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| Version 3 | Version 4 |
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| Gloomy prediction for UK economy | Gloomy prediction for UK economy |
| (9 minutes later) | |
| A stark picture of the prospects for the UK economy has been painted by an independent group of economists. | A stark picture of the prospects for the UK economy has been painted by an independent group of economists. |
| The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) predicts the economy will shrink by 2.9% in 2009 - more than at any time since the 1940s. | The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) predicts the economy will shrink by 2.9% in 2009 - more than at any time since the 1940s. |
| It expects consumer spending to decline and investment in business to slump. | It expects consumer spending to decline and investment in business to slump. |
| The forecasters say exporters will be helped by the slump in the pound's value, but even their prospects will be held back by a global slowdown. | The forecasters say exporters will be helped by the slump in the pound's value, but even their prospects will be held back by a global slowdown. |
| Painful readjustment | Painful readjustment |
| The CEBR's research suggests the economy will contract by its largest amount since 1946, when the country was in the grips of mass de-mobilisation after the war. | The CEBR's research suggests the economy will contract by its largest amount since 1946, when the country was in the grips of mass de-mobilisation after the war. |
| The forecasters say the economy is undergoing a painful readjustment, as consumers cut spending because of rising unemployment. | The forecasters say the economy is undergoing a painful readjustment, as consumers cut spending because of rising unemployment. |
| But the big threat, they say, is a predicted collapse in business investment of 15% because firms will struggle to get finance. | But the big threat, they say, is a predicted collapse in business investment of 15% because firms will struggle to get finance. |
| Several analysts have made predictions of a 2.5% fall in GDP next year. | Several analysts have made predictions of a 2.5% fall in GDP next year. |
| Martin Weale, director of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research told the BBC's World at One programme: "If the economy is to recover and put on a sustainable footing that does mean we have to be much more export-orientated." | Martin Weale, director of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research told the BBC's World at One programme: "If the economy is to recover and put on a sustainable footing that does mean we have to be much more export-orientated." |
| He said there would have to be less focus on the "illusion of wealth" created by rising house prices, on consumer spending as a way of driving the economy and on the financial sector as a source of wealth. I hope there will be a change in attitudes and we start to look at what really makes us happy Simon Woodroffe Post Christmas sales start soon | He said there would have to be less focus on the "illusion of wealth" created by rising house prices, on consumer spending as a way of driving the economy and on the financial sector as a source of wealth. I hope there will be a change in attitudes and we start to look at what really makes us happy Simon Woodroffe Post Christmas sales start soon |
| He said: "There are a range of different predictions for the likely contraction of the economy next year. | He said: "There are a range of different predictions for the likely contraction of the economy next year. |
| "They range from the under 1% figure in the November budget to some much larger numbers that would put us on a par with Germany's experience in the Great Depression. | "They range from the under 1% figure in the November budget to some much larger numbers that would put us on a par with Germany's experience in the Great Depression. |
| "So if we have a German-type experience there will be millions of jobs lost. If things turn out as the government hopes, it's likely unemployment will stay under three million." | "So if we have a German-type experience there will be millions of jobs lost. If things turn out as the government hopes, it's likely unemployment will stay under three million." |
| He said he believed the government realised that it would get far less tax revenue from its usual sources and therefore would have less money to spend. | He said he believed the government realised that it would get far less tax revenue from its usual sources and therefore would have less money to spend. |
| "The November budget figures recognises this but what they don't know - none of us know - is quite how big the impact is going to be," he said. | "The November budget figures recognises this but what they don't know - none of us know - is quite how big the impact is going to be," he said. |
| Attitude changes | Attitude changes |
| Simon Woodroffe, the entrepreneur who founded the Yo Sushi chain, told the BBC: "There will be major disasters on the High Streets right throughout the year. | |
| "This recession will put lots of people out of business. | "This recession will put lots of people out of business. |
| "I think what will happen is that it will take a lot longer to recover and blow a lot deeper. I hope there will be a change in attitudes and we start to look at what really makes us happy." | "I think what will happen is that it will take a lot longer to recover and blow a lot deeper. I hope there will be a change in attitudes and we start to look at what really makes us happy." |
| CEBR managing economist Ben Read told the Daily Telegraph things could be even worse. | CEBR managing economist Ben Read told the Daily Telegraph things could be even worse. |
| He said the main concern of many larger banks was to "shore up their balance sheets" and pay back any debts to the Treasury. | He said the main concern of many larger banks was to "shore up their balance sheets" and pay back any debts to the Treasury. |
| Earlier this week official figures confirmed the UK economy is sliding towards recession faster than was first thought. | Earlier this week official figures confirmed the UK economy is sliding towards recession faster than was first thought. |
| Revised data showed a 0.6% decrease in output between July and September - the worst since 1990 and bigger than the 0.5% fall first estimated by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). | Revised data showed a 0.6% decrease in output between July and September - the worst since 1990 and bigger than the 0.5% fall first estimated by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). |
| Chancellor Alistair Darling has said the UK will return to growth in the second half of 2009. | Chancellor Alistair Darling has said the UK will return to growth in the second half of 2009. |
| He predicts stimulus moves funded by extra borrowing - such as the VAT cut - will see a "shorter and shallower" slowdown than feared. | He predicts stimulus moves funded by extra borrowing - such as the VAT cut - will see a "shorter and shallower" slowdown than feared. |