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Freaked Out by the Stock Market? Take a Deep Breath | Freaked Out by the Stock Market? Take a Deep Breath |
(about 1 hour later) | |
[This article is part of the developing coronavirus coverage, and may be outdated. Go here for the latest on the coronavirus.] | [This article is part of the developing coronavirus coverage, and may be outdated. Go here for the latest on the coronavirus.] |
Ignore predictions and seek perspective. | Ignore predictions and seek perspective. |
When the stock market falls, as it has all week, there is a natural desire to search for explanations and consult crystal balls. While the spread of the coronavirus has been a catalyst, nobody knows exactly why the market moved the way it did, including whether underlying economic troubles are contributing to the severity of the gyrations. And nobody can tell you how the virus will affect the United States, including whether the outbreak’s short-term economic impact will reduce long-term profits. | When the stock market falls, as it has all week, there is a natural desire to search for explanations and consult crystal balls. While the spread of the coronavirus has been a catalyst, nobody knows exactly why the market moved the way it did, including whether underlying economic troubles are contributing to the severity of the gyrations. And nobody can tell you how the virus will affect the United States, including whether the outbreak’s short-term economic impact will reduce long-term profits. |
And you are a long-term investor, right? | And you are a long-term investor, right? |
Most of us fall into that category, if we are saving for retirement. We invest in stocks because doing so has consistently proved to be a good way to buy a little piece of capitalism. Hold on long enough to a diverse collection of stocks, and the system has tended to generously repay patient people over six or seven decades of working, saving and drawing down a portfolio. | Most of us fall into that category, if we are saving for retirement. We invest in stocks because doing so has consistently proved to be a good way to buy a little piece of capitalism. Hold on long enough to a diverse collection of stocks, and the system has tended to generously repay patient people over six or seven decades of working, saving and drawing down a portfolio. |
Still, declines like the one investors experienced this week rarely feel good. And maybe you’re getting queasy about the economic implications of an outbreak that could force millions of Americans to shut themselves in for a while. If so, remind yourself of the following: Stocks are how your savings fight inflation, the market is not an absolute proxy for your personal finances, and you’re playing a long game — the very same points I raise every time we’ve worried about the stock market in recent years. | Still, declines like the one investors experienced this week rarely feel good. And maybe you’re getting queasy about the economic implications of an outbreak that could force millions of Americans to shut themselves in for a while. If so, remind yourself of the following: Stocks are how your savings fight inflation, the market is not an absolute proxy for your personal finances, and you’re playing a long game — the very same points I raise every time we’ve worried about the stock market in recent years. |
Isn’t it pretty? If you’ve been invested in the stock market for much of the past decade, all of that 180 percent-plus gain is yours on paper, even with a few rough days this week. | Isn’t it pretty? If you’ve been invested in the stock market for much of the past decade, all of that 180 percent-plus gain is yours on paper, even with a few rough days this week. |
This is amazing. | This is amazing. |
Bull markets generally don’t last this long. Maybe this is the end, and if it is, so be it. Stocks will fall 10 percent and flatline for a while. Or maybe they drop 20 percent. Or 40. But wherever they bottom out and start rising again is likely to be higher than the average price you paid for your stocks over the past 10 or 15 years. | Bull markets generally don’t last this long. Maybe this is the end, and if it is, so be it. Stocks will fall 10 percent and flatline for a while. Or maybe they drop 20 percent. Or 40. But wherever they bottom out and start rising again is likely to be higher than the average price you paid for your stocks over the past 10 or 15 years. |
When people are yelling on (or at) the television, it always helps to stop and remind yourself why they’re doing it. Many of those TV yellers are professional investors trying to time the markets by selling high and buying low or on dips. Your goal isn’t the same. | When people are yelling on (or at) the television, it always helps to stop and remind yourself why they’re doing it. Many of those TV yellers are professional investors trying to time the markets by selling high and buying low or on dips. Your goal isn’t the same. |
Your aim is to find a way to put your money in an investment that will grow over time at a rate that outpaces inflation. And you want to do that without taking on so much risk that it could all go to zero and stay there. | Your aim is to find a way to put your money in an investment that will grow over time at a rate that outpaces inflation. And you want to do that without taking on so much risk that it could all go to zero and stay there. |
Owning a big basket of stocks and paying very little for the privilege, say via an index mutual fund or exchange traded fund, is generally the best way to execute this strategy. | Owning a big basket of stocks and paying very little for the privilege, say via an index mutual fund or exchange traded fund, is generally the best way to execute this strategy. |
That’s not going to change any time soon, because capitalism isn’t going anywhere. (If you’re worried about so-called socialism, we’re a long way from a potential Bernie Sanders nomination or presidency — let alone the implementation of any policies that could fundamentally alter the stock market.) | That’s not going to change any time soon, because capitalism isn’t going anywhere. (If you’re worried about so-called socialism, we’re a long way from a potential Bernie Sanders nomination or presidency — let alone the implementation of any policies that could fundamentally alter the stock market.) |
The phrase “net worth” is wrongheaded, as if the only reasonable sum of our financial selves is assets minus liabilities. Next year may bring a big market bounce, or a pay raise, and your capacity for earning more ought to be part of the equation. Besides, net worth need not equal self worth. | The phrase “net worth” is wrongheaded, as if the only reasonable sum of our financial selves is assets minus liabilities. Next year may bring a big market bounce, or a pay raise, and your capacity for earning more ought to be part of the equation. Besides, net worth need not equal self worth. |
Nevertheless, a positive and rising dollar figure is a fine thing. So take a look at the other pieces on the asset side of your equation. A decent chunk of it might be home equity. Did that fall a lot in the last few days? No? Good. Do you expect your bond mutual funds to fall as far as any money in stocks might? Again, probably not. | Nevertheless, a positive and rising dollar figure is a fine thing. So take a look at the other pieces on the asset side of your equation. A decent chunk of it might be home equity. Did that fall a lot in the last few days? No? Good. Do you expect your bond mutual funds to fall as far as any money in stocks might? Again, probably not. |
