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Brexit: Marathon makes EU eager to reach finish line | Brexit: Marathon makes EU eager to reach finish line |
(about 8 hours later) | |
The twists and turns of Brexit - after more than three years of negotiations - will dominate an EU summit on Thursday, amid signs of an emerging deal. | |
Negotiations to nail down complex arrangements for Northern Ireland, the main sticking point, appear to have produced a draft acceptable to the EU. | |
But UK PM Boris Johnson does not have a majority in parliament and relies on unionist Northern Ireland MPs. | |
They have issued a statement opposing the draft "as things stand". | |
The British pound fell considerably moments after the statement by DUP leader Arlene Foster was released. | |
The summit is due to begin later on Thursday. | |
Frustration is palpable on both sides: Mr Johnson wants the UK to leave the EU on 31 October "do or die"; and in Brussels the BBC's Katya Adler tweeted that "EU diplomatic and political sources I speak to are sooo fatigued with this process". | Frustration is palpable on both sides: Mr Johnson wants the UK to leave the EU on 31 October "do or die"; and in Brussels the BBC's Katya Adler tweeted that "EU diplomatic and political sources I speak to are sooo fatigued with this process". |
The EU has already extended the UK's Article 50 withdrawal negotiations twice. | The EU has already extended the UK's Article 50 withdrawal negotiations twice. |
But the rush to finalise a deal this week is causing alarm in some quarters. | But the rush to finalise a deal this week is causing alarm in some quarters. |
EU officials expect another extension - perhaps shorter than three months - will still be needed to resolve legal technicalities. | EU officials expect another extension - perhaps shorter than three months - will still be needed to resolve legal technicalities. |
Two anxieties loom large for EU governments: | Two anxieties loom large for EU governments: |
They have other pressing issues to deal with, such as eurozone integration, the migrant crisis and climate change. | They have other pressing issues to deal with, such as eurozone integration, the migrant crisis and climate change. |
On Wednesday evening, Tony Connelly of Irish broadcaster RTE tweeted that "all outstanding issues with the exception of VAT are now resolved", quoting an unnamed EU source in Brussels. | On Wednesday evening, Tony Connelly of Irish broadcaster RTE tweeted that "all outstanding issues with the exception of VAT are now resolved", quoting an unnamed EU source in Brussels. |
So, a draft Brexit deal could be signed off at this summit. But there are doubts over whether the PM will get a majority at Westminster to approve it. | So, a draft Brexit deal could be signed off at this summit. But there are doubts over whether the PM will get a majority at Westminster to approve it. |
A cross-party group of MPs opposed to Brexit was in Brussels on Wednesday, insisting that any deal should be put to a new UK referendum. | A cross-party group of MPs opposed to Brexit was in Brussels on Wednesday, insisting that any deal should be put to a new UK referendum. |
Pro-Remain MPs argue that in 2016 no such deal to leave both the EU single market and customs union was put to voters. | Pro-Remain MPs argue that in 2016 no such deal to leave both the EU single market and customs union was put to voters. |
Why has Brexit focused so much on Northern Ireland? | Why has Brexit focused so much on Northern Ireland? |
Both the EU and UK pledged to prevent the return of a "hard" border in Northern Ireland. | Both the EU and UK pledged to prevent the return of a "hard" border in Northern Ireland. |
But when the UK leaves, that border becomes an external border of the EU. | But when the UK leaves, that border becomes an external border of the EU. |
The Republic of Ireland has warned all along that any customs checks on the border would jeopardise the 1998 peace deal - the Good Friday Agreement. | The Republic of Ireland has warned all along that any customs checks on the border would jeopardise the 1998 peace deal - the Good Friday Agreement. |
But once the UK leaves the EU customs union and single market the risk, as Brussels sees it, is that the porous border could attract smuggling and fraud. | But once the UK leaves the EU customs union and single market the risk, as Brussels sees it, is that the porous border could attract smuggling and fraud. |
The EU customs union means: | The EU customs union means: |
