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General election 2019: Will the 'youthquake' be more of a tremor? | General election 2019: Will the 'youthquake' be more of a tremor? |
(2 days later) | |
More than 270,000 people under 35 registered to vote in the first few days since MPs agreed to hold a general election. | |
Currently, they count for the majority of all new voter registrations. | Currently, they count for the majority of all new voter registrations. |
Some politicians will be hoping - or fearing - that this could be the start of a so-called "youthquake" of young voters becoming turned on by politics, and potentially disrupting the electoral playing field. | Some politicians will be hoping - or fearing - that this could be the start of a so-called "youthquake" of young voters becoming turned on by politics, and potentially disrupting the electoral playing field. |
But it might not be quite so simple. | But it might not be quite so simple. |
Voter surge? | Voter surge? |
On Tuesday 29 October, it became clear that MPs were going to grant the Prime Minister the early election he has pushed for. | On Tuesday 29 October, it became clear that MPs were going to grant the Prime Minister the early election he has pushed for. |
As a result, there was an immediate increase in people registering to vote. | As a result, there was an immediate increase in people registering to vote. |
There were 425,000 applications over the three days leading up to 31 October. | There were 425,000 applications over the three days leading up to 31 October. |
This was largely driven by younger people - of those who registered 274,000 were aged between 18 and 34 years old. | This was largely driven by younger people - of those who registered 274,000 were aged between 18 and 34 years old. |
In comparison, in the three days after an election was called in 2017, there were only 296,000 new registrations. | In comparison, in the three days after an election was called in 2017, there were only 296,000 new registrations. |
And 203,000 of those were from voters aged under-35. | And 203,000 of those were from voters aged under-35. |
So it seems fair to say that more young people have registered to vote in the first few days this time around. | So it seems fair to say that more young people have registered to vote in the first few days this time around. |
Dig deeper though, and it's not so clear that this does add up to a potential 2019 festive youthquake. | Dig deeper though, and it's not so clear that this does add up to a potential 2019 festive youthquake. |
The increase in applications is not just explained by politically engaged millennials. In fact, the proportion of young people registering has dipped very slightly. | The increase in applications is not just explained by politically engaged millennials. In fact, the proportion of young people registering has dipped very slightly. |
In 2017, 68.5% of registrations in those first few days were voters under-35. | In 2017, 68.5% of registrations in those first few days were voters under-35. |
This time around, it's actually 64.5%. | This time around, it's actually 64.5%. |
So really, all we can accurately say, is that more people are registering to vote, more quickly now. | So really, all we can accurately say, is that more people are registering to vote, more quickly now. |
It makes sense too, that more young people will need to register than other age groups. | It makes sense too, that more young people will need to register than other age groups. |
In the UK, everyone who wants to take part in an election has to register to vote - it doesn't happen automatically. | In the UK, everyone who wants to take part in an election has to register to vote - it doesn't happen automatically. |
The final date to do it before this election is 26 November. | The final date to do it before this election is 26 November. |
In October, the Electoral Reform Society suggested that more than 9 million people could be missing from the electoral roll. | In October, the Electoral Reform Society suggested that more than 9 million people could be missing from the electoral roll. |
Younger voters, anyone who has moved house recently, and renters are less likely to be on the the list of registered voters. | Younger voters, anyone who has moved house recently, and renters are less likely to be on the the list of registered voters. |
The Electoral Commission says only 71% of 18-34 year olds are correctly registered. | The Electoral Commission says only 71% of 18-34 year olds are correctly registered. |
So it makes some sense that when an election is called, the majority of new registrations will be younger voters. | So it makes some sense that when an election is called, the majority of new registrations will be younger voters. |
This isn't the first we've heard of a youthquake | This isn't the first we've heard of a youthquake |
It was actually the Oxford English Dictionary's word of the year in 2017. | It was actually the Oxford English Dictionary's word of the year in 2017. |
The Conservatives lost their majority, Labour did better than expected and some people put it all down to our old friend, the youthquake. | The Conservatives lost their majority, Labour did better than expected and some people put it all down to our old friend, the youthquake. |
The theory was that young voters liked Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn. | The theory was that young voters liked Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn. |
That summer, he was even serenaded on the Pyramid Stage at Glastonbury to chants of "Oh, Jeremy Corbyn". | That summer, he was even serenaded on the Pyramid Stage at Glastonbury to chants of "Oh, Jeremy Corbyn". |
After the election, there was a figure flying around social media that 72% of 18-25 year olds turned out to vote. | After the election, there was a figure flying around social media that 72% of 18-25 year olds turned out to vote. |
Even MPs like Labour's David Lammy tweeted about it. | Even MPs like Labour's David Lammy tweeted about it. |
But nobody ever managed to back that up with actual facts. | But nobody ever managed to back that up with actual facts. |
A general election is a secret ballot, so there is no definitive way to find out how or if different age groups voted. | A general election is a secret ballot, so there is no definitive way to find out how or if different age groups voted. |
We can only rely on opinion polls, far from an exact science. | We can only rely on opinion polls, far from an exact science. |
The British Election Study is widely respected - and its data suggests that what happened in 2017 was not a quake of any kind. | The British Election Study is widely respected - and its data suggests that what happened in 2017 was not a quake of any kind. |
It says the turnout for youngest voters in 2017 was between 40% and 50% - about the same as the previous election in 2015. | It says the turnout for youngest voters in 2017 was between 40% and 50% - about the same as the previous election in 2015. |
Other polls disagree though. | Other polls disagree though. |
YouGov found that about 58% of people between the age of 18 and 24 voted, while Ipsos Mori estimated that it was 54%. | YouGov found that about 58% of people between the age of 18 and 24 voted, while Ipsos Mori estimated that it was 54%. |
The truth is, it is just not possible to say with absolute certainty if 2017 was a tremor or a quake. | The truth is, it is just not possible to say with absolute certainty if 2017 was a tremor or a quake. |
And the same will be true in December. | And the same will be true in December. |
Follow Newsbeat on Instagram, Facebook, Twitter and YouTube. | Follow Newsbeat on Instagram, Facebook, Twitter and YouTube. |
Listen to Newsbeat live at 12:45 and 17:45 weekdays - or listen back here. | Listen to Newsbeat live at 12:45 and 17:45 weekdays - or listen back here. |
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