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German consumer morale slides; Brexit jitters weigh on markets - business live German consumer morale slides; Brexit jitters weigh on markets - business live
(about 1 hour later)
Blunder of the day goes to the Office For National Statistics, for overstating public borrowing by up to £1.5bn this year.
Oops! Stats body admits whopping public finance error of up to £1.5bn https://t.co/IIRGD0eXhW pic.twitter.com/QIbuMMQqFi
Sterling is ending the weak on a low point - it’s now down almost half a cent today, just above $1.28.Sterling is ending the weak on a low point - it’s now down almost half a cent today, just above $1.28.
Sterling extending recent falls on Brexit uncertainty and possible election next month. Cable currently $1.2810.Sterling extending recent falls on Brexit uncertainty and possible election next month. Cable currently $1.2810.
Tom Rosser, investment research analyst at The Share Centre, says political uncertainty is hurting:Tom Rosser, investment research analyst at The Share Centre, says political uncertainty is hurting:
Yesterday, Boris laid down the gauntlet in challenging MPs to give him a general election on 12 December. For investors this creates a difficult environment.Yesterday, Boris laid down the gauntlet in challenging MPs to give him a general election on 12 December. For investors this creates a difficult environment.
Sterling reached levels not seen since May at the start of the week, but with a snap election looking likely and with uncertainty persisting, it has since fallen back. The only thing that is certain is heightened volatility for the currency.Sterling reached levels not seen since May at the start of the week, but with a snap election looking likely and with uncertainty persisting, it has since fallen back. The only thing that is certain is heightened volatility for the currency.
The New York stock market has made a very subdued start to trading.The New York stock market has made a very subdued start to trading.
The Dow has risen just 0.07%, gaining 20 points to 26,826, while the broader S&P 500 has dipped by 0.08%.The Dow has risen just 0.07%, gaining 20 points to 26,826, while the broader S&P 500 has dipped by 0.08%.
There are some significant moves, though. Amazon has fallen 3.6% after missing Wall Street profit forecasts following an investment splurge.There are some significant moves, though. Amazon has fallen 3.6% after missing Wall Street profit forecasts following an investment splurge.
I reckon that’s knocked around $3.6bn off Jeff Bezos’s stake in the company he founded -- leaving him roughly neck-and-neck with Bill Gates as the world’s richest person.I reckon that’s knocked around $3.6bn off Jeff Bezos’s stake in the company he founded -- leaving him roughly neck-and-neck with Bill Gates as the world’s richest person.
Gold, a traditional safe-haven in troubled times, has jumped 1% this morning to $1,517 per ounce - it’s highest level sine late September.Gold, a traditional safe-haven in troubled times, has jumped 1% this morning to $1,517 per ounce - it’s highest level sine late September.
wooo gold keeps on going pic.twitter.com/wFuOXp3DWbwooo gold keeps on going pic.twitter.com/wFuOXp3DWb
Tire maker Goodyear has missed expectations, though, with sales down 3% in the third quarter.Tire maker Goodyear has missed expectations, though, with sales down 3% in the third quarter.
Earnings also came in below forecasts, prompting CEO Richard Kramer to blame the weak European economy:Earnings also came in below forecasts, prompting CEO Richard Kramer to blame the weak European economy:
“Industry conditions were softer than we anticipated in Europe and we continued to see an adverse impact from lack of alignment in our distribution channels.“Industry conditions were softer than we anticipated in Europe and we continued to see an adverse impact from lack of alignment in our distribution channels.
In response, we expect to accelerate our plans to rationalize distribution in the region.In response, we expect to accelerate our plans to rationalize distribution in the region.
Jaguar Land Rover has some cheering news -- it’s returned to profit.Jaguar Land Rover has some cheering news -- it’s returned to profit.
The UK car maker says sales picked up in China, while strong demand for the Range Rover Evoque SUV vehicle also helped.The UK car maker says sales picked up in China, while strong demand for the Range Rover Evoque SUV vehicle also helped.
This delivered a £156m pre-tax profit in the last quarter, up from a £395m loss in April-June.This delivered a £156m pre-tax profit in the last quarter, up from a £395m loss in April-June.
