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| Jobs Report: U.S. Added 128,000 to Payrolls Despite G.M. Strike | Jobs Report: U.S. Added 128,000 to Payrolls Despite G.M. Strike |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| ■ 128,000 jobs were added last month, the Labor Department reported on Friday. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a gain of about 85,000. | ■ 128,000 jobs were added last month, the Labor Department reported on Friday. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a gain of about 85,000. |
| ■ The unemployment rate was 3.6 percent, up from 3.5 percent the month before. | ■ The unemployment rate was 3.6 percent, up from 3.5 percent the month before. |
| ■ Average hourly earnings rose 3 percent from a year earlier. | ■ Average hourly earnings rose 3 percent from a year earlier. |
| ■ Estimates of job growth in August and September were revised upward by a combined 95,000 jobs. | ■ Estimates of job growth in August and September were revised upward by a combined 95,000 jobs. |
| A major auto strike and a slowing manufacturing sector weren’t enough to knock the American job market off course last month. | |
| Employers added 128,000 jobs in October, the Labor Department said Friday, and revisions to prior months’ data tacked on another 95,000 jobs. October’s figure would have been stronger had it not been for the strike at General Motors, which shaved close to 50,000 workers from the employment rolls, and for the layoff of some 15,000 temporary census workers. | |
| All told, the report painted a picture of a job market that is weathering the storm of trade tensions and cooling global growth, largely because of a resilient, consumer-driven domestic economy. | |
| “As long as confidence remains pretty elevated, as long as job gains continue albeit at a slower pace, and as long as those job gains continue to deliver wage growth, consumption should continue to drive the economy,” said Ben Herzon, an economist for Macroeconomic Advisers, a forecasting firm. | “As long as confidence remains pretty elevated, as long as job gains continue albeit at a slower pace, and as long as those job gains continue to deliver wage growth, consumption should continue to drive the economy,” said Ben Herzon, an economist for Macroeconomic Advisers, a forecasting firm. |
| The labor market has been a bastion of consistency throughout the economic expansion, steadily adding jobs despite natural disasters, government shutdowns and political turmoil. The United States has now experienced 109 straight months of job gains, more than double the previous record. | The labor market has been a bastion of consistency throughout the economic expansion, steadily adding jobs despite natural disasters, government shutdowns and political turmoil. The United States has now experienced 109 straight months of job gains, more than double the previous record. |
| Lately, however, there have been signs that the jobs engine is losing momentum. Job growth has averaged 176,000 jobs per month over the past three months, down from 222,000 over the same period a year ago. | Lately, however, there have been signs that the jobs engine is losing momentum. Job growth has averaged 176,000 jobs per month over the past three months, down from 222,000 over the same period a year ago. |
| Hiring last year got a push from the 2017 tax cuts, so some slowdown was to be expected as the effects of the cuts wore off. The question is whether hiring stabilizes at a somewhat lower level or continues to fall. Friday’s report, though only a single data point, suggests stabilization is more likely. | Hiring last year got a push from the 2017 tax cuts, so some slowdown was to be expected as the effects of the cuts wore off. The question is whether hiring stabilizes at a somewhat lower level or continues to fall. Friday’s report, though only a single data point, suggests stabilization is more likely. |
| “It’s still respectable,” said Julia Pollak, a labor economist for ZipRecruiter, an online job marketplace. “Slow and steady is not necessarily bad.” | “It’s still respectable,” said Julia Pollak, a labor economist for ZipRecruiter, an online job marketplace. “Slow and steady is not necessarily bad.” |
| [Even with the low unemployment rate, many Americans are having trouble finding work after losing it. | Times readers shared their stories of struggling to find work.] | [Even with the low unemployment rate, many Americans are having trouble finding work after losing it. | Times readers shared their stories of struggling to find work.] |
| A sharper slowdown in hiring would be bad news for President Trump, who has made the strong economy a central selling point in his bid for re-election. And it could also raise concern at the Federal Reserve. Policymakers at the bank cut interest rates on Wednesday in a bid to shore up the economy, but signaled that they would probably pause to assess fresh data before cutting again. | A sharper slowdown in hiring would be bad news for President Trump, who has made the strong economy a central selling point in his bid for re-election. And it could also raise concern at the Federal Reserve. Policymakers at the bank cut interest rates on Wednesday in a bid to shore up the economy, but signaled that they would probably pause to assess fresh data before cutting again. |
| Consumers have been the main pillar holding up the economy. So far, they’re doing fine — consumer spending was strong in the third quarter, helping to offset weakness elsewhere. | Consumers have been the main pillar holding up the economy. So far, they’re doing fine — consumer spending was strong in the third quarter, helping to offset weakness elsewhere. |
| Those same patterns are playing out in the job market. Job growth in manufacturing, which experienced a mini-surge early in Mr. Trump’s term, has slowed recently, as has hiring in the oil patch. | Those same patterns are playing out in the job market. Job growth in manufacturing, which experienced a mini-surge early in Mr. Trump’s term, has slowed recently, as has hiring in the oil patch. |
| But the service sector has remained strong. Hotels and restaurants added more than 50,000 jobs in October, and even the struggling retail sector posted a second straight month of gains after months of steady losses. And revisions to earlier data erased hints that the slowdown was spreading. | But the service sector has remained strong. Hotels and restaurants added more than 50,000 jobs in October, and even the struggling retail sector posted a second straight month of gains after months of steady losses. And revisions to earlier data erased hints that the slowdown was spreading. |
