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Boris Johnson to Seek Election on Dec. 12 in Push to Break Brexit Deadlock Boris Johnson Calls for December Election in Push to Break Brexit Deadlock
(about 2 hours later)
By Stephen Castle LONDON — Prime Minister Boris Johnson, stymied by Parliament on his plan to leave the European Union by the end of the month, challenged lawmakers on Thursday to approve a general election in December, hoping to win a popular mandate to carry out his vision of a swift Brexit.
LONDON — Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced on Thursday that he would ask lawmakers to agree to a general election on Dec. 12, in his latest effort to break the deadlock in Britain’s three-year battle over Brexit. But the opposition Labour Party reacted coolly to Mr. Johnson’s proposal, which he will bring before Parliament on Monday, viewing it as an act of political gamesmanship rather than a serious effort to find a path out of the morass that has enveloped Britain since it voted in 2016 to leave the European Union.
The move portended more political convulsions in Britain over extricating itself from the European Union. It followed the decision of Parliament to block Mr. Johnson’s accelerated timetable to leave by Oct. 31, despite agreeing in principle to his latest Brexit plan. Throwing the question of Brexit back to the voters has been seen as a way to break out of a cycle of political paralysis. But the maneuvering in the wake of Mr. Johnson’s announcement showed that even this bid could fall prey to the same political forces that have subverted all previous efforts.
Mr. Johnson, the leader of the Conservative Party, has already been forced by Parliament to request an extension to the Brexit deadline until Jan. 31. A decision on that is expected from the European Union soon, perhaps on Friday. Mr. Johnson, who has already been forced to break his word by requesting an extension of the Brexit deadline until Jan. 31, presented the opposition with a quid pro quo: he would give members more time to deliberate over his deal with the European Union if they agreed to back an election on Dec. 12.
But in a pre-emptive strike, Mr. Johnson said in a BBC interview that, providing the extension is granted, he plans on Monday to ask for the December election, also giving Parliament more time to ratify his Brexit proposal first. “It’s time, frankly, that the opposition summoned up the nerve to submit themselves to the judgment of our collective boss, which is the people of the U.K,” Mr. Johnson said in an interview with the BBC. It would be “absolutely morally incredible” for the Labour Party to refuse, he added.
If lawmakers “genuinely want more time to study this excellent deal, they can have it — but they have to agree to a general election on Dec. 12,” Mr. Johnson told the BBC. The prime minister cannot simply call an election, however. Under a 2011 law, he would need the support of two-thirds of the members of Parliament, something that would be impossible without the votes of Labour lawmakers. They already rebuffed his attempt to call an election in October.
However, Mr. Johnson cannot simply call an election. Under a 2011 law, he would need the support of two-thirds of Parliament, something that would be impossible without support from the opposition Labour Party. Since taking office in July, Mr. Johnson, leader of the Conservative Party, has viewed an election as a tempting remedy for the deadlock over Brexit. But going to the voters is a risky proposition for both parties — one that had divided Mr. Johnson’s advisers, as well as the Labour rank-and-file, because it could lead to unforeseen outcomes.
Mr. Johnson had already sought — and been denied — an election in October and, since becoming prime minister in July, has appeared to be in campaigning mode, preparing for an election that most analysts see as inevitable. “It’s a stab in the dark,” said Peter Kellner, a political analyst and former president of YouGov, a polling organization. “None of them can be absolutely sure what the consequences would be.”
Mr. Johnson’s statement was his first public admission that Britain will not leave the European Union by his self-imposed deadline of Oct. 31, “do or die.” But he now faces another tight timetable to accomplish his Brexit aims: squeezing in a general election before the Christmas vacation, securing a majority in Parliament and then ratifying his withdrawal deal before the end of January. Polls show the Conservative Party with a comfortable lead over Labour, which helps explain Mr. Johnson’s enthusiasm for a vote. Having struck a Brexit deal with the European Union, and even won a majority for it in a preliminary vote in Parliament, he would have a clear message to take to voters.
It takes at least five weeks to organize an election after one is called. And there are practical problems in trying to hold one during the Christmas season, because voters usually cast their ballots in schools, churches or village halls and these venues are generally booked for Christmas festivities or school plays. Essentially, the election needs to be approved next week. “The government would really like an election early-ish,” said Tony Travers, a professor of politics at the London School of Economics. “Even if the U.K. doesn’t leave the E.U., they can position themselves as the only party that wants to put an end to Brexit.”
And Mr. Johnson’s election demand creates a dilemma for the opposition Labour Party. Still, in recent years, surveys have proved unreliable. During the 2017 general election, polls shifted sharply during the campaign, from a commanding lead for Mr. Johnson’s predecessor, Theresa May, to an outcome that left her with a reduced majority. It is increasingly hard to predict how votes will translate into seats in Britain’s winner-takes-all electoral system.
