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| OPEC Scrambles to React to Falling Oil Demand From China | OPEC Scrambles to React to Falling Oil Demand From China |
| (about 20 hours later) | |
| Officials of some of the world’s largest oil producers are scrambling to stem a sharp fall in prices over concerns that the growing coronavirus epidemic will reduce demand from China, the biggest importer. | Officials of some of the world’s largest oil producers are scrambling to stem a sharp fall in prices over concerns that the growing coronavirus epidemic will reduce demand from China, the biggest importer. |
| Over the weekend, officials from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, as well as Russia, agreed to meet on Tuesday and Wednesday in Vienna, where OPEC has its headquarters, to discuss the situation in the oil markets, according to two people briefed on the plans. | Over the weekend, officials from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, as well as Russia, agreed to meet on Tuesday and Wednesday in Vienna, where OPEC has its headquarters, to discuss the situation in the oil markets, according to two people briefed on the plans. |
| The big producers are also discussing whether to schedule an emergency ministerial-level meeting this month, moving up a gathering planned for early March. On the agenda would be production cuts of up to one million barrels a day, or about 1 percent of world supplies, according to a person familiar with the matter. | The big producers are also discussing whether to schedule an emergency ministerial-level meeting this month, moving up a gathering planned for early March. On the agenda would be production cuts of up to one million barrels a day, or about 1 percent of world supplies, according to a person familiar with the matter. |
| “They are absolutely trying to put a floor under prices,” said Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects, a market research firm. | “They are absolutely trying to put a floor under prices,” said Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects, a market research firm. |
| The price of Brent crude, the international benchmark, has fallen about 19 percent over the last month to less than $55 a barrel, the lowest in more than a year. The plunge has undercut the impact of the carefully orchestrated production cuts that OPEC announced at its December meeting in Vienna. | The price of Brent crude, the international benchmark, has fallen about 19 percent over the last month to less than $55 a barrel, the lowest in more than a year. The plunge has undercut the impact of the carefully orchestrated production cuts that OPEC announced at its December meeting in Vienna. |
| West Texas intermediate, the American benchmark, entered a bear market on Monday after it fell more than 20 percent from its January high, settling at $50.11. | West Texas intermediate, the American benchmark, entered a bear market on Monday after it fell more than 20 percent from its January high, settling at $50.11. |
| OPEC seems unlikely to stem the price declines soon. Ms. Sen said China was already reducing its orders for March from Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC and the world’s largest oil exporter. It is too late to cut February orders. | OPEC seems unlikely to stem the price declines soon. Ms. Sen said China was already reducing its orders for March from Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC and the world’s largest oil exporter. It is too late to cut February orders. |
| China is Saudi Arabia’s most important customer and, along with other Asian countries like India and South Korea, is increasingly vital for the big oil producers around the Persian Gulf. Any slowing of these economies will sap demand for oil, hitting prices and the revenues that OPEC governments depend on. | China is Saudi Arabia’s most important customer and, along with other Asian countries like India and South Korea, is increasingly vital for the big oil producers around the Persian Gulf. Any slowing of these economies will sap demand for oil, hitting prices and the revenues that OPEC governments depend on. |
| OPEC is likely to make some cuts, Ms. Sen said, but that may not be enough to bolster skittish markets. | OPEC is likely to make some cuts, Ms. Sen said, but that may not be enough to bolster skittish markets. |
| “People are fearing the worst,” she said. | “People are fearing the worst,” she said. |
| Chinese oil demand already appears to have crashed as the lockdown of Wuhan and other cities and overall fear curb air travel, driving, trucking and factory use. Gary Ross, chief executive of Black Gold Investors, a New York trading and investment firm, estimates that Chinese oil demand over the last two weeks has been down around 2.5 million barrels a day, or close to 20 percent compared with the previous year. | Chinese oil demand already appears to have crashed as the lockdown of Wuhan and other cities and overall fear curb air travel, driving, trucking and factory use. Gary Ross, chief executive of Black Gold Investors, a New York trading and investment firm, estimates that Chinese oil demand over the last two weeks has been down around 2.5 million barrels a day, or close to 20 percent compared with the previous year. |
| Mr. Ross said that cutbacks in Chinese oil purchases were likely to ripple across the world, causing supplies to build up in the United States and Europe. | Mr. Ross said that cutbacks in Chinese oil purchases were likely to ripple across the world, causing supplies to build up in the United States and Europe. |
| At least for the short term, he said, the oil market has entered “a vicious circle of selling pressure with no hope in sight.” | At least for the short term, he said, the oil market has entered “a vicious circle of selling pressure with no hope in sight.” |
| Updated June 24, 2020 | |