Updated June 24, 2020 | |
Scientists around the country have tried to identify everyday materials that do a good job of filtering microscopic particles. In recent tests, HEPA furnace filters scored high, as did vacuum cleaner bags, fabric similar to flannel pajamas and those of 600-count pillowcases. Other materials tested included layered coffee filters and scarves and bandannas. These scored lower, but still captured a small percentage of particles. | |
A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico. | A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico. |
The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth. | The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth. |
The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave. | The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave. |
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. | So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. |
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. | Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. |
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. | A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. |
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. | The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. |
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. | Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. |
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) | If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) |
If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. | If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. |
Remember, stocks are just a part of what you’re worth. | Remember, stocks are just a part of what you’re worth. |
Stocks are for the long haul: There are several decades between graduation and retirement (or a couple of decades between the arrival of a new baby and college graduation). | Stocks are for the long haul: There are several decades between graduation and retirement (or a couple of decades between the arrival of a new baby and college graduation). |
If you’re on the cusp of retirement, keep in mind that the big idea here is to live at least 20 more years, which is usually plenty of time for stocks to bounce back from even an extended decline in the stock market. (And things can indeed look grim for a while, as they did between 2000 and 2010, when U.S. stock prices for the biggest companies more or less made no upward progress even if you were investing your dividends along the way.) | If you’re on the cusp of retirement, keep in mind that the big idea here is to live at least 20 more years, which is usually plenty of time for stocks to bounce back from even an extended decline in the stock market. (And things can indeed look grim for a while, as they did between 2000 and 2010, when U.S. stock prices for the biggest companies more or less made no upward progress even if you were investing your dividends along the way.) |
If college for your children is imminent or you’re building a down payment fund for a house purchase in the next year or two, you probably shouldn’t have much money in stocks. Do you have money in a target-date mutual fund as part of a 529 college savings plan? Check to see how much of it is invested in stocks — and whether that figure makes you comfortable. | If college for your children is imminent or you’re building a down payment fund for a house purchase in the next year or two, you probably shouldn’t have much money in stocks. Do you have money in a target-date mutual fund as part of a 529 college savings plan? Check to see how much of it is invested in stocks — and whether that figure makes you comfortable. |
If you’re in your 20s and just started investing in the past couple of years, I don’t envy you. | If you’re in your 20s and just started investing in the past couple of years, I don’t envy you. |
You may remember parents watching helplessly as half of their home equity and their retirement investments evaporated, at least on paper, after the 2008 financial crisis. If a parent also lost a job, and you took on perhaps more student loan debt than anyone in the family had hoped, it’s no wonder that you’d be reticent about investment risk. | You may remember parents watching helplessly as half of their home equity and their retirement investments evaporated, at least on paper, after the 2008 financial crisis. If a parent also lost a job, and you took on perhaps more student loan debt than anyone in the family had hoped, it’s no wonder that you’d be reticent about investment risk. |
A multiday decline, in your first few years of managing to put a bit of money away, can be harrowing. Putting long-term savings someplace safer is probably tempting, and perhaps it’s the only way for you to sleep better at night. But long-term returns in bonds will most likely be lower, so permanently moving money into them means you’ll need to save that much more to meet your goals. | A multiday decline, in your first few years of managing to put a bit of money away, can be harrowing. Putting long-term savings someplace safer is probably tempting, and perhaps it’s the only way for you to sleep better at night. But long-term returns in bonds will most likely be lower, so permanently moving money into them means you’ll need to save that much more to meet your goals. |
Smartphone news notifications and television chyrons are insistent, and they suggest a kind of urgency. Even if they don’t explicitly say you should act now, it’s easy to feel that immediate action is necessary. | Smartphone news notifications and television chyrons are insistent, and they suggest a kind of urgency. Even if they don’t explicitly say you should act now, it’s easy to feel that immediate action is necessary. |
It isn’t. Not today, and probably not tomorrow, either. Plenty of people reading this will spend 75 years in the stock market, more if you count any college savings your parents invested for you when you were an infant. | It isn’t. Not today, and probably not tomorrow, either. Plenty of people reading this will spend 75 years in the stock market, more if you count any college savings your parents invested for you when you were an infant. |
So, stop. Think. Talk to someone with more experience, or a sober-minded approach. Shift a bit of your portfolio to cash if it helps your anxiety. But drastic investment moves are sensible only when there have been drastic changes in your life, like a big new job or consequential medical news. And that hasn’t happened for most of us this week. | So, stop. Think. Talk to someone with more experience, or a sober-minded approach. Shift a bit of your portfolio to cash if it helps your anxiety. But drastic investment moves are sensible only when there have been drastic changes in your life, like a big new job or consequential medical news. And that hasn’t happened for most of us this week. |
Matt Phillips contributed reporting. | Matt Phillips contributed reporting. |