This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2019/oct/23/coalition-labor-morrison-albanese-drought-asylum-politics-live
The article has changed 16 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
| Version 1 | Version 2 |
|---|---|
| Peter Dutton accuses Labor of highlighting 'red herring' on asylum claims – politics live | Peter Dutton accuses Labor of highlighting 'red herring' on asylum claims – politics live |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| I usually hold what I call a “thinking pen”. The new Treasury Secretary Dr Steven Kennedy has a “thinking clip” while the Finance Minister @MathiasCormann has a pen. #estimates @AmyRemeikis @murpharoo @mpbowers pic.twitter.com/GUcoKHDDgO | |
| Andrew Leigh spoke on Australia’s falling productivity during a matter of public importance debate yesterday: | |
| Productivity is the engine of the economy and it has basically stalled under this government according to its own Productivity Commission. | |
| After a generation in which labour productivity had run at about two per cent, it’s fallen most recently to 0.2 per cent, just one tenth of its previous level. The Productivity Commission calls the results ‘troubling’ and ‘mediocre’. | |
| In fact, productivity is going backwards in farming, in mining, in construction, in transport and in retail. | |
| In those sectors, workers are producing less per hour than they were the year before. The Productivity Commission often talks about capital deepening but now it has had to come up with a new term to describe what’s going on under this government—capital shallowing.” | |
| On Dave Sharma’s assertion this case could have an impact on the broader relationship between Australia and Israel, he added this: | |
| I’d just think we have a good and productive relationship with Israel but this is increasingly becoming an irritant and a focal point in the relationship. | |
| To state the obvious, when this is in the news all the time it starts to affect Israel’s reputation in Australia and it affects the way we interact. They have said this publicly before, it threatens to have an impact on our relationship.I notice the Israeli ambassador to Australia has said the same thing. | |
| Dassi and Nicole have asked Scott Morrison to raise the issue directly with the Israeli government. | |
| It feels like we started again. There has still not been any extradition trial. We are here to ask the Australian government to do more. Enough is enough. We don’t want platitudes, we want action,” Nicole said. | |
| Dave Sharma: | |
| Thank you, Josh, and thank you Dassi and Nicole for the courage you have shown throughout the process. I also want to to extend my thanks to Josh McNamara. | |
| Malka Leifer fled Australia in 2008. She was charged with 74 separate counts of sexual abuse relating to her time as principal in 2013. | |
| We first made an extradition request in 2014. | |
| I remember was ambassador to Israel at the time. Since that time five years have elapsed. | |
| There have been over 60 hearings in court in Israel and yet we seem to be no closer to having Malka Leifer extradited. | |
| Why don’t doubt the independence and integrity of the Israeli legal system, but as my friend Josh Bunes said, enough is enough. | |
| And we are here today to send a very fair message to Israel that this case is a high priority for Australia and it is one we will be ceaseless in pursuing and it is one that unless resolved soon will have an impact on the broader relationship. | |
| Josh Burns on Dassi Erlich and Nicole Myer: | |
| They have spoken out because they have had the most awful, awful injustice committed to them, but they have spoken out so others don’t have to do and they have spoken out because what was accepted yesterday will no longer be accepted in Australia today. | |
| And so today I’d say Australia stands with them, that they have done a service to their country and community and we are all very proud of them and we thank them for all of the advocacy. | |
| They also want to thank Dave Sharma and the government for working with us today and for helping put on this program. This is a really important thing. This is about making sure that justice is done and that Malka Leifer is returned to Australia. | |
| It has been almost a decade since Malka Leifer has fled Australia and this has to end. | |
| Enough is enough. And today we send a clear message to our friends and counterparts in Israe lthat we will not less, that we, as Australia’s, on both sides of the house, will not rest until Malka Leifer is returned to Australia. | |
| Dassi Erlich and Nicole Meyer, who have accused the former principal of Melbourne’s ultra-Orthodox Adass Isreal School, Malka Leifer, of abuse are in parliament, lobbying for help in ensuring her extradition to Australia to face charges. | |
| Leifer left Australia for Isreal in 2008, after allegations she abused female students were first made. | |
| Liberal MP Dave Sharma and Labor MP Josh Burns have come together in a show of bipartisan support, to try and help the women. | |
| Penny Wong is in defence estimates, where the committee has heard that five defence buildings have flammable cladding – which in “most cases” will have to be replaced. | |
| But productivity is down, and they don’t really know why: | |
| There is no single explanation for the slower rate of productivity growth, and we are unsure of how much of the current slowing is cyclical and how much is structural. This is an area of ongoing analysis and research in Treasury and elsewhere. | |
