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Brexit: EU has agreed Brexit 'flextension' until 31 January 2020, Tusk announces – live news Brexit: Parliament to blame, says No 10, as EU extension offer confirms PM to break October promise – live news
(about 3 hours later)
This is from the politics professor Philip Cowley on the issue of whether or not Boris Johnson gets the blame for the Brexit extension. (See 10.55am.) The shadow cabinet seems to have wrapped up.
I keep seeing this sort of gag (and yes, OK, ho ho ho), but if, say, MF comes out and says that he doesn't blame Boris and that it is instead all the fault of those Remainer swine, it'll be the sort of elite cue that we know is so important in determining how voters respond. https://t.co/7PHjZhbiTk This is from my colleague Rowena Mason.
From Sadiq Khan, the Labour mayor of London Labour still planning to abstain on the PM's motion on general election this afternoon. Time to see if No 10 serious about the Lib Dem plan for an election without having another push at the WAB - or whether it was a bluff to put pressure on Labour
Good news. Now the immediate risk of a catastrophic no-deal has been removed - it’s time to give the British public the final say on Brexit. #FinalSay https://t.co/YODUXOUhO8 This is from the Daily Mirror’s Pippa Crerar.
The prime minister and home secretary joined Essex emergency services this morning to pay their respects to the 39 people found dead in a refrigerated lorry trailer last week, the Press Association reports.Alongside senior local dignitaries, Boris Johnson and Priti Patel signed a book of condolence and will lay wreaths in Mulberry garden outside the Thurrock civic offices in remembrance. NEW: I'm told that Labour's shadow cabinet:- agreed to ABSTAIN on election vote under FTPA tonight - recognise a single line bill is likely to PASS anyway with Tory/ SNP/ LD support- believe Labour MPs "aren't in a good place" on GE and will refuse to vote for it.
From my colleague Peter Walker, who has been at the Number 10 lobby briefing. And this is from the Sun’s Tom Newton Dunn.
No official No 10 response yet to EU’s offer of 31 Jan Brexit extension, we are told. Boris Johnson is in Essex in wake of case of 39 people found dead in a lorry, and has not studied the letter yet, his spokesman says. No chance of Labour changing its vote today, as its MPs are all on a 1 line whip and wouldn't get to London in time. But I hear Shadow Cabinet is now giving serious thought to backing a general election tomorrow. Source: "We're pretty snookered".
Guy Verhofstadt, the European parliament’s lead Brexit spokesman, is also urging the UK not to waste this extension. Here are two questions from readers about the Lib Dem/SNP proposal for a general election on Monday 9 December, instead of Thursday 12 December (which is what the government is proposing).
Relieved that finally no one died in a ditch. Whether the UK's democratic choice is revoke or an orderly withdraw, confirmed or not in a second referendum, the uncertainty of Brexit has gone on for far too long. This extra time must deliver a way forward. What are the advantages of having the election on Monday 9 December, not Thursday 12 December?
This morning John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, claimed that the Lib Dem decision to back an early election (see 8.39am) showed that they were aligning with the Tories and “selling out the People’s Vote campaign”. @AndrewSparrow, can you please elaborate on the pros/cons of a #GE date of 9th vs 12th of December? #Brexit #BrexitExtension
Looks like the Lib Dem and Tory pact of 2010 is being re-established. They are back together, selling out the People’s Vote campaign and the cross party campaign to prevent a no deal. The Lib Dems will stop at nothing to get their ministerial cars back. The Lib Dems have not officially given an explanation for this, but in private party sources have said one advantage of having the election on the Monday rather than the Thursday is that students are more likely to be at university on the Monday. This is from the academic Ivor Gaber.
That prompted this response from Jo Swinson, the Lib Dem leader. The difference is that most university terms end on 13th Dec. but students don’t wait til very end of the week before decamping. Most are registered at term-time address. Hence Lib Dem’s think they’ll get more students voting for them on the 9th rather than the 12th. Clear?
