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Warren and Buttigieg Gain Momentum in Iowa Democratic Race Warren and Buttigieg Surge in Iowa at Expense of Sanders and Biden
(about 4 hours later)
CEDAR RAPIDS, Iowa — For months, the presidential race in Iowa was a contest between two titans of the Democratic political world, each representing distinct poles of a party struggling to define its identity in the Trump era.CEDAR RAPIDS, Iowa — For months, the presidential race in Iowa was a contest between two titans of the Democratic political world, each representing distinct poles of a party struggling to define its identity in the Trump era.
Now, with just three months to go before the caucuses, the ideological debate has remained the same, but the key players have shifted.Now, with just three months to go before the caucuses, the ideological debate has remained the same, but the key players have shifted.
For now, former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. is being eclipsed by Mayor Pete Buttigieg, of South Bend, Ind., a Midwestern mayor less than half his age who has captured the energy of those looking for the party to move in a more centrist direction. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont has seen much of the message that boosted him to political fame in the 2016 primary contest co-opted by Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. For now, former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. is being eclipsed by Mayor Pete Buttigieg, of South Bend, Ind., a Midwestern mayor less than half his age who has captured the energy of those looking for the party to move in a more centrist direction. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont has seen much of the message that had lifted him to political fame in the 2016 primary contest co-opted by Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts.
In polling, enthusiasm and organization, there is now a yawning gap between Ms. Warren, Mr. Sanders, Mr. Biden, and Mr. Buttigieg and the other 13 Democrats still running for president. A poll taken this week of likely caucusgoers by The New York Times and Siena College shows the top four candidates locked in a virtual tie atop the field, with the next contenders — starting with Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, at least 13 percentage points behind. In polling, enthusiasm and organization, there is now a yawning gap between Ms. Warren, Mr. Sanders, Mr. Biden, Mr. Buttigieg and the other 13 Democrats running for president. A poll taken this week of likely caucusgoers by The New York Times and Siena College shows the top four candidates locked in a virtual tie atop the field, with the next contenders — starting with Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, at least 13 percentage points behind.
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Yet, amid a field that once numbered two dozen, it is Ms. Warren and Mr. Buttigieg who have emerged as coveted fresh faces, riding a surge of momentum. Both have been rising for months — Mr. Buttigieg from the obscurity of leading a community of 100,000 people and Ms. Warren from early campaign missteps highlighted by her ill-fated decision to release a DNA test designed to combat charges that she exaggerated her Native American ancestry. Yet, in a field that once numbered two dozen, it is Ms. Warren and Mr. Buttigieg who have emerged as coveted fresh faces, riding a surge of momentum. Both have been rising for months — Mr. Buttigieg from the obscurity of leading a community of 100,000 people and Ms. Warren from early campaign missteps highlighted by her ill-fated decision to release a DNA test designed to combat charges that she exaggerated her Native American ancestry.
With three months to go, the emergence of Ms. Warren and Mr. Buttigieg has confirmed that the race is entering a new phase, as Mr. Biden struggles to retain momentum and Mr. Sanders attempts to expand his base beyond his core supporters. With three months to go, the emergence of Ms. Warren and Mr. Buttigieg has confirmed that the race is entering a new phase, as Mr. Biden struggles to regain momentum and Mr. Sanders attempts to expand his base beyond his core supporters.
“The Sanders people are mostly the same people that were Sanders people in 2016, but there seem to be fewer of them,” said JoAnn Hardy, the Democratic Party chairwoman in Cerro Gordo County, Iowa. “Some of them have moved on to other campaigns, not necessarily all to Warren. Warren has a wider supporter base than just former Bernie supporters.”“The Sanders people are mostly the same people that were Sanders people in 2016, but there seem to be fewer of them,” said JoAnn Hardy, the Democratic Party chairwoman in Cerro Gordo County, Iowa. “Some of them have moved on to other campaigns, not necessarily all to Warren. Warren has a wider supporter base than just former Bernie supporters.”
Mr. Buttigieg himself declared the contest to be a “two-way race” in an interview with the Showtime television show “The Circus,” a comment that irked several others in the presidential race.
“Anybody who thinks that this is a two-person race right now doesn’t know Iowa,” former Housing Secretary Julián Castro told reporters Saturday.
For months Mr. Biden led polls in Iowa, but he has seen his support steadily shrink as other candidates have focused their time and attention on the state.For months Mr. Biden led polls in Iowa, but he has seen his support steadily shrink as other candidates have focused their time and attention on the state.
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“Some of the early Biden support was name recognition, some was familiarity, some was affection and respect,” said Kurt Meyer, the Democratic Party chairman of Mitchell County, Iowa. “But much of it had to be renewed and extended, much as one would renew a thick book at the local library, for it to last until early February.”“Some of the early Biden support was name recognition, some was familiarity, some was affection and respect,” said Kurt Meyer, the Democratic Party chairman of Mitchell County, Iowa. “But much of it had to be renewed and extended, much as one would renew a thick book at the local library, for it to last until early February.”
That has left many of the remaining 13 candidates scrambling for attention, relevance and desperately needed campaign dollars.That has left many of the remaining 13 candidates scrambling for attention, relevance and desperately needed campaign dollars.
Much of the debate among the quartet of top contenders this weekend centered around Ms. Warren’s long-awaited, $20.5 trillion proposal explaining how she would fund “Medicare for All,” which she released on Friday. Much of the debate among the quartet of top contenders this weekend centered around Ms. Warren’s long-awaited, $20.5 trillion proposal explaining how she would fund “Medicare for all,” which she released on Friday.
