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| Worries grow that quarantine in China not enough to stem increasingly virulent coronavirus | Worries grow that quarantine in China not enough to stem increasingly virulent coronavirus |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| Even as China takes more stringent measures to limit the movement of the vast country’s population during the biggest travel period of the year, there are increasing fears that the quarantine will not be enough to stop the spread of the new coronavirus, which so far has infected at least 2,800 people in China and killed at least 82. Here’s what we know: | |
| ● With at least 82 dead so far, Beijing has broadened the extraordinary quarantine to more than 50 million people, but the mayor of Wuhan, the outbreak’s epicenter, said 5 million people have already left his city. | |
| ● Wuhan’s mayor admitted that the city did not release information about the virus in a timely manner but hinted that it was prevented from doing so by central authorities. | ● Wuhan’s mayor admitted that the city did not release information about the virus in a timely manner but hinted that it was prevented from doing so by central authorities. |
| ● China’s health minister said the coronavirus is increasing in virulence and now could be contagious even before people exhibit symptoms, making apparently healthy people possible carriers. | ● China’s health minister said the coronavirus is increasing in virulence and now could be contagious even before people exhibit symptoms, making apparently healthy people possible carriers. |
| ● A scientific assessment of the spread of the disease, assuming an optimistic 90 percent quarantine, still predicted more than 59,000 infections and 1,500 deaths — twice the toll of the 2002-2003 SARS outbreak. | ● A scientific assessment of the spread of the disease, assuming an optimistic 90 percent quarantine, still predicted more than 59,000 infections and 1,500 deaths — twice the toll of the 2002-2003 SARS outbreak. |
| ● In the United States, health officials confirmed five cases of the pneumonia-like illness, while infections also have been confirmed in France, South Korea, Japan, Nepal, Thailand, Cambodia, Singapore, Vietnam, Taiwan and Canada. We’re mapping the spread here. | ● In the United States, health officials confirmed five cases of the pneumonia-like illness, while infections also have been confirmed in France, South Korea, Japan, Nepal, Thailand, Cambodia, Singapore, Vietnam, Taiwan and Canada. We’re mapping the spread here. |
| WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT THE CORONAVIRUS | SCENES FROM CHINA’S DEADLY CORONAVIRUS CRISIS | WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT THE CORONAVIRUS | SCENES FROM CHINA’S DEADLY CORONAVIRUS CRISIS |
| BERLIN — A number of countries moved forward with plans to evacuate their citizens from the coronavirus epicenter Wuhan on Monday, including Japan, France, Sri Lanka and the United States. Others are still weighing their options. | |
| On Monday night Eastern time, a plane carrying U.S. citizens in Wuhan will leave the city and return to the United States, according to a U.S. government official who asked to remain anonymous because they were not authorized to discuss the details. | |
| The evacuated U.S. citizens will be evaluated before they get on the plane, during the flight and after they arrive in the United States, the official said. Once they arrive, they will be monitored for an additional 72 hours. So even though they will return to the United States on Tuesday, they will not be able to return to their homes until Friday, the official said. | |
| In a statement, the U.S. Embassy in Beijing cautioned that it expects “there will be limited capacity to transport private U.S. citizens” and said that “priority will be given to individuals at greater risk from coronavirus.” | |
| France has scheduled a similar flight for midweek, according to French Health Minister Agnès Buzyn, while Sri Lankan officials said Monday that they have a plan for their own citizens. Japan also said it would charter at least one plane this week to bring citizens out of Wuhan, which serves as a hub for many Japanese corporations. The German government said Monday it was still “considering” an evacuation. | |
| The British government is facing mounting pressure to enact an evacuation plan. Emily Thornberry of the opposition Labour Party said Prime Minister Boris Johnson was “not doing whatever it takes to protect our citizens from harm. They need to get this evacuation sorted now,” according to the Evening Standard newspaper. | |
| On Twitter, the British Embassy in Beijing wrote that its officials “are working to make available an option for British nationals to leave Hubei province.” | |
| WASHINGTON — There are eight new confirmed coronavirus cases in Beijing, including the capital’s first death from the outbreak, city authorities announced Monday. | |
| The unnamed victim was a 50-year-old man who had visited Wuhan on Jan. 8 and developed a fever after he returned to Beijing seven days later, according to a Weibo post by Beijing’s city health commission. | |
| The man had visited a hospital on Jan. 21, was diagnosed the next day and died on Monday of respiratory failure, the commission announced. | |
| NEW DELHI — Monika Sethuraman, a PhD student from India, described Wuhan as a “ghost town” when she stepped out of her university dormitory for the first time in four days Monday to stock up on supplies. | NEW DELHI — Monika Sethuraman, a PhD student from India, described Wuhan as a “ghost town” when she stepped out of her university dormitory for the first time in four days Monday to stock up on supplies. |
| She bought vegetables to last for three weeks, since it was not clear how long the lockdown would last in the central Chinese city. She said the university has asked students to remain confined to their rooms and distributed thermometers. | |
