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As U.S. Deals With Taliban Rollout, Can the Afghan Side Stay Together? Countdown Begins to Possible End of U.S. War in Afghanistan
(about 1 hour later)
KABUL, Afghanistan — Having negotiated a historic peace deal with the Taliban, Zalmay Khalilzad, the chief American envoy, arrived in Kabul to prepare for the tightly choreographed rollout of a plan that could end America’s military presence and the long war in Afghanistan. KABUL, Afghanistan — The United States and the Taliban will start the clock early Saturday on a plan to end America’s longest war after more than 18 years, beginning with what they hope will be seven days of greatly reduced violence in Afghanistan.
What he found was another complication for a deal already fragile and often interrupted: The democratic Afghan state — which the initial deal hopes to bring to the table opposite the insurgents to chart the country’s future — was threatening to split over the results of a disputed election. If the weeklong, partial truce holds, the two sides have agreed, they will meet on Feb. 29 to sign an agreement laying out a timetable for the United States to withdraw its troops.
The first step of the conditional peace plan, a weeklong reduction in violence across Afghanistan that opens the way for the Taliban and the United States to sign their deal, went into effect just after midnight on Saturday amid tense political uncertainty. The pact is also meant to clear the way for peace talks involving the Taliban and the government in Kabul, and American officials point to the reduction in hostilities as the first link in a fragile chain of events that could deliver peace in Afghanistan after more than four decades of conflict.
The declaration on Tuesday that President Ashraf Ghani had won another five-year term after the results had been delayed for five months, has been challenged by his main opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, who accuses the election body of favoring the incumbent. Mr. Abdullah has also declared victory, and has called on his supporters to form their own government. But the Afghan government is deep in a political crisis after a bitterly disputed presidential election, with both sides declaring victory. With rival claimants to legitimacy, it is unclear who would negotiate with the Taliban, whether they would be prepared to enter talks while struggling to control the government, or what kind of mandate they would have.
Mr. Khalilzad, who has been on the road for nearly two months putting the final touches on the Taliban deal, has had to extend his stay in Kabul. He now shuttles in a convoy of armored vehicles between the heavily guarded homes of the divided elite in the Afghan capital, trying to keep their peace.
“The United States calls on all Afghans to seize this moment,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said, adding that the initial agreement would be signed on Feb. 29 if the reduction in violence held. U.S. negotiators demanded the seven-day reduction in violence, scheduled to go into effect after midnight on Saturday, as a public show of the Taliban’s good faith and its ability to control its fractious and scattered forces. Now it is the government in Kabul whose cohesion and command are more in doubt.
All along, progress in the yearlong peace talks was in a race with Afghanistan’s domestic elections cycle. Vote after vote has grown so messy and disputed that U.S. diplomats — who “I call on all Afghans to seize this opportunity,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo wrote on Twitter on Friday.
were unable to force an incumbent Afghan president seeking another term to delay the election — were essentially trying to push through a peace deal with the Taliban before another prolonged political crisis could complicate the equation. A previous attempt at a deal between the Taliban and the United States fell apart on the verge of completion in September, with a new outbreak of violence, and the same risk hangs over the latest try.
They almost completed a deal with the insurgents last fall that would have pushed back the election, but President Trump called off the talks on the eve of the signing last September. The election went ahead, the results have been disputed as predicted, and now the crisis is threatening to divide the Afghan side just as the Americans need them united across the table from the Taliban. And even if the carefully choreographed rollout of the agreement does presage the end of the American phase of the war, the plan might not spell the end of the war itself. President Trump is determined, one way or another, to reduce United States involvement in Afghanistan to a minimum, and the Taliban’s long-term commitment to compromise and power-sharing remains open to question.
Three days after Mr. Ghani was declared the winner, the U.S. government still has not issued a statement acknowledging his victory. The only public comments from the Americans hinted at concern of how the election result could affect the peace process. The United States is expected to keep a small special operations and intelligence force in Afghanistan after most troops have left.
