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Will Trump Ever Leave the White House? Will Trump Ever Leave the White House?
(about 4 hours later)
Since 2015, we have been worrying about how much danger Donald Trump posed to democracy. Now, with the impeachment inquiry moving forward, a new question is rapidly gaining relevance: How and when will President Trump leave the White House?Since 2015, we have been worrying about how much danger Donald Trump posed to democracy. Now, with the impeachment inquiry moving forward, a new question is rapidly gaining relevance: How and when will President Trump leave the White House?
When I asked David Leege, professor of political science emeritus at Notre Dame, about political developments in the near future, his response surprised me. After noting that I had not posed the most important question, he added:When I asked David Leege, professor of political science emeritus at Notre Dame, about political developments in the near future, his response surprised me. After noting that I had not posed the most important question, he added:
We should not assume that either a 2020 election defeat or impeachment/conviction will remove Trump from the White House.We should not assume that either a 2020 election defeat or impeachment/conviction will remove Trump from the White House.
Leege elaborated:Leege elaborated:
Both before Trump was elected in 2016 and during his term, he has made frequent references to “my 2nd Amendment friends”’ and increasingly the “patriots” who constitute the military.Both before Trump was elected in 2016 and during his term, he has made frequent references to “my 2nd Amendment friends”’ and increasingly the “patriots” who constitute the military.
Before you decide that this is paranoia, let me point out that Leege is an eminently reasonable scholar, a former chair of the board of overseers of the American National Election Studies and one of the founders of the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems. He has been a valued source of mine for years.Before you decide that this is paranoia, let me point out that Leege is an eminently reasonable scholar, a former chair of the board of overseers of the American National Election Studies and one of the founders of the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems. He has been a valued source of mine for years.
“The country is armed to the hilt,” Leege wrote:“The country is armed to the hilt,” Leege wrote:
As president, Trump has resisted any effort to curb citizen access to guns and ammo. He puts on a modest show of concern when a particularly bad gun massacre occurs but, in the end, he sees armed citizens as a significant personal asset.As president, Trump has resisted any effort to curb citizen access to guns and ammo. He puts on a modest show of concern when a particularly bad gun massacre occurs but, in the end, he sees armed citizens as a significant personal asset.
Leege went on to speculate about what might happen in the worst of circumstances:Leege went on to speculate about what might happen in the worst of circumstances:
I think the legal profession, finance, and corporate business would resist Trump’s efforts toward a coup. They need stability to make profits. Perhaps the biggest question concerns the military. Coups are usually backstopped by colonels, not generals. Thus, major barracks could provide him with support. Probably his best strategy to keep all levels of the military loyal to him rather than to the Constitution would be to embroil us in a major war.I think the legal profession, finance, and corporate business would resist Trump’s efforts toward a coup. They need stability to make profits. Perhaps the biggest question concerns the military. Coups are usually backstopped by colonels, not generals. Thus, major barracks could provide him with support. Probably his best strategy to keep all levels of the military loyal to him rather than to the Constitution would be to embroil us in a major war.
Should push come to shove, the pivotal group, in Leege’s view,Should push come to shove, the pivotal group, in Leege’s view,
is and always has been Republican United States Senators. If enough of them, spread across the country and in the South, see advantage in supporting the Constitution instead of their personal and party’s advantage, they would desert Trump either through conviction on impeachment articles or through the 2020 election.is and always has been Republican United States Senators. If enough of them, spread across the country and in the South, see advantage in supporting the Constitution instead of their personal and party’s advantage, they would desert Trump either through conviction on impeachment articles or through the 2020 election.
Take a look at what Trump has openly, consistently and repeatedly said. Here are just a few examples.Take a look at what Trump has openly, consistently and repeatedly said. Here are just a few examples.
On March 3, 2016, Brent Baier of Fox News asked Trump what would happen if the military refused to obey his orders to torture suspected terrorists because “they’ve been trained to turn down and refuse illegal orders.” Trump — still eight months before being elected — replied: On March 3, 2016, Bret Baier of Fox News asked Trump what would happen if the military refused to obey his orders to torture suspected terrorists because “they’ve been trained to turn down and refuse illegal orders.” Trump — still eight months before being elected — replied:
“They won’t refuse. They’re not going to refuse me. Believe me.”“They won’t refuse. They’re not going to refuse me. Believe me.”