| Scientists around the country have tried to identify everyday materials that do a good job of filtering microscopic particles. In recent tests, HEPA furnace filters scored high, as did vacuum cleaner bags, fabric similar to flannel pajamas and those of 600-count pillowcases. Other materials tested included layered coffee filters and scarves and bandannas. These scored lower, but still captured a small percentage of particles. | |
| A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico. | A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico. |
| The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth. | The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth. |
| The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave. | The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave. |
| So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. | So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. |
| Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. | Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. |
| A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. | A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. |
| The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. | The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. |
| Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. | Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. |
| If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) | If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) |
| If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. | If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. |
| There is much at stake for the big OPEC producers and Russia, as many of them depend on sales to China, particularly now that the United States has turned from major importer to exporter, largely because of shale production. | There is much at stake for the big OPEC producers and Russia, as many of them depend on sales to China, particularly now that the United States has turned from major importer to exporter, largely because of shale production. |
| In December, before the crisis hit, China imported nearly 11 million barrels of oil, comparable to the output of a major producer like Russia. A little more than half of Chinese supplies come from OPEC countries. Saudi Arabia was China’s largest supplier last year, averaging about 1.7 million barrels a day, or close to a quarter of Saudi exports, according to Energy Aspects. Russia was a close second, with Angola, Brazil and Iraq also feeding large volumes of crude to the Chinese economy. | In December, before the crisis hit, China imported nearly 11 million barrels of oil, comparable to the output of a major producer like Russia. A little more than half of Chinese supplies come from OPEC countries. Saudi Arabia was China’s largest supplier last year, averaging about 1.7 million barrels a day, or close to a quarter of Saudi exports, according to Energy Aspects. Russia was a close second, with Angola, Brazil and Iraq also feeding large volumes of crude to the Chinese economy. |
| Analysts say it might not be easy for OPEC to come up with an effective response. For one, it is difficult to predict how long the coronavirus crisis will last and how much damage it will do to the world economy. Also, output curbs on the order of 2.5 million barrels a day would be unusual for OPEC, because such a deep cut would require producers to absorb serious pain. It is also difficult to judge when Libyan volumes, now down about one million barrels a day because of political infighting, will return. | Analysts say it might not be easy for OPEC to come up with an effective response. For one, it is difficult to predict how long the coronavirus crisis will last and how much damage it will do to the world economy. Also, output curbs on the order of 2.5 million barrels a day would be unusual for OPEC, because such a deep cut would require producers to absorb serious pain. It is also difficult to judge when Libyan volumes, now down about one million barrels a day because of political infighting, will return. |
| The OPEC countries were already selling oil at relatively low volumes after the December agreement. For instance, OPEC exports for January were down about 700,000 barrels a day from the previous month, according to Kpler, a firm that tracks petroleum exports. | The OPEC countries were already selling oil at relatively low volumes after the December agreement. For instance, OPEC exports for January were down about 700,000 barrels a day from the previous month, according to Kpler, a firm that tracks petroleum exports. |
| OPEC seemed to be trying to prop up the market with talk of a meeting, analysts say, but this tactic did not work. Attendees at this week’s technical meeting are likely to hash out the supply and demand numbers in preparation for a decision on cuts. But it will probably be left to top leaders like President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia to sign off on final production cuts. | OPEC seemed to be trying to prop up the market with talk of a meeting, analysts say, but this tactic did not work. Attendees at this week’s technical meeting are likely to hash out the supply and demand numbers in preparation for a decision on cuts. But it will probably be left to top leaders like President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia to sign off on final production cuts. |
| Most of the big producers seem amenable to a high-level emergency gathering, but it may not be called until they agree on what to do. | Most of the big producers seem amenable to a high-level emergency gathering, but it may not be called until they agree on what to do. |
| “The worst thing would be to call a meeting and then not do something,” said Bhushan Bahree, an OPEC analyst at IHS Markit, a research firm. | “The worst thing would be to call a meeting and then not do something,” said Bhushan Bahree, an OPEC analyst at IHS Markit, a research firm. |