In the last 10 days I’ve addressed a #PeoplesVote March and tabled an Amendment to the Queen‘s Speech that would have given us a People’s Vote. Your leader did neither. Don’t lecture me about fighting for a People’s Vote. https://t.co/tT1V4ceE7o In a very useful analysis for the Higher Education Policy Institute website, Nick Hillman, its director, points out that there are seats where the student vote has clearly helped the Lib Dems. But he also concludes:
The Democratic Unionist party (DUP) has received a sobering warning that its deputy leader, Nigel Dodds, may lose his seat to Sinn Féin in the next election. It is hard to find a single general election when the student vote determined who got the keys to Number 10. Even if the contested claim that student support for Jeremy Corbyn made a big difference at the 2017 election is true, Labour still lost (as Kay Burley famously reminded Richard Burgon MP the other day).
Steve Aiken, the incoming leader of the Ulster Unionist party (UUP), has ruled out a tactical voting pact with the DUP, leaving Dodds vulnerable in his north Belfast constituency. There are other advantages to the Liberal Democrats from 9 December, over 12 December. It would allow more time for a new government to agree a Brexit deal, or negotiate another extension, ahead of the 31 January deadline. And it would allow even less time for Boris Johnson to pass his Brexit deal, which is something the Lib Dems are opposing ahead of an early election.
The prospect will complicate the DUP’s calculations over whether to back efforts in Westminster to trigger a December election. Wouldn’t it be easier to repeal the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, instead of just amending it as the Lib Dems and the SNP propose?
The UUP and DUP have cooperated in recent elections to avoid splitting the unionist vote in marginal constituencies, enabling Dodds to fend off Sinn Féin and lead the DUP’s 10 MPs at Westminster. @AndrewSparrow Andrew, what is to prevent the government from simply repealing the FTPA 2011, and then having the freedom to call an election when they wish?I must be missing something - but I thought that all that was necessary to repeal an existing act is a simple majority.
Over the weekend Aiken, a former submarine commander who is due to take charge of the UUP next month, announced it would contest every seat and not make a pact with a party that had bungled Brexit and “besmirched unionism with its corruption and sleaze”, a reference to the cash-for-ash scandal. The Lib Dems and the SNP are proposing legislation that would effectively allow a one-off exemption from the FTPA, to allow an early election to take place this year. Theresa May prepared a similar bill in 2017, although in the end she did not need it because (to her surprise) Labour agreed to vote for an early election (meaning she had the two-thirds majority needed under the FTPA for an election poll to go ahead).
And more from Jennifer. Another option would be to repeal the FTPA wholesale. But this would effectively put the power to call an election back entirely in the hands of the prime minister, at a time when the trend has been to curtail these prerogative powers (as in the supreme court ruling on article 50), not extend them. In the current circumstances, it is very hard to see how this would get through parliament.
EU diplomat on Brexit extension says the “hope is that UK will use its extra time wisely”.The milder version of “do not waste this time”. The Commons standards committee has just published a report on its very long-running inquiry into the Labour MP Keith Vaz. It is recommending that he be suspended as an MP for six months for expressing willingness to buy a class A drug.
This is a reference to what Donald Tusk, the president of the European council, said in April, when the UK’s second and longer Brexit extension was agreed. “Please do not waste this time,” he said. The Conservative party then embarked on a leadership contest, and it was six months before the new PM presented a revised deal to parliament. Tusk may feel his advice was not taken very seriously. Here is an extract from the report (pdf).
From my colleague Jennifer Rankin We have found that Mr Vaz acted in breach of paragraph 16 of the 2015 House of Commons code of conduct. By expressing willingness to purchase a class A drug, cocaine, for others to use, thereby showing disregard for the law, and by failing to cooperate fully with the inquiry process, thereby showing disrespect for the house’s standards system, he has caused significant damage to the reputation and integrity of the House of Commons as a whole.
So after Friday’s fuss, EU ambassadors took only 15/20 minutes to rubber stamp the Brexit “flextension”. LibDem-SNP election decision described as a “game changer” for Emmanuel Macron by one EU diplomat. This is a very serious breach of the code. We recommend that the house should suspend Mr Vaz from its service for six months.