Pressed further by Baier, Trump declared:Pressed further by Baier, Trump declared:
I’m a leader. I’m a leader. I’ve always been a leader. I’ve never had any problem leading people. If I say do it, they’re going to do it. That’s what leadership is all about.I’m a leader. I’m a leader. I’ve always been a leader. I’ve never had any problem leading people. If I say do it, they’re going to do it. That’s what leadership is all about.
In the final debate with Hillary Clinton on Oct. 19, 2016, Chris Wallace of Fox News pressed Trump to announce that he would “absolutely accept the result of this election.” Trump’s answer:In the final debate with Hillary Clinton on Oct. 19, 2016, Chris Wallace of Fox News pressed Trump to announce that he would “absolutely accept the result of this election.” Trump’s answer:
I will look at it at the time. I’m not looking at anything now. I’ll look at it at the time. What I’ve seen — what I’ve seen is so bad. First of all, the media is so dishonest and so corrupt, and the pile-on is so amazing.I will look at it at the time. I’m not looking at anything now. I’ll look at it at the time. What I’ve seen — what I’ve seen is so bad. First of all, the media is so dishonest and so corrupt, and the pile-on is so amazing.
Trump then claimed that the results could be corrupted because there are “millions of people that are registered to vote that shouldn’t be registered to vote.” Not only that, but his opponent “shouldn’t be allowed to run. It’s crooked — she’s, she’s guilty of a very, very serious crime. She should not be allowed to run.”Trump then claimed that the results could be corrupted because there are “millions of people that are registered to vote that shouldn’t be registered to vote.” Not only that, but his opponent “shouldn’t be allowed to run. It’s crooked — she’s, she’s guilty of a very, very serious crime. She should not be allowed to run.”
Finally, Trump concluded the exchange: “What I’m saying is that I will tell you at the time. I’ll keep you in suspense. O.K.?”Finally, Trump concluded the exchange: “What I’m saying is that I will tell you at the time. I’ll keep you in suspense. O.K.?”
Or consider what Trump has said while president. On March 12, 2019, a month before publication of the Mueller Report, Trump told Breitbart, the hard right populist news site:Or consider what Trump has said while president. On March 12, 2019, a month before publication of the Mueller Report, Trump told Breitbart, the hard right populist news site:
You know, the left plays a tougher game, it’s very funny. I actually think that the people on the right are tougher, but they don’t play it tougher. O.K.? I can tell you, I have the support of the police, the support of the military, the support of the Bikers for Trump — I have the tough people, but they don’t play it tough until they go to a certain point, and then it would be very bad, very bad.You know, the left plays a tougher game, it’s very funny. I actually think that the people on the right are tougher, but they don’t play it tougher. O.K.? I can tell you, I have the support of the police, the support of the military, the support of the Bikers for Trump — I have the tough people, but they don’t play it tough until they go to a certain point, and then it would be very bad, very bad.
And on Monday, Trump strengthened the case that he is willing to burn the house down, posting a series of tweets quoting Robert Jeffress, pastor of the First Baptist Church in Dallas, from an appearance on Fox News earlier that day.And on Monday, Trump strengthened the case that he is willing to burn the house down, posting a series of tweets quoting Robert Jeffress, pastor of the First Baptist Church in Dallas, from an appearance on Fox News earlier that day.
Here’s what Jeffress said:Here’s what Jeffress said:
I’ve literally spoken to thousands and thousands of evangelical Christians, I have never seen them more angry over any issue than this attempt to illegitimately remove this president from office, overturn the 2016 election and negate the votes of millions of evangelicals in the process. And if the Democrats are successful in removing the president from office, I’m afraid it will cause a Civil War-like fracture in this nation from which this country will never heal.I’ve literally spoken to thousands and thousands of evangelical Christians, I have never seen them more angry over any issue than this attempt to illegitimately remove this president from office, overturn the 2016 election and negate the votes of millions of evangelicals in the process. And if the Democrats are successful in removing the president from office, I’m afraid it will cause a Civil War-like fracture in this nation from which this country will never heal.
