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Poland: exit poll says Law and Justice party has won election Poland: exit poll says Law and Justice party has won election
(32 minutes later)
An exit poll has indicated that Poland’s conservative ruling party Law and Justice has won the most votes in the country’s general election. Poland’s ruling right-wing Law and Justice party is set to win a majority in the country’s parliament and secure another four-year term, according to an exit poll published at the close of voting on Sunday/last night.
The exit poll conducted by the research firm Ipsos and released on Sunday night projects that Law and Justice won 43.6% of the votes. The party has governed Poland since 2015 and is popular for its social conservatism and generous social spending. The poll, conducted by Ipsos for private broadcaster TVN, gave Law and Justice 43.6% of the vote, which if correct would give the party 239 out of 460 seats in the Polish Sejm.
According to the projections, that would translate into a majority of seats in the 460-seat lower house of parliament, giving the party the chance to govern the country for another four years. The opposition Civic Coalition, a liberal centre-right grouping, was predicted to receive 24.1%, translating to 130 seats, dampening expectations that it could remove Law and Justice from office by forging a governing coalition of opposition groups.
Law and Justice party leader Jarosław Kaczyński is considered the real power behind Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki’s government. After the exit poll was released, Kaczyński declared victory. Despite noting it was not the final result, he said: “We have a victory: despite a powerful front, we managed to win.” Observers note that snap exit polls in Poland have proved unreliable in the past, notably after European elections this year, and that even modest changes in vote share could have a significant effect on the distribution of seats, depending on how the electoral battle plays out at the constituency level.
The poll projected that a centrist pro-European Union umbrella group, Civic Coalition, was second with 27.4%. The coalition’s biggest party is Civic Platform, which governed Poland from 2007 to 2015. If confirmed, however, the results would constitute a major boost for Law and Justice, which received 37.6% of the vote on a much lower turnout in the last elections held in 2015, even if their projected vote share is slightly lower than many pre-election polls appeared to suggest.
Other parties that seemed likely to surpass a 5% threshold to get into parliament are a leftwing alliance, which had 11.9% in the poll; the conservative agrarian Polish People’s Party had 9.6%; and a new far-right alliance called Confederation had 6.4%. There was elation at the party’s headquarters as the exit poll was projected on a big screen, with supporters chanting the name of Jarosław Kaczyński, the party’s founder and leader, who has in effect run Poland from his party office since Law and Justice assumed office four years ago.
The exit poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. Official results were expected by Tuesday. “We have reasons to be joyful, despite the powerful front that was arraigned against us, we were able to win” said Kaczyński. “I hope that tomorrow will bring confirmation of our success. We have four years of hard work in front of us, because Poland needs to change further. And it must change for the better.”
Critics believe four more years for Law and Justice will reverse the democratic achievements of this eastern European nation, citing an erosion of judicial independence and of minority rights since the party took power in 2015. “Today the sun shone as it rarely does in October,” said Mateusz Morawiecki, Poland’s prime minister and a Kaczyński nominee, “and I hope tomorrow it will shine even brighter. These results give us a huge public mandate.”
Law and Justice’s apparent success stems from policies that have helped even out economic inequalities. It is the first party since the fall of communism to break with the austerity of previous governments. Its free-market policies took a moribund communist economy and transformed it into one of Europe’s most dynamic. Also buoyant were supporters of Lewica, a coalition of left-wing parties that, according to the exit poll, received 11.9% of the vote, translating to 43 seats. The result would mark a return of leftwing parties to Polish parliamentary politics after a four-year absence, when a fragmented left failed to cross the parliamentary threshold.
However, many Poles were left out of that transformation and inequalities grew, creating grievances. Law and Justice has skilfully addressed those concerns with popular programs, including one that gives away 500 złoty (£102) to families per month per child, taking the edge off poverty for some and giving others more disposable income. It says the funds come from a tighter tax collection system. “We are returning to the parliament!” Robert Biedron, one of Lewica’s three co-leaders, told a post-election rally. “We are going back to where the Polish left has always belonged.”
Law and Justice’s overhaul of the judicial system has given the party unprecedented power over Poland’s prosecution system and courts. In reaction, the EU has repeatedly said the rule of law was threatened and has sanctioned the country, blunting some of the changes, but not all. The exit poll also suggested that Konfederacja, a coalition of far-right and radical nationalist groups, would also cross the 5% threshold and enter parliament with 6.4% of the vote and a projected 13 seats.
The ruling party has used taxpayer-funded public media, which is supposed to be nonpartisan, to hail the party’s achievements and denigrate political rivals. One of the leaders of Konfederacja, which receives the bulk of its support from the country’s youngest voters, is Janusz Korwin-Mikke, a veteran former MEP best-known outside Poland for arguing that women are not intelligent enough to be allowed to vote.
It also ran a campaign targeting the LGBT movement, depicting it as a grave threat to the nation’s culture and children. Defending the traditional family in a country where most people are Roman Catholics is a message that has found favour with many. The exit poll appears to confirm the fears Civic Coalition and its largest party of , the centre-right Civic Platform, which governed the country between 2007 and 2015.
“There will be no Budapest in Warsaw!” said Civic Platform’s leader, Grzegorz Schetyna, a reference to Kaczyński’s oft-quoted claim that his long-term intention was to emulate the so-called “illiberal democracy” pioneered by Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban.
Turnout is estimated at 61.6%, a very significant rise on the just over 50% of voters who participated in 2015. If confirmed, it would be the largest turnout in parliamentary elections since the fall of communism in 1989.
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