This is from David Sassoli, president of the European parliament. We note that this suspension, if agreed by the House, will trigger the provisions of the Recall of MPs Act 2015 and require a recall petition to be opened in Mr Vaz’s constituency.
Positive EU27 leaders have agreed a flexible #Brexit extension until 31 January 2020. This gives time for the UK to make clear what it wants. In the meantime, the @Europarl_EN will continue to scrutinise the withdrawal agreement. We further recommend that if Mr Vaz were to cease to be a member of the house for whatever reason, he should not be eligible to be granted a former member’s pass.
From ITV’s Robert Peston This recommendation has to approved by the Commons as a whole, but that is almost automatic in the case of reports from this committee.
People’s Vote has gone full People’s Front of Judea. McGrory and Baldwin are in the PV office in Millbank. Rudd and Heneghan are outside refusing to enter while M and B on premises, and are threatening legal action for trespass. Oh dear. No MP has ever been suspended for anything like this long since the second world war, as this report (pdf) confirms, although one Labour MP was expelled from the Commons in 1947, and a Conservative in 1954.
The announcement that the EU would agree to delay Brexit until 31 January did not come as a surprise to anyone this morning. But it is still a milestone in the Brexit process, and arguably one of the most important moments in Boris Johnson’s premiership. Here are three reasons why. From the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg
1 - Boris Johnson has now failed to achieve what he set out as the most important goal of his premiership. Even at the end of last week he was still claiming that Brexit could happen by 31 October, but that dream is now dead. And it is hard to overstate how important this was to the Johnson project. During the Tory leadership campaign the most important issue that separated Johnson from Jeremy Hunt, his challenger, was that Johnson said Brexit would have to happen by 31 October, whereas Hunt said it was more realistic to accept that the deadline might slip. After becoming prime minister Johnson repeatedly said unequivocally Brexit would happen by 31 October, particularly on social media. He said he would rather be “dead in a ditch” than extend Brexit. And then, of course, there were the Tory countdown clocks, one of which was delivered to No 10. Presumably this morning they have been stalled. Shadow Cabinet sat down to discuss position at 12 - members aware it's much harder for them to resist call for election with the other two main opposition parties out backing one
Party Chairman @JamesCleverly with the ⏰✍ We will deliver Brexit by October 31st. Back @BorisJohnson's pledge here: https://t.co/ZkcKvLONpm pic.twitter.com/aFF4Kfcav3 President Macron’s office said France had worked all weekend to insist on very clear conditions written “in black and white” to allow the UK’s Brexit extension. An Élysée official said:
But Johnson’s monumental failure in this regard begs a much bigger question ... All weekend, France took the initiative with Germany, Ireland, Donald Tusk’s team and a few other countries, to fix the terms of the extension very precisely: that the withdrawal agreement isn’t renegotiable, that the UK would follow a code of conduct and allow the EU’s 27 members to meet to discuss other issues for their future [such as the budget], and that the UK must legally appoint a commissioner if the European commission sits before the UK leaves.
2 - Johnson’s political future now depends on whether voters will forgive him for breaking his signature promise. Sometimes politicians can be destroyed by failing to deliver on a high-profile promise (eg George Bush putting up taxes, when Americans remembers “Read my lips, no new taxes”, and Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems putting up tuition fees, when they promised before the 2010 general election to vote against tuition fee increases). But sometimes politicians can get away with it (Tony Blair also broke a tuition fees promise), and so far the polling evidence suggests that Johnson (a politician who has more experience than most at getting away with flouting norms) and his party does not seem to have been damaged much by the expectation (confirmed this morning) that Brexit would be delayed. (See the polling below.) What seems to be working in his favour is the perception that at least he tried. Whether or not opinion turns against him on this later may decide the next election. The Élysée said France’s long-held preference for a much shorter extension had focused minds, put on pressure and allowed those clear conditions to be put in place.