| “Every day before noon, we have to check our temperature and register it on a university portal,” she said. | |
| Debesh Mitra, a postdoctoral scientist at another university in the city, said more than 200 Indians were “stuck” in Wuhan. He described the situation as “grim.” | Debesh Mitra, a postdoctoral scientist at another university in the city, said more than 200 Indians were “stuck” in Wuhan. He described the situation as “grim.” |
| He said he had avoided leaving the campus for fear of contracting the virus. | He said he had avoided leaving the campus for fear of contracting the virus. |
| “We really want to come back [to India] at the earliest,” he said. “All our families are very worried.” | “We really want to come back [to India] at the earliest,” he said. “All our families are very worried.” |
| BERLIN — Several Russian tourism operators have halted the sale of package trips to China, following advice from Russia’s federal tourism agency, Rosturizm. | BERLIN — Several Russian tourism operators have halted the sale of package trips to China, following advice from Russia’s federal tourism agency, Rosturizm. |
| The vice president of the Association of Russian Tour Operators, Dmitry Gorin, told Reuters that sales ceased on Friday and that customers who had already purchased trips would be reimbursed. | |
| The measure came as China announced its own steps to curb tourism, aimed at slowing the spread of the new coronavirus outbreak there. Beijing halted inter-province bus traffic into the capital over the weekend, followed by a nationwide ban on tour groups traveling abroad that took effect on Monday. | The measure came as China announced its own steps to curb tourism, aimed at slowing the spread of the new coronavirus outbreak there. Beijing halted inter-province bus traffic into the capital over the weekend, followed by a nationwide ban on tour groups traveling abroad that took effect on Monday. |
| Hotel and restaurant owners in destinations that rely heavily on Chinese visitors fear the ban could remain in place for months. | |
| In China, Shanghai’s Disneyland and Beijing’s Palace Museum will remain closed until further notice. | In China, Shanghai’s Disneyland and Beijing’s Palace Museum will remain closed until further notice. |
| Meanwhile, corporations around the globe moved to restrict business travel to China as a precautionary measure. German manufacturer Schaeffler — which employs around 90,000 people internationally — was among the biggest European companies to prohibit business trips to China last week. | Meanwhile, corporations around the globe moved to restrict business travel to China as a precautionary measure. German manufacturer Schaeffler — which employs around 90,000 people internationally — was among the biggest European companies to prohibit business trips to China last week. |
| WASHINGTON — Global markets took a sharp downturn Monday as investors grew increasingly anxious about the swift spread of the coronavirus beyond China. | WASHINGTON — Global markets took a sharp downturn Monday as investors grew increasingly anxious about the swift spread of the coronavirus beyond China. |
| The Dow plunged 450 points, or about 1.5 percent. Standard & Poor’s 500 and Nasdaq futures were also down significantly, 1.5 percent and 2 percent, respectively. | The Dow plunged 450 points, or about 1.5 percent. Standard & Poor’s 500 and Nasdaq futures were also down significantly, 1.5 percent and 2 percent, respectively. |
| “Stock markets are selling off this morning on fears that the coronavirus might be harder to contain than previous viral outbreaks,” said Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research. “If the current outbreak turns into a pandemic that significantly disrupts global commerce, the impact would be bad news for the global economy and corporate earnings.” | “Stock markets are selling off this morning on fears that the coronavirus might be harder to contain than previous viral outbreaks,” said Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research. “If the current outbreak turns into a pandemic that significantly disrupts global commerce, the impact would be bad news for the global economy and corporate earnings.” |
| Read more here. | Read more here. |
| TORONTO — Canadian public health officials said Monday that the wife of the man who was declared the country’s first “presumptive positive” case of the coronavirus has also tested positive for the virus at Ontario’s public health laboratory. | TORONTO — Canadian public health officials said Monday that the wife of the man who was declared the country’s first “presumptive positive” case of the coronavirus has also tested positive for the virus at Ontario’s public health laboratory. |
| The woman has been in “self-isolation,” David Williams, Ontario’s chief medical officer of health, said in a statement. He added that the risk to Ontarians of contracting the virus remains low. | The woman has been in “self-isolation,” David Williams, Ontario’s chief medical officer of health, said in a statement. He added that the risk to Ontarians of contracting the virus remains low. |
| The husband and wife returned to Toronto from Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the outbreak, via Guangzhou on a China Southern Airlines flight that arrived on Jan. 22, authorities said. He was admitted the next day to Toronto’s Sunnybrook Hospital, where he is now in isolation and in stable condition. | The husband and wife returned to Toronto from Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the outbreak, via Guangzhou on a China Southern Airlines flight that arrived on Jan. 22, authorities said. He was admitted the next day to Toronto’s Sunnybrook Hospital, where he is now in isolation and in stable condition. |
