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| Rattled Trump claims polls are 'fixed' after approval rating slump – live | |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| Trump’s commerce secretary, Wilbur Ross, is facing calls for his resignation after he reportedly threatened firings at the NOAA unless the agency backed up the president’s false claim about Hurricane Dorian hitting Alabama. | |
| The Guardian’s Ed Pilkington reports: | |
| The head of the environmental group the Sierra Club, Michael Brune, called on Ross to resign to ‘maintain the dignity of the federal government’. | |
| Brune called the intervention a ‘shameless abuse of power’ that could have ‘devastating results now and in the future’. Democratic congress members Don Beyer from Virginia and Paul Tonko from New York also called on Ross to step down. | |
| And late on Monday, the New York Times amended its story to report that the commerce department’s own Office of Inspector General has launched an inquiry into that official statement and whether it breached departmental rules. | |
| That adds to an investigation initiated on Sunday by the Noaa’s acting chief scientist, Craig McLean. He sent an email to colleagues announcing that he was looking into how the agency had come to disavow its own experts in backing Trump’s inaccurate claim. | |
| Trump has gone even further, claiming that many polls are “fixed, or worked in such a way that a certain candidate will look good or bad.” | |
| One of the greatest and most powerful weapons used by the Fake and Corrupt News Media is the phony Polling Information they put out. Many of these polls are fixed, or worked in such a way that a certain candidate will look good or bad. Internal polling looks great, the best ever! | |
| This accusation seems, to this blog, entirely baseless. At least when it comes to 2016 national polls, most of them were pretty close to the actual result. | |
| For example, the Washington Post/ABC News poll (the initial source of Trump’s ire today) predicted just before Election Day 2016 that Hillary Clinton would win the popular vote by 4 points. She ended up winning it by 2 points but lost the Electoral College and the presidency along with it. | |
| Of course, another one of Trump’s favorite baseless claims is that Clinton only won the popular vote because of voter fraud in blue states like California. If that were the case (and it’s not), she really should have sent some of those fake California voters to Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. It could have given her the White House. | |
| So apparently Trump does occasionally read the “Amazon Washington Post.” The president slammed the newspaper, along with ABC News, for publishing a poll showing his approval rating down 6 points since June. | So apparently Trump does occasionally read the “Amazon Washington Post.” The president slammed the newspaper, along with ABC News, for publishing a poll showing his approval rating down 6 points since June. |
| ABC/Washington Post Poll was the worst and most inaccurate poll of any taken prior to the 2016 Election. When my lawyers protested, they took a 12 point down and brought it to almost even by Election Day. It was a Fake Poll by two very bad and dangerous media outlets. Sad! | ABC/Washington Post Poll was the worst and most inaccurate poll of any taken prior to the 2016 Election. When my lawyers protested, they took a 12 point down and brought it to almost even by Election Day. It was a Fake Poll by two very bad and dangerous media outlets. Sad! |
| This gives the blog a chance to revisit those numbers. According to the poll, Trump’s approval has sunk to 38 percent amid intensifying fears about the economy. Six in 10 Americans now expect a recession to occur in the next year. | This gives the blog a chance to revisit those numbers. According to the poll, Trump’s approval has sunk to 38 percent amid intensifying fears about the economy. Six in 10 Americans now expect a recession to occur in the next year. |
| It’s understandable why Trump would want to distance himself from those numbers, particularly given that he is counting on a strong economy to win re-election. | It’s understandable why Trump would want to distance himself from those numbers, particularly given that he is counting on a strong economy to win re-election. |
| But the president’s attack on the polling methodology seems unfounded. The polling and analysis website FiveThirtyEight gives Washington Post/ABC News polls a rating of “A+,” and national polls in 2016 were not far off from the actual result of Trump losing the popular vote. | But the president’s attack on the polling methodology seems unfounded. The polling and analysis website FiveThirtyEight gives Washington Post/ABC News polls a rating of “A+,” and national polls in 2016 were not far off from the actual result of Trump losing the popular vote. |
| More details are coming to light about the high-level source reportedly extracted from the Russian government in 2017, partly over concerns that the person’s identity may be revealed by Trump or his administration. | More details are coming to light about the high-level source reportedly extracted from the Russian government in 2017, partly over concerns that the person’s identity may be revealed by Trump or his administration. |
