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| Version 2 | Version 3 |
|---|---|
| Fact-Checking the November Democratic Debate | Fact-Checking the November Democratic Debate |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| Ten candidates vying for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination took the debate stage Wednesday night in Atlanta for the fifth round of debates. | Ten candidates vying for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination took the debate stage Wednesday night in Atlanta for the fifth round of debates. |
| Here is how the candidates’ remarks stacked up against the truth. | Here is how the candidates’ remarks stacked up against the truth. |
| WHAT THE FACTS ARE | |
| What Was Said: | |
| Ms. Gabbard: “I think the most recent example of your inexperience in national security and foreign policy came from your recent careless statement about how you as president would be willing to send our troops to Mexico to fight the cartels.” | |
| Mr. Buttigieg: “I was talking about U.S.-Mexico cooperation.” | |
| Mr. Buttigieg was right. At a Democratic forum this week in Los Angeles, Mr. Buttigieg was asked about President Trump’s recent suggestions that the United States help Mexico wage “war” on the cartels and whether he envisioned a situation in which American troops would be stationed in Mexico “if Mexico welcomed it.” | |
| In his response, Mr. Buttigieg emphasized that Mr. Trump’s approach violated Mexican sovereignty and the need for Mexican cooperation and approval in any military response. | |
| “There is a scenario where we could have security cooperation as we do with countries around the world,” Mr. Buttigieg said. “Now, I would only order American troops into conflict if there were no other choice, if American lives were on the line and if this was necessary to meet treaty obligations. But we could absolutely be in some kind of partnership role, if and only if it welcomed by our partner south of the border.” | |
| What they’re talking about | What they’re talking about |
| What Ms. Warren said: | What Ms. Warren said: |
| “We can put $800 billion new federal dollars into all of our public schools. We can make college tuition-free for every kid. We can put $50 billion into historically black colleges and universities. And we can cancel student loan debt for 95 percent of the folks who have got it.” | |
| The revenue that Ms. Warren would raise from her tax proposal is a subject of intense debate and it is not clear that her wealth tax could pay for the plans she listed. According to a New York Times analysis, the total cost of Ms. Warren’s plans for universal child care, increased spending on public schools, student debt cancellation and free college would be about $2.9 trillion over a decade. The two Berkeley economists advising her campaign, Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman, estimate that her wealth tax would generate $2.75 trillion over that period of time. If that is correct, then Ms. Warren would be close to being able to pay for those proposals. (Ms. Warren has recently revised her wealth tax proposal, and Mr. Saez and Mr. Zucman have refined their calculations but the general conclusions are the same.) | |
| But other economists disagree, arguing that a wealth tax would spur waves of new loopholes and tax evasion efforts. Lawrence H. Summers, a Treasury secretary under President Bill Clinton, and Natasha Sarin, a law and finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania, estimated that Ms. Warren’s wealth tax would raise just 40 percent of what her campaign claims. | But other economists disagree, arguing that a wealth tax would spur waves of new loopholes and tax evasion efforts. Lawrence H. Summers, a Treasury secretary under President Bill Clinton, and Natasha Sarin, a law and finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania, estimated that Ms. Warren’s wealth tax would raise just 40 percent of what her campaign claims. |
| If Ms. Warren’s tax proposals raise less revenue than she projects, it will be difficult to pay for her grand plans without adding to the deficit. | If Ms. Warren’s tax proposals raise less revenue than she projects, it will be difficult to pay for her grand plans without adding to the deficit. |
| What the Facts are | What the Facts are |
| What Mr. Biden said: | What Mr. Biden said: |
| “The fact is that right now the vast majority of Democrats do not support ‘Medicare for all.’ It couldn’t pass the United States Senate right now with Democrats. It couldn’t pass the House.” | “The fact is that right now the vast majority of Democrats do not support ‘Medicare for all.’ It couldn’t pass the United States Senate right now with Democrats. It couldn’t pass the House.” |
| This is exaggerated. Depending on how you measure, a majority of Democratic voters do support Medicare for all. Support among Democrats in Congress is weaker than that, but it is hard to find any measure that shows a vast majority who oppose the policy. | This is exaggerated. Depending on how you measure, a majority of Democratic voters do support Medicare for all. Support among Democrats in Congress is weaker than that, but it is hard to find any measure that shows a vast majority who oppose the policy. |
| Public polling shows that a majority of Americans favor Medicare for all when they are asked about it. A Kaiser Family Foundation survey published Wednesday found that 53 percent of adults approve of the idea — including more than 75 percent of Democrats. | Public polling shows that a majority of Americans favor Medicare for all when they are asked about it. A Kaiser Family Foundation survey published Wednesday found that 53 percent of adults approve of the idea — including more than 75 percent of Democrats. |
