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What’s Next for Netanyahu? What’s Next for Netanyahu, and Israel?
(about 5 hours later)
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel was charged on Thursday with bribery and breach of trust in a series of corruption cases that threaten his political future and present the country with an unprecedented legal fight. The corruption charges brought against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel on Thursday not only threaten his political future, they also present the country with an unprecedented legal quandary.
Mr. Netanyahu, now the country’s longest serving prime minister, also holds the dubious record of being its first to be indicted while in office. He has denied the allegations against him. Mr. Netanyahu, the country’s longest serving prime minister, also holds the dubious distinction of being the first to be indicted while in office. He has denied the allegations against him.
Israel had already been struggling to choose a new leader who could form a new government after two inconclusive elections this year. Mr. Netanyahu’s indictment adds further uncertainty to that chaotic problem. Israel was already struggling to choose a leader who could form a new government after two inconclusive elections this year. Mr. Netanyahu’s indictment adds further uncertainty to a chaotic political landscape.
Here are some possibilities of what could happen: Here are some ways it could play out:
Under current Israeli law, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu can remain under indictment and even stand trial while in office. Lawmakers can vote to oust him only if he’s convicted in a final verdict, once the appeals process has been exhausted. That could take years. Israel does not have a constitution. Its primary governing principles are enshrined in what are known as the Basic Laws, one of which addresses a prime minister facing trial.
Watchdog groups and critics of the prime minister have been preparing to petition Israel’s Supreme Court to challenge Mr. Netanyahu’s continued tenure under indictment. That means challenging clauses in Israel’s basic law on government, which has a constitutional status. Under that law, Mr. Netanyahu can remain under indictment and even stand trial while in office. Lawmakers could vote to oust him only after all appeals are exhausted, a process that could take years.
In two cases in the 1990s, the Supreme Court ruled that an ordinary minister and a deputy minister must be fired immediately upon being charged. But ministers can easily be replaced. If a prime minister resigns, the entire government automatically falls, adding to the significance of any decision by the court. But watchdog bodies are planning nonetheless to challenge Mr. Netanyahu’s continued tenure in court.
Like any lawmaker, Mr. Netanyahu could ask for parliamentary immunity from prosecution. That can be granted by a house committee and then by a vote in Parliament. The provision dealing with a prime minister facing trial has never been interpreted by the Supreme Court so there is no precedent, argued Suzie Navot, a professor of constitutional law at the Striks School of Law near Tel Aviv.
After two inconclusive elections and months of political paralysis in Israel, the house committee is currently not functioning — and may not resume work for months, until another election is held and a government formed. This may delay the entire judicial process. “Without interpretation it’s meaningless,” she said.
Rebel members of Mr. Netanyahu’s conservative Likud party could demand a primary to try to elect a new leader. If Mr. Netanyahu, who has denied all wrongdoing, survives as party leader, he could still run in a national ballot for another term. Ms. Navot noted, for example, that the Basic Law does not differentiate between a prime minister charged with a lesser crime like failing to pay taxes, or a major one like accepting bribes. Bribery, the most serious of the charges against Mr. Netanyahu, carries a maximum prison term of 10 years.
If he were to lose a primary in the party, he would no longer be its candidate for another term as prime minister. In two cases in the 1990s, the Supreme Court ruled that an ordinary government minister or deputy minister must be fired immediately upon being charged. But these ministers can easily be replaced. If a prime minister resigns, the entire government falls, adding to the significance of any decision by the court.
If Israel were to hold another election and Mr. Netanyahu were to win despite the charges, Reuven Rivlin, the president, would then have to decide if it were appropriate to task him — as a lawmaker seeking another term as prime minister, but not yet a prime minister — with forming a government. Those earlier rulings stemmed from petitions filed by the Movement for Quality Government in Israel, a nongovernmental group. The group argues that the same standard should apply to a prime minister and is preparing to go back to court.
“A prime minister under indictment is unfit to serve,” said Tomer Naor, the group’s chief legal officer. “For a prime minister, but not a health minister, to be able to continue in office is completely absurd.”
But such a finding by the court would be likely to draw fire. Right-wing politicians are already seeking to curb the Supreme Court’s powers, so a ruling that ousts Mr. Netanyahu would be viewed by some as overreaching.
Ayelet Shaked, a right-wing legislator and former justice minister, recently warned the Supreme Court justices against involvement in the political process, describing any attempt to do so as “tantamount to a coup.”
Gad Barzilai, a professor of law at the University of Haifa, said it was “doubtful” that the court had the authority to force a quick resignation.
Like any lawmaker, Mr. Netanyahu could ask for parliamentary immunity from prosecution, but whether he has a practical path to securing it soon is unclear.
Immunity can be granted by a parliamentary committee and then a vote by the full Parliament. Ordinarily, a lawmaker would have 30 days after being charged to put in a request.
But after two inconclusive elections and months of political paralysis in Israel, the committee is not functioning — and may not resume work for months, until another election is held and a government is formed.
Rebel members of Mr. Netanyahu’s conservative Likud party could demand a primary election to choose a new leader. If Mr. Netanyahu, who has denied all wrongdoing, survives as party leader, he could still run in a national ballot for another term.
If he were to lose a primary election, he would no longer be Likud’s candidate for another term as prime minister.
Since neither Mr. Netanyahu nor his main challenger, Benny Gantz, was able to form a government after the last election, the task has been given to Parliament, which has three weeks to try to choose a prime minister who has the backing of a majority of its members. If Parliament fails, Israel will hold another election.
If Mr. Netanyahu wins that election, despite the charges, President Reuven Rivlin would have to decide if it were appropriate to task him with forming a government.
In many respects, the law is not clear.
Mordechai Kremnitzer, a former dean of law at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and a senior fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute, a nonpartisan research center, said a large segment of the public believes that a prime minister continuing to serve while charged with serious crimes is “an intolerable combination.”
“Everyone feels there is something askew here,” Mr. Kremnitzer said, adding that a prime minister cannot “go to court from 9 a.m. till 4 p.m. and from 4 p.m. run the country.”