This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/16/china-hong-kong-xi-jinping
The article has changed 7 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
| Version 0 | Version 1 |
|---|---|
| Why China fears sending the tanks into Hong Kong | Why China fears sending the tanks into Hong Kong |
| (1 day later) | |
| Two decades ago, many scholars began predicting that as China’s creation of wealth continued to speed ahead, the country would cross a threshold. Once a substantial new middle class had been created, they reasoned, politics would tip decisively in a more participatory, possibly even democratic, direction. | Two decades ago, many scholars began predicting that as China’s creation of wealth continued to speed ahead, the country would cross a threshold. Once a substantial new middle class had been created, they reasoned, politics would tip decisively in a more participatory, possibly even democratic, direction. |
| But while robust economic growth continued, the first decade of this century came and went with no severe challenge to China’s authoritarian model. And under China’s present leader, Xi Jinping, who took office in 2013, it has only become more entrenched: last year he changed the longstanding rules of succession to allow himself to remain in charge for life. | But while robust economic growth continued, the first decade of this century came and went with no severe challenge to China’s authoritarian model. And under China’s present leader, Xi Jinping, who took office in 2013, it has only become more entrenched: last year he changed the longstanding rules of succession to allow himself to remain in charge for life. |
| Now, however, this long-expected revolt of the middle class has arrived – not from China itself, but from Hong Kong. And more than any other problem China faces, the ongoing crisis in the city could determine Xi’s standing and his country’s direction over the next few years. | Now, however, this long-expected revolt of the middle class has arrived – not from China itself, but from Hong Kong. And more than any other problem China faces, the ongoing crisis in the city could determine Xi’s standing and his country’s direction over the next few years. |
| A new Hong Kong extradition law is proposed, which would allow people to be transferred to mainland China for a variety of crimes. Residents fear it could lead to politically motivated extraditions into China's much harsher judicial system. | A new Hong Kong extradition law is proposed, which would allow people to be transferred to mainland China for a variety of crimes. Residents fear it could lead to politically motivated extraditions into China's much harsher judicial system. |
| Large public demonstrations start as thousands march in the streets to protest against the extradition bill. | Large public demonstrations start as thousands march in the streets to protest against the extradition bill. |
| Hong Kong lawmakers scuffle in parliament during a row over the law. | Hong Kong lawmakers scuffle in parliament during a row over the law. |
| Hong Kong's leader, Carrie Lam, introduces concessions to the extradition bill, including limiting the scope of extraditable offences, but critics say they are not enough. | Hong Kong's leader, Carrie Lam, introduces concessions to the extradition bill, including limiting the scope of extraditable offences, but critics say they are not enough. |
| The scale of protests continues to increase as more than half a million people take to the streets. Police use rubber bullets and teargas against the biggest protests Hong Kong has seen for decades. | The scale of protests continues to increase as more than half a million people take to the streets. Police use rubber bullets and teargas against the biggest protests Hong Kong has seen for decades. |
| Lam says the proposed extradition law has been postponed indefinitely. | Lam says the proposed extradition law has been postponed indefinitely. |
| The protests continue as demonstrators storm the Legislative Council, destroying pictures, daubing graffiti on the walls and flying the old flag of Hong Kong emblazoned with the British union flag. The protests coincide with the 22nd anniversary of the handover of Hong Kong from the UK back to China. | The protests continue as demonstrators storm the Legislative Council, destroying pictures, daubing graffiti on the walls and flying the old flag of Hong Kong emblazoned with the British union flag. The protests coincide with the 22nd anniversary of the handover of Hong Kong from the UK back to China. |
| Armed men in white T-shirts thought to be supporting the Chinese government attack passengers and passers-by in Yuen Long metro station, while nearby police take no action. | Armed men in white T-shirts thought to be supporting the Chinese government attack passengers and passers-by in Yuen Long metro station, while nearby police take no action. |
