Survey Shows Broad Opposition to Trump Trade Policies

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/19/business/economy/trade-war-economic-concerns.html

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Economists and business leaders have been warning for months that President Trump’s trade war could damage the economy. The American public increasingly shares those concerns.

Consumers have been a bulwark of support for the economy, remaining confident even as hiring has slowed, the manufacturing sector has slumped and financial markets have grown volatile. But cracks are beginning to show. Several major measures of consumer sentiment have dipped in recent weeks, with many consumers citing tariffs as a reason for their pessimism.

Fifty-eight percent of Americans say the conflict with China will be bad for the United States, according to a survey this month for The New York Times by the online research platform SurveyMonkey. That’s up from 53 percent in June, the last time that question was asked. An even larger share of respondents, 63 percent, think Mr. Trump’s trade policies will be bad for the economy, at least in the short term, also up from an earlier survey.

There are signs the White House is taking notice. The administration is racing to secure limited trade deals with Japan and India before the end of the month that would open their markets to American farmers. And last week, the Trump administration said it would delay a round of tariff increases on China scheduled for next month. Mr. Trump described the decision as a “gesture of good will,” but some analysts saw a political motivation: Farmers, a key constituency for Mr. Trump, have grown increasingly frustrated with the administration’s trade policies.

Stories of struggling farmers are proving influential even with voters outside farm country.

“The trade war with China, I feel like, is just destroying farmers and agriculture industry,” said Ashley Connor, who sells beauty products from her home in Nashville.

Ms. Connor, a 39-year-old mother of two, is about to start a job with UPS. She is also considering working part time at an Amazon warehouse. But while plenty of jobs are available, few pay a living wage, at least for people like her who lack a college degree, she said. The trade fight, she added, is emblematic of Mr. Trump’s overall approach to the economy.

“He’s taking care of all his rich friends, and he’s kind of gutting every program for lower- and middle-class families,” she said. “I just don’t feel like the economy is set up for people like me.”

Consumer sentiment has proved resilient. One closely watched measure, from the University of Michigan, rebounded in September after falling sharply in August, although it is still down over the past year. Actual spending has stayed strong.

“There’s not one big crisis, just a general sense of unease,” said Laura Wronski, a research scientist for SurveyMonkey. “We have all these same underlying conditions of political uncertainty and uncertainty about the likelihood of a recession, but people are still, over all, optimistic about where things are.”

Aditya Bhave, an economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said tariffs had done relatively little to dent consumer confidence so far. But he said that could change if the Trump administration followed through on threats to raise tariffs on consumer goods, and if the uncertainty around trade caused an economic slowdown or layoffs.

Those risks could be rising. In a report on Thursday, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development downgraded its economic outlook for the United States and the world as a whole, saying that “escalating trade policy tensions are taking an increasing toll on confidence and investment.” The Paris-based research and policy agency now expects United States economic output to grow 2.4 percent this year and 2 percent next year, more modest gains than estimated previously.

The administration has continued to defend its policies, arguing that Mr. Trump’s trade war will ultimately deliver benefits for the global economy by reforming China’s trading practices, and that naysayers are exaggerating the negative trends.

Speaking at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce on Tuesday, Larry Kudlow, the director of Mr. Trump’s National Economic Council, pointed to recent data showing that industrial production rebounded in August, and argued that the American economy had the potential to grow at 3 percent “or better.”

“The outlook for growth is good,” he said. “There’s certainly no recession.”

But business leaders who are bearing the costs of the trade war have been blunt.

On Wednesday, the Business Roundtable, an organization of corporate chief executives, said its members’ economic outlook had fallen sharply in the third quarter. More than half of the executives in the group’s survey reported that tariffs had caused a somewhat or very negative impact on their sales. Companies said they expected to hire fewer people and invest less in coming months.

“American businesses now have their foot poised above the brake, and they’re tapping the brake periodically,” Joshua Bolten, the organization’s president, said in a statement. “Uncertainty is preventing the full potential of the economy from being unleashed, limiting growth and investment here in the U.S.”

The trade war is particularly unpopular among people like Ms. Connor who disapprove of Mr. Trump’s broader performance in office. But the Times survey found concern even among those more sympathetic to the president. Two-thirds of independents say the fight with China will be bad for the United States, and support has also softened somewhat among Republicans. (Among those who strongly approve of Mr. Trump, however, only 11 percent say the conflict will be bad for the country.)

Travis Wolff, a recruiter for a trucking company in Lubbock, Tex., describes himself as a moderate who tends toward conservatism on economic issues. He didn’t vote for either major-party candidate in the last presidential election. While Mr. Trump has exceeded his expectations in office, Mr. Wolff said, he doesn’t like the president’s approach to trade.

“I don’t think tariffs are necessarily beneficial to either country,” he said. “It’s not like government is paying for that. We’re paying for that. We’re bearing the brunt of it.”

Mr. Wolff, 37, said the economy was doing well in his area now, thanks to the West Texas oil boom, but said he didn’t feel that Mr. Trump deserved much credit for that — and he thinks a recession is likely next year. He said he would consider voting for a Democrat in 2020, particularly if the nominee was one of the more moderate candidates, like former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr.

But Democratic presidential candidates have struggled to articulate to voters exactly what they would do differently from Mr. Trump on trade. While Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and former Representative Beto O’Rourke of Texas have released detailed trade agendas, most of the other candidates have been vague on their plans, besides general criticism of Mr. Trump and a vow to work more closely with allies. In a debate last week, several candidates said they would not roll back Mr. Trump’s China tariffs immediately.

Bruce Friedman, a 67-year-old registered nurse in the Hudson Valley of New York, said tariffs were hurting farmers and consumers and were threatening the broader economy. He said Democrats should spend less time criticizing Mr. Trump and more time laying out their own plans.

“If they talked about trade and things like that, they might get ahead,” Mr. Friedman said. “That’s what they need to talk about, is how they’re going to help the working people, the middle class.”

But another survey respondent, Gustave Miracle, illustrated the delicate position facing Democrats. Mr. Miracle, a Catholic priest outside Boston, said he deeply opposed Mr. Trump’s immigration policies but appreciated his trade policies, which he saw as an effort to stand up for American workers.

“I appreciated the fact that there was a lot of talk about the blue collar in America,” he said of Mr. Trump’s 2016 campaign.

Mr. Miracle, 45, said he doubted that Mr. Trump’s policies would bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States. But he said they were worth trying.

“It’s moral to have that fight, to stand for the American laborer, for the American average citizen,” he said.

About the survey: The data in this article came from an online survey of 2,740 adults conducted by the polling firm SurveyMonkey from Sept. 2 to Sept. 8. The company selected respondents at random from the nearly three million people who take surveys on its platform each day. Responses were weighted to match the demographic profile of the population of the United States. The survey has a modeled error estimate (similar to a margin of error in a standard telephone poll) of plus or minus three percentage points, so differences of less than that amount are statistically insignificant.