Tuesday briefing: Election bid hinges on Lib Dems and SNP

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/29/tuesday-briefing-election-bid-hinges-on-lib-dems-and-snp

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Top story: ‘We will not bring back withdrawal bill’

Hello – Warren Murray helping you embark upon another Tuesday.

After another failure yesterday, Boris Johnson will abandon attempts to push his Brexit bill through this parliament – aiming instead to get the Liberal Democrats and the SNP to agree to an election before Christmas. The Commons leader, Jacob Rees-Mogg, told MPs that all stages of legislation to trigger an early general election would go through the Commons on Tuesday, adding: “I can assure this House that we will not bring back the withdrawal agreement bill.” Operation Yellowhammer, the plan to keep Britain running in the event of a no-deal Brexit, has been shelved.

The parties are still in dispute over the potential date – the Lib Dem leader, Jo Swinson, is not happy with Johnson’s preference, 12 December, which is after many universities have broken up for Christmas and students have returned to their home towns.

Meanwhile Johnson’s government is predicted to overshoot its deficit target by £16bn this year after £43bn was ripped from the Treasury by a series of spending pledges, an economic slowdown and the spiralling cost of student loans. The independent Resolution Foundation warns that the £27bn allocated by then-chancellor Philip Hammond to cope with the costs of Brexit has evaporated and the Treasury looks set to break its rule capping the annual spending shortfall at 2% of GDP.

Shark bites off Briton’s foot – A British tourist lost his foot as he and another Briton were mauled by a shark in the Whitsunday region of north Queensland. The two men, both in their 30s, were airlifted to hospital in the city of Mackay with serious lower leg injuries after being attacked on a day excursion to Hook Passage, about 30km from the resort of Airlie Beach. The attack took place about 10.20am Tuesday, local time.

Major failings allowed Grenfell disaster – The London fire brigade’s readiness for the Grenfell Tower fire was gravely inadequate and fewer people would have died if it had been better prepared, the report into the disaster that killed 72 people has concluded. Contrary to evidence of the cladding manufacturer Arconic, the main reason the flames spread so rapidly up the building was its aluminium-polyethylene composite panels, wrote Sir Martin Moore-Bick, the retired judge heading the inquiry. Despite knowing about the dangers of cladding panels, the LFB had not prepared adequately. More lives could have been saved if firefighters had realised earlier the fire was out of control and ordered a full evacuation. Moore-Bick praised the “extraordinary courage and selfless devotion to duty” of rank-and-file firefighters, both on the ground and in the control room. The second phase of the inquiry, which begins next year, will examine the refurbishment project that preceded the fire.

Trump-Ukraine vote planned – The US House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, will call a vote to formalise the impeachment inquiry under way against Donald Trump. Republicans have argued the inquiry is invalid because the House didn’t vote on it. “This argument has no merit,” Pelosi said – no vote is required by the US constitution. But given White House obstruction of the inquiry, she would hold a vote to make clear the Trump administration must co-operate: “Nobody is above the law.” Today the top Ukraine expert on the US national security council is expected to tell the inquiry that he “did not think it was proper to demand that a foreign government investigate a US citizen”. According to a leaked statement, Alexander Vindman, a lieutenant colonel and Purple Heart recipient, will say: “I realised that if Ukraine pursued an investigation into the Bidens and Burisma it would likely be interpreted as a partisan play which would undoubtedly result in Ukraine losing the bipartisan support it has thus far maintained.”

Cannabis no panacea – The use of cannabis medicines in the treatment of mental health issues carries more risks than benefits, a review of 40 years’ worth of trials has found. Professor Louisa Degenhardt, lead author of the study, said of all research carried out there was only “low-quality evidence” of THC being helpful with conditions such as anxiety and depression, as opposed to “a large body of research” of its potential harms. “This research suggests that cannabis use can increase the occurrence of depression, anxiety, and psychotic symptom,” says the paper. A well-constructed study found that smoked cannabis increased the risk of acute psychotic symptoms. Young adults, the age group more likely to suffer from anxiety, depression and psychosis, were more likely to become dependent if using cannabis daily over a long period of time.

