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| Do voters support a no-deal Brexit? | |
| (about 7 hours later) | |
| Boris Johnson is insistent - if a new deal on the terms of Brexit is not agreed with the EU by the end of October, the UK should be prepared to leave without a deal. | Boris Johnson is insistent - if a new deal on the terms of Brexit is not agreed with the EU by the end of October, the UK should be prepared to leave without a deal. |
| But attempts are being made by MPs to pass legislation that would outlaw a no-deal Brexit. Both sides claim voters support their point of view. | But attempts are being made by MPs to pass legislation that would outlaw a no-deal Brexit. Both sides claim voters support their point of view. |
| So, what is the evidence of the polls? | So, what is the evidence of the polls? |
| Support for no-deal? | Support for no-deal? |
| Within the past two months, four polls have asked people if they are for or against leaving without a deal. | Within the past two months, four polls have asked people if they are for or against leaving without a deal. |
| Despite differences in the wording of the questions, the results are remarkably consistent. | Despite differences in the wording of the questions, the results are remarkably consistent. |
| Slightly more people say they are opposed to leaving without a deal than state they are in favour. | Slightly more people say they are opposed to leaving without a deal than state they are in favour. |
| However, there is a sharp difference between Remain and Leave voters. | However, there is a sharp difference between Remain and Leave voters. |
| Whereas about three out of four of those who voted Remain in 2016 say they are opposed to leaving without a deal, the position among Leave voters is almost exactly the reverse. | Whereas about three out of four of those who voted Remain in 2016 say they are opposed to leaving without a deal, the position among Leave voters is almost exactly the reverse. |
| The debate divides the country in much the same way as the 2016 referendum did. At that time, 52% voted Leave and 48% Remain. | The debate divides the country in much the same way as the 2016 referendum did. At that time, 52% voted Leave and 48% Remain. |
| So, why do the polls suggest more people oppose than support leaving without a deal? | So, why do the polls suggest more people oppose than support leaving without a deal? |
| The answer lies in the views of those who did not vote three years ago. Only about one in five (21%) of non-voters support leaving without a deal, while twice as many (43%) are opposed. | The answer lies in the views of those who did not vote three years ago. Only about one in five (21%) of non-voters support leaving without a deal, while twice as many (43%) are opposed. |
| An acceptable compromise? | An acceptable compromise? |
| Still, the government's policy is not to leave the EU without a deal whatever the circumstances. Rather, it only proposes doing so if a satisfactory deal is not obtained by the end of October. | Still, the government's policy is not to leave the EU without a deal whatever the circumstances. Rather, it only proposes doing so if a satisfactory deal is not obtained by the end of October. |
| Is this reflected in how voters approach the prospect of no deal? | Is this reflected in how voters approach the prospect of no deal? |
| A first indication comes from the answers YouGov obtained when they asked a more detailed question about "leaving the European Union without any deal". | A first indication comes from the answers YouGov obtained when they asked a more detailed question about "leaving the European Union without any deal". |
| People were asked not only if that would be a good outcome or a bad outcome, but also whether it would be "an acceptable compromise". | People were asked not only if that would be a good outcome or a bad outcome, but also whether it would be "an acceptable compromise". |
| Eight out of 10 Remain supporters claim that a no-deal Brexit would be a bad outcome. This is in line with the 76% who say they are against leaving the EU without a deal, when offered a straight choice between support and oppose. | Eight out of 10 Remain supporters claim that a no-deal Brexit would be a bad outcome. This is in line with the 76% who say they are against leaving the EU without a deal, when offered a straight choice between support and oppose. |
| However, a different story emerges among Leave voters. | However, a different story emerges among Leave voters. |
| The proportion who say that leaving without a deal would be a good outcome is 46%. This is well below the 73% who say they back leaving the EU without a deal, when offered a straight choice. | The proportion who say that leaving without a deal would be a good outcome is 46%. This is well below the 73% who say they back leaving the EU without a deal, when offered a straight choice. |
| Why the difference? | Why the difference? |
| About a quarter (27%) of Leave voters prefer to say a no-deal Brexit would be an "acceptable compromise", rather than a "good outcome". | About a quarter (27%) of Leave voters prefer to say a no-deal Brexit would be an "acceptable compromise", rather than a "good outcome". |
| Here, perhaps, is a sign that leaving without a deal is, for some Leave voters, something they might ultimately be willing to back, rather than an outcome they would most like to happen. | Here, perhaps, is a sign that leaving without a deal is, for some Leave voters, something they might ultimately be willing to back, rather than an outcome they would most like to happen. |
| What if a deal was possible? | What if a deal was possible? |
| Further evidence in this direction emerges when voters are asked which Brexit outcome they prefer. | Further evidence in this direction emerges when voters are asked which Brexit outcome they prefer. |
| In June, YouGov asked people to place four possibilities in order of preference: | In June, YouGov asked people to place four possibilities in order of preference: |
| While 59% of Leave voters said that leaving without a deal was their first preference, 33% preferred one of the two possible deals. | While 59% of Leave voters said that leaving without a deal was their first preference, 33% preferred one of the two possible deals. |
| Very similar results were found by Kantar when it put much the same set of options before voters. | Very similar results were found by Kantar when it put much the same set of options before voters. |
| The willingness of some voters to back leaving without a deal might well depend on whether or not they think the government could in fact have secured an acceptable deal - or whether the fault lies with the EU. | The willingness of some voters to back leaving without a deal might well depend on whether or not they think the government could in fact have secured an acceptable deal - or whether the fault lies with the EU. |
| When ORB asked whether the UK should leave without a deal, "if the EU is unwilling to reopen negotiations on the withdrawal agreement", supporters (46%) outnumbered opponents (39%). | When ORB asked whether the UK should leave without a deal, "if the EU is unwilling to reopen negotiations on the withdrawal agreement", supporters (46%) outnumbered opponents (39%). |
| In contrast, when Ipsos MORI asked people whether they would support leaving without a deal, "if the UK and the EU cannot agree a deal on the terms of the UK's departure from the EU by October", as many as 50% said they were opposed and only 38% in favour. | In contrast, when Ipsos MORI asked people whether they would support leaving without a deal, "if the UK and the EU cannot agree a deal on the terms of the UK's departure from the EU by October", as many as 50% said they were opposed and only 38% in favour. |
| Persuading Remain supporters of the necessity of a no-deal Brexit looks likely to be a tall order. | Persuading Remain supporters of the necessity of a no-deal Brexit looks likely to be a tall order. |
| But Leave supporters may well back the idea if they are persuaded that Brussels is to blame. | But Leave supporters may well back the idea if they are persuaded that Brussels is to blame. |
| About this piece | About this piece |
| This analysis piece was commissioned by the BBC from an expert working for an outside organisation. | This analysis piece was commissioned by the BBC from an expert working for an outside organisation. |
| Further details of the research on which it is based are available here. | Further details of the research on which it is based are available here. |
| Sir John Curtice is professor of politics at Strathclyde University, and senior fellow at NatCen Social Research and The UK in a Changing Europe. | Sir John Curtice is professor of politics at Strathclyde University, and senior fellow at NatCen Social Research and The UK in a Changing Europe. |
| Edited by Duncan Walker | Edited by Duncan Walker |
| Charts by David Brown | Charts by David Brown |
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