Now Trump is conducting an all-out assault on the impeachment process, calling it a coup in a pair of tweets posted on Tuesday:Now Trump is conducting an all-out assault on the impeachment process, calling it a coup in a pair of tweets posted on Tuesday:
As I learn more and more each day, I am coming to the conclusion that what is taking place is not an impeachment, it is a COUP, intended to take away the Power of the People, their VOTE, their Freedoms, their Second Amendment, Religion, Military, Border Wall, and their God-given rights as a Citizen of The United States of America!As I learn more and more each day, I am coming to the conclusion that what is taking place is not an impeachment, it is a COUP, intended to take away the Power of the People, their VOTE, their Freedoms, their Second Amendment, Religion, Military, Border Wall, and their God-given rights as a Citizen of The United States of America!
All of this raises a couple of questions: What drives the depth and intensity of support for Trump? And how far are those supporters willing to go to keep him in the White House?All of this raises a couple of questions: What drives the depth and intensity of support for Trump? And how far are those supporters willing to go to keep him in the White House?
Extensive evidence suggests that the passion of Trump’s loyalists is, to a considerable extent, rooted in what they perceive as racial and cultural threat. Polls and surveys from Pew, N.P.R. and the Public Religion Research Institute show that 55 percent of whites believe they are discriminated against, that a plurality of whites (46 percent) believes that a majority-minority nation will “weaken American culture” and that once dominant white Christians are no longer a majority.Extensive evidence suggests that the passion of Trump’s loyalists is, to a considerable extent, rooted in what they perceive as racial and cultural threat. Polls and surveys from Pew, N.P.R. and the Public Religion Research Institute show that 55 percent of whites believe they are discriminated against, that a plurality of whites (46 percent) believes that a majority-minority nation will “weaken American culture” and that once dominant white Christians are no longer a majority.
Let’s first examine the question of how seriously we should take the specter of civil disorder. I asked a number of experts in American politics and their replies varied.Let’s first examine the question of how seriously we should take the specter of civil disorder. I asked a number of experts in American politics and their replies varied.
Philip Bobbitt, a law professor at Columbia and the University of Texas, and the author of a new edition of Charles Black’s “Impeachment: A Handbook,” replied to my inquiry:Philip Bobbitt, a law professor at Columbia and the University of Texas, and the author of a new edition of Charles Black’s “Impeachment: A Handbook,” replied to my inquiry:
I doubt he would go quietly and would not be surprised if he claims he was robbed, but any attempt to hold onto office — to refuse to leave the mansion, or keep issuing executive orders drafted by Stephen Miller, or sending nominations to the Senate — would be laughably brief. There is no Praetorian Guard in the United States, certainly not the highly professional Secret Service.I doubt he would go quietly and would not be surprised if he claims he was robbed, but any attempt to hold onto office — to refuse to leave the mansion, or keep issuing executive orders drafted by Stephen Miller, or sending nominations to the Senate — would be laughably brief. There is no Praetorian Guard in the United States, certainly not the highly professional Secret Service.
Others were less sanguine.Others were less sanguine.
Walter Dellinger, professor emeritus at Duke Law School, former acting solicitor general and head of the Office of Legal Counsel under President Bill Clinton, wrote:Walter Dellinger, professor emeritus at Duke Law School, former acting solicitor general and head of the Office of Legal Counsel under President Bill Clinton, wrote:
I believe that the career officials of the federal government, including members of the military, would adhere to the person who won, regardless of which candidate they supported.I believe that the career officials of the federal government, including members of the military, would adhere to the person who won, regardless of which candidate they supported.
But, he added,But, he added,
the role of Fox News should not be underestimated. If Fox declared that Trump was the “real winner” all bets would be off. I believe, however, they would report honestly on such an important question.the role of Fox News should not be underestimated. If Fox declared that Trump was the “real winner” all bets would be off. I believe, however, they would report honestly on such an important question.
Steven Levitsky, a professor of government at Harvard and one of the authors of “How Democracies Die,” warned that a dangerous situation could emerge if the outcome of the 2020 election is very close, “one that, broadly like 2000, hinged on one or maybe two contested states.”Steven Levitsky, a professor of government at Harvard and one of the authors of “How Democracies Die,” warned that a dangerous situation could emerge if the outcome of the 2020 election is very close, “one that, broadly like 2000, hinged on one or maybe two contested states.”
In that case, Levitsky wrote,In that case, Levitsky wrote,
it is possible that Republicans would close ranks behind Trump, resulting in a constitutional crisis. If right-wing media and the G.O.P. politicians were to remain solidly behind Trump, as they largely have thus far in previous scandals, there would be no easy constitutional exit.it is possible that Republicans would close ranks behind Trump, resulting in a constitutional crisis. If right-wing media and the G.O.P. politicians were to remain solidly behind Trump, as they largely have thus far in previous scandals, there would be no easy constitutional exit.