| Among elected officials, support is softer. Mr. Biden is correct that a Medicare for all bill would be unlikely to pass in the current House, despite Democratic control. A Medicare for all bill sponsored by Representative Pramila Jayapal of Washington has more than 116 sponsors out of 233 Democrats currently serving in the House, almost half the party but far short of the votes necessary to pass the legislation. In the Senate, support is a bit weaker: 15 of 45 senators who caucus with the party support Senator Bernie Sanders’s Medicare for all bill. | |
| What the facts are | What the facts are |
| What Mr. Yang said: | What Mr. Yang said: |
| “There are only two countries in the world that don’t have paid family leave for new moms. The United States of America and Papua New Guinea. That is the entire list, and we need to get off this list as soon as possible.” | “There are only two countries in the world that don’t have paid family leave for new moms. The United States of America and Papua New Guinea. That is the entire list, and we need to get off this list as soon as possible.” |
| Mostly true. Mr. Yang likely got this line from a report of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, which has examined parental leave policies in 120 countries. Of that group, the United States and Papua New Guinea are the only countries without paid leave policies. But worldwide, there are a few other small countries on the list, including Tonga and Suriname, according to the World Policy Center, which tracks leave policies in more nations. | Mostly true. Mr. Yang likely got this line from a report of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, which has examined parental leave policies in 120 countries. Of that group, the United States and Papua New Guinea are the only countries without paid leave policies. But worldwide, there are a few other small countries on the list, including Tonga and Suriname, according to the World Policy Center, which tracks leave policies in more nations. |
| If the details aren’t quite right, Mr. Yang’s larger point stands. The United States is unique among large advanced nations in not requiring any paid leave to new mothers. | If the details aren’t quite right, Mr. Yang’s larger point stands. The United States is unique among large advanced nations in not requiring any paid leave to new mothers. |
| What the facts are | What the facts are |
| What Mr. Buttigieg Said: | What Mr. Buttigieg Said: |
| “The president had to confess in writing, in court, to illegally diverting charitable contributions that were supposed to go to veterans.” | “The president had to confess in writing, in court, to illegally diverting charitable contributions that were supposed to go to veterans.” |
| This is misleading. In early November, Mr. Trump was ordered by a New York State judge to pay $2 million in damages to nonprofit groups after he was found to have violated a law by using the now-defunct Donald J. Trump Foundation as an extension of his campaign. Mr. Buttigieg’s suggestion that the funds did not reach veterans groups, however, is wrong. | |
| The foundation raised $2.8 million for veterans’ groups during an event in Iowa in January 2016, but allowed the Trump campaign to disburse those funds. Mr. Trump admitted that this was a campaign event, though the foundation, as a charity, was prohibited from supporting candidates for political office. | |
| Justice Saliann Scarpulla, of the State Supreme Court in Manhattan, noted in the ruling that “the funds did ultimately reach their intended destinations, i.e., charitable organizations supporting veterans” but that the foundation’s officers, including Mr. Trump, breached their fiduciary responsibilities to the charity. | |
| WHAT THE FACTS ARE | |
| WHAT MS. KLOBUCHAR SAID: | |
| “Over 70 percent of the people support Roe v. Wade. Over 90 percent of the people support funding for Planned Parenthood and making sure that women can get the health care they need.” | |
| This is exaggerated. When asked in surveys, a majority of Americans say they support some abortion rights. And many Americans support continuing funding for Planned Parenthood, the national network of women’s health providers that includes many abortion clinics. | |
| But Ms. Klobuchar’s numbers are a bit higher than those in most polls that ask such questions. A Kaiser Family Foundation survey in May asked about a Trump administration policy that prevents Planned Parenthood from receiving funding for family planning services. In that survey, 69 percent of adults said that they support continued funding for Planned Parenthood, not 90 percent. | |
| In that same survey, 65 percent said they would oppose a Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade, the Supreme Court decision that establishes a constitutional right to abortion. It is possible to find a survey in line with Ms. Klobuchar’s number, but with some caveats. A survey in June from NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll found more than 70 percent of respondents in support of Roe, but that group included people who said they want to “keep Roe v. Wade but add more restrictions.” | |
| Fact checks provided by Alan Rappeport, Linda Qiu and Margot Sanger-Katz. | Fact checks provided by Alan Rappeport, Linda Qiu and Margot Sanger-Katz. |