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| Live Updates Ahead of Tonight’s Democratic Debate in South Carolina | Live Updates Ahead of Tonight’s Democratic Debate in South Carolina |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| The South Carolina primary, where 54 delegates are at stake, is on Saturday. | The South Carolina primary, where 54 delegates are at stake, is on Saturday. |
| Last week’s debate in Las Vegas was the fiercest yet as candidates took more personal swipes at one another. With the addition of Michael R. Bloomberg, that debate set a TV ratings record. | Last week’s debate in Las Vegas was the fiercest yet as candidates took more personal swipes at one another. With the addition of Michael R. Bloomberg, that debate set a TV ratings record. |
| Seven Democratic candidates qualified for the debate on Tuesday: former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr.; Mr. Bloomberg, the former mayor of New York City; former Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Ind.; Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota; Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont; Tom Steyer, a billionaire businessman; and Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. | Seven Democratic candidates qualified for the debate on Tuesday: former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr.; Mr. Bloomberg, the former mayor of New York City; former Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Ind.; Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota; Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont; Tom Steyer, a billionaire businessman; and Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. |
| The moderators are Norah O’Donnell and Gayle King. Margaret Brennan of “Face the Nation,” Major Garrett and Bill Whitaker of “60 Minutes” will join in with questions. | The moderators are Norah O’Donnell and Gayle King. Margaret Brennan of “Face the Nation,” Major Garrett and Bill Whitaker of “60 Minutes” will join in with questions. |
| The New York Times will have extensive debate coverage, including a live analysis throughout the event. | The New York Times will have extensive debate coverage, including a live analysis throughout the event. |
| It’s hard to imagine a worse showing for a presidential candidate appearing in his first debate than the one Mr. Bloomberg had last week. That’s the good news for him. The bar is relatively low tonight. And inside his campaign, the prevailing view is that despite the weak performance — some aides described him as nervous, restrained, out-of-practice and seriously underwhelming — it was not the fatal blow that his opponents were high-fiving about. | It’s hard to imagine a worse showing for a presidential candidate appearing in his first debate than the one Mr. Bloomberg had last week. That’s the good news for him. The bar is relatively low tonight. And inside his campaign, the prevailing view is that despite the weak performance — some aides described him as nervous, restrained, out-of-practice and seriously underwhelming — it was not the fatal blow that his opponents were high-fiving about. |
| But for Mr. Bloomberg to avoid slipping into irrelevance, he needs a breakout debate. Any candidate in his position will try to prove wrong the skeptics and doubters — those who say that Mr. Bloomberg, at 78 and a decade into retirement as a politician, no longer has what it takes. | But for Mr. Bloomberg to avoid slipping into irrelevance, he needs a breakout debate. Any candidate in his position will try to prove wrong the skeptics and doubters — those who say that Mr. Bloomberg, at 78 and a decade into retirement as a politician, no longer has what it takes. |
| He also will try to prove to the people who support him or are considering him on Super Tuesday — when he will appear on ballots for the first time — that he is what he has been telling them he is. All along, Mr. Bloomberg has sold himself as the “un-Trump,” as he calls it — the only person in the race capable of going toe-to-toe with the president. Mr. Bloomberg likes to say that he has dealt with “bullies like Donald Trump all my life in New York.” The debate stands as his chance to show voters he can really push back. | He also will try to prove to the people who support him or are considering him on Super Tuesday — when he will appear on ballots for the first time — that he is what he has been telling them he is. All along, Mr. Bloomberg has sold himself as the “un-Trump,” as he calls it — the only person in the race capable of going toe-to-toe with the president. Mr. Bloomberg likes to say that he has dealt with “bullies like Donald Trump all my life in New York.” The debate stands as his chance to show voters he can really push back. |
| For months, Mr. Biden, his campaign and his allies have bet that the former vice president will land a resounding victory in the South Carolina primary, powered by strong support from African-American voters. But in the final weeks before the contest, Mr. Biden’s standing in the state has slipped and he now faces a race that is far more competitive than many of his supporters expected. | For months, Mr. Biden, his campaign and his allies have bet that the former vice president will land a resounding victory in the South Carolina primary, powered by strong support from African-American voters. But in the final weeks before the contest, Mr. Biden’s standing in the state has slipped and he now faces a race that is far more competitive than many of his supporters expected. |
