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Asia faces steep economic price in battle to stop the spread of the coronavirus outbreak Asia faces steep economic price in battle to stop the coronavirus outbreak
(30 minutes later)
The number of deaths from the coronavirus has risen to 106 in China with more than 4,565 cases of infection, even as countries in the region are also reporting more and more infected — nearly all of them tourists from China. Governments in the region are facing the stark choice of whether to cut all contact with infected regions and take a massive blow to their economies or rely on increased screenings. Here’s what we know:The number of deaths from the coronavirus has risen to 106 in China with more than 4,565 cases of infection, even as countries in the region are also reporting more and more infected — nearly all of them tourists from China. Governments in the region are facing the stark choice of whether to cut all contact with infected regions and take a massive blow to their economies or rely on increased screenings. Here’s what we know:
● China’s Center for Disease control said a balance has to be struck between controlling the spread of the disease and mimizing the economic impact. A longer holiday is better, said the deputy director general, but “people need to live and work and emergency supplies need to be manufactured and transported.”● China’s Center for Disease control said a balance has to be struck between controlling the spread of the disease and mimizing the economic impact. A longer holiday is better, said the deputy director general, but “people need to live and work and emergency supplies need to be manufactured and transported.”
● Global markets saw heavy losses on Monday with the Dow plunging 1.6 percent. That trend is continuing across Asia on Tuesday as markets are opening down after the Lunar New Year’s holiday. Both South Korea and Japan’s markets have dropped 3 percent so far.● Global markets saw heavy losses on Monday with the Dow plunging 1.6 percent. That trend is continuing across Asia on Tuesday as markets are opening down after the Lunar New Year’s holiday. Both South Korea and Japan’s markets have dropped 3 percent so far.
● The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Monday there were no new confirmed cases of coronavirus overnight but that it is investigating 110 people in 26 states. There are five confirmed cases in the United States so far.● The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Monday there were no new confirmed cases of coronavirus overnight but that it is investigating 110 people in 26 states. There are five confirmed cases in the United States so far.
● Germany has reported its first case while Thailand has confirmed six more cases, bringing its total to 14 amid calls by many Asian populations to close the borders to Chinese visitors. Infections have been confirmed in France, South Korea, Japan, Nepal, Cambodia, Singapore, Vietnam, Taiwan, Canada and Sri Lanka. We’re mapping the spread here.● Germany has reported its first case while Thailand has confirmed six more cases, bringing its total to 14 amid calls by many Asian populations to close the borders to Chinese visitors. Infections have been confirmed in France, South Korea, Japan, Nepal, Cambodia, Singapore, Vietnam, Taiwan, Canada and Sri Lanka. We’re mapping the spread here.
WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT THE CORONAVIRUS | SCENES FROM CHINA’S DEADLY CORONAVIRUS CRISISWHAT WE KNOW ABOUT THE CORONAVIRUS | SCENES FROM CHINA’S DEADLY CORONAVIRUS CRISIS
BEIJING — With global stock markets sliding on anxieties about the spread of the deadly coronavirus, governments across Asia are facing an increasingly difficult dilemma: the choice between their health or their economy. Do they stop people from traveling to their countries for business or vacation and risk a major hit to their economies or should they hope increased border screenings will prevent the epidemic from spreading further?BEIJING — With global stock markets sliding on anxieties about the spread of the deadly coronavirus, governments across Asia are facing an increasingly difficult dilemma: the choice between their health or their economy. Do they stop people from traveling to their countries for business or vacation and risk a major hit to their economies or should they hope increased border screenings will prevent the epidemic from spreading further?
China has already placed around 50 million people on the central province of Hubei on lockdown, banned tour groups from traveling abroad and extended its Lunar New Year holiday three days until Sunday Feb. 2. However, experts warn this may not be enough to contain the epidemic that has already claimed at least 106 lives and infected more than 4,500 people, according to official figures. China has already placed around 54 million people on the central province of Hubei on lockdown, banned tour groups from traveling abroad and extended its Lunar New Year holiday three days until Sunday Feb. 2. However, experts warn this may not be enough to contain the epidemic that has already claimed at least 106 lives and infected more than 4,500 people, according to official figures.