Ralf Speth, boss of the Midlands car manufacturer, says the JLR turnaround plan is firmly on track. That must be a relief to workers at its car plants in Castle Bromwich and Solihull, although Brexit uncertainty still looms over the industry.Ralf Speth, boss of the Midlands car manufacturer, says the JLR turnaround plan is firmly on track. That must be a relief to workers at its car plants in Castle Bromwich and Solihull, although Brexit uncertainty still looms over the industry.
Marketwatch is reporting that the possibility of a Labour government is also weighing on the City.Marketwatch is reporting that the possibility of a Labour government is also weighing on the City.
They say:They say:
Lucy Macdonald, chief investment officer for global equities at Allianz Global Investors, said in addition to uncertainty surrounding the Brexit outcome, the policy proposals of the opposition Labour Party under leader Jeremy Corbyn have also affected sentiment.Lucy Macdonald, chief investment officer for global equities at Allianz Global Investors, said in addition to uncertainty surrounding the Brexit outcome, the policy proposals of the opposition Labour Party under leader Jeremy Corbyn have also affected sentiment.
“Another reason why global investors have been nervous about the U.K. has been the threat of an extreme left-wing government. Although that looks a lower risk because of where the polls are, it is still a risk,” said Macdonald.“Another reason why global investors have been nervous about the U.K. has been the threat of an extreme left-wing government. Although that looks a lower risk because of where the polls are, it is still a risk,” said Macdonald.
More here: U.K. assets are too hot to handle right now, top investors sayMore here: U.K. assets are too hot to handle right now, top investors say
That may explain why utilities -- a nationalisation target for Labour - are the worst-performing sector on the FTSE 100 this morning.That may explain why utilities -- a nationalisation target for Labour - are the worst-performing sector on the FTSE 100 this morning.
But, Labour are currently lagging in the polls, and there’s no guarantee of an election soon anyway (despite Boris Johnson’s goading of Jeremy Corbyn to ‘man up’ today...).But, Labour are currently lagging in the polls, and there’s no guarantee of an election soon anyway (despite Boris Johnson’s goading of Jeremy Corbyn to ‘man up’ today...).
Billionaire Watch: Jeff Bezos could lose his crown as the world’s richest man today.Billionaire Watch: Jeff Bezos could lose his crown as the world’s richest man today.
Amazon’s stock price is on track to fall around 6% when the New York stock market opens (2.30pm BST / 9.30am EST).Amazon’s stock price is on track to fall around 6% when the New York stock market opens (2.30pm BST / 9.30am EST).
That would knock roughly $6bn off Bezos’s personal wealth, I estimate. And that’s just enough to send him below Bill Gates on the Bloomberg Billionaire’s index (yesterday, Bezos was worth $111bn, followed by Gates at $107bn).That would knock roughly $6bn off Bezos’s personal wealth, I estimate. And that’s just enough to send him below Bill Gates on the Bloomberg Billionaire’s index (yesterday, Bezos was worth $111bn, followed by Gates at $107bn).
Investors aren’t impressed by Amazon’s sharp fall in profits in the last quarter, or its decision to lower its earnings forecasts (details here).Investors aren’t impressed by Amazon’s sharp fall in profits in the last quarter, or its decision to lower its earnings forecasts (details here).
Bezos explained last night that Amazon is investing more in Prime, its next-day delivery service. But some shareholders would rather it focused on profits.Bezos explained last night that Amazon is investing more in Prime, its next-day delivery service. But some shareholders would rather it focused on profits.
Brent Thill, an analyst at Jefferies, explained (via the FT):Brent Thill, an analyst at Jefferies, explained (via the FT):
“The key takeaway is they are shifting from harvest mode to investment mode and it’s coming at the cost of the bottom line.“The key takeaway is they are shifting from harvest mode to investment mode and it’s coming at the cost of the bottom line.
That’s a different tone. Suddenly we are back to the old Amazon.”That’s a different tone. Suddenly we are back to the old Amazon.”
Several UK-focused companies are among the fallers on the FTSE 100 today.Several UK-focused companies are among the fallers on the FTSE 100 today.
Property giant British Land, supermarket chain Sainsbury, telecoms group BT and holiday provider TUI have all dropped, reflecting Brexit worries.Property giant British Land, supermarket chain Sainsbury, telecoms group BT and holiday provider TUI have all dropped, reflecting Brexit worries.
Fiona Cincotta of City Index says:Fiona Cincotta of City Index says:
In what is beginning to look more like a high stakes poker game then legitimate politics the Prime Minister said he would ask MPs to agree on Monday to a general election before Christmas.In what is beginning to look more like a high stakes poker game then legitimate politics the Prime Minister said he would ask MPs to agree on Monday to a general election before Christmas.
