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| UK growth 'slowest in almost a decade' | UK growth 'slowest in almost a decade' |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| Growth in the UK economy has slowed to its lowest rate in almost a decade, the Office for National Statistics said. | Growth in the UK economy has slowed to its lowest rate in almost a decade, the Office for National Statistics said. |
| Year-on-year GDP growth slowed to 1% in the three months to the end of September - the lowest since the first three months of 2010. | Year-on-year GDP growth slowed to 1% in the three months to the end of September - the lowest since the first three months of 2010. |
| Even so, the economy has avoided recession after expanding 0.3% in the three months to the end of September. | Even so, the economy has avoided recession after expanding 0.3% in the three months to the end of September. |
| The economy had shrunk in the second quarter and two quarters of contraction would have signalled a recession. | The economy had shrunk in the second quarter and two quarters of contraction would have signalled a recession. |
| In the three months to the end of September, though, the economy did not grow as fast as the 0.4% forecast by economists, including at the Bank of England. | In the three months to the end of September, though, the economy did not grow as fast as the 0.4% forecast by economists, including at the Bank of England. |
| A statistician at the ONS said: "GDP grew steadily in the third quarter, mainly thanks to a strong July. | A statistician at the ONS said: "GDP grew steadily in the third quarter, mainly thanks to a strong July. |
| "Services again led the way, with construction also performing well. Manufacturing failed to grow, as falls in many industries were offset by car production bouncing back following April shutdowns. | "Services again led the way, with construction also performing well. Manufacturing failed to grow, as falls in many industries were offset by car production bouncing back following April shutdowns. |
| "Looking at the picture over the last year, growth slowed to its lowest rate in almost a decade. | "Looking at the picture over the last year, growth slowed to its lowest rate in almost a decade. |
| "The underlying trade deficit narrowed, mainly due to growing exports of both goods and services." | "The underlying trade deficit narrowed, mainly due to growing exports of both goods and services." |
| In the month of September, GDP fell by 0.1%, as had been expected. | |
| But the ONS revised down the contraction in August to 0.2% from 0.1%. | |
| It was the growth of 0.3% in July that drove the economy in the whole of the third quarter. | |
| John Hawksworth, chief economist at PwC, said: "The fact that growth was positive in the third quarter was largely due to a strong July. | |
| Output then fell back in August and September, which points to a lack of momentum in the economy going into the fourth quarter." | |
| There was no evidence of stockpiling ahead of the Brexit deadline, on 31 October, economists said. | |
| Samuel Tombs, economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said he had expected a boost to GDP growth from preparations ahead of the now-abandoned Brexit deadline. | |
| "It possible that stockpiling occurred to a greater extent at the start of the fourth quarter," he said. | |
| Ruth Gregory, senior UK economist at Capital Economics, said that while the economy avoided a recession in the third quarter, the economy was "pretty soft". | |
| "The GDP figures suggest that the economy failed to regain much momentum after the the second-quarter contraction. | |
| "While the election is just under five weeks away, clearly this isn't the good news the government might have hoped for." | |
| As much as it would be a relief that a formal recession has been avoided, the picture is very sluggish, in keeping with what has been called a "slow puncture" economy. | As much as it would be a relief that a formal recession has been avoided, the picture is very sluggish, in keeping with what has been called a "slow puncture" economy. |
| Growth of 0.3% between July and September is clearly preferable to another quarter of contraction, but still slow by normal historical standards. | Growth of 0.3% between July and September is clearly preferable to another quarter of contraction, but still slow by normal historical standards. |
| Indeed, comparing the third quarter this year with the same period last year, growth of just 1% is the slowest since the aftermath of the financial crisis. It is the weakest two quarters since the financial crisis. | Indeed, comparing the third quarter this year with the same period last year, growth of just 1% is the slowest since the aftermath of the financial crisis. It is the weakest two quarters since the financial crisis. |
| The background is a slower European and world economy reeling from trade wars. | The background is a slower European and world economy reeling from trade wars. |
| But years of damaged business investment, after the Brexit referendum, are taking their toll on growth. | But years of damaged business investment, after the Brexit referendum, are taking their toll on growth. |
| The latest figures in the month of September showed a contraction of 0.1%. Data has been volatile this year, with car industry shutdowns and two bouts of ultimately unneeded no-deal Brexit stockpiling. | The latest figures in the month of September showed a contraction of 0.1%. Data has been volatile this year, with car industry shutdowns and two bouts of ultimately unneeded no-deal Brexit stockpiling. |
| So recession avoided, but this is not the "bounce back" promised by some. | So recession avoided, but this is not the "bounce back" promised by some. |