Small details caught Baghdadi – The Kurdish army in Syria says one of its spies stole the underpants of the Isis leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi to get the DNA that was used to identify him. “Our own source, who had been able to reach al-Baghdadi, brought al-Baghdadi’s underwear to conduct a DNA test and make sure 100% that the person in question was al-Baghdadi himself,” said Polat Can, a senior official in the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Baghdadi blew himself up to avoid capture when US special forces swooped. Can said a decision to eliminate Baghdadi was made “more than a month ago” but this was delayed when Donald Trump allowed Turkey to invade Kurdish-held territory in Syria. And the special forces dog that chased down Baghdadi has been celebrated as a hero. A photo has been released – but the canine’s name remains classified.

Today in Focus podcast: Weinstein was just the beginning

When Jodi Kantor and Megan Twohey began investigating Harvey Weinstein, they had no idea it would ignite a global reckoning on sexual harassment resulting in #MeToo. And: Rafael Behr on the likelihood of a winter election.

Sorry your browser does not support audio - but you can download here and listen https://audio.guim.co.uk/2019/10/28-70306-20191029_TIF_SheSaid.mp3

Lunchtime read: Forgotten corners of the Berlin Wall

Every five years there is an anniversary to mark the fall of the Berlin Wall, and this year is a particular milestone, as on next week’s 30th anniversary (9 November) the wall will have been down longer than the 28 years it stood.

From 4-11 November the city will host more than 200 events to “celebrate and remember”, including films and documentaries, photo exhibitions and concerts (including an appearance from Patti Smith), art installations and talks – taking place at Wall-related spots, such as the Brandenburg Gate, Alexanderplatz, and the East Side Gallery. Paul Sullivan writes that the anniversary marks a great chance to see some fascinating and less well known reminders of a divided city.

Sport

England’s head coach, Eddie Jones, will not over-exert his players this week and admits aggressive South Africa will be “a difficult side to beat” in Saturday’s Rugby World Cup final. Wayne Pivac will take over from Warren Gatland as Wales head coach after the tournament in Japan but, like his predecessor, he will find that he has to spot then develop his own Test players.

Supporters’ groups are to meet the Premier League today to demand action on VAR after another weekend of chaos beset video refereeing technology. The Liverpool midfielder James Milner is no fan of the technology and says it is ruining the atmosphere at matches. Aidan O’Brien must travel to this year’s Breeders’ Cup without the animal he recently described as “the ultimate racehorse”, Magical having been found to have a temperature shortly before she was due to fly. Simona Halep, the Wimbledon champion, valiantly saved a match point and recovered from a set down to defeat Bianca Andreescu, the US Open champion, in a dramatic battle at the WTA Finals. And Granit Xhaka’s shocking fallout with Arsenal fans is born of frustration at the slow decline at the club caused by mismanagement on and off the pitch, writes Nick Ames.

Business

Shares have been mixed in Asia with Chinese benchmarks falling after the S&P 500 index closed at an all-time high, ahead of a busy week of corporate earnings and economic reports, and expectation of another another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index has gained along with Taiwan, Bangkok and Singapore. There have been falls in Hong Kong, Shanghai, South Korea and Jakarta. The pound is worth $1.285 and €1.158 at time of writing. The FTSE is down a few points.

The papers

Almost every paper focuses on Boris Johnson’s plan today to secure a pre-Christmas election – on 12 December to be exact. The Mail asks: “Can Boris win his Christmas gamble?” and reports that the prime minister is on the brink of sealing an election deal. The Guardian says Johnson has abandoned his Brexit bill in the hope that the move will curry enough favour with the Lib Dems and SNP to win a fresh push for an election. Other stories include heightened fears of Isis revenge attacks and the BBC equal pay row.

The Times carries the same line on Brexit in a single-column story, with a bravely deep picture of Johnson’s furrowed brow eyeing No 10 but it splashes on findings suggesting aspirin can tackle depression symptoms. The Sun returns to the Jeremy Corbyn chicken theme with a “12 Fright” headline, accusing the Labour leader of running scared from an election. The Express says: “PM: Bring it on for Dec 12!” and reports that a defiant PM will today make attempt No 4 to go to the polls. Holly Willougby at the Pride of Britain awards gets the picture slot.

The i injects more doubt into the issue, focusing on senior Tories’ fears that voters will punish the party if Johnson succeeds in calling an election. The FT adds a note of drama with the headline: “Johnson raises stakes in fresh election gambit”. The Mirror splashes on the Keith Vaz ban over the sex workers scandal, with the headline: “Not fit to be an MP”.

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