| 44 protesters are charged with rioting, which further antagonises the anti-extradition bill movement. | 44 protesters are charged with rioting, which further antagonises the anti-extradition bill movement. |
| By now the protest movement has coalesced around five key demands: complete withdrawal of the proposed extradition bill, withdrawal of the use of the word "riot" in relation to the protests, unconditional release of arrested protesters and charges against them dropped, an independent inquiry into police behaviour and the implementation of genuine universal suffrage. | By now the protest movement has coalesced around five key demands: complete withdrawal of the proposed extradition bill, withdrawal of the use of the word "riot" in relation to the protests, unconditional release of arrested protesters and charges against them dropped, an independent inquiry into police behaviour and the implementation of genuine universal suffrage. |
| The mass protests enter their fifteenth week, with police resorting to teargas and water cannon against the demonstrators, and a wave of "doxxing" using digital techniques to unmask police and protesters as a new front in the battle. | The mass protests enter their fifteenth week, with police resorting to teargas and water cannon against the demonstrators, and a wave of "doxxing" using digital techniques to unmask police and protesters as a new front in the battle. |
| Police shoot a protester with live ammunition for the first time, as demonstrations continue on the day marking the 70th anniversary of the declaration of the People's Republic of China. | Police shoot a protester with live ammunition for the first time, as demonstrations continue on the day marking the 70th anniversary of the declaration of the People's Republic of China. |
| The first charges are brought against protesters for covering their faces, after authorities bring in new laws banning face masks in order to make it easier to identify or detain protesters. | The first charges are brought against protesters for covering their faces, after authorities bring in new laws banning face masks in order to make it easier to identify or detain protesters. |
| Hong Kong officials spark outrage in the city as it revealed that nearly a third of protesters arrested since June have been children. Seven hundred and 50 out of the 2,379 people arrested were under 18, and 104 were under 16. | Hong Kong officials spark outrage in the city as it revealed that nearly a third of protesters arrested since June have been children. Seven hundred and 50 out of the 2,379 people arrested were under 18, and 104 were under 16. |
| Lam is forced to deliver a key annual policy speech via video link after after being heckled in parliament, as the legislative council resumed sessions after it was suspended on 12 June. Later in the day one of the protest leaders, Jimmy Sham, was attacked by assailants wielding hammers and knives. | |
| The problem of open-ended civil unrest in Hong Kong, which has been punctuated by rising acts of violence and vandalism carried out by a distinct but hardline minority, is a reflection of China’s new assertiveness under Xi – an assertiveness that marks a break with the caution of the post-Mao era. It can be seen in Xi’s signature undertaking, the Belt and Road Initiative – an infrastructure building project with global ambitions. Or, most recently, the flaunting of new weapons systems during the military parade commemorating the 70th anniversary of Communist party rule – a declaration of China’s intention to rival American military power more openly than at any time in the recent past. | The problem of open-ended civil unrest in Hong Kong, which has been punctuated by rising acts of violence and vandalism carried out by a distinct but hardline minority, is a reflection of China’s new assertiveness under Xi – an assertiveness that marks a break with the caution of the post-Mao era. It can be seen in Xi’s signature undertaking, the Belt and Road Initiative – an infrastructure building project with global ambitions. Or, most recently, the flaunting of new weapons systems during the military parade commemorating the 70th anniversary of Communist party rule – a declaration of China’s intention to rival American military power more openly than at any time in the recent past. |
| Under Xi, China has been intervening much more directly in the governance of Hong Kong. The most notable example of this was the abduction to China of Hong Kong booksellers who traded in titles critical of Beijing or historical accounts that undermined Chinese orthodoxy. Beijing has also given quiet but clear support to a variety of restrictions on the city’s democracy that have strongly eroded Hong Kong’s sense of generous if limited legal and political autonomy – a notion captured by Beijing’s own slogan for the city’s dispensation, “one country, two systems”. | Under Xi, China has been intervening much more directly in the governance of Hong Kong. The most notable example of this was the abduction to China of Hong Kong booksellers who traded in titles critical of Beijing or historical accounts that undermined Chinese orthodoxy. Beijing has also given quiet but clear support to a variety of restrictions on the city’s democracy that have strongly eroded Hong Kong’s sense of generous if limited legal and political autonomy – a notion captured by Beijing’s own slogan for the city’s dispensation, “one country, two systems”. |