| “We could accept data that shows weakness in manufacturing,” said Michelle Meyer, head of United States economics for Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “Where it becomes a lot more problematic is if that weakness is spreading. We were starting to see indications of that the last few months, but they’ve now been revised away. It’s painting a brighter picture of the service sector of the economy.” | “We could accept data that shows weakness in manufacturing,” said Michelle Meyer, head of United States economics for Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “Where it becomes a lot more problematic is if that weakness is spreading. We were starting to see indications of that the last few months, but they’ve now been revised away. It’s painting a brighter picture of the service sector of the economy.” |
| That divergence — between confident consumers and wary businesses — cannot continue forever. Eventually, either businesses will start to cut jobs, a surefire way to erode consumers’ confidence, or free-spending shoppers will set executives’ minds at ease and encourage them to ramp up production again. | That divergence — between confident consumers and wary businesses — cannot continue forever. Eventually, either businesses will start to cut jobs, a surefire way to erode consumers’ confidence, or free-spending shoppers will set executives’ minds at ease and encourage them to ramp up production again. |
| “At some point in time, either the business sector has to come back or the consumer will falter,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist for the accounting firm Grant Thornton. | “At some point in time, either the business sector has to come back or the consumer will falter,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist for the accounting firm Grant Thornton. |
| Even as economists worry about signs of a hiring slowdown, many employers are focused on a different challenge: how to find workers at a time when the unemployment rate remains near a half-century low. | Even as economists worry about signs of a hiring slowdown, many employers are focused on a different challenge: how to find workers at a time when the unemployment rate remains near a half-century low. |
| “The number-one concern, for sure, continues to be finding and retaining talent,” said Becky Frankiewicz, president of Manpower Group, the staffing firm. | “The number-one concern, for sure, continues to be finding and retaining talent,” said Becky Frankiewicz, president of Manpower Group, the staffing firm. |
| To fill jobs, companies are eliminating degree and certification requirements, improving perks and benefits, and recruiting stay-at-home parents, retirees and people with disabilities and criminal records. But one thing they remain reluctant to do, Ms. Frankiewicz said, is raise pay. | To fill jobs, companies are eliminating degree and certification requirements, improving perks and benefits, and recruiting stay-at-home parents, retirees and people with disabilities and criminal records. But one thing they remain reluctant to do, Ms. Frankiewicz said, is raise pay. |
| “It continues to perplex me,” she said. “The defining challenge for economic growth is going to be bringing people in from the sidelines, and I absolutely believe that’s going to require wage acceleration.” | “It continues to perplex me,” she said. “The defining challenge for economic growth is going to be bringing people in from the sidelines, and I absolutely believe that’s going to require wage acceleration.” |
| Hourly wage growth has been anemic for much of the recovery, and has stalled again recently. Average earnings growth picked up slightly in October, and was also revised upward for September, but growth has slowed over the past year. | Hourly wage growth has been anemic for much of the recovery, and has stalled again recently. Average earnings growth picked up slightly in October, and was also revised upward for September, but growth has slowed over the past year. |
| Weak wage growth is a challenge not just for workers but also for the broader economy. The length of the average workweek has also fallen slightly, particularly in manufacturing. Without more pay and more hours, it will be hard for consumers to keep spending more money. | Weak wage growth is a challenge not just for workers but also for the broader economy. The length of the average workweek has also fallen slightly, particularly in manufacturing. Without more pay and more hours, it will be hard for consumers to keep spending more money. |
| In October 2009, the unemployment rate hit 10 percent, the worst mark of the worst recession since the Great Depression. A decade later, the unemployment rate is hovering close to a 50-year low. There is no doubt that the economy has improved substantially during what is now the longest expansion in American history. | In October 2009, the unemployment rate hit 10 percent, the worst mark of the worst recession since the Great Depression. A decade later, the unemployment rate is hovering close to a 50-year low. There is no doubt that the economy has improved substantially during what is now the longest expansion in American history. |
| But by many measures, the labor market is still not as strong as at the peak of past economic cycles. A smaller share of working-age adults — particularly men — have full-time jobs, and wage growth has been slow. | But by many measures, the labor market is still not as strong as at the peak of past economic cycles. A smaller share of working-age adults — particularly men — have full-time jobs, and wage growth has been slow. |
| “The question is always, ‘compared to what?’” said Oren Cass, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, a right-leaning think tank. “We should certainly celebrate that the unemployment rate is low and that the expansion has gone on as long as it has.” At the same time, he said, “if you ask how does this look relative to 2006-2007 or 1999-2000, it just doesn’t look as good on almost any metric.” | “The question is always, ‘compared to what?’” said Oren Cass, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, a right-leaning think tank. “We should certainly celebrate that the unemployment rate is low and that the expansion has gone on as long as it has.” At the same time, he said, “if you ask how does this look relative to 2006-2007 or 1999-2000, it just doesn’t look as good on almost any metric.” |
| Mr. Cass said the relative weakness was partly the result of long-term structural changes in the American economy. But it also suggests that there is room for further improvement if the expansion can continue. Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, has said that one reason policymakers are cutting interest rates is that the recovery is only now reaching people with criminal records, people with less education, or others who often face barriers to employment. | Mr. Cass said the relative weakness was partly the result of long-term structural changes in the American economy. But it also suggests that there is room for further improvement if the expansion can continue. Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, has said that one reason policymakers are cutting interest rates is that the recovery is only now reaching people with criminal records, people with less education, or others who often face barriers to employment. |