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Could a no-deal Brexit still happen on 31 October? Can a no-deal Brexit still happen?
(17 days later)
Parliament has passed a law that aims to block the UK leaving the EU without a deal on 31 October. MPs have returned to Westminster 19 days earlier than expected after the Supreme Court ruled that the suspension of Parliament was "unlawful".
But it does not completely rule out a Halloween no-deal Brexit. But could a no-deal Brexit still happen on 31 October?
MPs vote for no-deal Brexit extension law
Under the act - introduced as a bill by Labour MP Hilary Benn - Boris Johnson might have to request a Brexit extension on 19 October, pushing the deadline back to 31 January 2020. Before Parliament was suspended MPs passed a new law - introduced by Labour's Hilary Benn - designed to stop Boris Johnson pushing through a no-deal Brexit on 31 October.
But there are two scenarios in which he would not have to do this: Under the law, MPs Mr Johnson is required to request a three-month Brexit delay by 19 October.
But - as with everything in politics at the moment - it's not as simple as that.
There are two scenarios in which Mr Johnson would not have to request an extension:
In either of these scenarios, Mr Benn's law would not force any Brexit extension to be requested.In either of these scenarios, Mr Benn's law would not force any Brexit extension to be requested.
Could the government ignore the law?Could the government ignore the law?
The law states that it is the prime minister himself who would have to request an extension directly to the president of the European Council.The law states that it is the prime minister himself who would have to request an extension directly to the president of the European Council.
It even includes the exact wording of the letter.It even includes the exact wording of the letter.
So, theoretically, Mr Johnson could refuse to write or sign that letter. But that would almost certainly lead to court action. So, theoretically, Mr Johnson could refuse to write or sign that letter. But that would almost certainly lead to more court action.
There have been suggestions that Mr Johnson could follow the law by sending the letter - but send another letter setting out his political policy to leave on 31 October.There have been suggestions that Mr Johnson could follow the law by sending the letter - but send another letter setting out his political policy to leave on 31 October.
Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said at the weekend the government would "adhere to the law" but "test to the limit what it actually lawfully requires". It is only a request
Could the government scrap the law? Even if Mr Johnson agrees to write the letter, it would still have to be accepted by all of the other EU governments.
With the current make-up of the House of Commons, the government would have little chance of repealing the new law. It is possible that other European leaders are not convinced that they should grant the UK another delay - particularly if they think the extra time is not used for the right purpose.
But this could change if there is a general election before 19 October. If the EU agrees to an extension but to a date other than 31 January 2020, the UK would need to agree to this, unless MPs vote against the proposal.
If an election returned a House of Commons with a majority for Mr Johnson, he could potentially scrap the law and carry on without requesting an extension. In this unlikely scenario - MPs rejecting an alternative extension - the UK could be left on course towards a no-deal Brexit on 31 October.
Could the EU refuse? What about an election?
Regardless of what UK law says, any extension to Brexit has to be agreed to by all the other 27 members of the EU. Some MPs believe the only way to ensure a no-deal Brexit is avoided is to get a new prime minister.
It is possible that other European leaders are not convinced that they should grant the UK another delay. Normally, the easiest way to do this is through a general election.
French President Emmanuel Macron has been seen as a potential hurdle to any further Brexit delay. But Parliament rejected Mr Johnson's offer of an early election on two occasions. The MPs that voted against the against were worried the PM would move the day of the election to after 31 October, forcing a no-deal Brexit in the process.
Mr Johnson could also try to avoid an extension by persuading a member state to refuse his request. It is now too late to hold an election before the 31 October, because it takes at least 5 weeks to prepare one. But the government has indicated it may ask MPs for their approval again soon.
What if the EU asks for a different date? One suggestion from Attorney General Geoffrey Cox was to pass a one-line bill in order to set the day of an election in stone before 31 October. But this would require MPs to change the rules on how elections are called and organised.
The new law sets the length of any further extension to three months. An alternative government?
But if the other EU states respond with a different date, Mr Johnson would be forced to accept it unless MPs vote to reject it within two days. If the Labour Party does not want to agree to an election before a no-deal Brexit is off the table, there is still another option: a so-called "government of national unity".
This was a point of controversy during the passage of the bill, because some MPs and peers argued it could effectively force the UK to agree to whatever the EU asks for. If Parliament was to back a vote of no confidence in the government, MPs would have 14 days to try and form a government that has the support of a Commons majority.
If MPs were to reject an alternative date, the UK could end up leaving without a deal. This could be a cross-party collection of MPs committed to blocking a no-deal Brexit. Theoretically, a new government could form for the sole purpose of requesting an extension to Brexit, before triggering an election.
The main obstacle here is party politics: Labour doesn't want to support any government that does not have Jeremy Corbyn at its head. However, the Liberal Democrats' leader, Jo Swinson, has said her party won't support a government that has Mr Corbyn at its head.
Could no deal happen in the future?Could no deal happen in the future?
The new law tries to avoid a no-deal Brexit on 31 October, but it can't rule out a no-deal Brexit in the future. Remember, the options open to MPs to force an extension aim to avoid a no-deal Brexit on 31 October, but they can't rule out a no-deal Brexit in the future.
There are only two ways to do that: pass and implement a withdrawal deal or cancel Brexit altogether.There are only two ways to do that: pass and implement a withdrawal deal or cancel Brexit altogether.