Like Dellinger, Levitsky argued that Fox News will play a crucial role if Trump is impeached or loses a close re-election bid:Like Dellinger, Levitsky argued that Fox News will play a crucial role if Trump is impeached or loses a close re-election bid:
In my view, the key variable is the response of the Republican coalition, including Fox News and other major right wing media. If the Republican coalition fractures, Trump is toast.In my view, the key variable is the response of the Republican coalition, including Fox News and other major right wing media. If the Republican coalition fractures, Trump is toast.
If a Senate vote on impeachment “is bipartisan," Levitsky added, “Trump will have no choice but to go peacefully (screaming on Twitter, perhaps, but peacefully) into the night.”If a Senate vote on impeachment “is bipartisan," Levitsky added, “Trump will have no choice but to go peacefully (screaming on Twitter, perhaps, but peacefully) into the night.”
Bruce Cain, a political scientist at Stanford, argued in an email that Republicans will be very reluctant to turn against Trump:Bruce Cain, a political scientist at Stanford, argued in an email that Republicans will be very reluctant to turn against Trump:
In the Republican mind-set, the rules about transparency, legislative process and conflict of interest were driven by liberal reform groups not by people who actually wield power in America’s interest. America is teetering toward socialism and cultural chaos. Hence, the President has the right to push the boundaries of his power to achieve the right outcomes.In the Republican mind-set, the rules about transparency, legislative process and conflict of interest were driven by liberal reform groups not by people who actually wield power in America’s interest. America is teetering toward socialism and cultural chaos. Hence, the President has the right to push the boundaries of his power to achieve the right outcomes.
Cain described current events asCain described current events as
Nixon redux but worse. I naïvely thought we passed this test as a country already with Watergate and Iran-contra but it seems that our periodic assaults on democratic values are like a bad weather cycle made worse by a more extreme political climate.Nixon redux but worse. I naïvely thought we passed this test as a country already with Watergate and Iran-contra but it seems that our periodic assaults on democratic values are like a bad weather cycle made worse by a more extreme political climate.
Bart Bonikowski, a professor of sociology at Harvard, reiterated the importance of norm violation in Trump’s governing strategy:Bart Bonikowski, a professor of sociology at Harvard, reiterated the importance of norm violation in Trump’s governing strategy:
It signals to Trump’s (overwhelmingly white) supporters that he’s willing to represent them at any cost, even that of liberal democracy itself.It signals to Trump’s (overwhelmingly white) supporters that he’s willing to represent them at any cost, even that of liberal democracy itself.
Bonikowski contended that whileBonikowski contended that while
the substance of Trumpism is ethnonationalist, its form is authoritarian. Like other aspiring autocrats, such as Hungary’s Viktor Orbán or Poland’s Jarosław Kaczyński, Trump seeks to delegitimize his opposition as “enemies of the people” in order to mobilize his base and maintain a stranglehold on power.the substance of Trumpism is ethnonationalist, its form is authoritarian. Like other aspiring autocrats, such as Hungary’s Viktor Orbán or Poland’s Jarosław Kaczyński, Trump seeks to delegitimize his opposition as “enemies of the people” in order to mobilize his base and maintain a stranglehold on power.
Whether perpetrated by “journalists, independent judges, career civil servants, or legislators,” Bonikowski wrote, “any attempt at checking his power is seen as a betrayal of him, his supporters, and ultimately, the nation.”Whether perpetrated by “journalists, independent judges, career civil servants, or legislators,” Bonikowski wrote, “any attempt at checking his power is seen as a betrayal of him, his supporters, and ultimately, the nation.”
David Brady, a political scientist who is also a professor at the Stanford Graduate School of Business, provided poll data indicating that the hard core of Trump supporters is quite likely to disbelieve outcomes in which Trump is cast as the loser.David Brady, a political scientist who is also a professor at the Stanford Graduate School of Business, provided poll data indicating that the hard core of Trump supporters is quite likely to disbelieve outcomes in which Trump is cast as the loser.
Brady pointed out that in “the latest YouGov poll, 89 percent of those who strongly approve of the job Trump is doing also say that the deep state is trying to overthrow the president.”Brady pointed out that in “the latest YouGov poll, 89 percent of those who strongly approve of the job Trump is doing also say that the deep state is trying to overthrow the president.”
