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| Labour leadership: Blow to 'continuity Corbyn' as poll of members suggests Starmer clear favourite - live news | Labour leadership: Blow to 'continuity Corbyn' as poll of members suggests Starmer clear favourite - live news |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| Rolling coverage of the day’s political developments as they happen | Rolling coverage of the day’s political developments as they happen |
| The New Statesman’s Stephen Bush has written a good blog about the YouGov Labour leadership poll. He says that it feels “about right” as an account of opinion in the party at the moment, but that a lot could change. It is worth reading the article in full, but here’s an extract. | |
| The process to strip Northern rail of its franchise has begun after years of poor performance, Grant Shapps, the transport secretary, has said. My colleague Rajeev Syal has the full story here. | |
| The YouGov figures showing how votes might get redistributed in a Labour leadership contest (see 10.21am) are worth studying because they show that some assumptions about how people might use their second preference votes might be wrong. | The YouGov figures showing how votes might get redistributed in a Labour leadership contest (see 10.21am) are worth studying because they show that some assumptions about how people might use their second preference votes might be wrong. |
| For example, you might think that anyone backing Emily Thornberry would be inclined to opt for Sir Keir Starmer as their next choice because he’s another strongly pro-European north London senior lawyer who performs well in the Commons. But the YouGov figures suggest Rebecca Long Bailey would pick up almost as many Thornberry votes as Starmer in the first instance. | For example, you might think that anyone backing Emily Thornberry would be inclined to opt for Sir Keir Starmer as their next choice because he’s another strongly pro-European north London senior lawyer who performs well in the Commons. But the YouGov figures suggest Rebecca Long Bailey would pick up almost as many Thornberry votes as Starmer in the first instance. |
| The YouGov figures assume Lisa Nandy would drop out after the first round of voting, with her votes being distributed fairly evenly amongst the remaining candidates. Thornberry would drop out next, YouGov suggests, boosting Starmer by 3 points and Long Bailey by two points. Clive Lewis would fall out next under this scenario, with his support being split evenly between Starmer and Long Bailey. Yvette Cooper would be the next to be eliminated, YouGov suggests, with half of her votes going to Starmer, and the rest split between Jess Phillips and Long Bailey. And Phillips would be the last person to drop out, with her votes breaking 2 to 1 for Starmer. | The YouGov figures assume Lisa Nandy would drop out after the first round of voting, with her votes being distributed fairly evenly amongst the remaining candidates. Thornberry would drop out next, YouGov suggests, boosting Starmer by 3 points and Long Bailey by two points. Clive Lewis would fall out next under this scenario, with his support being split evenly between Starmer and Long Bailey. Yvette Cooper would be the next to be eliminated, YouGov suggests, with half of her votes going to Starmer, and the rest split between Jess Phillips and Long Bailey. And Phillips would be the last person to drop out, with her votes breaking 2 to 1 for Starmer. |
| The full YouGov Labour leadership polling figures are not available online yet, but here is the chart showing how votes would be re-allocated in the various rounds of the count. Labour uses the alternative vote system in leadership contests, meaning that people are able to rank candidates in order of preference. If no one gets 50% in the first round, the lowest performing candidate gets eliminated and their votes are redistributed. YouGov can model what might happen because it asked Labour members to rank seven candidates in order. | The full YouGov Labour leadership polling figures are not available online yet, but here is the chart showing how votes would be re-allocated in the various rounds of the count. Labour uses the alternative vote system in leadership contests, meaning that people are able to rank candidates in order of preference. If no one gets 50% in the first round, the lowest performing candidate gets eliminated and their votes are redistributed. YouGov can model what might happen because it asked Labour members to rank seven candidates in order. |
| Good morning and Happy New Year to everyone. | Good morning and Happy New Year to everyone. |
| It certainly is for supporters of Sir Keir Starmer as next Labour leader. Over the last three weeks he and Rebecca Long Bailey have been seen as more or less joint favourites for the post - but for different reasons. Starmer has been seen as a likely winner because he is highly regarded by the public at large and if ‘looking like a credible PM’ were the sole criterion for the job, he would probably easily beat the other candidates. But Long Bailey was seen as a likely winner because she was highly regarded by the Corbynites at the top of the party, and it was assumed that if they wanted her in the top job, the pro-Corbyn membership would duly vote for her too. | It certainly is for supporters of Sir Keir Starmer as next Labour leader. Over the last three weeks he and Rebecca Long Bailey have been seen as more or less joint favourites for the post - but for different reasons. Starmer has been seen as a likely winner because he is highly regarded by the public at large and if ‘looking like a credible PM’ were the sole criterion for the job, he would probably easily beat the other candidates. But Long Bailey was seen as a likely winner because she was highly regarded by the Corbynites at the top of the party, and it was assumed that if they wanted her in the top job, the pro-Corbyn membership would duly vote for her too. |
| But the first poll of Labour members since the election defeat suggests that the second assumption is wrong, and that Starmer will prove much more popular with members. My colleague Kate Proctor has written it up here. | But the first poll of Labour members since the election defeat suggests that the second assumption is wrong, and that Starmer will prove much more popular with members. My colleague Kate Proctor has written it up here. |