| The New York Times has now reported the source provided secrets to the US for decades and was a key informant on Russia’s 2016 election interference. But the Times threw a bit of cold water on the idea that Trump was one of the reasons for the extraction. From the paper’s front-page report: | The New York Times has now reported the source provided secrets to the US for decades and was a key informant on Russia’s 2016 election interference. But the Times threw a bit of cold water on the idea that Trump was one of the reasons for the extraction. From the paper’s front-page report: |
| As American officials began to realize that Russia was trying to sabotage the 2016 presidential election, the informant became one of the C.I.A.’s most important — and highly protected — assets. But when intelligence officials revealed the severity of Russia’s election interference with unusual detail later that year, the news media picked up on details about the C.I.A.’s Kremlin sources. | As American officials began to realize that Russia was trying to sabotage the 2016 presidential election, the informant became one of the C.I.A.’s most important — and highly protected — assets. But when intelligence officials revealed the severity of Russia’s election interference with unusual detail later that year, the news media picked up on details about the C.I.A.’s Kremlin sources. |
| C.I.A. officials worried about safety made the arduous decision in late 2016 to offer to extract the source from Russia. The situation grew more tense when the informant at first refused, citing family concerns — prompting consternation at C.I.A. headquarters and sowing doubts among some American counterintelligence officials about the informant’s trustworthiness. But the C.I.A. pressed again months later after more media inquiries. This time, the informant agreed. ... | C.I.A. officials worried about safety made the arduous decision in late 2016 to offer to extract the source from Russia. The situation grew more tense when the informant at first refused, citing family concerns — prompting consternation at C.I.A. headquarters and sowing doubts among some American counterintelligence officials about the informant’s trustworthiness. But the C.I.A. pressed again months later after more media inquiries. This time, the informant agreed. ... |
| The decision to extract the informant was driven ‘in part’ because of concerns that Mr. Trump and his administration had mishandled delicate intelligence, CNN reported. But former intelligence officials said there was no public evidence that Mr. Trump directly endangered the source, and other current American officials insisted that media scrutiny of the agency’s sources alone was the impetus for the extraction. | The decision to extract the informant was driven ‘in part’ because of concerns that Mr. Trump and his administration had mishandled delicate intelligence, CNN reported. But former intelligence officials said there was no public evidence that Mr. Trump directly endangered the source, and other current American officials insisted that media scrutiny of the agency’s sources alone was the impetus for the extraction. |
| Trump has sent out repeated Twitter endorsements for Dan Bishop, the Republican running in North Carolina’s special congressional race. The latest one came about 20 minutes ago. | Trump has sent out repeated Twitter endorsements for Dan Bishop, the Republican running in North Carolina’s special congressional race. The latest one came about 20 minutes ago. |
| NORTH CAROLINA, VOTE FOR DAN BISHOP TODAY. WE NEED HIM BADLY IN WASHINGTON! | NORTH CAROLINA, VOTE FOR DAN BISHOP TODAY. WE NEED HIM BADLY IN WASHINGTON! |
| Of course, if Bishop loses, this blog would bet good money that Trump will drop him as quickly as it takes to write out 280 characters. | Of course, if Bishop loses, this blog would bet good money that Trump will drop him as quickly as it takes to write out 280 characters. |
| The race is being read as a sign of Trump’s resilience in areas like North Carolina’s Ninth Congressional District, which covers some of the southeastern suburbs of Charlotte. The 2018 midterms showed Republicans were losing support in those parts of the country, and today could indicate whether the party has stopped the bleeding. | The race is being read as a sign of Trump’s resilience in areas like North Carolina’s Ninth Congressional District, which covers some of the southeastern suburbs of Charlotte. The 2018 midterms showed Republicans were losing support in those parts of the country, and today could indicate whether the party has stopped the bleeding. |
| Regardless of the winner, the victorious side will almost certainly rush to trumpet the results as a reflection of Trump’s presidency as the losing team downplays the race as just one district of many that could go the other way next year. | Regardless of the winner, the victorious side will almost certainly rush to trumpet the results as a reflection of Trump’s presidency as the losing team downplays the race as just one district of many that could go the other way next year. |
| Speaking of special congressional races: a certain ghost of special races past has resurfaced — Jon Ossoff. The former Democratic congressional candidate announced he would run against senator David Perdue, a Republican of Georgia. | Speaking of special congressional races: a certain ghost of special races past has resurfaced — Jon Ossoff. The former Democratic congressional candidate announced he would run against senator David Perdue, a Republican of Georgia. |
| In case you forgot about him (this blog certainly did), Ossoff narrowly lost to Karen Handel in a 2017 special election for Georgia’s Sixth Congressional District. | In case you forgot about him (this blog certainly did), Ossoff narrowly lost to Karen Handel in a 2017 special election for Georgia’s Sixth Congressional District. |