| We do know that business investment is important to supporting productivity growth, with capital deepening – that is having more capital available for each worker — accounting for around 23 of labour productivity over the past 30 years in Australia. | |
| Given historically low interest rates around the world it is somewhat of a puzzle that business investment has not grown faster. Partly this could reflect that the rates of return businesses use when looking at the viability of new opportunities, so called ‘hurdle rates’, have remained high despite lower interest rates. The currently uncertainties surrounding the global economy and significant technological advancements may be contributing to this. | |
| Structural factors may also be at play — it is not clear what business investment looks like in a world where more than two-thirds of our economy is now services based. | |
| Another issue in the Australian context is also one shared globally. In Australia, as elsewhere, inflation rates have remained subdued. In part this is related to slower wage growth, which has been slower than forecasters around the world expected. And while no-one has come up with a complete explanation, there are a range of explanations that go some way to shedding light on the phenomenon. | |
| One factor that may be affecting the relationship between unemployment and wage growth in Australia is that the traditional relationship between spare capacity in the labour market and the unemployment rate may be changing. One tangible way we can see this is that the rate of underemployment, which typically moves with the unemployment rate, has not declined to the same extent as the unemployment rate in this cycle as it has in the past. | |
| A number of other long-running changes in the labour market may also be affecting the relationship between unemployment and wage growth. An increasing concentration of economic activity in services industries, the effects of demographic and technological change and globalisation may also have played a role. Ultimately, it is difficult to draw firm conclusions on the effect of these structural factors on wage growth, given these factors have been occurring over a long timeframe and yet slow wage growth globally is a more recent phenomenon. | |
| With these uncertainties in mind, the pace of the pick-up in wage growth, and its relationship to the labour market, is likely to continue to be different than in previous economic cycles. | |
| On employment: | |
| Despite modest economic growth overall, labour market outcomes have been very positive. Employment growth has continued to be strong, increasing by more than 300,000 over the past year. | |
| While we have seen strong growth in employment, the unemployment rate has been broadly flat. This is because near-record rates of people are being drawn into employment and the labour force. | |
| We have seen a step up in participation in particular parts of our labour market – for those in older age cohorts and for women returning to the labour market after having children. While strong employment growth is very welcome, it does give rise to an issue that is not unique to Australia, that of recent low productivity growth. | |
| Labour productivity growth in Australia has slowed from an average rate of 1.5 per cent annually over the past 30 years to just 0.7 per cent annually over the past 5 years. Noting this rate is higher than all the G7 countries. | |
| A bit more on GDP impacts: | A bit more on GDP impacts: |
| Public sector spending has made a substantial contribution to economic growth in recent times, contributing 1 per cent to real GDP growth in 2018-19 and an average of 1.1 percentage points per year over the past four years. This compares with an average contribution of 0.8 percentage points over the past 20 years. | Public sector spending has made a substantial contribution to economic growth in recent times, contributing 1 per cent to real GDP growth in 2018-19 and an average of 1.1 percentage points per year over the past four years. This compares with an average contribution of 0.8 percentage points over the past 20 years. |
| Unfortunately, dry weather conditions have generally persisted in drought-affected areas. The drought conditions being experienced across large parts of Australia have weighed on domestic activity, with farm output directly detracting around 0.2 percentage points from real GDP growth in 2018-19, consistent with the PEFO forecast. | Unfortunately, dry weather conditions have generally persisted in drought-affected areas. The drought conditions being experienced across large parts of Australia have weighed on domestic activity, with farm output directly detracting around 0.2 percentage points from real GDP growth in 2018-19, consistent with the PEFO forecast. |
| As a result, the latest forecasts from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) predicted that the farm sector will continue to experience weakness, with the gross value of farm production expected to fall by nearly 5 per cent in 2019-20. | As a result, the latest forecasts from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) predicted that the farm sector will continue to experience weakness, with the gross value of farm production expected to fall by nearly 5 per cent in 2019-20. |
| Steven Kennedy on domestic economic conditions, continued: | |