The single market means the EU is treated as one territory, with no regulatory obstacles to the free movement of goods and services inside the bloc. | The single market means the EU is treated as one territory, with no regulatory obstacles to the free movement of goods and services inside the bloc. |
The deal taking shape appears to keep Northern Ireland within a UK customs union, but aligned with EU regulatory standards. | The deal taking shape appears to keep Northern Ireland within a UK customs union, but aligned with EU regulatory standards. |
To avoid land border checks, EU tariffs could be imposed on goods arriving at Northern Ireland ports and Belfast airport from the UK. | To avoid land border checks, EU tariffs could be imposed on goods arriving at Northern Ireland ports and Belfast airport from the UK. |
Refunds could be claimed for goods which stay in Northern Ireland, and do not enter the EU via the Republic. | Refunds could be claimed for goods which stay in Northern Ireland, and do not enter the EU via the Republic. |
It all means extra costs and paperwork. There will be many sceptics in Northern Ireland, where a majority voted to remain in the EU. | It all means extra costs and paperwork. There will be many sceptics in Northern Ireland, where a majority voted to remain in the EU. |
Why is the 'level playing field' an issue? | Why is the 'level playing field' an issue? |
The "level playing field" was included in the Withdrawal Agreement negotiated by Boris Johnson's predecessor Theresa May. | The "level playing field" was included in the Withdrawal Agreement negotiated by Boris Johnson's predecessor Theresa May. |
It was a commitment to abide by certain EU rules in exchange for market access. Those rules include environmental standards, workers' rights and services. | It was a commitment to abide by certain EU rules in exchange for market access. Those rules include environmental standards, workers' rights and services. |
But Mr Johnson insists the UK must be free to sign future trade deals globally without being tied to EU rules. | But Mr Johnson insists the UK must be free to sign future trade deals globally without being tied to EU rules. |
In that case, the EU argues, the UK cannot expect any privileged access to the single market. | In that case, the EU argues, the UK cannot expect any privileged access to the single market. |
Chief negotiator Michel Barnier has told the UK repeatedly that it cannot "have its cake and eat it" or "cherry pick" from EU agreements once it has left the bloc. | Chief negotiator Michel Barnier has told the UK repeatedly that it cannot "have its cake and eat it" or "cherry pick" from EU agreements once it has left the bloc. |
German Chancellor Angela Merkel raised the issue recently, warning that "Britain will develop into another competitor on the doorstep of Europe". | German Chancellor Angela Merkel raised the issue recently, warning that "Britain will develop into another competitor on the doorstep of Europe". |
Could UK politics still block or delay Brexit? | Could UK politics still block or delay Brexit? |
Yes. | Yes. |
Boris Johnson said he would "rather be dead in a ditch" than agree to extend Brexit beyond 31 October. | Boris Johnson said he would "rather be dead in a ditch" than agree to extend Brexit beyond 31 October. |
But his government is now legally obliged to comply with the Benn Act. It requires the government to request another extension to Article 50 if Parliament has not approved a withdrawal deal by 19 October. | But his government is now legally obliged to comply with the Benn Act. It requires the government to request another extension to Article 50 if Parliament has not approved a withdrawal deal by 19 October. |
The postponement of Brexit would be until 31 January. | The postponement of Brexit would be until 31 January. |
The fate of any Brexit deal is uncertain, not only because Theresa May's deal was rejected three times by the House of Commons. | The fate of any Brexit deal is uncertain, not only because Theresa May's deal was rejected three times by the House of Commons. |
A deal would also require the unanimous approval of EU leaders and a "Yes" vote in the European Parliament. | A deal would also require the unanimous approval of EU leaders and a "Yes" vote in the European Parliament. |
And an early UK election is now widely expected, adding to the uncertainty. | And an early UK election is now widely expected, adding to the uncertainty. |
Whatever happens in the Brussels negotiations, Brexit remains a hugely divisive issue in the UK. | Whatever happens in the Brussels negotiations, Brexit remains a hugely divisive issue in the UK. |
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