Tourists have already brought the disease to Thailand, Singapore, the United States, Australia, Japan and South Korea, as well as eight other countries and territories. Meanwhile tens of millions of migrant workers will stream backs into China’s cities at the end of the holiday season, where they live and work in very close proximity to each other.Tourists have already brought the disease to Thailand, Singapore, the United States, Australia, Japan and South Korea, as well as eight other countries and territories. Meanwhile tens of millions of migrant workers will stream backs into China’s cities at the end of the holiday season, where they live and work in very close proximity to each other.
Even if workers from Wuhan, the central Chinese city at the epicenter of the disease, are barred from traveling, the huge movement of people raises the risk of another surge in cases.Even if workers from Wuhan, the central Chinese city at the epicenter of the disease, are barred from traveling, the huge movement of people raises the risk of another surge in cases.
But China’s government can’t afford to shut the economy down indefinitely — not least because its political legitimacy and its expensive system of societal control rest squarely on economic growth and tax revenue.But China’s government can’t afford to shut the economy down indefinitely — not least because its political legitimacy and its expensive system of societal control rest squarely on economic growth and tax revenue.
The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) says it’s a question of striking a balance between controlling the spread of the disease and minimizing the social and economic impacts.The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) says it’s a question of striking a balance between controlling the spread of the disease and minimizing the social and economic impacts.
“Of course, the longer the extended holiday is, the better it is for epidemic control,” Feng Zijian, CDC deputy director general told state broadcaster China Central Television in a Monday night interview. “But we have also to strike a balance, because people need to live and work, and emergency supplies need to be manufactured and transported.”“Of course, the longer the extended holiday is, the better it is for epidemic control,” Feng Zijian, CDC deputy director general told state broadcaster China Central Television in a Monday night interview. “But we have also to strike a balance, because people need to live and work, and emergency supplies need to be manufactured and transported.”
Coronavirus prompts CDC to expand travel warning to all of ChinaCoronavirus prompts CDC to expand travel warning to all of China
Global stock markets took a sharp downturn Monday as investors grew increasingly anxious about the swift spread of the coronavirus beyond China. The Dow Jones industrial average plunged 454 points, or about 1.6 percent.Global stock markets took a sharp downturn Monday as investors grew increasingly anxious about the swift spread of the coronavirus beyond China. The Dow Jones industrial average plunged 454 points, or about 1.6 percent.
In South Korea, markets opened after a three-day holiday with the main share index falling more than 3 percent by early afternoon, with losses across the board on concerns the virus will cause a downturn in global demand. Japan’s main Nikkei 225 index has fallen nearly 3 percent so far this week. China’s markets remain closed for the holidays.In South Korea, markets opened after a three-day holiday with the main share index falling more than 3 percent by early afternoon, with losses across the board on concerns the virus will cause a downturn in global demand. Japan’s main Nikkei 225 index has fallen nearly 3 percent so far this week. China’s markets remain closed for the holidays.
In China’s neighbors and near-neighbors, the dilemma is also sharp, because the Lunar New Year holiday is traditionally a week when millions of Chinese tourists fan out around the region on vacation, providing a welcome financial boost to the region’s tourist industries.In China’s neighbors and near-neighbors, the dilemma is also sharp, because the Lunar New Year holiday is traditionally a week when millions of Chinese tourists fan out around the region on vacation, providing a welcome financial boost to the region’s tourist industries.
In South Korea, nearly 530,000 people have signed a petition asking President Moon Jae-in to ban Chinese people from entering the country. Moon’s predecessor, Park Geun-hye, was widely criticized for fumbling her government’s response to the outbreak of MERS or Middle East respiratory syndrome in 2015, and Moon’s government has been keen to underline it has taken steps to monitor of people entering the country and isolate those infected.In South Korea, nearly 530,000 people have signed a petition asking President Moon Jae-in to ban Chinese people from entering the country. Moon’s predecessor, Park Geun-hye, was widely criticized for fumbling her government’s response to the outbreak of MERS or Middle East respiratory syndrome in 2015, and Moon’s government has been keen to underline it has taken steps to monitor of people entering the country and isolate those infected.