“It is likely that these developments could add to the challenges Afghanistan faces, including the challenges of the peace process,” Molly Phee, Mr. Khalilzad’s deputy in the negotiations, said at an event at the U.S. Institute of Peace. “Our priority, and what we believe to be the priority of most Afghans, remains peace and the peace process.” Zalmay Khalilzad, the chief American negotiator, recently arrived in Kabul to prepare for the announcement of an agreement, to find a government that was threatening to split apart. He has been shuttling in a convoy of armed vehicles between the heavily guarded homes of the divided elite in Kabul, trying to keep the peace.
The showdown is pitting the technocratic Mr. Ghani and his circle of young advisers against some of the most hardened figures in recent Afghan history, all survivors of years of battles and deal-making. One of Mr. Abdullah’s key supporters is Gen. Abdul Rashid Dostum, a former strongman who until recently served as Mr. Ghani’s vice president. In September, Afghanistan held a presidential election marred by Taliban attacks and allegations of fraud and mismanagement. It was not until Tuesday — after nearly five months of delays, acrimonious disputes and a partial audit of the results — that the election commission declared that President Ashraf Ghani had won another five-year term.
General Dostum was the first to call for a parallel government and to urge protests in the northern provinces. He has a unified base in the north, and how far he is willing to push the crisis, and how much flexibility he shows, may help determine the course of the political crisis. His main opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, also declared victory, accusing the election body of favoring the incumbent, and called on his supporters to form their own government.
Mr. Khalilzad, who was expected to return to Doha to prepare for the signing ceremony, has extended his stay in Afghanistan to manage the political tensions. He has met repeatedly with Mr. Ghani and Mr. Abdullah, as well as all the other key political players. The U.S. government still has not acknowledged Mr. Ghani’s victory. The only public comment it has made on the results hinted at concern that the electoral mess might make matters worse.
He told a meeting of General Dostum’s party that the announcement of the election results had caught him by surprise, a party member said. Along with Gen. Austin S. Miller, the top American commander in Afghanistan, he urged the participants to ensure that political rallies don’t become violent. “It is likely that these developments could add to the challenges Afghanistan faces, including the challenges of the peace process,” Molly Phee, Mr. Khalilzad’s deputy in negotiations, said on Tuesday at the United States Institute of Peace, a government-funded policy group in Washington. “Our priority, and what we believe to be the priority of most Afghans, remains peace and the peace process.”
Analysts said domestic tensions were unlikely to affect the first step of the peace plan, as the United States had made violence reduction a priority. But the high-stakes political showdown is complicating the next steps, when the Taliban are expected to sit across from a unified negotiating team of other Afghans, including the government. After American officials tried and failed to persuade Mr. Ghani to postpone the election, the yearlong talks with the Taliban, primarily in Doha, Qatar, became a race against Afghanistan’s political calendar. Election after election has been so tainted that U.S. diplomats were essentially trying to rush through a peace deal with the Taliban before Afghanistan’s latest political crisis could complicate the equation.
“The U.S. has clearly put its weight on the peace issue, and that message is clear to all sides,” said Omar Sadr, assistant professor of political science at the American University of Afghanistan. “But the election issue has created a huge gap between the political sides, and that needs to be bridged in a very short time for this process to move forward — and I don’t know how that can happen without Khalilzad and the U.S. stepping in.” They almost finalized a deal with the insurgents last summer that would have pushed back the election, but President Trump called off the talks on the eve of the signing, and the vote went ahead.
Mr. Sadr said the Americans’ silence on the election results gives them room to maneuver in breaking the political crisis. The political showdown pits the technocratic Mr. Ghani and his circle of young advisers against some of the most hardened figures of the recent Afghan history, survivors of years of battle and deal-making. One of Mr. Abdullah’s key supporters is Gen. Abdul Rashid Dostum, who has been accused of an array of violent acts, and until recently served as Mr. Ghani’s vice president.
