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What to Watch For in Today’s Brexit Vote: Live Updates What to Watch For in Today’s Brexit Vote: Live Updates
(32 minutes later)
Three times before, Britain’s Parliament took up a thorny divorce agreement between Britain and European Union. And three times before, Parliament resoundingly voted it down.Three times before, Britain’s Parliament took up a thorny divorce agreement between Britain and European Union. And three times before, Parliament resoundingly voted it down.
The first deal was presented by Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s predecessor, Theresa May. And the process has driven Britons to anger, frustration, relief and despair. But on Thursday, Mr. Johnson announced that he and European leaders had agreed on a new Brexit deal, raising hopes of a breakthrough in the nation’s yearslong quagmire. The first deal was presented by Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s predecessor, Theresa May. And the process has driven Britons to anger, frustration, relief and despair. But on Thursday, Mr. Johnson announced that he and European leaders had agreed on a new Brexit deal, creating the potential for a breakthrough in the nation’s yearslong quagmire.
Now, he must get British lawmakers to approve it. Parliament will sit in a special “super Saturday” session for the first time since the invasion of the Falklands in 1982. The prime minister, who has vowed to get the country out of the bloc by the deadline, Oct. 31, has worked the phones, lobbying, cajoling and pleading with lawmakers to back him.Now, he must get British lawmakers to approve it. Parliament will sit in a special “super Saturday” session for the first time since the invasion of the Falklands in 1982. The prime minister, who has vowed to get the country out of the bloc by the deadline, Oct. 31, has worked the phones, lobbying, cajoling and pleading with lawmakers to back him.
He will present his deal to lawmakers around 9:30 a.m. local time, and they will begin the debate. There are likely to be impassioned speeches from Conservative and opposition leaders. Around 2:30 p.m., the first vote is set to occur.He will present his deal to lawmakers around 9:30 a.m. local time, and they will begin the debate. There are likely to be impassioned speeches from Conservative and opposition leaders. Around 2:30 p.m., the first vote is set to occur.
Mr. Johnson needs 320 votes to pass his deal, and the vote is too close to call. Mr. Johnson needs 320 votes to pass his deal, and the vote is too close to call. The House of Commons has 650 seats. Minus those who do not vote — the speaker, the three deputy speakers and the seven members of Northern Ireland’s Sinn Féin, who do not take their seats in Parliament — that leaves an electorate of 639 lawmakers.
Mr. Johnson’s odds are complicated by the fact that he does not have a working majority in Parliament and has not won a major vote there in the three months he has been in office.
Many of the lawmakers he needs to back his deal include the 21 members of Parliament he purged from the Conservative Party after they voted for a measure to prevent Britain from leaving the European Union without a deal.
And his allies in Northern Ireland, 10 lawmakers from the Democratic Unionist Party, flatly rejected his Brexit deal, accusing Mr. Johnson of selling the territory short by accepting checks on some goods passing through Northern Ireland to get a deal. And many people in Northern Ireland said they felt betrayed by the draft plan.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson appears to be betting that enough lawmakers will be fed up with the three years of haggling and will hold their noses and vote for his Brexit deal, seeing it as better than the alternatives of a no-deal exit or no Brexit at all.Prime Minister Boris Johnson appears to be betting that enough lawmakers will be fed up with the three years of haggling and will hold their noses and vote for his Brexit deal, seeing it as better than the alternatives of a no-deal exit or no Brexit at all.
But even if he loses, analysts say, Mr. Johnson may be hoping that his ability to bring home a deal will win him a public mandate to pull Britain out of the bloc as swiftly as possible.But even if he loses, analysts say, Mr. Johnson may be hoping that his ability to bring home a deal will win him a public mandate to pull Britain out of the bloc as swiftly as possible.
Then, he is likely to call for a general election in the coming weeks.Then, he is likely to call for a general election in the coming weeks.
Some lawmakers who support Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal don’t trust him or his hard-line Brexit backers, fearing that their colleagues could pull a procedural trick to force Britain to crash out of the European Union without a deal.Some lawmakers who support Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal don’t trust him or his hard-line Brexit backers, fearing that their colleagues could pull a procedural trick to force Britain to crash out of the European Union without a deal.
So a former Conservative lawmaker, Oliver Letwin, whom Mr. Johnson had kicked out of the party, will put forward an arcane amendment as sort of an insurance policy to make approval of the deal conditional on also passing necessary legislation. So a former Conservative lawmaker, Oliver Letwin, whom Mr. Johnson had kicked out of the party, will put forward an amendment as sort of an insurance policy to make approval of the deal conditional on also passing necessary legislation.
In essence, if the so-called Letwin Amendment is chosen by the speaker of the House of Commons, John Bercow, and approved by lawmakers, it would turn Parliament’s up-or-down vote on Mr. Johnson’s deal into a much weaker motion, and Saturday would not be the day that lawmakers will fully endorse or reject the Brexit deal.In essence, if the so-called Letwin Amendment is chosen by the speaker of the House of Commons, John Bercow, and approved by lawmakers, it would turn Parliament’s up-or-down vote on Mr. Johnson’s deal into a much weaker motion, and Saturday would not be the day that lawmakers will fully endorse or reject the Brexit deal.
Mr. Johnson would be forced by law to send a letter to the European Union on Saturday night to request an extension of the Brexit deadline, currently Oct. 31.Mr. Johnson would be forced by law to send a letter to the European Union on Saturday night to request an extension of the Brexit deadline, currently Oct. 31.
Then, before Brexit could happened, lawmakers would get to not only vote on Mr. Johnson’s deal, but also to debate, amend and vote on actual legislation putting that deal into law.Then, before Brexit could happened, lawmakers would get to not only vote on Mr. Johnson’s deal, but also to debate, amend and vote on actual legislation putting that deal into law.
Reporting was contributed by Stephen Castle, Mark Landler, Ben Mueller, Alan Yuhas and Megan Specia.Reporting was contributed by Stephen Castle, Mark Landler, Ben Mueller, Alan Yuhas and Megan Specia.