'Coronavirus Shock Could Push Europe Into a Downturn' diff viewer (13/14)

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Coronavirus Shock Could Push Europe Into a Downturn	Coronavirus Shock Could Push Europe Into a Downturn
2020-06-09 23:47:23 UTC	2020-06-13 05:37:11 UTC (3 days later)
FRANKFURT — So far, only scattered cases of the coronavirus have appeared in Europe, but the economic effects are proving harder to quarantine. The shock may be severe enough to push the vulnerable German economy, and perhaps the entire eurozone, into a recession.	FRANKFURT — So far, only scattered cases of the coronavirus have appeared in Europe, but the economic effects are proving harder to quarantine. The shock may be severe enough to push the vulnerable German economy, and perhaps the entire eurozone, into a recession.
That is the conclusion of a growing number of economists as it becomes clear that it will take weeks, at best, before the Chinese economy resumes its role as a prolific exporter of essential factory goods, and as an increasingly important consumer market for the rest of the world.	That is the conclusion of a growing number of economists as it becomes clear that it will take weeks, at best, before the Chinese economy resumes its role as a prolific exporter of essential factory goods, and as an increasingly important consumer market for the rest of the world.
“The longer it takes for production to resume, the higher the risks,” said Jörg Krämer, chief economist at Commerzbank in Frankfurt.	“The longer it takes for production to resume, the higher the risks,” said Jörg Krämer, chief economist at Commerzbank in Frankfurt.
For the chief executive of Daimler, one of Germany’s most prominent companies with several auto plants in China, the crisis is one of uncertainty.	For the chief executive of Daimler, one of Germany’s most prominent companies with several auto plants in China, the crisis is one of uncertainty.
“I’m calling China every day,” Ola Källenius said at a news conference in Stuttgart on Tuesday. “It’s too early to say if and how other factories could be affected. We are talking about global networks.”	“I’m calling China every day,” Ola Källenius said at a news conference in Stuttgart on Tuesday. “It’s too early to say if and how other factories could be affected. We are talking about global networks.”
The rest of the world could also suffer economically, the Federal Reserve chair, Jerome H. Powell, warned lawmakers on Tuesday.	The rest of the world could also suffer economically, the Federal Reserve chair, Jerome H. Powell, warned lawmakers on Tuesday.
“We are closely monitoring the emergence of the coronavirus, which could lead to disruptions in China that spill over to the rest of the global economy,” Mr. Powell told House Financial Services Committee members.	“We are closely monitoring the emergence of the coronavirus, which could lead to disruptions in China that spill over to the rest of the global economy,” Mr. Powell told House Financial Services Committee members.
A dismal profit report by Daimler on Tuesday underlined why it would not take much to shove the eurozone, the 19 European countries that use the euro, into a downturn. That would exacerbate a slump in global trade that was manifesting long before the coronavirus claimed its first victims.	A dismal profit report by Daimler on Tuesday underlined why it would not take much to shove the eurozone, the 19 European countries that use the euro, into a downturn. That would exacerbate a slump in global trade that was manifesting long before the coronavirus claimed its first victims.
Daimler said that it slipped into the red at the end of 2019, battered by the cost of adjusting to new technology and by penalties from diesel emissions cheating.	Daimler said that it slipped into the red at the end of 2019, battered by the cost of adjusting to new technology and by penalties from diesel emissions cheating.
Vehicles are Germany’s biggest export, as well as an important part of the national identity. Many economists predict that official data to be published Friday will show that the German economy shrank in the fourth quarter of 2019 because of a slump in manufacturing.	Vehicles are Germany’s biggest export, as well as an important part of the national identity. Many economists predict that official data to be published Friday will show that the German economy shrank in the fourth quarter of 2019 because of a slump in manufacturing.
The problems of German automakers reverberate around the Continent, because so many small and midsize parts suppliers in countries depend on them for sales. Italy’s economy shrank in the fourth quarter in part because its industrial north is closely linked to Germany.	The problems of German automakers reverberate around the Continent, because so many small and midsize parts suppliers in countries depend on them for sales. Italy’s economy shrank in the fourth quarter in part because its industrial north is closely linked to Germany.
“For most countries, Germany is the most important trading partner,” said Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING Germany. “If it starts to slow down, other countries will feel it.”	“For most countries, Germany is the most important trading partner,” said Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING Germany. “If it starts to slow down, other countries will feel it.”
