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Wake up, Democrats Wake Up, Democrats
(about 4 hours later)
This article is part of David Leonhardt’s newsletter. You can sign up here to receive it each weekday.This article is part of David Leonhardt’s newsletter. You can sign up here to receive it each weekday.
Maybe this is the wake-up call that Democrats need.Maybe this is the wake-up call that Democrats need.
My old colleagues at The Upshot published a poll yesterday that rightly terrified a lot of Democrats (as well as Republicans and independents who believe President Trump is damaging the country). The poll showed Trump with a good chance to win re-election, given his standing in swing states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida.My old colleagues at The Upshot published a poll yesterday that rightly terrified a lot of Democrats (as well as Republicans and independents who believe President Trump is damaging the country). The poll showed Trump with a good chance to win re-election, given his standing in swing states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida.
This was the sentence, by Nate Cohn, that stood out to me: “Nearly two-thirds of the Trump voters who said they voted for Democratic congressional candidates in 2018 say that they’ll back the president” in hypothetical match-ups against Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren.This was the sentence, by Nate Cohn, that stood out to me: “Nearly two-thirds of the Trump voters who said they voted for Democratic congressional candidates in 2018 say that they’ll back the president” in hypothetical match-ups against Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren.
Democrats won in 2018 by running a smartly populist campaign, focused on reducing health care costs and helping ordinary families. The candidates avoided supporting progressive policy dreams that are obviously unpopular, like mandatory Medicare and border decriminalization.Democrats won in 2018 by running a smartly populist campaign, focused on reducing health care costs and helping ordinary families. The candidates avoided supporting progressive policy dreams that are obviously unpopular, like mandatory Medicare and border decriminalization.
The 2020 presidential candidates are making a grave mistake by ignoring the lessons of 2018. I’m not saying they should run to the mythical center and support widespread deregulation or corporate tax cuts (which are also unpopular). They can still support all kinds of ambitious progressive ideas — a wealth tax, universal Medicare buy-in and more — without running afoul of popular opinion. They can even decide that there are a couple of issues on which they are going to fly in the face of public opinion.The 2020 presidential candidates are making a grave mistake by ignoring the lessons of 2018. I’m not saying they should run to the mythical center and support widespread deregulation or corporate tax cuts (which are also unpopular). They can still support all kinds of ambitious progressive ideas — a wealth tax, universal Medicare buy-in and more — without running afoul of popular opinion. They can even decide that there are a couple of issues on which they are going to fly in the face of public opinion.
But if they’re going to do that, they also need to signal in other ways that they care about winning the votes of people who don’t consider themselves very liberal. Democrats, in short, need to start treating the 2020 campaign with the urgency it deserves, because a second Trump term would be terrible for the country.But if they’re going to do that, they also need to signal in other ways that they care about winning the votes of people who don’t consider themselves very liberal. Democrats, in short, need to start treating the 2020 campaign with the urgency it deserves, because a second Trump term would be terrible for the country.
[Listen to “The Argument” podcast every Thursday morning, with Ross Douthat, Michelle Goldberg and David Leonhardt.][Listen to “The Argument” podcast every Thursday morning, with Ross Douthat, Michelle Goldberg and David Leonhardt.]
What would more urgency look like? Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders would find some way to acknowledge and appeal to swing voters. Joe Biden and Kamala Harris would offer more of a vision than either has to date. Pete Buttigieg, arguably the best positioned to take advantage of this moment, would reassure Democrats who are understandably nervous about his lack of experience. And perhaps Cory Booker or Amy Klobuchar can finally appeal to more of Biden’s uninspired supporters.What would more urgency look like? Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders would find some way to acknowledge and appeal to swing voters. Joe Biden and Kamala Harris would offer more of a vision than either has to date. Pete Buttigieg, arguably the best positioned to take advantage of this moment, would reassure Democrats who are understandably nervous about his lack of experience. And perhaps Cory Booker or Amy Klobuchar can finally appeal to more of Biden’s uninspired supporters.