As deadly coronavirus spreads, U.S. to expand screening of passengers from China at 20 airportsAs deadly coronavirus spreads, U.S. to expand screening of passengers from China at 20 airports
North Korea, which lacks the medical infrastructure to cope with a viral epidemic, has completely banned all foreign tourists from entering the country, taking what will be a significant blow to its economy. The isolated nation had been relying on a massive influx of Chinese tourists to help relieve the pain caused by international sanctions.North Korea, which lacks the medical infrastructure to cope with a viral epidemic, has completely banned all foreign tourists from entering the country, taking what will be a significant blow to its economy. The isolated nation had been relying on a massive influx of Chinese tourists to help relieve the pain caused by international sanctions.
Japan has also been banking on Chinese tourists to boost its sluggish economy this year, not only over Lunar New Year but throughout the year, as well as during the Summer Olympic Games in Tokyo.Japan has also been banking on Chinese tourists to boost its sluggish economy this year, not only over Lunar New Year but throughout the year, as well as during the Summer Olympic Games in Tokyo.
“In that sense, the outbreak of the new pneumonia virus comes at the worst time.” Hideo Kumano, executive chief economist, Dai-ichi Life Research Institute, wrote in a column for Reuters, warning that a prolonged epidemic could affect the Olympics and have a significant impact on the country’s consumer-driven industries.“In that sense, the outbreak of the new pneumonia virus comes at the worst time.” Hideo Kumano, executive chief economist, Dai-ichi Life Research Institute, wrote in a column for Reuters, warning that a prolonged epidemic could affect the Olympics and have a significant impact on the country’s consumer-driven industries.
In Hong Kong, where the economy has already been buffeted by massive street protests calling for greater democracy, there have also been calls for the border with China to be closed.In Hong Kong, where the economy has already been buffeted by massive street protests calling for greater democracy, there have also been calls for the border with China to be closed.
Beijing has sovereignty over Hong Kong, but under the “one country, two systems” arrangement, Hong Kong maintains its own immigration system.
James Tien, a prominent businessman and honorary chairman of the pro-business and pro-Beijing Liberal Party, in a Facebook post on Tuesday urged the government to consider closing the mainland border for a period of a month to start.
Though it is a “very painful” suggestion for someone who’s advocated for a business-friendly environment, “special times call for special measures,” Tien wrote.
The territory is already reeling from the impact of eight months of political unrest over fears that Hong Kong’s autonomy is being eroded by Beijing.
Tourism has been hit particularly hard, but some unions even in this sector, however, are similarly advocating for the border closure, arguing that the government must prioritize public health over short-term economic gain.
“If everyone is unwell, economics won’t be important anymore,” said Alex Tsui, chairman of the pro-democracy Hong Kong Hotel Employees Union, noting that the 2003 SARS epidemic which hit the territory particularly hard spread through hotels.
“Our industry is very high risk, and hotels are dangerous place for a virus to spread. The safety of the Hong Kong people and our hotel workers have to be the priority.”
The Hong Kong government has encouraged civil servants, other than those delivering health care and other essential public services, to work from home. Sports facilities and museums have been closed indefinitely, and major banks, financial institutions and law firms have also asked workers to self-quarantine.
Andrew Collier, managing director and founder of Orient Capital Research, said the international business community is already exhausted by the long U.S.-China trade war and months of street protests.
“The virus adds further fuel to the fire,” he said. “All of these problems in total add to mounting evidence that Hong Kong’s best days may be over.”
While outright border closures remain extremely unlikely, the epidemic may reinforce perceptions around Asia that their economies are too dependent on China and its tourists.While outright border closures remain extremely unlikely, the epidemic may reinforce perceptions around Asia that their economies are too dependent on China and its tourists.
But it’s in China that the greatest impact will obviously be felt. Five million people had already left Wuhan, one of China’s nine largest megacities and a major transport hub, before the lockdown had come into effect, its mayor said at the weekend.But it’s in China that the greatest impact will obviously be felt. Five million people had already left Wuhan, one of China’s nine largest megacities and a major transport hub, before the lockdown had come into effect, its mayor said at the weekend.
As they spread the virus around the country, fears are already mounting that the cost of the virus could exceed that of the 2002-3 SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) outbreak.As they spread the virus around the country, fears are already mounting that the cost of the virus could exceed that of the 2002-3 SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) outbreak.
“We believe the negative impact of the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak on China’s economy should not be understated, though it is quite difficult to gauge at this stage because of much uncertainty,” Nomura wrote in a research note.“We believe the negative impact of the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak on China’s economy should not be understated, though it is quite difficult to gauge at this stage because of much uncertainty,” Nomura wrote in a research note.