| He still has many prominent allies in South Carolina, and Representative James E. Clyburn, the most influential Democrat in the state, appears poised to endorse him. But he needs to do everything possible to blunt Mr. Sanders’s momentum, starting with an energetic debate performance on Tuesday night. In a state he once considered his firewall, can he land some effective hits on his chief rival and persuade voters on the fence to stick with him? | He still has many prominent allies in South Carolina, and Representative James E. Clyburn, the most influential Democrat in the state, appears poised to endorse him. But he needs to do everything possible to blunt Mr. Sanders’s momentum, starting with an energetic debate performance on Tuesday night. In a state he once considered his firewall, can he land some effective hits on his chief rival and persuade voters on the fence to stick with him? |
| Three days after Saturday’s South Carolina primary, 14 states will vote on Super Tuesday, a series of races that account for about one-third of total delegate allocation. How the candidates fare onstage could have significant implications for their standing in those states the following week. | Three days after Saturday’s South Carolina primary, 14 states will vote on Super Tuesday, a series of races that account for about one-third of total delegate allocation. How the candidates fare onstage could have significant implications for their standing in those states the following week. |
| For Mr. Bloomberg in particular, who is not even contesting South Carolina but is anchoring his campaign in Super Tuesday races, the debate will test whether he can deliver a steadier performance and calm supporters’ nerves after a disastrous first showing onstage last week. For Mr. Sanders, fresh off a strong victory in Nevada, a debate in which he looks to be a focus of attacks will test the durability of his support in upcoming states. And for the others onstage, the debate will offer a chance to generate some momentum headed into the South Carolina contest and then the Super Tuesday states — if any of them can land a breakout moment. | For Mr. Bloomberg in particular, who is not even contesting South Carolina but is anchoring his campaign in Super Tuesday races, the debate will test whether he can deliver a steadier performance and calm supporters’ nerves after a disastrous first showing onstage last week. For Mr. Sanders, fresh off a strong victory in Nevada, a debate in which he looks to be a focus of attacks will test the durability of his support in upcoming states. And for the others onstage, the debate will offer a chance to generate some momentum headed into the South Carolina contest and then the Super Tuesday states — if any of them can land a breakout moment. |
| South Carolina’s first-in-the-South positioning makes this weekend’s debate and primary especially important. For all candidates, it is their first time to show prowess among a large sector of black voters, who make up more than 60 percent of the South Carolina Democratic electorate and have historically been a predictor of who wins the Democratic nomination. Mr. Sanders would intimately know its importance: His low numbers among older black voters in particular blocked him from winning the nomination in 2016. | |
| This time around, the race looks more fluid. Aides to Mr. Biden have called black voters his electoral “firewall,” citing his longtime relationships in the state and proximity to former President Barack Obama. However, as Mr. Biden has stumbled in early states and other candidates, such as a surging Mr. Sanders and the billionaire Mr. Steyer, have invested heavily, some cracks are beginning to show. | |
| It is quite simple: If Mr. Biden wins South Carolina by wide margins, his campaign will claim it as a sign of revival. If not, and the once promised firewall looks split across voters, it could be his final blow. | |
| One of the many confounding parts of Ms. Warren’s candidacy has been her inability to grow support among black and Latino Democrats despite significant investment. She was a nonfactor among Latino voters in Nevada, as Mr. Sanders swept to victory, and she needs to improve her low standing among black voters to become a serious contender in this nomination process. | One of the many confounding parts of Ms. Warren’s candidacy has been her inability to grow support among black and Latino Democrats despite significant investment. She was a nonfactor among Latino voters in Nevada, as Mr. Sanders swept to victory, and she needs to improve her low standing among black voters to become a serious contender in this nomination process. |
| Her campaign has tried to play down the weak results from the Nevada caucuses, saying that too many people voted before her much-lauded debate performance could influence them. However, with another debate and just two days in between the South Carolina primary and the all-important Super Tuesday, where a large number of delegates will be distributed, Ms. Warren needs to turn moral victories into actual victories at the ballot box. | Her campaign has tried to play down the weak results from the Nevada caucuses, saying that too many people voted before her much-lauded debate performance could influence them. However, with another debate and just two days in between the South Carolina primary and the all-important Super Tuesday, where a large number of delegates will be distributed, Ms. Warren needs to turn moral victories into actual victories at the ballot box. |
| Ms. Warren has chiefly sought to appeal to black voters with policies that target racial discrimination and injustice. However, with Mr. Sanders dominating among younger voters and more moderate candidates appealing to the older crowd, Ms. Warren must find a way to break the ideological squeeze that has hurt her candidacy for months. | Ms. Warren has chiefly sought to appeal to black voters with policies that target racial discrimination and injustice. However, with Mr. Sanders dominating among younger voters and more moderate candidates appealing to the older crowd, Ms. Warren must find a way to break the ideological squeeze that has hurt her candidacy for months. |