Officially its leader, Jeremy Corbyn, wants an election as soon as a “no deal” Brexit is off the table, something that could happen soon if an extension is provided by the European Union, as expected. Labour’s leader, Jeremy Corbyn, has said he wants a general election but only when the risk of Britain leaving the European Union without an agreement has been taken off the table.
So it would be easy for the Conservatives to portray a Labour decision to block a general election as an act of cowardice from a party that knows it would lose. That could happen as soon as Friday, if the European Union agrees to the request made by Mr. Johnson, under duress last week, to extend the Brexit deadline to Jan. 31. But for now Labour is not saying whether it will agree to Mr. Johnson’s push for a Dec 12. election.
But with Labour at just around 25 percent in many opinion polls, trailing well behind the Conservatives, as many as half the party’s lawmakers are thought to oppose a winter election. The revival of the anti-Brexit Liberal Democrats and, at the other end of the spectrum, the rise of Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party, could decide the election by taking votes from the two biggest parties in key election battlegrounds.
That means that Mr. Corbyn has to decide first whether he wants an election before Christmas. Agreeing to that would mean that the voting takes place before Brexit has been decided, unless lawmakers agree to Mr. Johnson’s proposals without changing them substantially. The timing of a vote — whether before or after Britain leaves the European Union — would affect how the parties campaign and how voters react to their messages. Mr. Johnson also faces a daunting timetable.
If Mr. Corbyn wants to go ahead with an election, he then has to calculate whether he can deliver his own lawmakers and avoid the embarrassment of facing a large-scale rebellion. As elections take five weeks, campaigning needs to start almost immediately if it is to avoid running into the Christmas holiday season. Holding an election close to Christmas, something Britain has not done in decades, poses a whole set of challenges: the days are short, the weather is often bad and many voting venues, like schools and churches, are booked for holiday events.
Mr. Johnson’s maneuver today is in keeping with the bluster and bravado with which he has approached Parliament during his Brexit drive, even though he lacks a parliamentary majority and therefore has little or no control over the House of Commons. Some Conservatives argue that Mr. Johnson would be better off winning approval of his deal and then going to the public. But that would mean putting the deal before Parliament, where it could be amended in ways that Mr. Johnson or the European Union might find unacceptable, bringing things back to square one.
He has sought in every instance to maintain the initiative, keeping on the front foot even after losing a series of critical votes — in contrast to his predecessor, Theresa May, who suffered reverses but kept doggedly to the same path. Perhaps with an eye to that possibility, other Conservatives, including his influential adviser, Dominic Cummings, have pressed Mr. Johnson to frame the election in starkly populist terms: as a battle of the people versus Parliament.
“If Brexit goes through, they can’t say that,” Mr. Travers said. “Parliament becomes less easy to attack.”
If the Conservatives are split over tactics, the divisions within the Labour Party run much deeper.
Officially, Mr. Corbyn wants an election, albeit with caveats, but with Labour at roughly 25 percent in opinion polls, nearly 10 points behind the Conservatives, as many as half the party’s lawmakers are believed to oppose an early election.
That reflects Labour’s broader divisions over Brexit itself. Some ardent “leavers” voted in favor of Mr. Johnson’s Brexit deal, while others are either opposed to Brexit or determined to foil Mr. Johnson by tying him up in Parliament.
“Labour has no clear proposition on Brexit going into the election,” said Mujtaba Rahman, an expert on Brexit at Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy. “That’s such a clear difference between the parties.”
Labour knows that its message on Brexit is complicated: the party wants to negotiate a new exit agreement and put it to a referendum, with remaining in the European Union as the other option. That could be hard to explain to voters by comparison with Mr. Johnson’s simplistic but effective slogan of “get Brexit done.”
Many Labour lawmakers think that only after Britain’s exit from the European Union will the party be able to campaign on its stronger issues of opposing economic austerity and rebuilding public services.
Labour lawmakers voiced fears over facing the voters at this time of year, saying it makes little sense in view of the polls and because of the weather, which would depress turnout, to Labour’s detriment.
Mr. Kellner, however, said the downside to waiting is greater than the upside because it could anger many of those who voted for Mr. Corbyn in 2017, having seen him as the best chance of stopping Brexit.
That creates a difficult situation for Mr. Corbyn, even if he decides to support an election.
“If he wants a general election the question is, ‘Can he get enough of his members of Parliament to back him?’” Mr. Kellner said. “If it looks as if he can’t, then he will risk the embarrassment of not agreeing to one in order not to suffer the far greater embarrassment of not being able to deliver one.”