| Turning to business investment, in 2018-19 mining investment fell by almost 12 per cent, detracting around 0.4 percentage points from real GDP growth over the year. Most of this fall reflects the completion of a number of large LNG projects that had been holding up activity. | Turning to business investment, in 2018-19 mining investment fell by almost 12 per cent, detracting around 0.4 percentage points from real GDP growth over the year. Most of this fall reflects the completion of a number of large LNG projects that had been holding up activity. |
| Non-mining business investment was weaker than expected in 2018-19. This is consistent with an easing in business conditions and confidence. | Non-mining business investment was weaker than expected in 2018-19. This is consistent with an easing in business conditions and confidence. |
| Despite the recent weakness in household consumption and investment, there are reasons to be optimistic about the outlook. | Despite the recent weakness in household consumption and investment, there are reasons to be optimistic about the outlook. |
| Recent data have shown early signs of recovery in the established housing market. Combined capital city housing prices have risen for the past three months for which we have data. Housing market turnover and auction clearance rates have also picked up. | Recent data have shown early signs of recovery in the established housing market. Combined capital city housing prices have risen for the past three months for which we have data. Housing market turnover and auction clearance rates have also picked up. |
| In addition, the recently legislated personal income tax cuts and declines in interest rates are providing support to disposable household incomes. We expect this to flow through to increased consumption. | In addition, the recently legislated personal income tax cuts and declines in interest rates are providing support to disposable household incomes. We expect this to flow through to increased consumption. |
| Although we have some indicators of consumption available for the September quarter, which have not shown a particularly large improvement, these are only partial. And it is difficult to know what these indicators would have been had the tax cuts not been implemented. | Although we have some indicators of consumption available for the September quarter, which have not shown a particularly large improvement, these are only partial. And it is difficult to know what these indicators would have been had the tax cuts not been implemented. |
| We will continue to assess the data on consumption as it becomes available, but it is worth noting that even if households initially use the tax cuts to pay down debt faster, this will still bring forward the point at which households could increase their spending. | We will continue to assess the data on consumption as it becomes available, but it is worth noting that even if households initially use the tax cuts to pay down debt faster, this will still bring forward the point at which households could increase their spending. |
| The substantial investment in mining production capacity continues to boost exports and there remains significant demand for our education and tourism services. In addition, the prospect for mining investment is positive. We expect mining investment to grow this year for the first time since the peak of the mining construction boom. | The substantial investment in mining production capacity continues to boost exports and there remains significant demand for our education and tourism services. In addition, the prospect for mining investment is positive. We expect mining investment to grow this year for the first time since the peak of the mining construction boom. |
| Steven Kennedy then turned his attention to the domestic conditions: | |
| Here in Australia growth slowed in the second half of 2018 before growing more strongly in the first half of 2019. The June quarter National Accounts showed real GDP grew by 1.4 per cent through the year to the June quarter, and in year-average terms the economy grew by 1.9 per cent in 2018-19. | Here in Australia growth slowed in the second half of 2018 before growing more strongly in the first half of 2019. The June quarter National Accounts showed real GDP grew by 1.4 per cent through the year to the June quarter, and in year-average terms the economy grew by 1.9 per cent in 2018-19. |
| A number of factors, which are temporary, have contributed to recent weakness in the economy. | A number of factors, which are temporary, have contributed to recent weakness in the economy. |
| Household consumption, the largest component of the economy, grew by 1.4 per cent through the year to the June quarter. A couple of factors are contributing to slower consumption growth. Household income growth has been modest, with strong growth in employment outcomes partly offset by weak wage and non-wage income growth. | Household consumption, the largest component of the economy, grew by 1.4 per cent through the year to the June quarter. A couple of factors are contributing to slower consumption growth. Household income growth has been modest, with strong growth in employment outcomes partly offset by weak wage and non-wage income growth. |
| In more recent years, the decline in housing prices has also played a role. | In more recent years, the decline in housing prices has also played a role. |
| This can directly affect spending via reducing confidence and increasing borrowing constraints. | This can directly affect spending via reducing confidence and increasing borrowing constraints. |
| The recent downturn in the housing market has had other, more direct, impacts on the Australian economy. | The recent downturn in the housing market has had other, more direct, impacts on the Australian economy. |