| Theresa Tam, Canada’s chief medical officer, said the man had “mild symptoms” of the virus on the plane, although he was not flagged to public health officials upon his arrival. Authorities are contacting passengers who sat within about six feet of him and any flight attendants who might have assisted him. | |
| Both cases are considered “presumptive positive” because officials are awaiting confirmation from the National Microbiology Laboratory in Winnipeg. | Both cases are considered “presumptive positive” because officials are awaiting confirmation from the National Microbiology Laboratory in Winnipeg. |
| WASHINGTON — President Trump tweeted Monday that the United States is “in very close communication with China concerning the virus.” | WASHINGTON — President Trump tweeted Monday that the United States is “in very close communication with China concerning the virus.” |
| “Very few cases reported in USA, but strongly on watch,” he wrote. “We have offered China and President Xi any help that is necessary. Our experts are extraordinary!” | “Very few cases reported in USA, but strongly on watch,” he wrote. “We have offered China and President Xi any help that is necessary. Our experts are extraordinary!” |
| The tweet was his second mention of the virus on social media in recent days. On Friday, he praised China’s response to the outbreak, thanking President Xi Jinping and saying Chinese officials have “been working very hard” to contain the virus and that the United States “greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency.” | The tweet was his second mention of the virus on social media in recent days. On Friday, he praised China’s response to the outbreak, thanking President Xi Jinping and saying Chinese officials have “been working very hard” to contain the virus and that the United States “greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency.” |
| “It will all work out well,” he wrote. | “It will all work out well,” he wrote. |
| BEIJING — The mayor of Wuhan, the Chinese city at the center of the coronavirus outbreak, announced several stark numbers at a late-night news conference on Sunday, with most focusing on his prediction that there would be at least 1,000 new infections. | BEIJING — The mayor of Wuhan, the Chinese city at the center of the coronavirus outbreak, announced several stark numbers at a late-night news conference on Sunday, with most focusing on his prediction that there would be at least 1,000 new infections. |
| But Mayor Zhou Xianwang revealed another number that underscored the metastasizing challenge of the accelerating epidemic: 5 million. | But Mayor Zhou Xianwang revealed another number that underscored the metastasizing challenge of the accelerating epidemic: 5 million. |
| That was the number of people who had emptied out of Wuhan in recent days — and scattered all over the world — as China’s Lunar New Year holiday period approached and authorities announced a lockdown in an urgent bid to contain the outbreak. | That was the number of people who had emptied out of Wuhan in recent days — and scattered all over the world — as China’s Lunar New Year holiday period approached and authorities announced a lockdown in an urgent bid to contain the outbreak. |
| As of Monday, the virus has infected 2,835 people in China and killed 81, according to data provided by the National Health Commission. | As of Monday, the virus has infected 2,835 people in China and killed 81, according to data provided by the National Health Commission. |
| BEIJING — The effectiveness of an unprecedented quarantine around the viral epicenter in central China’s Hubei province has become a key question, as Chinese and international authorities ponder how to rein in the disease — and, at this point, whether it could be contained at all. | BEIJING — The effectiveness of an unprecedented quarantine around the viral epicenter in central China’s Hubei province has become a key question, as Chinese and international authorities ponder how to rein in the disease — and, at this point, whether it could be contained at all. |
| “Radical times call for radical measures,” said Dong-Yan Jin, a professor of molecular virology and oncology at Hong Kong University’s School of Biomedical Sciences. “A lot of cities have followed Wuhan in announcing a lockdown, but don’t forget that many potential patients are already out there before such an administrative order. Are we going to shut down the whole country?” | “Radical times call for radical measures,” said Dong-Yan Jin, a professor of molecular virology and oncology at Hong Kong University’s School of Biomedical Sciences. “A lot of cities have followed Wuhan in announcing a lockdown, but don’t forget that many potential patients are already out there before such an administrative order. Are we going to shut down the whole country?” |
| Jin said Chinese authorities had missed the critical moment to control the epidemic: before the New Year’s travel rush began a week ago. | Jin said Chinese authorities had missed the critical moment to control the epidemic: before the New Year’s travel rush began a week ago. |
| “There was a lack of transparency in Hubei and an unwillingness by local governments to face the music; now, they tend to overcompensate,” he said. “You cannot expect that to work miracles and stop the outbreak.” | “There was a lack of transparency in Hubei and an unwillingness by local governments to face the music; now, they tend to overcompensate,” he said. “You cannot expect that to work miracles and stop the outbreak.” |
| Widespread suspicions on Chinese social media that government officials mishandled the early stages of the crisis were fanned dramatically on Monday by an unlikely player: the Wuhan mayor, Zhou Xianwang. | Widespread suspicions on Chinese social media that government officials mishandled the early stages of the crisis were fanned dramatically on Monday by an unlikely player: the Wuhan mayor, Zhou Xianwang. |