| Most notably, these have included the banning of pro-democracy political candidates and the proposal in February by Hong Kong’s chief executive, Carrie Lam, of the measure that sparked the ongoing protests: a law that would allow for the extradition of criminal suspects from Hong Kong to mainland China. Public approval of Lam has plummeted since then, and her position hasn’t been helped by her acknowledgment that many of her options are determined by Beijing. This has effectively meant refusing concessions on the protesters’ main demands – such as for direct election of the city’s leaders and an independent investigation of violent abuses by the police – and only recently grudgingly offering to formally withdraw the extradition proposal. Notably, she has also said that Beijing will not allow her to step down, another of the demonstrators’ key demands. | Most notably, these have included the banning of pro-democracy political candidates and the proposal in February by Hong Kong’s chief executive, Carrie Lam, of the measure that sparked the ongoing protests: a law that would allow for the extradition of criminal suspects from Hong Kong to mainland China. Public approval of Lam has plummeted since then, and her position hasn’t been helped by her acknowledgment that many of her options are determined by Beijing. This has effectively meant refusing concessions on the protesters’ main demands – such as for direct election of the city’s leaders and an independent investigation of violent abuses by the police – and only recently grudgingly offering to formally withdraw the extradition proposal. Notably, she has also said that Beijing will not allow her to step down, another of the demonstrators’ key demands. |
| This blocking of any path forward that would permit more self-determination under Chinese sovereignty – as promised when Britain handed Hong Kong back to the mainland in 1997 – has led to a marked radicalisation of Hong Kong’s population this year, and created a revolt of the middle class. The peaceful demonstrations that have regularly drawn hundreds of thousands of residents into the streets since the summer have included many older people, as well as plenty of residents from other segments of the population long assumed to be conservative or at least acquiescent, whether civil servants or business people. | This blocking of any path forward that would permit more self-determination under Chinese sovereignty – as promised when Britain handed Hong Kong back to the mainland in 1997 – has led to a marked radicalisation of Hong Kong’s population this year, and created a revolt of the middle class. The peaceful demonstrations that have regularly drawn hundreds of thousands of residents into the streets since the summer have included many older people, as well as plenty of residents from other segments of the population long assumed to be conservative or at least acquiescent, whether civil servants or business people. |
| The situation might have unfolded far more gently had the city been handled with more suppleness or tolerance. But the central logic of power under Xi’s leadership has always been to push for more control, both domestically and within the region. The drive to impose tighter reins on Hong Kong now risks all kinds of unwanted damage. This only begins with the radicalisation of the Hong Kong population, and harm to the city’s economy and reputation as a dependable business mecca. | The situation might have unfolded far more gently had the city been handled with more suppleness or tolerance. But the central logic of power under Xi’s leadership has always been to push for more control, both domestically and within the region. The drive to impose tighter reins on Hong Kong now risks all kinds of unwanted damage. This only begins with the radicalisation of the Hong Kong population, and harm to the city’s economy and reputation as a dependable business mecca. |
| Just in the past fortnight, the effects of the crisis in Hong Kong spread in an unanticipated way to the US. When an executive for an NBA team expressed support on Twitter for the Hong Kong protesters, Chinese companies immediately cut their ties to the American basketball league in lockstep. In a country where most people know little about China, this was the first time that many became aware of the lengths to which Beijing will go to censor speech and impose conformity. | Just in the past fortnight, the effects of the crisis in Hong Kong spread in an unanticipated way to the US. When an executive for an NBA team expressed support on Twitter for the Hong Kong protesters, Chinese companies immediately cut their ties to the American basketball league in lockstep. In a country where most people know little about China, this was the first time that many became aware of the lengths to which Beijing will go to censor speech and impose conformity. |