Facebook, Google and Twitter scramble to stop misinformation about coronavirusFacebook, Google and Twitter scramble to stop misinformation about coronavirus
Nomura said the virus could hit the services sector badly and weigh on production and investment, especially for provinces badly affected by the virus and reliant on migrant workers. China’s economy was also not in as good a shape to withstand the impact as it had been in 2002-3, it added, while the virus could also complicate the government’s plans to roll out an economic stimulus package.Nomura said the virus could hit the services sector badly and weigh on production and investment, especially for provinces badly affected by the virus and reliant on migrant workers. China’s economy was also not in as good a shape to withstand the impact as it had been in 2002-3, it added, while the virus could also complicate the government’s plans to roll out an economic stimulus package.
Gavekal Dragonomics, a consultancy firm, said the economic cost of the virus was not simply a function of its fatality rate.Gavekal Dragonomics, a consultancy firm, said the economic cost of the virus was not simply a function of its fatality rate.
“These costs are instead going to be determined by the measures China’s government takes to contain its spread — measures which have rapidly escalated to an unprecedented severity,” its economists wrote in a research note.“These costs are instead going to be determined by the measures China’s government takes to contain its spread — measures which have rapidly escalated to an unprecedented severity,” its economists wrote in a research note.
“The extended shutdown of normal travel and business now in place across much of China is guaranteed to deliver a hit to growth in the first quarter of 2020, concentrated in travel and tourism.”“The extended shutdown of normal travel and business now in place across much of China is guaranteed to deliver a hit to growth in the first quarter of 2020, concentrated in travel and tourism.”
SARS had a much greater impact on the economies of Hong Kong and China than the rest of the world.SARS had a much greater impact on the economies of Hong Kong and China than the rest of the world.
A 2004 study by experts at Korea University and The Australian National University estimated that the overall impact of SARS — not just in terms of direct costs but also business confidence — cut Hong Kong’s gross domestic product by 2.6 percent, and mainland China’s by just over 1 percent, with a total cost to the global economy of $40 billion.A 2004 study by experts at Korea University and The Australian National University estimated that the overall impact of SARS — not just in terms of direct costs but also business confidence — cut Hong Kong’s gross domestic product by 2.6 percent, and mainland China’s by just over 1 percent, with a total cost to the global economy of $40 billion.
In Hong Kong, Andrew Collier, managing director and founder of Orient Capital Research, said the international business community is already exhausted by the long U.S.-China trade war and months of street protests.
“The virus adds further fuel to the fire,” he said. “All of these problems in total add to mounting evidence that Hong Kong’s best days may be over.”
China’s coronavirus lockdown — brought to you by authoritarianismChina’s coronavirus lockdown — brought to you by authoritarianism
Amid growing alarm about the disease’s fast spread, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is boosting staffing at 20 U.S. airports that have quarantine facilities and that receive the vast majority of airline passengers from China.Amid growing alarm about the disease’s fast spread, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is boosting staffing at 20 U.S. airports that have quarantine facilities and that receive the vast majority of airline passengers from China.
In the United States, 110 people in 26 states are being tested for possible infection, but only five so far — all people who traveled from Wuhan, the capital of Hubei province in central China — are confirmed to have the infection, the CDC said Monday. No one in the United States has died, and there is no known case yet of the virus spreading within the country.In the United States, 110 people in 26 states are being tested for possible infection, but only five so far — all people who traveled from Wuhan, the capital of Hubei province in central China — are confirmed to have the infection, the CDC said Monday. No one in the United States has died, and there is no known case yet of the virus spreading within the country.
The CDC increased its travel warning to a Level 3 Monday — its highest alert level — urging U.S. citizens to avoid all nonessential travel to China because of the outbreak. The warning says those who travel should avoid all contact with sick people, animal markets and products that come from animals, and wash their hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.The CDC increased its travel warning to a Level 3 Monday — its highest alert level — urging U.S. citizens to avoid all nonessential travel to China because of the outbreak. The warning says those who travel should avoid all contact with sick people, animal markets and products that come from animals, and wash their hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.
Denyer reported from Tokyo. Shibani Mahtani in Hong Kong contributed to this report.Denyer reported from Tokyo. Shibani Mahtani in Hong Kong contributed to this report.