| Because it was the first major race after Trump’s election, Ossoff benefited from immense fundraising and organizing energy on the left. But the roughly $30 million he raised was for naught; he lost to Handel by about 4 points. (Handel, in turn, lost to Democrat Lucy McBath the next year.) | Because it was the first major race after Trump’s election, Ossoff benefited from immense fundraising and organizing energy on the left. But the roughly $30 million he raised was for naught; he lost to Handel by about 4 points. (Handel, in turn, lost to Democrat Lucy McBath the next year.) |
| Now Ossoff has jumped into the race against Perdue. Although he already has three primary opponents (and will likely get more), Ossoff immediately got an immediate boost with an endorsement from a Georgia celebrity: John Lewis, the longtime congressman and civil rights icon. | Now Ossoff has jumped into the race against Perdue. Although he already has three primary opponents (and will likely get more), Ossoff immediately got an immediate boost with an endorsement from a Georgia celebrity: John Lewis, the longtime congressman and civil rights icon. |
| “Like the many thousands Jon has already organized and inspired, I am ready to work tirelessly to elect him,” Lewis said. “Georgia and America need Jon.” | “Like the many thousands Jon has already organized and inspired, I am ready to work tirelessly to elect him,” Lewis said. “Georgia and America need Jon.” |
| Good morning, live blog readers! | Good morning, live blog readers! |
| It’s another (special) election day here in the US. North Carolina’s Ninth District will hold a congressional race today after the 2018 results were thrown out due to election fraud. Donald Trump held a rally there last night to boost Republican Dan Bishop, and the Democratic Party has lined up behind Dan McCready, who lost by less than 1,000 votes in last year’s tainted election. | It’s another (special) election day here in the US. North Carolina’s Ninth District will hold a congressional race today after the 2018 results were thrown out due to election fraud. Donald Trump held a rally there last night to boost Republican Dan Bishop, and the Democratic Party has lined up behind Dan McCready, who lost by less than 1,000 votes in last year’s tainted election. |
| The race is being read as a sign of Trump’s popularity (or lack there of) in districts he easily carried in 2016. (The president won the Ninth District by 11 points back in 2016.) If Bishop can’t win today, will Trump be able to carry the Ninth (and other places like it) next year? | The race is being read as a sign of Trump’s popularity (or lack there of) in districts he easily carried in 2016. (The president won the Ninth District by 11 points back in 2016.) If Bishop can’t win today, will Trump be able to carry the Ninth (and other places like it) next year? |
| Trump’s latest approval rating may give some insight on that last question. According to the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll, the president’s approval has slipped 6 points, down to 38 percent, since June. The decline seems mostly attributable to worsening attitudes about the economy, with 6 in 10 Americans expecting a recession in the next year. | Trump’s latest approval rating may give some insight on that last question. According to the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll, the president’s approval has slipped 6 points, down to 38 percent, since June. The decline seems mostly attributable to worsening attitudes about the economy, with 6 in 10 Americans expecting a recession in the next year. |
| Trump has been boasting of the strong economy for the past two years, and his team is banking on it to sail to re-election. Without it, he could be left floundering — taking a certain North Carolina congressional candidate down with him. | Trump has been boasting of the strong economy for the past two years, and his team is banking on it to sail to re-election. Without it, he could be left floundering — taking a certain North Carolina congressional candidate down with him. |
| Here’s what else the blog is keeping its eye on today: | Here’s what else the blog is keeping its eye on today: |
| Trump will have lunch with Mike Pence before speaking at the National Historically Black Colleges and Universities Week Conference. He will later meet with congressional Republican leadership and participate in the swearing-in ceremony of the new US ambassador to the UN, Kelly Craft. | Trump will have lunch with Mike Pence before speaking at the National Historically Black Colleges and Universities Week Conference. He will later meet with congressional Republican leadership and participate in the swearing-in ceremony of the new US ambassador to the UN, Kelly Craft. |
| One minor thing first: Craft actually has to be confirmed by the Senate first. The chamber will hold a 10 a.m. E.T. vote on her nomination. | One minor thing first: Craft actually has to be confirmed by the Senate first. The chamber will hold a 10 a.m. E.T. vote on her nomination. |
| Steven Mnuchin, the treasury secretary, and Ben Carson, the housing and urban development secretary, will testify before the Senate committee on housing finance reform. | Steven Mnuchin, the treasury secretary, and Ben Carson, the housing and urban development secretary, will testify before the Senate committee on housing finance reform. |
| That’s all still coming up, so stay tuned. | That’s all still coming up, so stay tuned. |