At the same time, Brady continued,At the same time, Brady continued,
less than 15 percent of those same strong Trump supporters have any faith in TV news, newspapers and less than a third support the C.I.A., F.B.I. and so on.less than 15 percent of those same strong Trump supporters have any faith in TV news, newspapers and less than a third support the C.I.A., F.B.I. and so on.
Ashley Jardina, a political scientist at Duke, cited the sense of racial isolation common among many Trump supporters. “Some of Trump’s most steadfast supporters are white Americans who feel a strong sense of solidarity with their racial group,” she wrote, while experiencing “a sense of racial alienation — or a profound feeling of group disenfranchisement.”Ashley Jardina, a political scientist at Duke, cited the sense of racial isolation common among many Trump supporters. “Some of Trump’s most steadfast supporters are white Americans who feel a strong sense of solidarity with their racial group,” she wrote, while experiencing “a sense of racial alienation — or a profound feeling of group disenfranchisement.”
These voters, according to Jardina,These voters, according to Jardina,
tend to agree that American society owes whites a better chance in life than they have received, that it hasn’t given them an opportunity to get ahead, and that it hasn’t dealt fairly with white people.tend to agree that American society owes whites a better chance in life than they have received, that it hasn’t given them an opportunity to get ahead, and that it hasn’t dealt fairly with white people.
From another vantage point altogether, there is the dilemma of the conservative who finds Trump repugnant, but also views Democrats as worse.From another vantage point altogether, there is the dilemma of the conservative who finds Trump repugnant, but also views Democrats as worse.
Charles Murray, a political scientist affiliated with the American Enterprise Institute and the author of “Coming Apart,” believes that Trump isCharles Murray, a political scientist affiliated with the American Enterprise Institute and the author of “Coming Apart,” believes that Trump is
a malignant narcissist, which includes as symptoms some of the most unattractive qualities that human beings can have. He also exhibits textbook traits of mental decline that have worsened measurably over the last three years. I find in him no evidence of redeeming traits — no instance of loyalty to a friend in trouble or of unconditional generosity. I despise him and think he is unfit to be president.a malignant narcissist, which includes as symptoms some of the most unattractive qualities that human beings can have. He also exhibits textbook traits of mental decline that have worsened measurably over the last three years. I find in him no evidence of redeeming traits — no instance of loyalty to a friend in trouble or of unconditional generosity. I despise him and think he is unfit to be president.
Despite that, Murray continued, “it is also quite possible that I will find myself voting for him next year.” The conservative scholar said he approves of many of the things that have happened during the Trump years — especially “the judges he has appointed and the steps to roll back stupid and obstructive regulations. I also think that the nation needs to control its borders and limit low-skill immigration.”Despite that, Murray continued, “it is also quite possible that I will find myself voting for him next year.” The conservative scholar said he approves of many of the things that have happened during the Trump years — especially “the judges he has appointed and the steps to roll back stupid and obstructive regulations. I also think that the nation needs to control its borders and limit low-skill immigration.”
While Joe Biden might be an acceptable choice, in Murray’s view, “a Warren or Sanders presidency would be a disaster for the nation.”While Joe Biden might be an acceptable choice, in Murray’s view, “a Warren or Sanders presidency would be a disaster for the nation.”
Murray concluded:Murray concluded:
So there you have it: I despise the man, worry that he will make terrible foreign policy blunders, but from my perspective policies under Trump are vastly superior to the policies that would be pursued by the leading Democratic candidates. It’s a Hobson’s choice.So there you have it: I despise the man, worry that he will make terrible foreign policy blunders, but from my perspective policies under Trump are vastly superior to the policies that would be pursued by the leading Democratic candidates. It’s a Hobson’s choice.
From the perspective of Trump’s most ardent supporters, the issue of race is crucial.From the perspective of Trump’s most ardent supporters, the issue of race is crucial.
Data that helps us understand the ardent level of support among many Trump voters can be found in a March 19, 2019 Pew Research report, “Looking to the Future, Public Sees an America in Decline on Many Fronts.”Data that helps us understand the ardent level of support among many Trump voters can be found in a March 19, 2019 Pew Research report, “Looking to the Future, Public Sees an America in Decline on Many Fronts.”
As the accompanying chart shows, the Pew survey asked two relevant questions.As the accompanying chart shows, the Pew survey asked two relevant questions.