“Let’s get real, the numbers,” said Mr. Biden, at a campaign office opening in Des Moines on Saturday morning. “The idea that she can get the costs down to $20 trillion is, I don’t know, I mean, look, even $20 trillion, where’s she get the money?” Mr. Biden on Saturday bristled at Ms. Warren’s suggestion that he was borrowing Republican talking points about her health care proposal, while at the same time accusing her of peddling plans that have no chance of being enacted as law.
For Ms. Warren, it was the beginning of a crucial stretch during which she would be compelled to sell her new plan to voters. Though not all of her supporters had familiarized themselves with the details on Saturday morning, many seemed inclined to give her the benefit of the doubt. “To say that you’re a Republican or you’re not loyal or you have no courage if you don’t agree with such and such a position is no way to get anything passed, I promise you,” Mr. Biden told reporters after speaking at a fish fry hosted by first-term Representative Abby Finkenauer. “You couldn’t even get it passed. You have to be able to reach out.”
For Ms. Warren, the weekend marked the beginning of a crucial stretch during which she would be compelled to sell her new plan to voters. Though not all of her supporters had familiarized themselves with the details on Saturday morning, many seemed inclined to give her the benefit of the doubt.
“She is passionate about what she’s saying,” said Renee Lapan-Islas, 50, who came to see Ms. Warren speak in Vinton, Iowa. “We struggle for money at times because of health care.”“She is passionate about what she’s saying,” said Renee Lapan-Islas, 50, who came to see Ms. Warren speak in Vinton, Iowa. “We struggle for money at times because of health care.”
But Ms. Warren also faced a skeptical question from a voter with Type 1 diabetes, who expressed concern about the continuity of care under Ms. Warren’s proposed transition to “Medicare for all.”But Ms. Warren also faced a skeptical question from a voter with Type 1 diabetes, who expressed concern about the continuity of care under Ms. Warren’s proposed transition to “Medicare for all.”
“Health care is a basic human right, and we fight for basic human rights,” Ms. Warren said, adding that the approach was “about strengthening America’s middle class” and arguing that failing to dramatically overhaul the health care system would be calamitous over the long haul.“Health care is a basic human right, and we fight for basic human rights,” Ms. Warren said, adding that the approach was “about strengthening America’s middle class” and arguing that failing to dramatically overhaul the health care system would be calamitous over the long haul.
Other candidates, too, recognized the new order. Senator Kamala Harris, of California, took aim at Ms. Warren for representing corporate clients in her private law practice. Mr. Biden declared Ms. Warren’s health care proposal to be divisive. Senator Michael Bennet of Colorado and Gov. Steve Bullock of Montana denigrated the population of South Bend as relatively insignificant. At the fish fry, which drew the race’s seven leading candidates to a Cedar Rapids racetrack that has become a regular stop on the Democratic presidential campaign trail, the candidates parried question about rural infrastructure, river flooding and labor rights — the sort of bread-and-butter issues Ms. Finkenauer used last year to oust a Republican incumbent.
Ms. Finkenauer’s mother baked 750 cupcakes, which were heartily consumed by activists, campaign staffers and the assembled press.
Other candidates, too, recognized the new order. Mr. Biden declared Ms. Warren’s health care proposal to be divisive. Senator Michael Bennet of Colorado and Gov. Steve Bullock of Montana denigrated the population of South Bend as relatively insignificant.
The weekend began with the Liberty & Justice Celebration, a party dinner seen as the last major candidate gathering before the caucuses. While 13 candidates spoke, only about half drew any kind of notable support and, of those, Mr. Buttigieg and Ms. Warren were the only ones to draw thunderous applause from their speeches.The weekend began with the Liberty & Justice Celebration, a party dinner seen as the last major candidate gathering before the caucuses. While 13 candidates spoke, only about half drew any kind of notable support and, of those, Mr. Buttigieg and Ms. Warren were the only ones to draw thunderous applause from their speeches.
The weekend marked the latest public test of each campaign’s organizational prowess. The campaigns purchase tickets for the Friday night dinner, hoping to pack the hall with their supporters.The weekend marked the latest public test of each campaign’s organizational prowess. The campaigns purchase tickets for the Friday night dinner, hoping to pack the hall with their supporters.
Instead of rallying supporters for his speech, Mr. Sanders led a march that his campaign said attracted 1,500 people in the Des Moines drizzle. His aides said the campaign focused on organizing volunteers for the February caucus rather than a visible demonstration of enthusiasm inside the arena.Instead of rallying supporters for his speech, Mr. Sanders led a march that his campaign said attracted 1,500 people in the Des Moines drizzle. His aides said the campaign focused on organizing volunteers for the February caucus rather than a visible demonstration of enthusiasm inside the arena.
Mr. Biden hosted no such demonstration: Before the event began, allies of Mr. Biden quietly collected signs and noisemakers that had been placed out for supporters who never arrived.Mr. Biden hosted no such demonstration: Before the event began, allies of Mr. Biden quietly collected signs and noisemakers that had been placed out for supporters who never arrived.
At the end of his remarks, Mr. Biden asked the audience to “get up” and defeat President Trump.At the end of his remarks, Mr. Biden asked the audience to “get up” and defeat President Trump.
Nearly everyone remained seated.Nearly everyone remained seated.
Katie Glueck contributed reporting from Des Moines and Matt Flegenheimer reporting from Vinton, Iowa. Katie Glueck contributed reporting from Des Moines and Matt Flegenheimer added reporting from Vinton, Iowa.