Here's how the polls have changed since last week:CON: 35.1% (+0.3)LAB: 25.4% (-)LDEM: 18.1% (-0.1)BREX: 11.3% (-0.1)GRN: 4.0% (-0.2)via Britain Elects poll trackerMore: https://t.co/spVpGNV8oG pic.twitter.com/dCH4dacG8Z After Macron was styled by some media as seeking to put a spanner in the works of a longer extension, the Elysée official said this had never been France’s line.
3 - The EU decision will make it harder for Labour to justify opposing an early election. At one point Jeremy Corbyn was saying that, as soon as the Benn Act became law, Labour would be ready to vote for an election. With the party split internally about the wisdom of an early election, Corbyn has now setting new hurdles for what might be needed before his party would be willing to back an early poll. Yesterday the party said Johnson would have to rule out a no-deal Brexit in all circumstances before Labour would agree to an election. But this argument is starting to sound tenuous (at other times the party has said assurances from Johnson cannot be believed), and so it is conceivable that Corbyn could lift his opposition to an early poll. A veto or tension is not our approach. We always build a collective solution in the end ... The most important issue is the unity of the EU’s 27 members. We wanted to preserve that unity without creating a crisis over Brexit. Because the worst outcome would be for Brexit – a British political crisis – to be imported to the EU and spread a form of poison and division that we don’t want.
From PoliticsHome’s Kevin Schofield The source added that France’s main concern was to stay out of British internal politics and to ensure that a Brexit extension was justified.
People's Vote staff have just staged a walkout after new chief executive Patrick Heneghan told them Roland Rudd would not address them. Some said we were playing Boris Johnson’s game, or the British opposition’s game. We have never tried to take any part in Britain’s internal game.
People's Vote source adds: "The fact Rudd was on Sky at the time but refusing to speak to staff did not help the mood." The official said Macron had no interest in imposing a General de Gaulle or Napoleon-inspired “splendid isolation” within the EU.
We have not had a response from No 10 yet to the EU Brexit extension decision. But under the terms of the Benn act (the law that was passed requiring Boris Johnson to request an extension), he has to accept the offer. This is what it says in section 3(1): France has now insisted that in December the EU’s 27 members must sit down in the cold light of day to hold discussions on strategy for the future negotiations over the relationship with the UK. The official said:
If the European council decides to agree an extension of the period in article 50(3) of the treaty on European Union ending at 11.00pm on 31 October 2019 to the period ending at 11.00pm on 31 January 2020, the prime minister must, immediately after such a decision is made, notify the president of the European council that the United Kingdom agrees to the proposed extension. It’s healthy to sit down and lay out our ideas for future negotiations, to stop reacting in the heat of the moment to this or that Brexit event.
Here is our main story from Daniel Boffey and Jon Henley about the EU offering a Brexit “flextension” until 31 January. Yesterday Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish first minister and SNP leader, posted a thread on Twitter explaining why her party was supporting the Lib Dem call for an early election. She said there was no evidence that there was a majority in parliament now for a second referendum. And she also commended this article by the prominent anti-Brexit journalist Ian Dunt arguing why an election now was probably the best option for remainers. Her thread starts here.
EU agrees Brexit extension to 31 January 1/ A thread on our call for a general election. Firstly, we have to ask ourselves what the alternative is. Doing nothing allows Johnson to get his bad deal through (with Lab support) or, even worse, run down clock to end January when no deal becomes a real risk all over again
From the French journalist Quentin Aries The SNP normally works closely with Plaid Cymru, the Welsh nationalist party, but on this issue the two nationalist parties are divided. Plaid Cymru says a second referendum should come first. In a statement Liz Saville Roberts, its leader at Westminster, said:
EU source "Tusk will launch the written procedure among EU27 with a deadline of 24h."Meaning: the formal decision of the Brexit delay is expected on Tuesday or Wednesday.#Brexit Boris Johnson has failed to deliver on yet another promise. Working together, opposition parties have stopped Mr Johnson delivering his damaging Brexit deal – or no deal – on Halloween.
From Sky News Those of us opposed to inflicting the harm of Brexit on the four nations of the UK must now unite again to deliver the most sensible way to end this mess – a final say referendum.