First, “Will having a majority of the population made up of blacks, Asians, Hispanics and other racial minorities by 2050 lead to more or fewer conflicts between racial and ethnic groups?”First, “Will having a majority of the population made up of blacks, Asians, Hispanics and other racial minorities by 2050 lead to more or fewer conflicts between racial and ethnic groups?”
Republicans said more conflicts by better than 4 to 1, 59-14; a much smaller percentage of Democrats said that there would more conflict, 42-36.Republicans said more conflicts by better than 4 to 1, 59-14; a much smaller percentage of Democrats said that there would more conflict, 42-36.
Second, “Will having a majority of the population made up of blacks, Asians, Hispanics and other racial minorities by 2050 strengthen or weaken American customs and values?”Second, “Will having a majority of the population made up of blacks, Asians, Hispanics and other racial minorities by 2050 strengthen or weaken American customs and values?”
In this case, Republicans foresee a weakening of American customs and values by a decisive 59-13. Democrats, in contrast, anticipate stronger customs and values, 42-22.In this case, Republicans foresee a weakening of American customs and values by a decisive 59-13. Democrats, in contrast, anticipate stronger customs and values, 42-22.
Lilliana Mason, a political scientist at the University of Maryland, posed a thought-provoking question in her response to my emailed inquiry.Lilliana Mason, a political scientist at the University of Maryland, posed a thought-provoking question in her response to my emailed inquiry.
First, she argued:First, she argued:
I don’t think it’s entirely about Trump — the Republican Party has been the party of white Christians for a while now. What Trump did was to remind white voters that they should feel victimized and aggrieved.I don’t think it’s entirely about Trump — the Republican Party has been the party of white Christians for a while now. What Trump did was to remind white voters that they should feel victimized and aggrieved.
With Trump capitalizing on a hostile reaction to the election of the first black president and his own “scapegoating of nonwhite people,” Mason wrote, whiteness “became, instead of the ‘default’ American identity, a thing to defend.”With Trump capitalizing on a hostile reaction to the election of the first black president and his own “scapegoating of nonwhite people,” Mason wrote, whiteness “became, instead of the ‘default’ American identity, a thing to defend.”
Over and above that, Mason wrote, it’s possible thatOver and above that, Mason wrote, it’s possible that
the social sorting that we have observed over the last few decades has been a gradual movement toward a real reckoning with race in American politics and society that we haven’t ever really had to face.the social sorting that we have observed over the last few decades has been a gradual movement toward a real reckoning with race in American politics and society that we haven’t ever really had to face.
If, she continued,If, she continued,
Americans were to have a true reckoning with our legacy of racial violence and bias, we should expect to see a strong backlash from the forces of white supremacy that have been in America’s DNA since the founding. An optimistic view is that we are in the beginning of this process now. A pessimistic view allows that the backlash might succeed. Either way, it is not inconsistent with Trump’s evocation of Civil War.Americans were to have a true reckoning with our legacy of racial violence and bias, we should expect to see a strong backlash from the forces of white supremacy that have been in America’s DNA since the founding. An optimistic view is that we are in the beginning of this process now. A pessimistic view allows that the backlash might succeed. Either way, it is not inconsistent with Trump’s evocation of Civil War.
Jack Goldstone, a professor of public policy at George Mason, voiced the more pessimistic view.Jack Goldstone, a professor of public policy at George Mason, voiced the more pessimistic view.
For many Trump supporters, Goldstone wrote by email, “the world they grew up in and knew best was an overwhelmingly white, Christian world, with institutions led by white Christian men.”For many Trump supporters, Goldstone wrote by email, “the world they grew up in and knew best was an overwhelmingly white, Christian world, with institutions led by white Christian men.”
These Trump supporters, in Goldstone’s view,These Trump supporters, in Goldstone’s view,
fear being overwhelmed by a sudden increase in the volume of minorities in society that will leave them unrepresented and disadvantaged — indeed many feel already disadvantaged compared to the efforts to give preferences to “underrepresented” minorities.fear being overwhelmed by a sudden increase in the volume of minorities in society that will leave them unrepresented and disadvantaged — indeed many feel already disadvantaged compared to the efforts to give preferences to “underrepresented” minorities.
