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Poland's populist Law and Justice party win second term in power Poland's populist Law and Justice party win second term in power
(about 2 hours later)
Poland’s ruling rightwing Law and Justice (PiS) party appears to have won a second term in power, final results from Sunday’s parliamentary election showed, but its drive to push through its agenda may be hampered by its loss of the upper house. Poland’s ruling rightwing Law and Justice (PiS) party has narrowly won a second term in office, but its grip on power was weakened after it lost control of the upper house and failed to increase its majority in the more powerful lower chamber.
What had earlier looked like a clearcut victory for PiS morphed into a closer than expected contest for the more powerful lower house and an opposition win in the upper house, dealing a blow to the socially conservative party that had aimed for a big enough majority to change the constitution. What had looked like a clear-cut victory for PiS turned into a far tighter contest, with final results showing that while the party won just under 44% of Sunday’s vote for the lower house or Sejm, up from 38% in 2015, it secured only 235 seats in the 460-seat assembly – the same total as in 2015.
In the 100-seat senate the opposition claimed victory, with the centrist Civic Coalition publishing on Twitter the names of 51 opposition members and allies who had won seats, dealing a blow to the socially conservative party’s ambitions.
Election results give hope to opposition in Poland and HungaryElection results give hope to opposition in Poland and Hungary
Coming on the day that the Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orbán, a key PiS ally, experienced his first election defeat in about a decade, losing control of the capital Budapest, Sunday’s worse than predicted result in Warsaw marked a setback for nationalists across the EU who want to wrest back power from Brussels. Control of the senate, which has a say in a number of key state appointments such as Poland’s civil rights ombudsman, would also allow the opposition to block or delay legislation proposed by PiS.
In the lower house, the Sejm, PiS won just under 44% of Sunday’s vote, up from 38% in 2015, Poland’s electoral commission said. Under the Polish system for seat distribution, the party would still have a majority , but only a few seats more than before. Jarosław Kaczyński, the party leader, who had been hoping for a two thirds majority of seats in the Sejm that would have allowed him to reshape the constitution, conceded on Monday that the loss of the upper house meant the government would inevitably face delays in its legislative agenda.
In the 100-seat upper house, the Senate, the opposition claimed victory, with the centrist Civic Coalition publishing on Twitter the names of 51 opposition members and allies who had won seats. A PiS senator, Jan Maria Jackowski, also said the party had found itself in a “new situation” in the senate and would have to negotiate to pass laws.
“Senate won back. Thanks to the agreement of opposition parties, the opposition will have the majority in the Senate,” the leader of one opposition party Katarzyna Lubnauer tweeted. Stanley Bill, a senior lecturer in Polish politics at the University of Cambridge, asked: “Could PiS’s high-water mark have passed? Their second term is shaping up as a greater challenge than their first. Parliament will be trickier, with more parties to contest their policies from different directions.” He said the party risked “losing momentum.”
Control of the senate would allow the opposition to block or delay legislation proposed by PiS and give it a say on nominations to some of Poland’s highest institutions such as the civil rights ombudsman. The other main recipients of votes were the main opposition party Civic Coalition (27.4%), the Left, a grouping of leftwing parties (12.56%), the conservative Polish Coalition (8.6%) and a new far-right party, Confederation (6.8%), according to the electoral commission.
During its first term in power, PiS gained a reputation for pushing through legislation at breakneck speed, with hastily called late-night sittings of the Sejm,followed by quick approval from the upper house. Coming on the day that Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán, suffered his biggest electoral blow in a decade, losing control of the capital, Budapest, the worse-than-forecast Polish result marked a setback for eastern Europe’s right-wing nationalists.
PiS’s political strategy has been to combine a big increase in social spending in certain areas with nationalist and traditionalist rhetoric and an uncompromising authoritarian political style that has exacerbated existing divisions in Polish society. During its first term in power, PiS gained a reputation for pushing through legislation at breakneck speed, with hastily called late-night sittings of the Sejm, followed by quick approval from the upper house.
Its increases in welfare spending were made against the backdrop of a booming economy and record consumer confidence. A central issue in these elections was the flagship child benefit programme 500+, which gives families 500 zloty (£100) a month per child. The opposition Civic Platform had opposed the policy before the 2015 parliamentary elections, arguing that it was unaffordable. But the party has since said it would retain the 500+ if elected. Observers argue that this U-turn and PiS’s ability to deliver the programme may have undermined the opposition’s credibility among voters.Sunday’s PiS victory could also prove a headache for Brussels and several European capitals. In government, the party has been an uncompromising and at times exasperating EU member, as illustrated by a farcical episode in 2017 when it tried to torpedo the re-election of Donald Tusk, a former leader of Civic Platform, as president of the European council. For years, the European commission has sparred with Warsaw over PiS’s attempts to assert direct control over the Polish judiciary, with several cases referred to the European court of justice. Under PiS, Poland has emerged as an active opponent of the liberal democratic values that underpin the EU, with European diplomats admitting in private that many in Brussels had hoped the problem would be taken out of their hands by Polish voters. “There was a hope that PiS would lose, but that has not materialised,” said Piotr Buras, the director of the Warsaw office of the European Council on Foreign Relations thinktank. “This is not just an issue for Brussels, but for several European capitals; they will have to deal with an emboldened partner. PiS’s political strategy was to combine a big increase in social spending in certain areas, made against the backdrop of a booming economy and record consumer confidence, with nationalist and traditionalist rhetoric and an uncompromising authoritarian political style that has exacerbated divisions in Polish society.
Even an underwhelming PiS victory, however, could pose problems for Brussels and other European capitals. In government, the party has been an uncompromising and at times exasperating EU member, as illustrated by a farcical episode in 2017 when it tried to torpedo the re-election of Donald Tusk, a former leader of Civic Platform, as president of the European council.For years, the European commission has sparred with Warsaw over PiS’s attempts to assert direct control over the Polish judiciary, with several cases referred to the European court of justice.
Under PiS, Poland has emerged as an active opponent of the liberal democratic values that underpin the EU, with European diplomats admitting in private that many in Brussels had hoped the problem would be taken out of their hands by Polish voters. “There was a hope that PiS would lose, but that has not materialised,” said Piotr Buras, the director of the Warsaw office of the European Council on Foreign Relations thinktank. “This is not just an issue for Brussels, but for several European capitals; they will have to deal with an emboldened partner.
“The dilemma is that Poland under PiS is already a semi-authoritarian regime and it is only likely to deteriorate further. There will be a temptation to turn a blind eye to abuses and normalise relations, but this could come at a cost to their red lines on democratic values.”“The dilemma is that Poland under PiS is already a semi-authoritarian regime and it is only likely to deteriorate further. There will be a temptation to turn a blind eye to abuses and normalise relations, but this could come at a cost to their red lines on democratic values.”
Additional reporting by Marcin GoclowskiAdditional reporting by Marcin Goclowski
PolandPoland
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