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Coronavirus Shows the Problem With Trump’s Stock Market Boasting Coronavirus Shows the Problem With Trump’s Stock Market Boasting
(about 20 hours later)
There’s a reason most presidents are cautious when talking about the stock market. President Trump is learning it the hard way this week.There’s a reason most presidents are cautious when talking about the stock market. President Trump is learning it the hard way this week.
He is, in effect, experiencing the downside of having spent the last three years personalizing much of what happens in the markets and the economy, saying that the soaring stock values under his watch are a reflection of his special ability, and a central part of his case for re-election in November.He is, in effect, experiencing the downside of having spent the last three years personalizing much of what happens in the markets and the economy, saying that the soaring stock values under his watch are a reflection of his special ability, and a central part of his case for re-election in November.
Most presidents avoid boasting about a rising stock market because they know how fragile it is, and how little control over stock prices they really have, and how stock prices can move sharply for reasons outside their control, or sometimes for no clear reason at all.Most presidents avoid boasting about a rising stock market because they know how fragile it is, and how little control over stock prices they really have, and how stock prices can move sharply for reasons outside their control, or sometimes for no clear reason at all.
The cost of claiming personal credit for stock market gains comes when you get stock market losses. And that is particularly relevant after an 8 percent drop in the S&P 500 since its peak last Wednesday, seemingly caused by a recognition on Wall Street that the spread of coronavirus could disrupt the world economy.The cost of claiming personal credit for stock market gains comes when you get stock market losses. And that is particularly relevant after an 8 percent drop in the S&P 500 since its peak last Wednesday, seemingly caused by a recognition on Wall Street that the spread of coronavirus could disrupt the world economy.
“I think the stock market is something I know a lot about,” President Trump said in a news conference Wednesday evening. “I think the stock market will recover. The economy is very strong.” He also said the stock market decline was partly a result of the Democratic presidential candidates’ rhetoric on the debate stage on Tuesday.“I think the stock market is something I know a lot about,” President Trump said in a news conference Wednesday evening. “I think the stock market will recover. The economy is very strong.” He also said the stock market decline was partly a result of the Democratic presidential candidates’ rhetoric on the debate stage on Tuesday.
The outbreak of the new type of coronavirus in China and its spread to other nations was not something Mr. Trump could have prevented. But even as public health officials start to warn that many Americans may become infected, the Trump administration has devoted lots of effort to talking up the stock market.The outbreak of the new type of coronavirus in China and its spread to other nations was not something Mr. Trump could have prevented. But even as public health officials start to warn that many Americans may become infected, the Trump administration has devoted lots of effort to talking up the stock market.
“Stock Market starting to look very good to me!” the president tweeted shortly after the market closed Monday afternoon after a 3.5 percent drop.“Stock Market starting to look very good to me!” the president tweeted shortly after the market closed Monday afternoon after a 3.5 percent drop.
It went on to drop an additional 3 percent on Tuesday and 0.4 percent Wednesday.It went on to drop an additional 3 percent on Tuesday and 0.4 percent Wednesday.
Wednesday morning, President Trump seemingly blamed the stock market sell-off on alarmist coverage by cable news networks and said the country was in great shape.Wednesday morning, President Trump seemingly blamed the stock market sell-off on alarmist coverage by cable news networks and said the country was in great shape.
If the sell-off continues, it could undermine a key pillar of the president’s re-election pitch. That might be less of an issue if Mr. Trump had not so frequently spoken of the stock market as a real-time barometer of his presidency’s success.If the sell-off continues, it could undermine a key pillar of the president’s re-election pitch. That might be less of an issue if Mr. Trump had not so frequently spoken of the stock market as a real-time barometer of his presidency’s success.
But there’s more at stake than public relations. There’s also the risk that the administration’s focus on the optics of the market distracts them from the bigger task at hand — trying to protect against the potential spread of disease and loss of life that would accompany a global pandemic.But there’s more at stake than public relations. There’s also the risk that the administration’s focus on the optics of the market distracts them from the bigger task at hand — trying to protect against the potential spread of disease and loss of life that would accompany a global pandemic.
Ideally, even economic officials who don’t have expertise in disease transmission would spend their time trying to understand what industries are likely to be heavily affected and whether government can do anything to help them work through the supply chain disruptions and other bad effects of the virus.Ideally, even economic officials who don’t have expertise in disease transmission would spend their time trying to understand what industries are likely to be heavily affected and whether government can do anything to help them work through the supply chain disruptions and other bad effects of the virus.
Tuesday afternoon, the chief White House economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, was interviewed on CNBC in the midst of the sell-off, and focused on talking up the markets.Tuesday afternoon, the chief White House economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, was interviewed on CNBC in the midst of the sell-off, and focused on talking up the markets.
“The virus story is not going to last forever,” he said on “The Exchange.” “To me, if you are an investor out there and you have a long-term point of view, I would suggest very seriously taking a look at the market; the stock market, that is a lot cheaper than it was a week or two ago.”“The virus story is not going to last forever,” he said on “The Exchange.” “To me, if you are an investor out there and you have a long-term point of view, I would suggest very seriously taking a look at the market; the stock market, that is a lot cheaper than it was a week or two ago.”
He then proceeded to suggest that fears that the virus would spread and cause major damage to the U.S. economy were misplaced.He then proceeded to suggest that fears that the virus would spread and cause major damage to the U.S. economy were misplaced.
Updated June 22, 2020 Updated June 24, 2020
Scientists around the country have tried to identify everyday materials that do a good job of filtering microscopic particles. In recent tests, HEPA furnace filters scored high, as did vacuum cleaner bags, fabric similar to flannel pajamas and those of 600-count pillowcases. Other materials tested included layered coffee filters and scarves and bandannas. These scored lower, but still captured a small percentage of particles.
A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico.A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico.
The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth.The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth.
The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave.The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave.
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.
“We have contained this,” Mr. Kudlow said. “I won’t say airtight, but it’s pretty close to airtight.”“We have contained this,” Mr. Kudlow said. “I won’t say airtight, but it’s pretty close to airtight.”
That’s not what public health officials said, in a briefing that same afternoon.That’s not what public health officials said, in a briefing that same afternoon.
“It’s not so much of a question of if this will happen anymore, but rather more of a question of exactly when this will happen,” said Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases.“It’s not so much of a question of if this will happen anymore, but rather more of a question of exactly when this will happen,” said Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases.
“We are asking the American public to prepare for the expectation that this could be bad,” she added.“We are asking the American public to prepare for the expectation that this could be bad,” she added.
The effort to set an optimistic tone on the markets was clearly at cross-purposes with what public health officials see as necessary to minimize the damage from a potential pandemic.The effort to set an optimistic tone on the markets was clearly at cross-purposes with what public health officials see as necessary to minimize the damage from a potential pandemic.
“It’s understandable that the administration, in an election year, is focused on keeping the stock market and the economy strong,” said Michael Steel, a partner at Hamilton Place Strategies and former spokesman for House Speaker John Boehner. “But they risk creating the impression that they’re more focused on the economic impact of the virus than effective public health measures.”“It’s understandable that the administration, in an election year, is focused on keeping the stock market and the economy strong,” said Michael Steel, a partner at Hamilton Place Strategies and former spokesman for House Speaker John Boehner. “But they risk creating the impression that they’re more focused on the economic impact of the virus than effective public health measures.”
Then there is the broader question of credibility. During the global financial crisis in 2008, White House and Treasury officials were acutely aware that if they seemed too boosterish in public comments on the crisis, it would undermine their credibility and the sense in markets that they were taking the threat seriously enough.Then there is the broader question of credibility. During the global financial crisis in 2008, White House and Treasury officials were acutely aware that if they seemed too boosterish in public comments on the crisis, it would undermine their credibility and the sense in markets that they were taking the threat seriously enough.
When the government announces some important good news toward resolving a crisis — whether it’s that banks have adequate capital or that a pandemic has been contained — you want people to believe it, which they will do only if the same government has been upfront about the realities of that crisis to begin with. Neither the president’s tweets nor Mr. Kudlow’s interviews suggest this administration is overly worried about this idea.When the government announces some important good news toward resolving a crisis — whether it’s that banks have adequate capital or that a pandemic has been contained — you want people to believe it, which they will do only if the same government has been upfront about the realities of that crisis to begin with. Neither the president’s tweets nor Mr. Kudlow’s interviews suggest this administration is overly worried about this idea.
Imagine a company facing a major crisis, like a safety recall of its products, which in turn causes a plunging stock price.Imagine a company facing a major crisis, like a safety recall of its products, which in turn causes a plunging stock price.
If the executive team devoted all its energy to going on TV to complain about the falling stock price, it probably wouldn’t do much good. If the team instead ignored the stock price for a while and tried to fix the safety problem and show consumers that the company was reliable, it still might take a while for the stock to recover, but eventually it probably would.If the executive team devoted all its energy to going on TV to complain about the falling stock price, it probably wouldn’t do much good. If the team instead ignored the stock price for a while and tried to fix the safety problem and show consumers that the company was reliable, it still might take a while for the stock to recover, but eventually it probably would.
The risk for the United States is that the Trump administration, given election-year politics and the president’s penchant for personalizing the markets, follows something more like the first strategy.The risk for the United States is that the Trump administration, given election-year politics and the president’s penchant for personalizing the markets, follows something more like the first strategy.