EU chief Brexit negotiator @MichelBarnier says he is 'content' that the EU has agreed to a '#flextension' until January 2020.Read the latest on #Brexit: https://t.co/R8Bh7frtRV pic.twitter.com/Sy24XCd8zk The extension granted by the EU should now be used to secure a people’s vote and end the Brexit chaos.
Bloomberg’s Nikos Chrysoloras has a helpful summary of the “flextension” proposal from the EU. If the government fail to deliver this, opposition parties must work together, and if necessary, form a caretaker government to deliver this most democratic solution to Brexit.
So what's in the Brexit flextension agreement? Key points: pic.twitter.com/tDu5fBuyIQ These are from the Daily Mirror’s Dan Bloom.
One of the reasons by the Liberal Democrats and the SNP are pushing for an election now is because they have given up hope of MPs voting for a second referendum in this parliament. This is how Jo Swinson, the Lib Dem leader, explained it on the Andrew Marr Show yesterday. She said: NEW - Lib Dem source indicates they’ll back a government one-line Bill for a general election, similar to their own, if No10 decide to bring it forward themselves tomorrow. ‘Can’t see any problem’ with that and it’ll actually be ‘some help’ in getting it through the Lords.
I have worked hard in parliament to try to secure a majority for a people’s vote. It hasn’t been forthcoming. Even this week we tabled an amendment. We have tabled amendments for a people’s vote 17 times and Labour have not backed them in sufficient numbers. In contrast, 19 Labour MPs voted for Boris Johnson’s deal. Lib Dems have three conditions on backing No10 election Bill:1 Protection from no deal 2 Don’t use it to ram through the WAB3 Date of election must be explicit in Bill
But this morning Tom Baldwin, communications director for the People’s Vote campaign, insisted that there was a majority in the current House of Commons for a second referendum. He told the Today programme: Lib Dem source NOT completely ruling out tabling or backing amendments to an election Bill. ‘Never say never’. But they say many issues could be ruled out of scope and amendments could scupper bid to get it through Commons and Lords in two days.
The more people look at Boris Johnson’s deal, the more they realise this is perhaps not quite what was promised. And if we can expose Boris Johnson’s deal for what it is, I believe there is a majority in the current House of Commons for a confirmatory referendum. Ahead of the vote this afternoon on his call for an early election, Boris Johnson has used a Commons written statement to set out the election timetable that would be followed if he secures the two-thirds majority required under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act for an early election to go ahead. He said:
When challenged on this, he repeated the point about the majority being there for a second referendum once the flaws in Johnson’s deal were obvious. He explained: The government has tabled a motion proposing that an early general election be held. The motion is in the terms set out in section 2(2) of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011. If agreed to by a super-majority of the House of Commons, an early election will take place in accordance with that act.
[The majority is there] when you have exposed Boris Johnson’s deal for what it is. What I have said all the way through is that our strategy is to be the last thing standing. We are not an option in this crisis. We are a solution to it. In the event this house approves the motion for an early election, I will recommend that Her Majesty the Queen appoints 12 December as the date of the general election. This would mean parliament dissolving just after midnight on 6 November.
I described Baldwin as the communications director of the People’s Vote campaign but that is a moot point because Baldwin was on the programme to discuss the reports that emerged last night that he had been sacked. Here is our overnight story about the row. In line with the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, the date of parliament’s return will be set by royal proclamation following dissolution, and I will recommend to the Queen that the first meeting of the new parliament takes place before 23 December.
People's Vote senior figures forced out Labour says it will only back an early election when a no-deal Brexit has been taken off the table and one concern it has raised is that an early election could result in a new government not taking office until mid January, leaving it very little time to pass a new deal. Johnson declaration that the new parliament would meet before Christmas in the event of the election taking place on Thursday 12 December seems intended to address this point.
Baldwin told the Today programme that he did not actually work for Roland Rudd, one of the People’s Vote campaign figureheads and the person who supposedly sacked him, and that he would be going into work as normal today. Government sources are now briefing the broadcasters that if Boris Johnson fails to get the two-thirds majority needed this evening to trigger an early election under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, he will table a very similar bill tomorrow. These are from Laura Kuenssberg, Robert Peston and Beth Rigby, political editors at the BBC, ITV and Sky respectively.
