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How China’s Virus Outbreak Could Threaten the Global Economy How China’s Virus Outbreak Could Threaten the Global Economy
(3 days later)
HONG KONG — The outbreak of a deadly disease in China has cast a pall over growth prospects for the world’s second largest economy, raising fears about the global outlook if the mysterious coronavirus spreads or worsens.HONG KONG — The outbreak of a deadly disease in China has cast a pall over growth prospects for the world’s second largest economy, raising fears about the global outlook if the mysterious coronavirus spreads or worsens.
Financial markets across Asia fell on Thursday, led by sharp drop in stocks in China, as investors pondered the potential impact of the coronavirus. The extent of its severity has become more clear over the past two days, as Chinese officials reported a surge in cases and a jump in the number of deaths to at least 26.Financial markets across Asia fell on Thursday, led by sharp drop in stocks in China, as investors pondered the potential impact of the coronavirus. The extent of its severity has become more clear over the past two days, as Chinese officials reported a surge in cases and a jump in the number of deaths to at least 26.
On Thursday, officials extended limits on movement in and out of Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak, to two nearby cities that millions more call homeOn Thursday, officials extended limits on movement in and out of Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak, to two nearby cities that millions more call home
The uncertainty has put a palpable damper on Chinese life just before the Lunar New Year holiday — typically a time of travel, shopping and gift-giving — which begins on Friday. Train stations and airports were subdued as travelers changed plans for the weeklong holiday, and seven of the most anticipated film openings of the holiday season were postponed.The uncertainty has put a palpable damper on Chinese life just before the Lunar New Year holiday — typically a time of travel, shopping and gift-giving — which begins on Friday. Train stations and airports were subdued as travelers changed plans for the weeklong holiday, and seven of the most anticipated film openings of the holiday season were postponed.
The Forbidden City in Beijing — China’s most popular tourist attraction — announced, without giving further information, that it would be closed starting on Saturday.The Forbidden City in Beijing — China’s most popular tourist attraction — announced, without giving further information, that it would be closed starting on Saturday.
On the minds of many in China and around the world right now: Could this new virus cause the same kind of damage as the SARS epidemic, which killed 800 people in 2003?On the minds of many in China and around the world right now: Could this new virus cause the same kind of damage as the SARS epidemic, which killed 800 people in 2003?
The question is a crucial one beyond China, because the Chinese economy has for years been one of the world’s most powerful growth engines. A stumble in China could hobble jobs and growth elsewhere.The question is a crucial one beyond China, because the Chinese economy has for years been one of the world’s most powerful growth engines. A stumble in China could hobble jobs and growth elsewhere.
China’s growth in 2003 plunged briefly during the height of SARS but came roaring back in a time when global companies were building Chinese factories and exporting more and more goods abroad.China’s growth in 2003 plunged briefly during the height of SARS but came roaring back in a time when global companies were building Chinese factories and exporting more and more goods abroad.
Today, China’s economy is bigger but is growing at its slowest pace in nearly three decades. It is grappling with problems like the trade war with the United States and a campaign to wean local governments and companies off their addiction to borrowing.Today, China’s economy is bigger but is growing at its slowest pace in nearly three decades. It is grappling with problems like the trade war with the United States and a campaign to wean local governments and companies off their addiction to borrowing.
It also depends more on consumers like Mo Chen, 29, who is curtailing her holiday travel plans, to stay on the safe side. In 2003, the worst-hit sectors were transportation, retail and restaurants.It also depends more on consumers like Mo Chen, 29, who is curtailing her holiday travel plans, to stay on the safe side. In 2003, the worst-hit sectors were transportation, retail and restaurants.
Ms. Mo, who works for an internet company in Shanghai, had been looking forward to traveling home to see her family in Xiangyang, Hubei Province, nearly 200 miles from Wuhan. But given the outbreak, she and her brother, who lives in the city of Hangzhou, decided not to go home. It will be the first time that Ms. Mo has not spent Lunar New Year with her parents.Ms. Mo, who works for an internet company in Shanghai, had been looking forward to traveling home to see her family in Xiangyang, Hubei Province, nearly 200 miles from Wuhan. But given the outbreak, she and her brother, who lives in the city of Hangzhou, decided not to go home. It will be the first time that Ms. Mo has not spent Lunar New Year with her parents.
She now plans to stock up on supplies and stay home, not even venturing out to meet friends or go to the movies. She also intends to skip a trip to the mall to buy new outfits, because nobody will be around to see her wear them. Her brother, meanwhile, is planning to buy pots and pans.She now plans to stock up on supplies and stay home, not even venturing out to meet friends or go to the movies. She also intends to skip a trip to the mall to buy new outfits, because nobody will be around to see her wear them. Her brother, meanwhile, is planning to buy pots and pans.
“He never cooks,” she said. “He always either eats out or eats at the company canteen. But last night our mom asked us to stock up on food, not go out and cook at home.”“He never cooks,” she said. “He always either eats out or eats at the company canteen. But last night our mom asked us to stock up on food, not go out and cook at home.”
For now, the impact is not yet clear. The authorities seem to be responding faster to this outbreak than they did in 2003, but China’s censors are erasing anything that veers from the official narrative. The new coronavirus appears to be less deadly than SARS, but it is difficult to detect, and the authorities started limiting movement out of Wuhan only after many people had set out for their holiday travels.For now, the impact is not yet clear. The authorities seem to be responding faster to this outbreak than they did in 2003, but China’s censors are erasing anything that veers from the official narrative. The new coronavirus appears to be less deadly than SARS, but it is difficult to detect, and the authorities started limiting movement out of Wuhan only after many people had set out for their holiday travels.