Daimler reported a quarterly loss of 11 million euros, or $12 million, compared with a profit of €1.6 billion in the fourth quarter of 2018. The evaporating earnings put Daimler, the maker of Mercedes-Benz cars and trucks, in a weak position as it confronts the economic consequences of the coronavirus outbreak.	Daimler reported a quarterly loss of 11 million euros, or $12 million, compared with a profit of €1.6 billion in the fourth quarter of 2018. The evaporating earnings put Daimler, the maker of Mercedes-Benz cars and trucks, in a weak position as it confronts the economic consequences of the coronavirus outbreak.
Daimler and other carmakers were forced to keep their factories in China closed longer than planned after the Lunar New Year holiday, and the virus has kept people out of showrooms. On Monday, the company said it had begun gradually ramping up production at its Chinese factories.	Daimler and other carmakers were forced to keep their factories in China closed longer than planned after the Lunar New Year holiday, and the virus has kept people out of showrooms. On Monday, the company said it had begun gradually ramping up production at its Chinese factories.
But the situation remains tense and unpredictable. There is widespread concern that assembly lines around the world could be forced to shut down for lack of components made in China.	But the situation remains tense and unpredictable. There is widespread concern that assembly lines around the world could be forced to shut down for lack of components made in China.
China has become a critical market for all German carmakers. Daimler sold nearly 700,000 Mercedes-Benz cars in China last year, more than twice as many as it sold in the United States.	China has become a critical market for all German carmakers. Daimler sold nearly 700,000 Mercedes-Benz cars in China last year, more than twice as many as it sold in the United States.
For the full year, net profit at Daimler plummeted 64 percent to €2.7 billion. Sales in 2019 rose 3 percent, to €173 billion.	For the full year, net profit at Daimler plummeted 64 percent to €2.7 billion. Sales in 2019 rose 3 percent, to €173 billion.
“The coronavirus provides a substantial risk for the expected global recovery, as hopes were pinned on an improvement of the Chinese economy,” Stefan Schneider, an economist at Deutsche Bank, said in a note to clients on Tuesday. A recession in Germany early this year is “quite probable,” Mr. Schneider added.	“The coronavirus provides a substantial risk for the expected global recovery, as hopes were pinned on an improvement of the Chinese economy,” Stefan Schneider, an economist at Deutsche Bank, said in a note to clients on Tuesday. A recession in Germany early this year is “quite probable,” Mr. Schneider added.
Smaller companies are also affected. Many have factories in China that have been idle or operating far below capacity.	Smaller companies are also affected. Many have factories in China that have been idle or operating far below capacity.
Ziehl-Abegg, a German maker of industrial fans, has a factory in Shanghai with 450 workers who produce air-circulation systems for hospitals, among other things. The high-performance fans have been in high demand during the crisis.	Ziehl-Abegg, a German maker of industrial fans, has a factory in Shanghai with 450 workers who produce air-circulation systems for hospitals, among other things. The high-performance fans have been in high demand during the crisis.
~~Updated June 5, 2020~~	Updated June 12, 2020
	Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.	So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.	A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.	The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.	Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.
Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.	Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.	States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.	Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)	If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.	Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.	The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.	If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.	If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.
Nevertheless, Chinese authorities allowed only a skeleton crew on the site last week to fill orders from newly built hospitals in Wuhan, Shandong and Shenzhen, said Rainer Grill, a Ziehl-Abegg spokesman.	Nevertheless, Chinese authorities allowed only a skeleton crew on the site last week to fill orders from newly built hospitals in Wuhan, Shandong and Shenzhen, said Rainer Grill, a Ziehl-Abegg spokesman.
Even after the Shanghai factory was allowed to reopen this week, fewer than half of the employees reported to work. They were under orders to stay home because they had visited affected areas of China during the Lunar New Year.	Even after the Shanghai factory was allowed to reopen this week, fewer than half of the employees reported to work. They were under orders to stay home because they had visited affected areas of China during the Lunar New Year.
Every week that the Shanghai plant stays closed costs Ziehl-Abegg €2 million, Mr. Grill said.	Every week that the Shanghai plant stays closed costs Ziehl-Abegg €2 million, Mr. Grill said.