| In a remarkable interview with Chinese state broadcaster CCTV, Zhou acknowledged that his city did not release “timely and satisfactory” information at the start of the epidemic, and he appeared to blame higher-ups in his chain of command. | In a remarkable interview with Chinese state broadcaster CCTV, Zhou acknowledged that his city did not release “timely and satisfactory” information at the start of the epidemic, and he appeared to blame higher-ups in his chain of command. |
| “I hope everyone can understand that this is an infectious disease, and infectious diseases must be disclosed according to law,” he said. “We can only disclose information after we receive authorization.” | “I hope everyone can understand that this is an infectious disease, and infectious diseases must be disclosed according to law,” he said. “We can only disclose information after we receive authorization.” |
| BEIJING — Some medical experts warn that the number of cases may be higher than the authorities know or acknowledge. They also say that the mass lockdown and efforts to quarantine patients are too late due to the missteps in December, when reports of a novel virus in Wuhan began to emerge without prompting a response. | BEIJING — Some medical experts warn that the number of cases may be higher than the authorities know or acknowledge. They also say that the mass lockdown and efforts to quarantine patients are too late due to the missteps in December, when reports of a novel virus in Wuhan began to emerge without prompting a response. |
| Gabriel Leung, an epidemiologist who is chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University, told reporters in Hong Kong on Monday that his model showed the true number of coronavirus patients to be as high as 44,000. | Gabriel Leung, an epidemiologist who is chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University, told reporters in Hong Kong on Monday that his model showed the true number of coronavirus patients to be as high as 44,000. |
| He warned that the epidemic could become global and reach a peak in China in April or May, when 150,000 new cases could be confirmed every day in one Chinese city — Chongqing — alone. | He warned that the epidemic could become global and reach a peak in China in April or May, when 150,000 new cases could be confirmed every day in one Chinese city — Chongqing — alone. |
| Escalating worldwide concerns, Chinese Health Minister Ma Xiaowei said Sunday that people carrying the new coronavirus could infect others even while they do not show any symptoms for as long as 14 days, a period known as incubation. That implies that, unlike SARS, seemingly healthy travelers could have unwittingly infected others. | Escalating worldwide concerns, Chinese Health Minister Ma Xiaowei said Sunday that people carrying the new coronavirus could infect others even while they do not show any symptoms for as long as 14 days, a period known as incubation. That implies that, unlike SARS, seemingly healthy travelers could have unwittingly infected others. |
| But international experts, including at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, say they are still seeking to confirm Ma’s statement. Australia’s chief medical officer, Brendan Murphy, told reporters on Monday that expert panels were not yet convinced that the virus could be spread by people who were still symptom-free. | But international experts, including at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, say they are still seeking to confirm Ma’s statement. Australia’s chief medical officer, Brendan Murphy, told reporters on Monday that expert panels were not yet convinced that the virus could be spread by people who were still symptom-free. |
| Some researchers say that even a small degree of porousness in the quarantine effort could have magnified implications for the epidemic’s toll. | Some researchers say that even a small degree of porousness in the quarantine effort could have magnified implications for the epidemic’s toll. |
| In a study published Saturday, Yu Xiaohua, a professor at the University of Göttingen in Germany, concluded that the epidemic cannot be controlled if the quarantine rate of the infectious population falls below 90 percent. | In a study published Saturday, Yu Xiaohua, a professor at the University of Göttingen in Germany, concluded that the epidemic cannot be controlled if the quarantine rate of the infectious population falls below 90 percent. |
| If 90 percent of patients are quarantined, his modeling suggested, the final number of cases might reach 59,000, with 1,500 deaths. But if only half the infected patients are quarantined, the final number of infected people could approach 5 million, with more than 100,000 deaths. | If 90 percent of patients are quarantined, his modeling suggested, the final number of cases might reach 59,000, with 1,500 deaths. But if only half the infected patients are quarantined, the final number of infected people could approach 5 million, with more than 100,000 deaths. |
| At the same time, experts say they are heartened so far by the low number of reports so far of human-to-human transmission outside of central China. | At the same time, experts say they are heartened so far by the low number of reports so far of human-to-human transmission outside of central China. |
| In its update Sunday, the U.S. CDC said it considered the coronavirus to pose a low health risk to the general American public “at this time,” but warned that person-to-person infection will likely occur at some point in the United States. | In its update Sunday, the U.S. CDC said it considered the coronavirus to pose a low health risk to the general American public “at this time,” but warned that person-to-person infection will likely occur at some point in the United States. |