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| New Zealand volcano: Can we predict eruptions? | New Zealand volcano: Can we predict eruptions? |
| (about 11 hours later) | |
| Following the eruption of New Zealand's most active volcano, questions are being asked about why tourists were allowed to visit it. | Following the eruption of New Zealand's most active volcano, questions are being asked about why tourists were allowed to visit it. |
| "These questions must be asked and they must be answered," New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said in parliament after the eruption. | "These questions must be asked and they must be answered," New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said in parliament after the eruption. |
| There were warning signs in the weeks prior to the eruption and last month the alert level was raised to two indicating moderate to heightened volcanic unrest. | |
| However, the imminent and dramatic nature of the eruption took people by surprise. | However, the imminent and dramatic nature of the eruption took people by surprise. |
| So how good are we at predicting when a volcano will erupt and how severe it will be? | So how good are we at predicting when a volcano will erupt and how severe it will be? |
| A volcanic eruption is when steam or lava is released from a volcanic vent. | A volcanic eruption is when steam or lava is released from a volcanic vent. |
| It can be notoriously difficult - with devastating consequences - to know when an explosion might happen, especially when a volcano has been dormant for many years. | It can be notoriously difficult - with devastating consequences - to know when an explosion might happen, especially when a volcano has been dormant for many years. |
| However, scientists can look for particular signs and trends to make predictions. | However, scientists can look for particular signs and trends to make predictions. |
| They monitor the activity of volcanoes by looking at: | They monitor the activity of volcanoes by looking at: |
| If scientists start to see an acceleration of gas from volcanic vents or nearby tremors, for instance, they may start to get concerned about an eruption. | If scientists start to see an acceleration of gas from volcanic vents or nearby tremors, for instance, they may start to get concerned about an eruption. |
| However, predicting whether those signs indicate an eruption will be in one hour, a month or even longer away depends on the individual volcano. | However, predicting whether those signs indicate an eruption will be in one hour, a month or even longer away depends on the individual volcano. |
| The more data volcanologists have on a specific volcano, the better they'll be able to anticipate its behaviour and the possibility of an eruption. | The more data volcanologists have on a specific volcano, the better they'll be able to anticipate its behaviour and the possibility of an eruption. |
| Most volcanoes tend to show these signs in the weeks or months prior to an eruption but some explosions are much more sudden and unexpected. | Most volcanoes tend to show these signs in the weeks or months prior to an eruption but some explosions are much more sudden and unexpected. |
| It's also more difficult to judge eruptions when volcanoes have been dormant for a while or were active prior to the introduction of modern monitoring technology. | It's also more difficult to judge eruptions when volcanoes have been dormant for a while or were active prior to the introduction of modern monitoring technology. |
| In 1991, an estimated 5,000 lives were saved through an evacuation of the area surrounding Mount Pinatubo, in the Philippines. | In 1991, an estimated 5,000 lives were saved through an evacuation of the area surrounding Mount Pinatubo, in the Philippines. |
| On that occasion, advance warnings of an eruption were made by the US Geological Survey and Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology. | On that occasion, advance warnings of an eruption were made by the US Geological Survey and Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology. |
| They monitored the increasing activity from about 10 weeks prior following a series of smaller explosions and alerted the authorities to the need for a major evacuation effort. | They monitored the increasing activity from about 10 weeks prior following a series of smaller explosions and alerted the authorities to the need for a major evacuation effort. |
| It was one of the largest eruptions of the last century. | It was one of the largest eruptions of the last century. |
| However in other instances, such as the eruption of Mount Ontake in Japan in 2014, there was no alarm raised because of how sudden it was. | However in other instances, such as the eruption of Mount Ontake in Japan in 2014, there was no alarm raised because of how sudden it was. |
| There have also been times when people have been removed from an area unnecessarily - when an eruption didn't actually happen when it was expected to. | There have also been times when people have been removed from an area unnecessarily - when an eruption didn't actually happen when it was expected to. |
| But the effectiveness of national volcano-monitoring agencies can vary depending on the level of resources and expertise. | But the effectiveness of national volcano-monitoring agencies can vary depending on the level of resources and expertise. |
| And New Zealand is one of the world leaders in this field and assists developing countries such as Pacific island Vanuatu in predicting eruptions. | And New Zealand is one of the world leaders in this field and assists developing countries such as Pacific island Vanuatu in predicting eruptions. |
| The technology it uses to monitor volcanic activity includes GPS (global positioning system) receivers, high-tech sensors and drones, as well as dispatched teams on the ground. | The technology it uses to monitor volcanic activity includes GPS (global positioning system) receivers, high-tech sensors and drones, as well as dispatched teams on the ground. |
| Ben Kennedy, a volcanologist at Canterbury University in New Zealand, says they are "getting better all the time" at making predictions. | Ben Kennedy, a volcanologist at Canterbury University in New Zealand, says they are "getting better all the time" at making predictions. |
| "If you compare with earthquakes, we are much better at predicting volcanic eruptions than large tectonic earthquakes," he says. | "If you compare with earthquakes, we are much better at predicting volcanic eruptions than large tectonic earthquakes," he says. |
| And despite White Island (also known as Whakaari), the site of New Zealand's volcanic eruption this week, being private land, it is still monitored by the national agency. | And despite White Island (also known as Whakaari), the site of New Zealand's volcanic eruption this week, being private land, it is still monitored by the national agency. |
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