| From here, Beijing’s choices in Hong Kong will not grow easier. The ultimate option, of course, is to mount a police or military intervention from the mainland in order to put down the protests. But at what cost? Hong Kong would lose forever its status as a global, cosmopolitan city, a goose that lays golden eggs for China. Since Deng Xiaoping introduced capitalism to China, Hong Kong has served as a critical business and investment portal for the country: a place where foreign companies feel it is safer for them to be based because of the independent judicial system and a banking structure that allows the free conversion of currencies and unlimited international transfers. As China has grown vastly richer it has become less dependent on Hong Kong for such purposes, but lots of investment into China still passes through the city. | From here, Beijing’s choices in Hong Kong will not grow easier. The ultimate option, of course, is to mount a police or military intervention from the mainland in order to put down the protests. But at what cost? Hong Kong would lose forever its status as a global, cosmopolitan city, a goose that lays golden eggs for China. Since Deng Xiaoping introduced capitalism to China, Hong Kong has served as a critical business and investment portal for the country: a place where foreign companies feel it is safer for them to be based because of the independent judicial system and a banking structure that allows the free conversion of currencies and unlimited international transfers. As China has grown vastly richer it has become less dependent on Hong Kong for such purposes, but lots of investment into China still passes through the city. |
| Hong Kong: Carrie Lam hints at further measures to suppress protests | Hong Kong: Carrie Lam hints at further measures to suppress protests |
| A takeover of Hong Kong by force would also destroy Beijing’s proposition – tattered as it may already be – that Taiwan should accept unification with China on the basis of one country, two systems. Recent events in Hong Kong have already strongly lifted the election prospects for the governing party in Taiwan, whose leader Tsai Ing-wen favours continued defiance of Beijing. | A takeover of Hong Kong by force would also destroy Beijing’s proposition – tattered as it may already be – that Taiwan should accept unification with China on the basis of one country, two systems. Recent events in Hong Kong have already strongly lifted the election prospects for the governing party in Taiwan, whose leader Tsai Ing-wen favours continued defiance of Beijing. |
| Most unpredictable, though, is how this will play in China itself. A catastrophic crackdown in Hong Kong could go very badly for Xi, a leader who has tried to project an aura of resolve and near infallibility. Today Beijing trumpets that its 1.4 billion people stand united in their opposition to Hong Kong’s democracy movement. But that is a claim only sustainable in an environment of suffocating media control in China. | Most unpredictable, though, is how this will play in China itself. A catastrophic crackdown in Hong Kong could go very badly for Xi, a leader who has tried to project an aura of resolve and near infallibility. Today Beijing trumpets that its 1.4 billion people stand united in their opposition to Hong Kong’s democracy movement. But that is a claim only sustainable in an environment of suffocating media control in China. |
| If mass arrests or tanks were used to crush a protest movement aimed at securing democratic concessions, members of China’s own large and growing middle class would begin to see this not just as a defeat for Hong Kong, but as a loss for their own society as well. | If mass arrests or tanks were used to crush a protest movement aimed at securing democratic concessions, members of China’s own large and growing middle class would begin to see this not just as a defeat for Hong Kong, but as a loss for their own society as well. |
| • Howard W French is an academic and author. His last book is Everything Under the Heavens: How the Past Helps Shape China’s Push for Global Power | • Howard W French is an academic and author. His last book is Everything Under the Heavens: How the Past Helps Shape China’s Push for Global Power |
| Hong Kong | Hong Kong |
| Opinion | Opinion |
| Carrie Lam | Carrie Lam |
| Xi Jinping | Xi Jinping |
| China | China |
| Asia Pacific | Asia Pacific |
| Protest | Protest |
| comment | comment |
| Share on Facebook | Share on Facebook |
| Share on Twitter | Share on Twitter |
| Share via Email | Share via Email |
| Share on LinkedIn | Share on LinkedIn |
| Share on Pinterest | Share on Pinterest |
| Share on WhatsApp | Share on WhatsApp |
| Share on Messenger | Share on Messenger |
| Reuse this content | Reuse this content |