| Dwelling investment has fallen, as expected, by around 9 per cent over the past three quarters and continued weakness in residential building approvals suggests that dwelling investment is likely to continue to fall through 2019-20. | Dwelling investment has fallen, as expected, by around 9 per cent over the past three quarters and continued weakness in residential building approvals suggests that dwelling investment is likely to continue to fall through 2019-20. |
| Low rates of housing market turnover have led to significant falls in ownership transfer costs, which is a small component of GDP associated with the transfer of assets. Ownership transfer costs detracted 0.3 percentage points from total economic growth in the year to June 2019. | Low rates of housing market turnover have led to significant falls in ownership transfer costs, which is a small component of GDP associated with the transfer of assets. Ownership transfer costs detracted 0.3 percentage points from total economic growth in the year to June 2019. |
| Here is Steven Kennedy, the new Treasury boss, talking about those economic global headwinds: | |
| Over the past year global growth has slowed. Several major economies, notably Germany and the United Kingdom, as well as close trading partners in our region such as Korea and Singapore, have recently experienced negative quarters of growth. There has been little growth in global trade volumes this year, and manufacturing activity in a number of economies has weakened noticeably. | Over the past year global growth has slowed. Several major economies, notably Germany and the United Kingdom, as well as close trading partners in our region such as Korea and Singapore, have recently experienced negative quarters of growth. There has been little growth in global trade volumes this year, and manufacturing activity in a number of economies has weakened noticeably. |
| As a result, the IMF and the OECD have recently revised down their outlook for global growth over the next couple of years. Forecasts for global growth in 2019 are for the slowest rate of growth since the Global Financial Crisis. That said the forecasts for global growth in 2020 is for a pick up to the region of 3.0 to 3.4 per cent which is still reasonable. | As a result, the IMF and the OECD have recently revised down their outlook for global growth over the next couple of years. Forecasts for global growth in 2019 are for the slowest rate of growth since the Global Financial Crisis. That said the forecasts for global growth in 2020 is for a pick up to the region of 3.0 to 3.4 per cent which is still reasonable. |
| At play have been a number of factors, chief among them the ongoing, and still evolving, trade tensions between the United States and China. There is no doubt that trade tensions are having real effects on the global economy, which you see in trade data from the US and China. The IMF estimates that trade tensions could reduce world GDP by about 0.8 per cent by 2020. | At play have been a number of factors, chief among them the ongoing, and still evolving, trade tensions between the United States and China. There is no doubt that trade tensions are having real effects on the global economy, which you see in trade data from the US and China. The IMF estimates that trade tensions could reduce world GDP by about 0.8 per cent by 2020. |
| But trade tensions are not the only story. There are a number of other factors, including Brexit, financial stability concerns in some economies, the ongoing turmoil in Hong Kong, and geopolitical and economic difficulties in a number of emerging market economies. | But trade tensions are not the only story. There are a number of other factors, including Brexit, financial stability concerns in some economies, the ongoing turmoil in Hong Kong, and geopolitical and economic difficulties in a number of emerging market economies. |
| Combined, these factors are leading to an increased level of uncertainty around the outlook for the global economy. | Combined, these factors are leading to an increased level of uncertainty around the outlook for the global economy. |
| The APH website is back (and thank you to the DPS staffer who messaged me to say you were on it). | The APH website is back (and thank you to the DPS staffer who messaged me to say you were on it). |
| You’ll find all the estimates hearing details, here. | You’ll find all the estimates hearing details, here. |
| Karen Andrews has been in Washington, working on signing contracts to help develop the Australian space industry. | Karen Andrews has been in Washington, working on signing contracts to help develop the Australian space industry. |
| From her release: | From her release: |
| The agreements with the German Aerospace Centre, Italian Space Agency, New Zealand Space Agency and Maxar Technologies were signed alongside Minister for Industry, Science and Technology Karen Andrews at the 70th International Astronautical Congress in Washington DC. | The agreements with the German Aerospace Centre, Italian Space Agency, New Zealand Space Agency and Maxar Technologies were signed alongside Minister for Industry, Science and Technology Karen Andrews at the 70th International Astronautical Congress in Washington DC. |
| Minister Andrews said that international partnerships were key to growing Australia’s space industry. | Minister Andrews said that international partnerships were key to growing Australia’s space industry. |
