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Labour conference and Brexit: how will the vote play out? What does Labour vote signify about where it stands on Brexit?
(about 8 hours later)
What is Jeremy Corbyn’s Brexit position?What is Jeremy Corbyn’s Brexit position?
The Labour leader has set out a careful position on how he would like to deal with Brexit in a strategy aimed at not alienating either leave or remain voters at an election. He would first want to win an election, then negotiate a Labour Brexit deal with Brussels relatively quickly. Within six months of the election, there would be a second referendum to choose between Labour’s deal and remaining in the EU. A special conference would decide how Labour should campaign.The Labour leader has set out a careful position on how he would like to deal with Brexit in a strategy aimed at not alienating either leave or remain voters at an election. He would first want to win an election, then negotiate a Labour Brexit deal with Brussels relatively quickly. Within six months of the election, there would be a second referendum to choose between Labour’s deal and remaining in the EU. A special conference would decide how Labour should campaign.
How would Corbyn himself campaign?How would Corbyn himself campaign?
Corbyn has so far refused to say whether he would prefer a Labour-led Brexit deal or remaining in the EU, saying it depends what is negotiated with Brussels. It is not clear whether he could stay above the fray of campaigning in a referendum while the party picked a side. His aim would be to play the honest broker carrying out what the people decide. It puts him in a different place from senior Labour figures who want to personally campaign to remain, including shadow chancellor John McDonnell, the deputy leader, Tom Watson, and Emily Thornberry, the shadow foreign secretary. Corbyn has so far refused to say whether he would prefer a Labour-led Brexit deal or to remain in the EU, saying it depends what is negotiated with Brussels. It is not clear whether he could stay above the fray of campaigning in a referendum while the party picked a side. His aim would probably be to play the honest broker carrying out what the people decide. It puts him in a different place from senior Labour figures who want to personally campaign to remain, including the shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, the deputy leader, Tom Watson, and Emily Thornberry, the shadow foreign secretary.
Labour rows over Brexit worsen before crucial votes at conferenceLabour rows over Brexit worsen before crucial votes at conference
Why are the pro-remain activists challenging Corbyn with their own motion? Why did the pro-remain activists challenge Corbyn with their own motion?
Many pro-remain campaigners are unhappy with Corbyn’s stance and want an unequivocal policy of campaigning to stay in the EU going into an election. MPs in marginal seats, including shadow cabinet ministers, are also concerned that the Lib Dems, who have a policy of revoking article 50, could take a significant amount of votes off them at an election without a more pro-remain stance. They succeeded in getting a vote on the conference floor scheduled for late afternoon on Monday, after more than 50 local parties supported a pro-remain text at a “compositing” meeting on Sunday. Many remain campaigners are unhappy with Corbyn’s stance and wanted an unequivocal policy of campaigning to stay in the EU going into an election. MPs in marginal seats, including shadow cabinet ministers, are also concerned the Lib Dems, who have a policy of revoking article 50, could take a significant amount of votes off them at an election without a more pro-remain stance.
How will the vote play out? How did the vote play out?
The issue is already causing bitter splits among Labour groups and trade unions, with Unite and Momentum backing Corbyn’s position, while Unison and much of the membership are expected to vote in favour of remain. Pro-remain campaigners say it will be tight but possibly winnable. Half of all votes are weighted to delegates and half to trade unions, so it is difficult to predict. Corbyn’s position won by a show of hands, with the chair not seeing the need for a vote to be counted precisely – known as a “card vote”. A succession of speakers from Len McCluskey, the Unite general secretary, to Momentum activists succeeded in turning the issue into one of loyalty to Corbyn’s leadership. But the row caused bitter splits among Labour groups and trade unions, with Unison and a big chunk of local parties having declared remain positions. While Corbyn did appear to have the backing of the room, remain campaigners said that could have been because of his support from the unions. “It is possible that the remain motion had a majority in the CLPs, but because there was no card vote we will never know,” said one.
What would the consequences of a loss be for Corbyn? What are the consequences for Corbyn?
It would be a hard blow for Corbyn to lose a vote on such a major policy issue, when the membership have been so overwhelmingly loyal to him for four years. His response will be critical as he would likely face outright revolt if he tried to fudge the issue further. However, the waters could be muddied if both his position and the pro-remain position are advocated by conference (because of abstentions), giving him some room to say the party’s policy for a manifesto would be decided by the traditional clause V meeting before an election. Corbyn’s position within the party has been once again bolstered, as it became clear he had the backing of the floor. However, it was a battle partly won because of a trade union bloc vote by Unite and the GMB in his favour and much of the membership are still hoping for a shift to a pro-remain position in future. There will still likely be a battle at the party’s clause V meeting ahead of an election to decide the manifesto position. However, Corbyn’s victory makes it much more likely that Labour will head to the polls without saying whether it would campaign to leave or remain in the event of a second referendum.
Would the EU be receptive to Corbyn’s plan?Would the EU be receptive to Corbyn’s plan?
The EU has always said it is ready to work with any British government to map out a future relationship, ranging from Norway-style membership of the single market to a Canada-style free-trade agreement putting much greater distance between the bloc and the UK. The EU has always said it is ready to work with any British government to map out a future relationship, ranging from Norway-style membership of the single market to a Canada-style free trade agreement putting much greater distance between the bloc and the UK.
What has been ruled out repeatedly are substantial changes to the divorce deal: the legally binding withdrawal agreement covering citizens’ rights, the Brexit bill and the Irish border. But a revamped political declaration could be agreed within days, if the UK wanted it. However, it would only be a prelude to years of post-Brexit negotiations on trade, security and foreign policy. What has been ruled out repeatedly are substantial changes to the divorce deal: the legally binding withdrawal agreement covering citizens’ rights, the Brexit bill and the Irish border. A revamped political declaration could be agreed within days, if the UK wanted it. However, it would only be a prelude to years of post-Brexit negotiations on trade, security and foreign policy.
While the EU would welcome a closer trading relationship – less damaging for economies on both sides – it has ruled out granting the UK special status. The EU has repeatedly said non-membership can never be as good as membership. That guiding principle makes some ideas circulated by Labour MPs implausible, such as a British veto on EU trade deals, or a British opt out from free movement of people, while having unrestricted free movement of goods, services and capital. While the EU would welcome a closer trading relationship, which is less damaging for economies on both sides, it has ruled out granting the UK special status. The EU has repeatedly said non-membership can never be as good as membership. That guiding principle makes some ideas circulated by Labour MPs implausible, such as a British veto on EU trade deals, or a British opt-out from free movement of people, while having unrestricted free movement of goods, services and capital.
Labour conference 2019Labour conference 2019
Jeremy CorbynJeremy Corbyn
LabourLabour
BrexitBrexit
European UnionEuropean Union
EuropeEurope
Foreign policyForeign policy
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