The violence reduction plan closely resembles a cease-fire, with some exceptions, officials said. General Dostum, who has one of the most unified bases of support in the north, was the first to call for a parallel government, and to urge protests and the announcement of governors in northern provinces. Mr. Abdullah’s fate could turn on how willing the general is to push the crisis, and how receptive he is to a deal with Mr. Ghani.
The Taliban have agreed to hold back attacks on cities, highways and major security outposts throughout the country for the next seven days. In return, the Afghan forces and the U.S. military, which has carried out extensive airstrikes in support of the Afghans in recent months, have agreed to hold back their operations. Mr. Khalilzad, who was expected to return to Doha to prepare for the signing ceremony, has extended his stay in Afghanistan to manage the political tensions, meeting repeatedly with Mr. Ghani, Mr. Abdullah and other key political players.
In preparation for the start of violence reduction, Mr. Ghani has met with provincial security and political leaders. He told one group that the Taliban carry out about 80 attacks a day. A reduction to about 10 attacks would be seen as successful. Late on Thursday, Mr. Khalilzad told a meeting of General Dostum’s party that the announcement of election results had caught him by surprise, according to one participant. He and Gen. Austin S. Miller, the top American commander in Afghanistan, urged the participants to make sure that political rallies don’t turn to violence.
“Our brave security and defense forces will only act in defense of themselves and the honorable people of Afghanistan,” Mr. Ghani said in a televised address late Friday, declaring that the agreement would go into effect after midnight. Analysts said the conflict was unlikely to affect the first steps of the peace process, as U.S. officials had made it clear to everyone that their priority was starting the violence reduction. But the high-stakes political showdown would make it difficult to move on to the next phase, when a unified negotiating team that includes the Afghan government is expected to sit across from the Taliban.
Taliban leaders seemed to have a more difficult task, scrambling to get their message of violence reduction down to field units in what has become an increasingly decentralized force. “The U.S. has clearly put its weight on the peace issue, and that message is clear to all sides — with President Ghani agreeing to reduction of violence — there is a consensus among the parties,” said Omar Sadr, an assistant professor of political science at the American University of Afghanistan.
In private WhatsApp messages, their commanders are taking pains to strike a balance: They want their men to hold fire and not attack, but also to stay vigilant because this is not a cease-fire. The group has long feared that a full cease-fire could divide their ranks and make remobilizing difficult if the peace process fell through. “But the election issue has created a huge gap between the political sides and that needs to be bridged in a very short time for this process to move forward,” he added. “And I don’t know how that can happen without Khalilzad and the U.S. stepping in.”
Mr. Sadr said the Americans remaining quiet on the election results gives them “maneuver room” to broker a settlement to the political crisis — which could provide leverage to make sure the peace process doesn’t fall apart.
The seven-day violence reduction being rolled out closely resembles a cease-fire, barring some exceptions, officials said.
The Taliban has agreed to hold back attacks on cities, highways, and major security outposts throughout the country. In return, Afghan government forces and the U.S. military, which has stepped up airstrikes in the last year, have agreed to hold back their operations.
In preparation for the start of the violence reduction, President Ghani has been meeting all provincial security and political leaders in recent days. He told one group that the Taliban currently carry out about 80 attacks a day, and that a reduction to about 10 attacks would be seen as a successful implementation.
“Our brave security and defense forces will only act in defense of themselves and the honorable people of Afghanistan,” he said in a televised address late on Friday.
Taliban leaders scrambled to get their message of minimizing violence to the lowest units of what has increasingly been a decentralized force.
In private WhatsApp messages, Taliban commanders can be heard taking pains to strike a nuance: they want fighters to hold fire and not attack, but to stay vigilant in their positions and not venture into cities and government territory.
The group has long feared that a full cease-fire could divide its ranks and make remobilizing difficult if the peace process crumbled and all-out fighting resumed.
Najim Rahim contributed reporting.Najim Rahim contributed reporting.