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Brexit: EU will have upper hand in trade talks, says Varadkar Brexit talks: UK warned it faces tough challenge against 'team EU'
(about 4 hours later)
Irish leader says EU has ‘stronger team’ and PM will struggle to strike deal on time United bloc will continue to protect its interests, say Michel Barnier and Leo Varadkar
A united EU is likely to have the upper hand in Brexit trade talks with the UK, the Irish taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, has said, warning Boris Johnson that divergence from Brussels standards will make an agreement “a lot harder” in the time allowed. The European Union’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, and the Irish taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, have warned that a united bloc “team 27” will give the UK a stark challenge in the next phase of Brexit negotiations.
Speaking to the BBC before talks in Ireland with the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, Varadkar said “the reality of situation is that the European Union is a union of 27 member states the UK is only one country”. Speaking at a joint press conference in Dublin on Monday, both men said EU solidarity would continue to protect members’ interests in “very challenging” talks with London over a trade deal that are supposed to conclude by the end of this year.
He continued: “And we have a population and a market of 450 million people. The UK, it’s about 60 million. So if these were two teams up against each other playing football, who do you think has the stronger team? So long as we’re united.” The veiled warning came as Downing Street prepared to celebrate the UK’s departure from the EU on Friday.
Varadkar said the dynamics of the talks were unlikely to be notably different even now the EU was facing a UK government with a strong majority. “We’ll say goodbye to an old friend embarking on an adventure,” said Varadkar. “We hope it works out for them. But if it does not, there will always be a seat kept for them at the table.”
“I think we had a strong hand because we had very clear objectives. And that was to protect citizens’ rights, EU citizens in the UK and UK citizens in Europe, to make sure there was a financial settlement, and also that Ireland was protected,” he said. Barnier flagged the risk of economic disruption if negotiators fail to clinch a deal. “If we have no agreement, it will not be business as usual and the status quo, we have to face the risk of a cliff edge, in particular for trade.”
“So, in order for the European Union to continue to have a strong hand, we’re going to have to agree very clear objectives and all 27 member states will have to get behind those objectives and not allow us to be played off against each other.” The show of solidarity followed combative comments earlier by Varadkar in a BBC interview in which he said the EU was likely to have the upper hand against London and could use leverage over the financial industry to extract concessions on fishing.
Saying the deadline of reaching a permanent trade deal by the end of the year was going to be difficult, Varadkar noted that an extension to the post-31-January transition period remained possible if needed. Barnier, who is due to deliver a speech in Belfast later on Monday, said the united front that delivered a withdrawal agreement acceptable to Brussels, Dublin and other members would continue in Brexit’s next phase. “Brexit really showed, we are all part of a family. Brexit will not go away. We have important work ahead of us.”
“Now I know the British government has ruled that out, but it’s still there in the withdrawal agreement should the British government and the EU come together in the joint committee and decide to look for an extension,” he said. The EU’s chief negotiator said the bloc would closely monitor implementation of the Northern Ireland protocol another veiled warning to Downing Street that there will need to be checks on goods crossing between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.
“But it’s going to be pretty tough over the next few months. The European council of March is going to be crucial in that regard. We need to get down to business very quickly trying to get that trade deal which is absolutely essential for the Irish economy, as well as of course for Britain’s as well.” Varadkar, who has sought to remind Irish voters about Brexit in an uphill election campaign for his ruling Fine Gael party, said Ireland wished to remain friends with Britain but would remain part of “team EU”.
Where talks are “going to become tricky”, Varadkar warned, was the UK’s desire to diverge from current EU regulations in some areas, and potentially “undercut us in terms of environmental standards, labour standards, product standards, food standards, all of those things”. In the BBC interview, the taoiseach warned Boris Johnson that divergence from Brussels standards would make an agreement “a lot harder” and made a blunt reminder about the disparity in negotiating power.
Saying he would like guarantees that this would not happen to be put in a treaty, Varadkar agreed that divergence could delay a trade deal. “The reality of situation is that the European Union is a union of 27 member states the UK is only one country. And we have a population and a market of 450 million people. The UK, it’s about 60 million. So if these were two teams up against each other playing football, who do you think has the stronger team? So long as we’re united.”
“It makes it a lot harder,” he said. “But if you remember back when we were negotiating with the Theresa-May-led government, that government would talk a lot about a common rule book. I don’t believe that a common rule book in itself is necessary to secure a trade deal. Varadkar also warned against any UK attempt to get a piecemeal deal with the EU. “When I hear people talk about piecemeal, it sounds a bit like cake and eat. That isn’t something that will fly in Europe.”
“But what we wouldn’t need to agree is a common set of minimum standards, and also have to be high standards. They would have to be standards that we expect in Europe. Higher standards than operate we’ll say perhaps in America or in Asia. And we would need some sort of mechanism to adjudicate if there’s a dispute.” Reaching a permanent trade deal by the end of the year was going to be difficult so an extension to the post-31 January transition period remained possible, he said, despite Downing Street ruling that out. “But it’s going to be pretty tough over the next few months we need to get down to business very quickly trying to get that trade deal.”
This could, Varadkar said, lead to a “mixed agreement” that might need to be ratified by the parliaments of all 27 EU member states, and not just the European parliament. Varadkar said the UK may fail to get a trade deal giving its banks access to the EU’s financial services market unless it agrees to let EU boats carry on fishing in British waters.
“And that’s where it gets messy,” he said. “That’s where one country can hold things up, or two countries can, and potentially that might be the reason as to why we may need an extension for another year in order to allow parliaments around Europe, maybe where there are elections happening, who knows, to have a bit more time to consider it.” “If financial services and entertainment, audiovisual, are cut off from the single market, the European market, that will be a very severe blow to the British economy and the south-east, in particular in London.
Johnson had, as with earlier negotiations, opted to set a hard deadline, Varadkar noted: “And that’s something he did previously when he became prime minister, and I’ve often found that setting a hard deadline accelerates progress and focuses minds, and that’s not necessarily a bad strategy, so long as you don’t take it too far and end up going over the cliff.” “So you may have to make concessions in areas like fishing in order to get concessions from us in areas like financial services and that’s why things tend to be all in the one package,” he said.
Johnson’s official spokesman insisted the UK would be “taking back control of our waters, we have been clear on that” when asked about Varadkar’s comments.
But he did not rule out the idea that fishing rights could be a bargaining chip as part of negotiations to ensure the UK gets a better deal in other areas. “‘It will be for the UK to determine for the best interests of the UK who fishes in those waters,” he said.
In remarks possibly aimed at Irish voters, who have backed the government’s tough stance in Brexit talks, Varadkar accused the UK of misreading the first phase of Brexit in part because many people in Westminster and Britain “don’t understand Ireland”.