In a subsequent interview Rudd said that Baldwin had not been fired, but that he was being offered “an opportunity for a different type of role”. Govt likely to table similar bill to lib Dems and SNP tomorrow if they fail to get election tonight - no 10 source says they 'will introduce a bill almost identical to the Lib Dem-SNP bill and we will have a pre-Christmas election anyway'
Rudd also said he thought there was “a real opportunity” this week to get MPs to vote for a confirmatory referendum. “We’ve got more MPs supporting us than ever before and I think we have every chance to be able to get that prize, which is being able to put it back to the people,” he said. As I mentioned yesterday, @BorisJohnson plan is to bring general-election bill tomorrow “almost identical” to LibDem one if Labour fails to support his election motion tonight. The devil will be in the “almost identical” detail
As Michael Savage explained in this Observer article at the weekend, the row at the People’s Vote campaign is largely about strategy, and the extent to which it should transform into an overt remain campaign. But, as with most feuds in smallish political organisation, personality clashes are thought to have been a factor too. FTPA vote almost certain to fail. Understand No 10 is instead planning to introduce a Bill similar to LD/SNP one Tues in order to try push for pre-Xmas elec > But if one line Bill, it’s amendable. LDs said wouldn’t amend bill. But Lab surely will & does it then become unfeasible
People’s Vote supporters can take comfort from the fact that something very similar happened to the Vote Leave campaign in 2016. Dominic Cummings, its campaign director, came close to being ousted in a boardroom coup, but survived. Vote Leave went on to win. No 10 did not go quite this far on the record at the morning lobby briefing, but journalists who attended were left with the impression that this was being planned (see 12.15pm) and it is also what Gavin Williamson, the education secretary, was suggesting in interviews this morning. (See 8.39am.)
There are two Commons statements today, and no urgent questions. That means the debate on holding an early election should start soon after 5.30pm, with the vote soon after 7pm (90 minutes later).
Two statements:1) Update on the major incident in Essex - @patel4witham 2) shared rural network - @NickyMorgan01
Boris Johnson has no intention of apologising for failing to meet his repeatedly promised deadline of 31 October to leave the EU, and believes parliament is to blame for the delay, Downing Street has said.
At the regular lobby briefing there was not, as yet, a formal response to the EU’s offer of another extension, to 31 January. Johnson’s spokesman said the PM was in Essex on a visit connected to the death last week of 39 people found in the back of lorry. He said:
The PM has not yet seen the EU’s response to parliament’s request for a delay, and the PM will respond once he has seen the detail. His view has not changed: parliament should not have put the UK in this position and we should be leaving on 31 October.
With a delay inevitable, Johnson’s spokesman was repeatedly pressed on whether the PM had any contrition for failing to keep to the key campaign pledge which arguably most helped him become Conservative leader and thus enter No 10. The answer, while oblique, was a definite “no”. His spokesman said:
What the prime minister has done, despite being told it was impossible, was secure a deal and set out a timetable which would have allowed us to deliver that deal on 31 October. Parliament has stood in the way of being able to deliver Brexit.
Pressed repeatedly on the matter, he eventually said: “I think I’ve said all I have to say on that matter.”
What does seem more likely is that Downing Street could embrace a version of the Lib Dem-inspired plan to force an election via a new bill requiring a simple majority in the Commons, if its attempt to call one through a motion under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act (FTPA) does not reach the necessary two-thirds majority, as seems inevitable.
Asked about the idea of a bill-based election, Johnson’s spokesman said the government was “currently focused on the FTPA bill”.
But if this falls, it seems there could be movement on an election bill pretty quickly. It is understood the government could even accept the Lib Dems’ preferred election date of 9 December, meaning that, to allow the required five-week campaign period, the election would need to be called this week.
With parliament not due to sit on Friday, and set to be dominated on Wednesday by the response to the report into the Grenfell tragedy, that would leave Tuesday or Thursday.
Yet even with this tight timetable, so far there have been no talks between the Lib Dems and No 10.