| This is how her story starts. | This is how her story starts. |
| And here is a Guardian graphic with some of the key figures. | And here is a Guardian graphic with some of the key figures. |
| It is routine to point out that polling can be unreliable (although that is not something people have been saying since the general election result, which was broadly in line with what the pollsters were predicting). And polling party members is harder than polling the public at large, because there are fewer of them. But YouGov can poll Labour members because it has a vast number of people on its database, and in 2015 and in 2016 its Labour membership polls turned out to be reliable guides to the outcome of the two elections that Jeremy Corbyn won handsomely. | It is routine to point out that polling can be unreliable (although that is not something people have been saying since the general election result, which was broadly in line with what the pollsters were predicting). And polling party members is harder than polling the public at large, because there are fewer of them. But YouGov can poll Labour members because it has a vast number of people on its database, and in 2015 and in 2016 its Labour membership polls turned out to be reliable guides to the outcome of the two elections that Jeremy Corbyn won handsomely. |
| The fact that Starmer is so far ahead at this stage does not mean he has it in the bag. He has not even announced his candidature yet and a lot could change during the campaign, particularly when candidates face the sort of scrutiny that they have never received before. | The fact that Starmer is so far ahead at this stage does not mean he has it in the bag. He has not even announced his candidature yet and a lot could change during the campaign, particularly when candidates face the sort of scrutiny that they have never received before. |
| It is also important to remember that YouGov just polled Labour party members. In the leadership campaign two other categories of people get to vote: people affiliated to Labour through membership of a trade union or a socialist society, and people who pay a one-off fee to get a vote as a registered supporter. Although these two groups are broadly similar in outlook to Labour members, they don’t vote in exactly the same way. In 2015 and in 2016 the registered supporters were proportionately significantly more pro-Corbyn than members and affiliates. | It is also important to remember that YouGov just polled Labour party members. In the leadership campaign two other categories of people get to vote: people affiliated to Labour through membership of a trade union or a socialist society, and people who pay a one-off fee to get a vote as a registered supporter. Although these two groups are broadly similar in outlook to Labour members, they don’t vote in exactly the same way. In 2015 and in 2016 the registered supporters were proportionately significantly more pro-Corbyn than members and affiliates. |
| And the fact that this poll has now come out will affect the dynamics of the contest. It will establish Starmer as the clear front-runner - and incentivise his opponents. Labour’s national executive committee is meeting next week to determine the timetable for the leadership election, and how the registered supporters scheme will operate for this contest, and in so far as the NEC is controlled by a particular faction in the party, it is not a faction that wants Starmer to win. | And the fact that this poll has now come out will affect the dynamics of the contest. It will establish Starmer as the clear front-runner - and incentivise his opponents. Labour’s national executive committee is meeting next week to determine the timetable for the leadership election, and how the registered supporters scheme will operate for this contest, and in so far as the NEC is controlled by a particular faction in the party, it is not a faction that wants Starmer to win. |
| Andrew Adonis, the pro-European Labour peer, is one of the Labour figures who has welcomed the poll findings on Twitter this morning. | Andrew Adonis, the pro-European Labour peer, is one of the Labour figures who has welcomed the poll findings on Twitter this morning. |
| But Steve Howell, who was deputy director of strategy and communications for Labour in the 2017, has said that Starmer would be the wrong choice. Howell does not have a party role at the moment, but his views are always worth paying attention to because they tend to align with those of the “4Ms” - Seumas Milne, Corbyn’s communications chief, Karie Murphy, Labour’s elections chief, Len McCluskey, the Unite general secretary, and Andrew Murray, an adviser to McCluskey and Corbyn - who are seen as four of the most powerful figures in the Corbyn leadership. | But Steve Howell, who was deputy director of strategy and communications for Labour in the 2017, has said that Starmer would be the wrong choice. Howell does not have a party role at the moment, but his views are always worth paying attention to because they tend to align with those of the “4Ms” - Seumas Milne, Corbyn’s communications chief, Karie Murphy, Labour’s elections chief, Len McCluskey, the Unite general secretary, and Andrew Murray, an adviser to McCluskey and Corbyn - who are seen as four of the most powerful figures in the Corbyn leadership. |
| It looks as if it is going to be a quiet news day but, as usual, I will be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web. I will post a summary when I wrap up. | It looks as if it is going to be a quiet news day but, as usual, I will be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web. I will post a summary when I wrap up. |
| You can read all the latest Guardian politics articles here. Here is the Politico Europe roundup of this morning’s political news. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’s top 10 must-reads. | You can read all the latest Guardian politics articles here. Here is the Politico Europe roundup of this morning’s political news. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’s top 10 must-reads. |
| If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow. | If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow. |
| I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone. | I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone. |
| If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. | If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. |