If they disagree he indicated that he would freeze his Brexit legislation making it impossible for Parliament to make any progress in debating the current proposal.If they disagree he indicated that he would freeze his Brexit legislation making it impossible for Parliament to make any progress in debating the current proposal.
The FTSE 100 is currently down 33 point, or 0.5%, as traders scramble for a lunchtime sandwich.The FTSE 100 is currently down 33 point, or 0.5%, as traders scramble for a lunchtime sandwich.
The mid-cap FTSE 250 index, of medium-sized listed companies, has dropped by 0.7%- to its lowest level since last Wednesday.The mid-cap FTSE 250 index, of medium-sized listed companies, has dropped by 0.7%- to its lowest level since last Wednesday.
Cincotta says Amazon’s weak results have also pushed shares down:Cincotta says Amazon’s weak results have also pushed shares down:
A weaker close on Wall Street also contributed to the FTSE’s decline particularly after Amazon reported the first drop in quarterly profits since 2017 and warned that there would be more declines during its busiest season in the year.A weaker close on Wall Street also contributed to the FTSE’s decline particularly after Amazon reported the first drop in quarterly profits since 2017 and warned that there would be more declines during its busiest season in the year.
On Brexit, the EU has just announced that leaders have agreed “in principle” to granting the UK a Brexit extension.On Brexit, the EU has just announced that leaders have agreed “in principle” to granting the UK a Brexit extension.
But they haven’t finalised the details (the length, or the terms), and will make a final decision next week.But they haven’t finalised the details (the length, or the terms), and will make a final decision next week.
There will be definitely not be a special Brextension summit. That's one thing all EU27 ambassadors agreed on this morning. But they still don't agree how long extension should be for.Decision postponed to Monday or Tuesday.There will be definitely not be a special Brextension summit. That's one thing all EU27 ambassadors agreed on this morning. But they still don't agree how long extension should be for.Decision postponed to Monday or Tuesday.
They appear to be waiting until MPs have decided whether a general election should be held in December, putting the ball back into Westminster’s court.They appear to be waiting until MPs have decided whether a general election should be held in December, putting the ball back into Westminster’s court.
Johnson thought the extension would come in by Monday and he would have a vote on an election, but now the EU is saying it will wait for the outcome of the vote to decide on the extension. Perfect.Johnson thought the extension would come in by Monday and he would have a vote on an election, but now the EU is saying it will wait for the outcome of the vote to decide on the extension. Perfect.
Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at ActivTrades, says Brexit ‘absurdity’ and ‘surrealism’ is pushing the pound towards a one-week low.Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at ActivTrades, says Brexit ‘absurdity’ and ‘surrealism’ is pushing the pound towards a one-week low.
The latest political twist keeping sterling under pressure has a touch of surrealism about it: Boris Johnson is asking for an early election, for which he’ll need the support of Labour MPs; Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, said he will support an early election, but only if the EU has granted a Brexit extension and no deal is off the table.The latest political twist keeping sterling under pressure has a touch of surrealism about it: Boris Johnson is asking for an early election, for which he’ll need the support of Labour MPs; Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, said he will support an early election, but only if the EU has granted a Brexit extension and no deal is off the table.
However, the EU will only grant a new extension if the British side has a clearly defined plan. There is an absurdity about the situation and the markets are reacting by once again walking away from the pound.However, the EU will only grant a new extension if the British side has a clearly defined plan. There is an absurdity about the situation and the markets are reacting by once again walking away from the pound.
Our latest Brexit Dashboard is out, and shows that the prolonged economic uncertainty is hurting the jobs market.Our latest Brexit Dashboard is out, and shows that the prolonged economic uncertainty is hurting the jobs market.
My colleague Richard Partington explains:My colleague Richard Partington explains:
Brexit uncertainty has begun driving up job losses across Britain as political turmoil holds back the economy, according to a Guardian analysis of economic news over the past month.Brexit uncertainty has begun driving up job losses across Britain as political turmoil holds back the economy, according to a Guardian analysis of economic news over the past month.