“It’s going to depend on how China continues to be transparent with the international community,” said Peter Levesque, the managing director of Modern Terminals, a port operator in Hong Kong. “That’s all business can ask for. The rest is unknown.”“It’s going to depend on how China continues to be transparent with the international community,” said Peter Levesque, the managing director of Modern Terminals, a port operator in Hong Kong. “That’s all business can ask for. The rest is unknown.”
Wuhan is essential to commerce in its region of China, though the economic impact there is expected to be muted by the advent of the holiday. The city is a major national transport hub and has become a center for auto manufacturing, with factories that build cars for General Motors, Honda and many others, as well as dozens of auto parts makers.Wuhan is essential to commerce in its region of China, though the economic impact there is expected to be muted by the advent of the holiday. The city is a major national transport hub and has become a center for auto manufacturing, with factories that build cars for General Motors, Honda and many others, as well as dozens of auto parts makers.
But the effect on people across the country could be a more important factor.But the effect on people across the country could be a more important factor.
Over the long term, China wants its consumers to spend more. Beijing has sought to develop a consumer culture similar to that of the United States so that China’s economy becomes less reliant on big construction and infrastructure projects that often receive government financing. But that shift makes China more vulnerable to events that spook shoppers.Over the long term, China wants its consumers to spend more. Beijing has sought to develop a consumer culture similar to that of the United States so that China’s economy becomes less reliant on big construction and infrastructure projects that often receive government financing. But that shift makes China more vulnerable to events that spook shoppers.
Chinese consumer sentiment had already been bruised. Families spent the past year watching prices rise in grocery stores, increases due largely to the outbreak of a pig disease that depleted much of China’s pork supply. More families are saving rather than spending, and are worrying about the future.Chinese consumer sentiment had already been bruised. Families spent the past year watching prices rise in grocery stores, increases due largely to the outbreak of a pig disease that depleted much of China’s pork supply. More families are saving rather than spending, and are worrying about the future.
“We will probably see a lot less domestic activity than we would normally see at this time of the year,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, a senior China economist at Capital Economics.“We will probably see a lot less domestic activity than we would normally see at this time of the year,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, a senior China economist at Capital Economics.
Updated June 5, 2020 Updated June 12, 2020
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.
Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.
“The concern is that it encourages people to cancel their travel plans, and it comes at a crucial time in terms of holiday travel and spending,” he said.“The concern is that it encourages people to cancel their travel plans, and it comes at a crucial time in terms of holiday travel and spending,” he said.
The disease has struck during one of the year’s busiest spending seasons. Box office sales during the Lunar New Year holiday last year set a record, reaching $860 million over the first six days of the holiday, according to Maoyan, a ticketing service owned by Alibaba.The disease has struck during one of the year’s busiest spending seasons. Box office sales during the Lunar New Year holiday last year set a record, reaching $860 million over the first six days of the holiday, according to Maoyan, a ticketing service owned by Alibaba.
New spending records will be harder to attain this year. Among the film debuts postponed on Thursday was “Boonie Bears: The Wild Life,” a cartoon about clever bears that clash with a hapless logger. In a message to fans on its social media account, the production company wrote, “We don’t want to see audience friends take any health risks,” adding that it did not want to “see that the epidemic may spread further.”New spending records will be harder to attain this year. Among the film debuts postponed on Thursday was “Boonie Bears: The Wild Life,” a cartoon about clever bears that clash with a hapless logger. In a message to fans on its social media account, the production company wrote, “We don’t want to see audience friends take any health risks,” adding that it did not want to “see that the epidemic may spread further.”
Other businesses in some parts of China have been temporarily closed. Major airlines, including Hong Kong’s flagship carrier, Cathay Pacific, have restricted flights to Wuhan. Companies urged employees to wear masks and not to travel.Other businesses in some parts of China have been temporarily closed. Major airlines, including Hong Kong’s flagship carrier, Cathay Pacific, have restricted flights to Wuhan. Companies urged employees to wear masks and not to travel.
Companies that were still offering services urged caution. Didi Chuxing, China’s equivalent to Uber, sent a message to passengers saying that “due to the virus, for the health and safety of everyone, both drivers and passengers should wear face masks.”Companies that were still offering services urged caution. Didi Chuxing, China’s equivalent to Uber, sent a message to passengers saying that “due to the virus, for the health and safety of everyone, both drivers and passengers should wear face masks.”
Hong Kong, the semiautonomous Chinese city that has been roiled by anti-Beijing protests, could sustain yet another blow. The region is already in an economic recession after over half a year of antigovernment protests.Hong Kong, the semiautonomous Chinese city that has been roiled by anti-Beijing protests, could sustain yet another blow. The region is already in an economic recession after over half a year of antigovernment protests.
“If you look at those sectors of the economy, the retail and local businesses, they have already been sadly bruised by the protests last year,” said Tara Joseph, the president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong. “This would just be an extra kick in the teeth that they don’t need.”“If you look at those sectors of the economy, the retail and local businesses, they have already been sadly bruised by the protests last year,” said Tara Joseph, the president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong. “This would just be an extra kick in the teeth that they don’t need.”
But, she added, “it’s too early to panic.”But, she added, “it’s too early to panic.”
Cao Li contributed research.Cao Li contributed research.