| As a top adviser to Mr. Sanders said over the weekend, “There are a lot of knives out for Bernie Sanders.” | As a top adviser to Mr. Sanders said over the weekend, “There are a lot of knives out for Bernie Sanders.” |
| After finishing at the top in Iowa, narrowly winning New Hampshire and dominating in Nevada, Mr. Sanders has undeniably taken the pole position in the Democratic primary race. His rivals aren’t happy about it. They have already started to knock him much more forcefully than ever before — for his record on gun control, for his political ideology, for his recent praise for aspects of Fidel Castro’s leadership. | After finishing at the top in Iowa, narrowly winning New Hampshire and dominating in Nevada, Mr. Sanders has undeniably taken the pole position in the Democratic primary race. His rivals aren’t happy about it. They have already started to knock him much more forcefully than ever before — for his record on gun control, for his political ideology, for his recent praise for aspects of Fidel Castro’s leadership. |
| But the debate will provide them with a national stage to hammer the senator from Vermont, and it’s a safe bet to say they will use it. Will Mr. Sanders be ready? | But the debate will provide them with a national stage to hammer the senator from Vermont, and it’s a safe bet to say they will use it. Will Mr. Sanders be ready? |
| His campaign hopes so, and he has been actively preparing for such criticism. But he has never been the lone front-runner on a debate stage before, and it will be an unfamiliar test. | His campaign hopes so, and he has been actively preparing for such criticism. But he has never been the lone front-runner on a debate stage before, and it will be an unfamiliar test. |
| Mr. Sanders may also do some of his own punching. In recent days he has forcefully gone after Mr. Bloomberg, with whom he has traded barbs relentlessly. Each views the other as his biggest threat to the nomination, but they are also each other’s perfect foil. It could get messy out there. | Mr. Sanders may also do some of his own punching. In recent days he has forcefully gone after Mr. Bloomberg, with whom he has traded barbs relentlessly. Each views the other as his biggest threat to the nomination, but they are also each other’s perfect foil. It could get messy out there. |
| Mr. Buttigieg has been the second-biggest spender on advertising in South Carolina, behind only Mr. Steyer. (Mr. Bloomberg, the biggest spender nationally, isn’t on the ballot on Saturday and isn’t advertising.) Many of those ads have been aimed at the African-American voters who remain skeptical of him. The latest NBC News/Marist Poll had him winning just 4 percent of the black vote among likely Democratic primary voters and 9 percent over all, putting him in a virtual tie with Ms. Warren for fourth place. | Mr. Buttigieg has been the second-biggest spender on advertising in South Carolina, behind only Mr. Steyer. (Mr. Bloomberg, the biggest spender nationally, isn’t on the ballot on Saturday and isn’t advertising.) Many of those ads have been aimed at the African-American voters who remain skeptical of him. The latest NBC News/Marist Poll had him winning just 4 percent of the black vote among likely Democratic primary voters and 9 percent over all, putting him in a virtual tie with Ms. Warren for fourth place. |
| But the debate will be an opportunity for many in the state to hear from Mr. Buttigieg in a form other than a carefully scripted paid message. It represents his biggest opportunity to convert wary black voters into supporters. He will no doubt be asked about his inability to connect with them, as he has in almost every other debate. | But the debate will be an opportunity for many in the state to hear from Mr. Buttigieg in a form other than a carefully scripted paid message. It represents his biggest opportunity to convert wary black voters into supporters. He will no doubt be asked about his inability to connect with them, as he has in almost every other debate. |
| Never have the stakes been higher for him, though. After all the money he spent trying to attract South Carolinians, he needs to emerge after Saturday’s vote with at least a modest showing among black voters. Without that, his opponents will pounce. Up until South Carolina, their claims that he could not win black support and unite the party were speculative. This primary will put some hard, irrefutable numbers on that. | Never have the stakes been higher for him, though. After all the money he spent trying to attract South Carolinians, he needs to emerge after Saturday’s vote with at least a modest showing among black voters. Without that, his opponents will pounce. Up until South Carolina, their claims that he could not win black support and unite the party were speculative. This primary will put some hard, irrefutable numbers on that. |
| After stringing together several strong debate performances, Ms. Klobuchar flopped in the Nevada debate last week, coming off as jittery and unable to withstand attacks from her rivals. With pressure mounting for her to drop out of the race — she finished sixth in Nevada, after Mr. Steyer — will she make a debate-stage comeback? | |
| In past debates, Ms. Klobuchar’s favorite target has been her fellow Midwestern moderate, Mr. Buttigieg. But last week, the two seemed like squabbling teenagers. “Are you trying to say that I’m dumb?” she spat at him at one point, her resentment never clearer. If she goes after him again, she risks looking petty — and it could turn off fickle moderate Democrats who are still trying to decide between her and the other moderates in the race. | |
| Yet some of her best moments on the debate stage have occurred at his expense, too. Remember when she dismissed him for being a “local official” and implied he was too inexperienced? | |
| The big question is which Klobuchar will show up tomorrow. Her candidacy may be riding on it. |