In a sign of the mounting stress on the UK, the number of people in work dropped by the largest margin in four years in August as companies put their hiring plans on hold, with firms losing contracts and facing delays because of the uncertainty over Britain’s future. , some bright patches remain, including official figures suggesting that a summer recession has been avoided.In a sign of the mounting stress on the UK, the number of people in work dropped by the largest margin in four years in August as companies put their hiring plans on hold, with firms losing contracts and facing delays because of the uncertainty over Britain’s future. , some bright patches remain, including official figures suggesting that a summer recession has been avoided.
Here’s the key data:Here’s the key data:
How has Brexit vote affected the UK economy? October verdictHow has Brexit vote affected the UK economy? October verdict
Economist Danny Blanchflower says the government must reveal the economic impact of Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal:Economist Danny Blanchflower says the government must reveal the economic impact of Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal:
It is disgraceful that Sajid Javid has refused to publish economic analysis of the deal parliament has been offered by the government. This is either utter incompetence or they are trying to hide bad news, or both.It is disgraceful that Sajid Javid has refused to publish economic analysis of the deal parliament has been offered by the government. This is either utter incompetence or they are trying to hide bad news, or both.
Fellow economist Andrew Sentance is also concerned about Brexit’s impact on the economy:Fellow economist Andrew Sentance is also concerned about Brexit’s impact on the economy:
The UK economy is likely to continue to grow at a modest pace, driven by consumer spending and the services sector. But manufacturing industries will continue to struggle – not least because it is the part of the economy most exposed to the negative aspects of Brexit.The UK economy is likely to continue to grow at a modest pace, driven by consumer spending and the services sector. But manufacturing industries will continue to struggle – not least because it is the part of the economy most exposed to the negative aspects of Brexit.
Though economic growth is continuing, the UK economy is becoming more unbalanced, not less so. That is one of the many unfortunate consequences of Brexit.Though economic growth is continuing, the UK economy is becoming more unbalanced, not less so. That is one of the many unfortunate consequences of Brexit.
More here:More here:
Has the UK escaped a recession? Experts debate the dataHas the UK escaped a recession? Experts debate the data
Here’s my colleague Jasper Jolly on the probe into the Boeing 737 MAX:Here’s my colleague Jasper Jolly on the probe into the Boeing 737 MAX:
The final report by Indonesian investigators into the crash of a Boeing 737 Max plane flown by Indonesia’s Lion Air that left 189 people dead has found that problems with Boeing’s design, the airline’s maintenance of the jet and pilot errors contributed to the disaster.The final report by Indonesian investigators into the crash of a Boeing 737 Max plane flown by Indonesia’s Lion Air that left 189 people dead has found that problems with Boeing’s design, the airline’s maintenance of the jet and pilot errors contributed to the disaster.
The report into the October 2018 crash criticised the US planemaker’s new anti-stall system, MCAS, that automatically pushed the plane’s nose down, leaving pilots fighting for control.The report into the October 2018 crash criticised the US planemaker’s new anti-stall system, MCAS, that automatically pushed the plane’s nose down, leaving pilots fighting for control.
The 737 Max’s MCAS system is also at the centre of separate investigations into an Ethiopian Airlines crash in March that killed 159 people. Boeing’s 737 Max planes were grounded worldwide in the wake of the crashes.The 737 Max’s MCAS system is also at the centre of separate investigations into an Ethiopian Airlines crash in March that killed 159 people. Boeing’s 737 Max planes were grounded worldwide in the wake of the crashes.
More here:More here:
Lion Air crash report 'criticises design, maintenance and pilot error'Lion Air crash report 'criticises design, maintenance and pilot error'
Germany’s government isn’t bowing to pressure to launch a stimulus programme, according to these newsflashes:Germany’s government isn’t bowing to pressure to launch a stimulus programme, according to these newsflashes:
German Gvt Spokesman : Sees No Requirement For Fiscal Stimulus Package And We Are Staying With Our Policy Of Our Balanced-Budget Policy#DAX #BUND #EURGerman Gvt Spokesman : Sees No Requirement For Fiscal Stimulus Package And We Are Staying With Our Policy Of Our Balanced-Budget Policy#DAX #BUND #EUR
German government spokesperson says there is no need for fiscal stimulus package $EURGerman government spokesperson says there is no need for fiscal stimulus package $EUR
That’s despite Mario Draghi using his final press conference as ECB president to urge governments with fiscal space to boost their spending.That’s despite Mario Draghi using his final press conference as ECB president to urge governments with fiscal space to boost their spending.