So far, the 2020 candidates have been divided into one of two categories: Some have been running an effective primary campaign, while others have recognized that the national electorate isn’t the same as the primary electorate. The Democrats need a candidate who falls into both categories.So far, the 2020 candidates have been divided into one of two categories: Some have been running an effective primary campaign, while others have recognized that the national electorate isn’t the same as the primary electorate. The Democrats need a candidate who falls into both categories.
For more …For more …
“A disproportionate share of the voters undecided about how they’ll vote on the generic ballot wind up selecting trump-trump-trump against the specific opponents,” Nate Cohn tweeted, offering some detail about the poll, which The Times conducted in partnership with Siena College.“A disproportionate share of the voters undecided about how they’ll vote on the generic ballot wind up selecting trump-trump-trump against the specific opponents,” Nate Cohn tweeted, offering some detail about the poll, which The Times conducted in partnership with Siena College.
Jonathan Chait, New York magazine: “The poll contains substantial evidence that Trump’s party lost the midterms for the hoary yet true reason that Republicans took unpopular positions, especially on health care, and ceded the center. Rather than learn the lesson, Democrats instead appear intent on ceding it right back to them.”Jonathan Chait, New York magazine: “The poll contains substantial evidence that Trump’s party lost the midterms for the hoary yet true reason that Republicans took unpopular positions, especially on health care, and ceded the center. Rather than learn the lesson, Democrats instead appear intent on ceding it right back to them.”
“The last several months have featured a variety of news stories that have almost surely been damaging to Trump’s reelection effort,” Alexandra DeSanctis writes in National Review. “But as the NYT/Siena poll reminds us, approval ratings don’t tell the full story when it comes to electing, or reelecting, a president — the Electoral College must be considered. … So Trump has cause for more optimism than you’d think.”“The last several months have featured a variety of news stories that have almost surely been damaging to Trump’s reelection effort,” Alexandra DeSanctis writes in National Review. “But as the NYT/Siena poll reminds us, approval ratings don’t tell the full story when it comes to electing, or reelecting, a president — the Electoral College must be considered. … So Trump has cause for more optimism than you’d think.”
One crucial problem for Democrats is their struggle to appeal to white voters who didn't graduate from college. In 2018, they won back a small but crucial share of these voters — much as Barack Obama had in 2008 and 2012, as William Frey of the Brookings Institution has written. A second problem is that several of the 2020 Democrats aren’t inspiring enormous support from nonwhite voters. Sanders and Warren win nonwhite voters by a large margin versus Trump, but not by the margins — especially in Warren’s case, The Times’s Astead Herndon notes — that Obama or even Hillary Clinton did.One crucial problem for Democrats is their struggle to appeal to white voters who didn't graduate from college. In 2018, they won back a small but crucial share of these voters — much as Barack Obama had in 2008 and 2012, as William Frey of the Brookings Institution has written. A second problem is that several of the 2020 Democrats aren’t inspiring enormous support from nonwhite voters. Sanders and Warren win nonwhite voters by a large margin versus Trump, but not by the margins — especially in Warren’s case, The Times’s Astead Herndon notes — that Obama or even Hillary Clinton did.
A Washington Post/ABC poll — national, rather than state-based — is out this morning, and it makes Trump look weaker than The Times poll did. I’ll be interested to hear what experts have to say about the difference between the two polls and will let you know if there is more to say later this week.A Washington Post/ABC poll — national, rather than state-based — is out this morning, and it makes Trump look weaker than The Times poll did. I’ll be interested to hear what experts have to say about the difference between the two polls and will let you know if there is more to say later this week.
I went into more detail on the Democrats’ successful 2018 campaign here and here and talked about more their unpopular 2020 positions here and here.I went into more detail on the Democrats’ successful 2018 campaign here and here and talked about more their unpopular 2020 positions here and here.
If you are not a subscriber to this newsletter, you can subscribe here. You can also join me on Twitter (@DLeonhardt) and Facebook.If you are not a subscriber to this newsletter, you can subscribe here. You can also join me on Twitter (@DLeonhardt) and Facebook.
Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram.