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'Rush' towards a third referendum 'Rush' towards a third referendum
(about 9 hours later)
By Vaughan Roderick Welsh affairs editor By Vaughan Roderick
The Queen opening the assembly in June 2007The Queen opening the assembly in June 2007
As consultation with voters begins on whether the Welsh assembly should have full law-making powers, Vaughan Roderick considers how likely another referendum is.
/>		 As consultation with voters begins on whether the Welsh assembly should have full law-making powers, the BBC's Welsh affairs editor considers the likelihood of another referendum.
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When the Welsh Assembly's presiding officer Dafydd Elis-Thomas declared that the 2006 Government of Wales Act had "settled the constitutional question for a generation" he probably knew he was being over-optimistic. When Welsh assembly Presiding Officer Dafydd Elis-Thomas declared that the 2006 Government of Wales Act had "settled the constitutional question for a generation" he probably knew he was being over-optimistic.
That act provided a means for the assembly to request the powers to make laws in specifically-defined areas from Westminster and created a mechanism to trigger a referendum to decide whether to grant the assembly full law-making powers in the fields for which it is responsible like health and education.That act provided a means for the assembly to request the powers to make laws in specifically-defined areas from Westminster and created a mechanism to trigger a referendum to decide whether to grant the assembly full law-making powers in the fields for which it is responsible like health and education.
Under either scenario Westminster would continue to make laws in non-devolved areas like criminal justice and immigration.Under either scenario Westminster would continue to make laws in non-devolved areas like criminal justice and immigration.
Even as experienced a politician as Lord Elis-Thomas could not have expected the assembly to move quite so quickly towards holding a referendum. With the Queen's signature barely dry on the act the referendum chatter began. Even as experienced a politician as Lord Elis-Thomas could not have expected the assembly to move quite so quickly towards holding a referendum. With the Queen's signature barely dry on the act the referendum chatter began.The decision facing the assembly then is not whether they can trigger a referendum but whether they should
The decision facing the assembly then is not whether they can trigger a referendum but whether they should
The rush towards a third devolution referendum has been driven by two factors, one political and one practical.The rush towards a third devolution referendum has been driven by two factors, one political and one practical.
The political drive comes from the presence of Plaid Cymru in government.The political drive comes from the presence of Plaid Cymru in government.
The promise of an early vote was the prize that Labour offered to lure Plaid into Rhodri Morgan's cabinet and to dissuade them from setting up their own ruling coalition with the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats.The promise of an early vote was the prize that Labour offered to lure Plaid into Rhodri Morgan's cabinet and to dissuade them from setting up their own ruling coalition with the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats.
The assembly has also been frustrated by the slow pace of progress in transferring the smaller parcels of powers, the so-called "LCO" (legislative competence order) system.The assembly has also been frustrated by the slow pace of progress in transferring the smaller parcels of powers, the so-called "LCO" (legislative competence order) system.
Various LCO's are proceeding through that system at a snail's pace. On current form, it would appear that going from announcing an intention to legislate to actually having a measure on the statute book could take as much as the full four years of an assembly term.Various LCO's are proceeding through that system at a snail's pace. On current form, it would appear that going from announcing an intention to legislate to actually having a measure on the statute book could take as much as the full four years of an assembly term.
Even with a 'yes' vote, the Scottish Parliament would still be more powerfulEven with a 'yes' vote, the Scottish Parliament would still be more powerful
To trigger a referendum requires the votes of 40 assembly members. To trigger a referendum requires the votes of 40 Assembly Members.
There is little doubt that number could easily be attained and while, in theory, the Welsh secretary or UK Parliament might block such a vote it is inconceivable that they would. There is little doubt that number could easily be attained and while, in theory, the Welsh secretary or parliament might block such a vote it is inconceivable that they would.
The decision facing the assembly then is not whether they can trigger a referendum but whether they should.The decision facing the assembly then is not whether they can trigger a referendum but whether they should.
The answer to that question depends on how they believe the Welsh people would vote.The answer to that question depends on how they believe the Welsh people would vote.
At the very least a referendum would only be triggered if assembly members believed there was a better than even chance of a "yes" vote.At the very least a referendum would only be triggered if assembly members believed there was a better than even chance of a "yes" vote.
It is often claimed that a "yes" vote would result in Wales having a "Scottish-style" parliament.It is often claimed that a "yes" vote would result in Wales having a "Scottish-style" parliament.
In truth, the assembly's title would not change and it would remain a less powerful body than its Edinburgh equivalent.In truth, the assembly's title would not change and it would remain a less powerful body than its Edinburgh equivalent.
England and Wales would continue to have a single legal system with "Welsh laws" slotted into it.England and Wales would continue to have a single legal system with "Welsh laws" slotted into it.
The assembly would not have the power to make fundamental changes to the system itself in the way that Holyrood does, because of the existence of a separate Scottish legal system. Nor would the assembly have the same power as Edinburgh to vary income tax rates.The assembly would not have the power to make fundamental changes to the system itself in the way that Holyrood does, because of the existence of a separate Scottish legal system. Nor would the assembly have the same power as Edinburgh to vary income tax rates.
Thorny issueThorny issue
It is also highly possible that the Scottish Parliament itself could have acquired additional powers by the time the beefed-up assembly came into being.It is also highly possible that the Scottish Parliament itself could have acquired additional powers by the time the beefed-up assembly came into being.
Nevertheless a post "yes vote" assembly would be a substantially more powerful body which raises a thorny issue that politicians are keen to avoid.Nevertheless a post "yes vote" assembly would be a substantially more powerful body which raises a thorny issue that politicians are keen to avoid.
There are serious doubts about whether the current 60 member assembly can effectively carry out even its current duties let alone any additional ones. There are serious doubts about whether the current 60-member assembly can effectively carry out even its current duties let alone any additional ones.
The design of the Senedd chamber allows for an additional 20 seats and, privately, most AMs believe that those seats need to be filled.The design of the Senedd chamber allows for an additional 20 seats and, privately, most AMs believe that those seats need to be filled.
It is highly unlikely though that the Welsh electorate would support such an increase, even if it was partly offset by a cut in the number of Welsh MPs.It is highly unlikely though that the Welsh electorate would support such an increase, even if it was partly offset by a cut in the number of Welsh MPs.
The All Wales Convention will hold the first of a series of public consultation meetings at the Seaside Social and Labour Club in Port Talbot on Wednesday, 14 January, (1830 - 2030 GMT). There will be similar events in all Welsh counties, ending in Cardiff in June.The All Wales Convention will hold the first of a series of public consultation meetings at the Seaside Social and Labour Club in Port Talbot on Wednesday, 14 January, (1830 - 2030 GMT). There will be similar events in all Welsh counties, ending in Cardiff in June.