| “Australia is never going to be the biggest player, but by engaging our businesses and researchers with other space agencies and industry players around the world, we can carve out our place globally and reap the economic rewards. | “Australia is never going to be the biggest player, but by engaging our businesses and researchers with other space agencies and industry players around the world, we can carve out our place globally and reap the economic rewards. |
| “A perfect example is our recent agreement with NASA. We are investing $150 million into Australian businesses so they can be part of the supply chain in the Moon to Mars mission. | “A perfect example is our recent agreement with NASA. We are investing $150 million into Australian businesses so they can be part of the supply chain in the Moon to Mars mission. |
| “These new agreements with the Italian, German and New Zealand space agencies build on that investment as we work to triple the size of the sector in Australia to $12 billion and create 20,000 new jobs by 2030.” | “These new agreements with the Italian, German and New Zealand space agencies build on that investment as we work to triple the size of the sector in Australia to $12 billion and create 20,000 new jobs by 2030.” |
| The Memorandum of Understanding with the Italian Space Agency will see us explore cooperative projects in areas including space policy, law and regulation, space weather, space education and health care. | The Memorandum of Understanding with the Italian Space Agency will see us explore cooperative projects in areas including space policy, law and regulation, space weather, space education and health care. |
| The letter of intent with Germany’s Space Agency, the German Aerospace Centre, will see us look at cooperative projects such as biomedical research under space conditions, and quantum technologies. | The letter of intent with Germany’s Space Agency, the German Aerospace Centre, will see us look at cooperative projects such as biomedical research under space conditions, and quantum technologies. |
| The arrangement with the New Zealand Space Agency is designed to encourage a trans-Tasman space innovation ecosystem. The agreement will facilitate collaboration in areas which could include launch and orbital/suborbital missions, expanding ground segment networks and remote asset management. | The arrangement with the New Zealand Space Agency is designed to encourage a trans-Tasman space innovation ecosystem. The agreement will facilitate collaboration in areas which could include launch and orbital/suborbital missions, expanding ground segment networks and remote asset management. |
| The Australian Space Agency also signed a Statement of Strategic Intent and Cooperation with U.S. based company, Maxar Technologies which is a core research contributor to the SmartSat Cooperative Research Centre. | The Australian Space Agency also signed a Statement of Strategic Intent and Cooperation with U.S. based company, Maxar Technologies which is a core research contributor to the SmartSat Cooperative Research Centre. |
| And as for the hospitalisation argument (with estimates showing just 10% of the 132 people brought to Australia for treatment under medevac were hospitalised) it probably won’t shock anyone who has needed a medical assessment, or treatment, to learn it doesn’t always require hospitalisation. | And as for the hospitalisation argument (with estimates showing just 10% of the 132 people brought to Australia for treatment under medevac were hospitalised) it probably won’t shock anyone who has needed a medical assessment, or treatment, to learn it doesn’t always require hospitalisation. |
| Particularly when it comes to mental health. | Particularly when it comes to mental health. |
| We are back to the “can’t stop people entering Australia under medevac” line (which is not true – the minister has 72 hours to stop someone from entering on national security and character grounds and Peter Dutton has used this power). | We are back to the “can’t stop people entering Australia under medevac” line (which is not true – the minister has 72 hours to stop someone from entering on national security and character grounds and Peter Dutton has used this power). |
| Tanya Plibersek had this to say to the ABC about it this morning: | Tanya Plibersek had this to say to the ABC about it this morning: |
| As the minister he has the ability to prevent people coming here on character grounds. So I don’t know why he has ignored his obligation as a minister to evaluate whether people have, you know, whether they have got good character. | As the minister he has the ability to prevent people coming here on character grounds. So I don’t know why he has ignored his obligation as a minister to evaluate whether people have, you know, whether they have got good character. |
| He can stop them coming here if he wants to. And it’s, of course, the case that when people are here receiving medical treatment, if they’re not actually receiving the medical treatment at that moment, they are in immigration detention. | He can stop them coming here if he wants to. And it’s, of course, the case that when people are here receiving medical treatment, if they’re not actually receiving the medical treatment at that moment, they are in immigration detention. |
| So both respects I think the minister is seeking to frighten people giving them the idea that there are dangerous people walking around in the community when he, as the minister, has the power to prevent that happening. | So both respects I think the minister is seeking to frighten people giving them the idea that there are dangerous people walking around in the community when he, as the minister, has the power to prevent that happening. |