For these voters, Goldstone wrote,For these voters, Goldstone wrote,
an attack on Trump is an attack on themselves; hence the strength of their response to efforts to impugn Trump or remove him from power. For these voters, Trump is all that is holding back the deluge that will sweep them away once the ‘liberal elites’ and minorities take power.an attack on Trump is an attack on themselves; hence the strength of their response to efforts to impugn Trump or remove him from power. For these voters, Trump is all that is holding back the deluge that will sweep them away once the ‘liberal elites’ and minorities take power.
If, Goldstone continued, these voters feelIf, Goldstone continued, these voters feel
that impeachment is just motivated by a desire to remove Trump and bring liberal elites and minorities to power, they would fight tooth and nail and even go to the streets to defend him against an “unlawful coup” and “overturning the will of the American people.”that impeachment is just motivated by a desire to remove Trump and bring liberal elites and minorities to power, they would fight tooth and nail and even go to the streets to defend him against an “unlawful coup” and “overturning the will of the American people.”
In order for impeachment to be accepted by these voters, he wrote, itIn order for impeachment to be accepted by these voters, he wrote, it
cannot be a technical criminal action. It would have to be a clear case of Trump acting so much in his own behalf and betraying the country that it would undercut these voters’ belief that Trump is acting for them.cannot be a technical criminal action. It would have to be a clear case of Trump acting so much in his own behalf and betraying the country that it would undercut these voters’ belief that Trump is acting for them.
In an interview with Axios, Goldstone described the reaction among some whites to the prospect of a multicultural America: “The panic translates into an effective voting bloc that has high anxiety about immigration, diversity and religious issues.”In an interview with Axios, Goldstone described the reaction among some whites to the prospect of a multicultural America: “The panic translates into an effective voting bloc that has high anxiety about immigration, diversity and religious issues.”
Unlike Goldstone, William Frey, a senior fellow at Brookings and an expert on the nation’s changing demographics, is an optimist. He wrote by email:Unlike Goldstone, William Frey, a senior fellow at Brookings and an expert on the nation’s changing demographics, is an optimist. He wrote by email:
There is no doubt that Trump continues to fan the flames of racial anxiety for his perceived benefit. He tries to paint an America that has shifted from the white dominated 1950s when immigration was low and blacks were highly segregated.There is no doubt that Trump continues to fan the flames of racial anxiety for his perceived benefit. He tries to paint an America that has shifted from the white dominated 1950s when immigration was low and blacks were highly segregated.
Frey observes thatFrey observes that
This is not the America of today and really only applies to a swath of the population ages 55 and above and in whiter parts of the country whose populations are increasingly diminishing, Only 30 percent of the population lives in  counties where minorities are highly represented and 96 percent of counties are becoming less white. Most people, even many in those demographic categories, have had contact with racial minorities through their families and workplaces and are not cowed by Trump’s rhetoric.This is not the America of today and really only applies to a swath of the population ages 55 and above and in whiter parts of the country whose populations are increasingly diminishing, Only 30 percent of the population lives in  counties where minorities are highly represented and 96 percent of counties are becoming less white. Most people, even many in those demographic categories, have had contact with racial minorities through their families and workplaces and are not cowed by Trump’s rhetoric.
Frey says that hisFrey says that his
own view is that Trump won in 2016 for a variety of reasons, including economic difficulties affecting some groups, a distaste for Hillary Clinton and, for some, the idea, floated by Trump, that immigrants and nonwhites were changing the country in distasteful ways.own view is that Trump won in 2016 for a variety of reasons, including economic difficulties affecting some groups, a distaste for Hillary Clinton and, for some, the idea, floated by Trump, that immigrants and nonwhites were changing the country in distasteful ways.
He also notes thatHe also notes that
Now Trump is less popular in general and Republicans have done less well in the 2018 midterms including among whites, especially white women, and in nonurban areas.Now Trump is less popular in general and Republicans have done less well in the 2018 midterms including among whites, especially white women, and in nonurban areas.
Frey concludes on a note in line with the data he presents:Frey concludes on a note in line with the data he presents:
Yes, some people are afraid of a nonwhite takeover for America but they are a small and dwindling piece of the American electorate. Highlighting race as a primary campaign message will not work for Trump again.Yes, some people are afraid of a nonwhite takeover for America but they are a small and dwindling piece of the American electorate. Highlighting race as a primary campaign message will not work for Trump again.
I would like to be able to share Frey’s optimism, but I am more worried than he is about strains within the American electorate.I would like to be able to share Frey’s optimism, but I am more worried than he is about strains within the American electorate.
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