees such a law as so damaging to his negotiating strategy on getting Britain out of the bloc that his team has promised to call a snap general election if it passes.
The conflict could, in an instant, hollow out the Conservative Party as it has existed for decades, with many of the former insiders banished and the one-time Brexit rebels — those who bitterly opposed Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement, among them Mr. Johnson — running things. As for the re bels, Mr. Johnson’s team has threatened to kick them out of the party and bar them from running in the next election if they vote against the government.
What remains would likely be a narrower, more uniform party that trades its moderate voters for those on the right wing of the debate over Europe. The conflict could, in an instant, hollow out the world’s oldest and most successful political party. Former insiders would be banished and pro-Brexit lawmakers — once on the fringes, and now at the heart of Mr. Johnson’s government — would tighten their grip on the party.
“There’s this idea that it always does what it needs to do to hold onto power,” Alan Wager, a research associate at The U.K. in a Changing Europe, a research institute, said about the Conservative party. “Now it seems to be driven principally by an ideological zeal to create a homogeneous, pro-Brexit party.” What remains, moderates fear, will be a narrow, more homogeneous party that sacrifices its long-term electoral prospects in pursuit of a hard split from Europe. A third of Conservative voters said in recent YouGov polling that leaving the European Union without a deal would be unacceptable.
The break could be pivotal. Already on Tuesday the party lost one Conservative lawmaker, Phillip Lee, who crossed the House of Commons to the benches opposite Mr. Johnson to take his seat as a lawmaker for the Liberal Democrats, a centrist, anti-Brexit party. “It’s not clear there’s a route back toward a more center-right party from here,” said Alan Wager, a research associate at The U.K. in a Changing Europe, a research institute.
“It’s not clear there’s a route back toward a more center-right party from here,” Mr. Wager said. Mr. Johnson is gambling that the party will instead win over new pro-Brexit voters from the Labour heartlands in the north of England. But his government is already holding on by a thread.
The maneuvering on Tuesday would have been unimaginable only months ago. The rebels were then holding the reins of power. On Tuesday the party lost one Conservative lawmaker, Phillip Lee, who crossed the House of Commons to the benches opposite Mr. Johnson to join the Liberal Democrats, a centrist, anti-Brexit party.
Philip Hammond, the chancellor known as “Spreadsheet Phil,” was one of the architects of Mrs. May’s Brexit plan. Some of her most loyal backers, Rory Stewart, then the international development secretary, and David Gauke, the justice secretary, both said they would vote against Mr. Johnson on Tuesday. The maneuvering on Tuesday reversed the two flanks of the Tory Party.
Instead, it was the Brexiteers, people like Jacob Rees-Mogg, now the leader of the House of Commons, who were playing the part of rebels. They voted incessantly against Mrs. May’s deal and savaged her plans in public. But that changed in an instant when Mr. Johnson took power. Mr. Johnson’s government is stocked with Brexiteers, like Jacob Rees-Mogg, the leader of the House of Commons. This group was playing the part of rebel when Theresa May was prime minister. They voted incessantly against Mrs. May’s proposed deal for Brexit and savaged her plans in public.
“It’s quite extraordinary that we’ve had such a turnaround from the start of the year, when the rebels were the extreme Brexiteers,” said Nigel Fletcher, a teaching fellow in politics at King’s College London and a local councilor for the Conservative Party. That changed in an instant when Mr. Johnson took power. Senior ministers in Mrs. May’s more moderate government, like Philip Hammond, the chancellor known as “Spreadsheet Phil,” took up the part of spoiler to Mr. Johnson.
“Those who are now the rebels are really the most establishment of figures. People like Philip Hammond wouldn’t be considered a maverick at any other time. I think that’s something that has given people pause for thought, because these are not people who’ve made a career out of being provocative for its own sake.” Mr. Hammond was joined by Rory Stewart, a former international development secretary, and David Gauke, a former justice secretary, who were some of Mrs. May’s most loyal supporters.
“It’s quite extraordinary that we’ve had such a turnaround from the start of the year, when the rebels were the extreme Brexiteers,” said Nigel Fletcher, a teaching fellow in politics at King’s College London and a local councilor for the Conservatives.
“Those who are now the rebels are really the most establishment of figures,” Mr. Fletcher said. “People like Philip Hammond wouldn’t be considered a maverick at any other time. I think that’s something that has given people pause for thought, because these are not people who’ve made a career out of being provocative for its own sake.”
The rebel lawmakers seemed furious on Tuesday. In another era, they would have been the past and future of the Conservatives, with lawmakers like Nicholas Soames, Churchill’s 71-year-old grandson, standing alongside Mr. Stewart, a rising star among younger voters who walks the country filming his conversations with people.
But they said the party was now being set adrift by “entryists,” right-wing newcomers who have rushed into the Conservative fold to push it in a more extreme direction on Brexit. Mr. Hammond accused Dominic Cummings, Mr. Johnson’s most senior adviser, of not being a Conservative at all.
“This is my party — I’ve been a member of this party for 45 years,” Mr. Hammond said in a radio interview on Tuesday morning, brimming with anger. “I’m going to defend my party against incomers, entryists, who are trying to turn it from a broad church into a narrow faction.”
Mr. Lee, the lawmaker who defected to the Liberal Democrats, said he hardly recognized the Conservatives.
“Sadly, the Brexit process has helped to transform this once great party into something more akin to a narrow faction, where an individual’s ‘conservatism’ is measured by how recklessly one wishes to leave the European Union,” he wrote.
The Conservative rebels by and large support pulling Britain out of Europe, but with a deal to spell out and manage future relations. That alone has made some of them targets, with a rabid grass roots campaign of party members seeking to punish lawmakers not supportive of a no-deal Brexit.
For some of those members, Mr. Johnson’s threat to expel the rebels was long overdue.
“At some point, you have to draw a line in the sand,” said John Rawlins, a former Conservative member who backed an effort to expel Mr. Gauke, one of the rebels, from his seat. “As far as I’m concerned, anyone who actively works against the queen’s government, it’s treason.”
Despite the animosity, many moderate Conservative lawmakers were slow to back a rebellion against Mr. Johnson, wanting to give him a chance to strike a new deal. But they saw few signs of progress. And the mood swung when Mr. Johnson took the extraordinary step of suspending Parliament to push through his Brexit plans.
“Boris has now broken some of the rules,” Mr. Wager said. “That’s what gives someone like Nicholas Soames license to do it, because the unwritten rules of British politics are being rewritten by Boris, and that creates a counterreaction.”
Expelling Conservative rebels would be another draconian move by Mr. Johnson, one that was a step too far even for some of the grass roots Conservative members who support him, like John Strafford, a leading advocate for Conservative members. He said it was “totally wrong that so much power can be put in the hands of one person.”
Tuesday night’s vote was a sea change for a party that has been haggling over membership in the European Union for decades. Moderate lawmakers have tended to buckle in the past to the views of their more ardent, anti-Europe colleagues in the interest of holding the party together. They agreed, for instance, to hold a referendum in the first place. But no longer.
“For about 30 years, they’ve had these arguments about Europe, where each time these sort of moderate political figures have given in to the euroskeptics,” Mr. Wager said. “But to propose a no-deal shows the fight is permanently lost within the Conservative Party. There’s nothing else to lose.”