On impeachment, Democrats are damned if they do, damned if they don't
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Version 0 of 1. The idea that impeachment will hurt Trump in 2020 is based on the powerful myth of a ‘moderate Republican’ who doesn’t really exist The great irony of impeachment is that the two impeached US presidents (Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton) never suffered the ultimate consequence, and the president who did leave office, Richard Nixon, was never actually impeached. (He resigned before the House could impeach him.) Barring a political miracle, this is not about to change. This week, House Democrats announced that they were taking the impeachment process one step further. They have decided to focus on just two articles of impeachment - abuse of power and obstruction of Congress – and to have both the House and the Senate vote as soon as possible. Both decisions, closely linked, have proven controversial. They mainly reflect the preferences of the so-called “centrists”, most notably the House speaker, Nancy Pelosi. In contrast, some more left-leaning members wanted to wait longer in order to include an explicit link to the Mueller report and the issue of Russian interference into the 2016 presidential elections. All sides know that even if Trump is impeached by the House, the Senate will probably not remove him from office – the Senate vote would undoubtedly fall on partisan lines. Most Democratic congresspeople also agree that impeachment does not play well politically, because it distracts from their own issues and is not considered particularly salient by a lot of (potential) Democratic voters. So, did the Democrats make a mistake? I have long been skeptical of the Democratic party’s focus on impeachment. To me, the Russia obsession was mainly a distraction from the real problems of US democracy as well as the issues that (potential) Democratic voters care most about. It played to a narrow base of liberal Democrats, who might be loud on social media, but the issue will not win Democrats the elections. In many ways, the impeachment inquiry has a similar problem. But there are two crucial differences. First, the initiative for the Ukraine impeachment comes from an independent whistleblower, not from the Democratic party. Second, the evidence in the Ukraine case is clearcut and irrefutable, only deniable by the most partisan hacks, while the proof in the Russia case is mostly circumstantial and requires a partisan bias to be considered beyond reasonable doubt. In short, whereas the Russia impeachment would have been primarily about Trump, the Ukraine impeachment is first and foremost about US democracy. As the House judiciary chair, Jerry Nadler, phrased it, “A president who places himself above accountability, above the American people and above Congress’s power of impeachment … is a president who sees himself as above the law … We must be clear no one, not even the president, is above the law.” Even if Republicans put party over country, Democrats should not, which is why the impeachment process is the right decision. This is not to say that it will necessarily benefit the Democratic party. Sure, it will free up some space to push core Democratic issues and policies to the top of the political agenda, but it is doubtful they will get the space and time to really make a difference. Trump and the media have developed a mutually beneficial relationship that prioritizes scandals over substance and there is little reason to assume this will change substantially in the run-up to the 2020 elections. Moreover, I doubt it will hurt Trump’s campaign or chances at re-election. The idea that impeachment will hurt Trump in the 2020 elections is based on the powerful myth of the “moderate Republican”, who dislikes Trump’s radicalism but is afraid of “socialist” Democrats. Condemned on a daily basis on the opinion pages of the major liberal newspapers by anti-Trump conservative columnists, who have no electoral base and a mainly (coastal) liberal readership, this myth was at the heart of Hillary Clinton’s disastrous 2016 campaign and still informs the electoral strategy of Democratic “centrists” today. It is based on a 20th-century understanding of norms (and shame) that has been proven completely irrelevant to Trump, and the broader Republican party, in the past four years. If anything, Trump will use his impeachment as a badge of honor, showing to his hardcore supporters, worried about his increasing acceptance by big business and the GOP establishment, that he is still different and against the “corrupt” system. In the end, the Democrats are damned if they do and damned if they don’t. However, given Trump’s demonstrated abuse of power and obstruction of Congress, and the fact that the political consequences of impeachment are so far mainly speculation, they made the right choice. They have 2020 to convince a majority of the electoral college that putting party over country is still the American way. Cas Mudde is a Guardian US columnist and the Stanley Wade Shelton UGAF professor in the School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Georgia. His latest book is The Far Right Today |