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Scottish government used 'unreliable' employment data Scottish government used 'unreliable' employment data
(7 days later)
The Scottish government used unreliable data to report positive employment figures, the UK's statistics watchdog has ruled.The Scottish government used unreliable data to report positive employment figures, the UK's statistics watchdog has ruled.
A claim that youth unemployment had fallen by 0.3 percentage points was posted on social media.A claim that youth unemployment had fallen by 0.3 percentage points was posted on social media.
But economists pointed out the sample of data used to show the change was too small to be meaningful.But economists pointed out the sample of data used to show the change was too small to be meaningful.
The Scottish government said it had been using the official figures for its jobs claim for more than a decade.The Scottish government said it had been using the official figures for its jobs claim for more than a decade.
Concerns over the issue were raised with the UK Statistics Authority (UKSA) and it has now ruled that the figures used by the Scottish government, which relied on the Labour Force Survey (LFS), were not the most reliable available.Concerns over the issue were raised with the UK Statistics Authority (UKSA) and it has now ruled that the figures used by the Scottish government, which relied on the Labour Force Survey (LFS), were not the most reliable available.
Stuart McIntyre, of the Fraser of Allander economic institute, said more reliable data from the Annual Population Survey (APS) showed youth unemployment had increased by 0.8 points between July and September. Stuart McIntyre, of the Fraser of Allander economic institute, said more reliable data from the Annual Population Survey (APS) showed youth unemployment had increased by 0.8 points between July 2018 and June 2019.
However, the Scottish government said it used both sources when analysing youth unemployment.However, the Scottish government said it used both sources when analysing youth unemployment.
The UKSA stated: "Data from the LFS at this level of detail are not considered reliable, and are not classed as national statistics.The UKSA stated: "Data from the LFS at this level of detail are not considered reliable, and are not classed as national statistics.
"The APS is the more reliable data source for estimates of youth unemployment, due to its larger sample size, particularly when considering a breakdown by age and country within the UK."The APS is the more reliable data source for estimates of youth unemployment, due to its larger sample size, particularly when considering a breakdown by age and country within the UK.
"It would be helpful to make this clear both in the summary published by the Scottish government and any related use of the estimates, including on social media.""It would be helpful to make this clear both in the summary published by the Scottish government and any related use of the estimates, including on social media."
The UKSA said it welcomed a commitment by Scottish ministers to work with the Office for National Statistics (ONS) "to improve the presentation of youth unemployment rates in Scotland".The UKSA said it welcomed a commitment by Scottish ministers to work with the Office for National Statistics (ONS) "to improve the presentation of youth unemployment rates in Scotland".
'More timely''More timely'
A Scottish government spokesman said: "We use both the LFS and APS when analysing youth unemployment.A Scottish government spokesman said: "We use both the LFS and APS when analysing youth unemployment.
"The Scottish government has used both these official sources for monitoring labour market outcome for this important group for more than 10 years."The Scottish government has used both these official sources for monitoring labour market outcome for this important group for more than 10 years.
"Having an up to date picture of Scotland's labour market set in the context of other parts of the UK is important. The LFS estimates are more timely than those in the APS, as they allow for up-to-date comparisons between Scotland and the UK which is important for monitoring our youth labour market.""Having an up to date picture of Scotland's labour market set in the context of other parts of the UK is important. The LFS estimates are more timely than those in the APS, as they allow for up-to-date comparisons between Scotland and the UK which is important for monitoring our youth labour market."