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Stocks Surge as Central Banks Vow to Act on Coronavirus Impact Stocks Surge as Central Banks Vow to Act on Coronavirus
(about 4 hours later)
Stocks surged in the final minutes of trading on Monday, snapping back from one of the worst weeks for global markets since the 2008 financial crisis as investors seized on promises that the world’s governments would step in to help if the global economy was slammed by the outbreak of the coronavirus.Stocks surged in the final minutes of trading on Monday, snapping back from one of the worst weeks for global markets since the 2008 financial crisis as investors seized on promises that the world’s governments would step in to help if the global economy was slammed by the outbreak of the coronavirus.
The S&P 500 jumped 4.6 percent, the biggest single-day leap since late December 2018. The rally followed news that central bankers from the world’s biggest economies would join a conference call with Group of 7 finance ministers on Tuesday to discuss a response to the outbreak, fueling expectations among investors that governments might lower interest rates in tandem.The S&P 500 jumped 4.6 percent, the biggest single-day leap since late December 2018. The rally followed news that central bankers from the world’s biggest economies would join a conference call with Group of 7 finance ministers on Tuesday to discuss a response to the outbreak, fueling expectations among investors that governments might lower interest rates in tandem.
“It has already stoked expectations of a coordinated cut,” Roberto Perli, a former Fed researcher who is now an economist at Cornerstone Macro, said in an email. “If it doesn’t happen, it will only add to market volatility.”“It has already stoked expectations of a coordinated cut,” Roberto Perli, a former Fed researcher who is now an economist at Cornerstone Macro, said in an email. “If it doesn’t happen, it will only add to market volatility.”
But Mr. Perli did not see it as a sign that a simultaneous cut with other global central banks was necessarily coming. Nor did Seth Carpenter, another former Fed researcher, now at UBS. “The rally in equities today has perversely probably made it easier for the Fed to sit back and wait to see what happens,” he said in an email.But Mr. Perli did not see it as a sign that a simultaneous cut with other global central banks was necessarily coming. Nor did Seth Carpenter, another former Fed researcher, now at UBS. “The rally in equities today has perversely probably made it easier for the Fed to sit back and wait to see what happens,” he said in an email.
Early Monday, both the Bank of Japan and Bank of England pledged to monitor markets closely and safeguard financial stability. Later, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank issued a joint statement saying that the groups stood ready to help “address the human tragedy and economic challenge” posed by the virus, and the European Central Bank said it “stands ready” to respond to signs of a slowdown.Early Monday, both the Bank of Japan and Bank of England pledged to monitor markets closely and safeguard financial stability. Later, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank issued a joint statement saying that the groups stood ready to help “address the human tragedy and economic challenge” posed by the virus, and the European Central Bank said it “stands ready” to respond to signs of a slowdown.
“Throughout the world you are seeing clearly a policy response,” said Rich Ross, a managing director at Evercore ISI. “That’s what’s helping to buoy the market.”“Throughout the world you are seeing clearly a policy response,” said Rich Ross, a managing director at Evercore ISI. “That’s what’s helping to buoy the market.”
As health officials have raced to contain the outbreak, factories have been shut and businesses squeezed across the globe. Companies are also readjusting annual profit expectations, and economists are lowering forecasts for global growth.As health officials have raced to contain the outbreak, factories have been shut and businesses squeezed across the globe. Companies are also readjusting annual profit expectations, and economists are lowering forecasts for global growth.
Shares in Europe also recovered from losses, and most indexes in Asia ended higher. Still, bond yields fell to fresh record lows on Monday, suggesting that despite the stock rally, investors were looking for safe havens. Yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell to 1.09 percent.Shares in Europe also recovered from losses, and most indexes in Asia ended higher. Still, bond yields fell to fresh record lows on Monday, suggesting that despite the stock rally, investors were looking for safe havens. Yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell to 1.09 percent.
President Trump continued his browbeating of the Federal Reserve on Monday, saying the Fed chair, Jerome H. Powell, and his colleagues should quickly slash interest rates as the economic risk posed by the coronavirus becomes more stark.President Trump continued his browbeating of the Federal Reserve on Monday, saying the Fed chair, Jerome H. Powell, and his colleagues should quickly slash interest rates as the economic risk posed by the coronavirus becomes more stark.
“As usual, Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve are slow to act,” he wrote on Twitter. “Germany and others are pumping money into their economies. Other Central Banks are much more aggressive. The U.S. should have, for all of the right reasons, the lowest Rate.”
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“As usual, Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve are slow to act,” he wrote on Twitter. “Germany and others are pumping money into their economies. Other Central Banks are much more aggressive. The U.S. should have, for all of the right reasons, the lowest Rate.”
The Fed has begun signaling that a rate cut is likely, and most market participants fully expect a cut at its next policy meeting on March 17 and 18, if not before.The Fed has begun signaling that a rate cut is likely, and most market participants fully expect a cut at its next policy meeting on March 17 and 18, if not before.
On Friday, Mr. Powell took the rare step of issuing a statement saying that the Fed was prepared to act “as appropriate to support the economy.”On Friday, Mr. Powell took the rare step of issuing a statement saying that the Fed was prepared to act “as appropriate to support the economy.”
But the Fed can cut only so much, given interest rates are already low, at a range between 1.5 percent and 1.75 percent. Most market participants expect a 50-basis-point cut in March, with some predicting an overall cut this year of 100 basis points — or 1 percent.But the Fed can cut only so much, given interest rates are already low, at a range between 1.5 percent and 1.75 percent. Most market participants expect a 50-basis-point cut in March, with some predicting an overall cut this year of 100 basis points — or 1 percent.
The European Central Bank, which runs monetary policy for Germany and other eurozone countries, has joined most of its global counterparts in simply signaling vigilance in response to the virus. It was already buying bonds as part of an easing program.The European Central Bank, which runs monetary policy for Germany and other eurozone countries, has joined most of its global counterparts in simply signaling vigilance in response to the virus. It was already buying bonds as part of an easing program.
The Trump administration is grappling with whether to encourage the export of critical medical products like face masks and surgical gear to China — or save those supplies for the United States.The Trump administration is grappling with whether to encourage the export of critical medical products like face masks and surgical gear to China — or save those supplies for the United States.
In a notice issued to American businesses last week, the Commerce Department advertised a change in Chinese regulations that would temporarily make it easier for American businesses to export medical products that are useful in battling the coronavirus to China, including protective gear, hand sanitizers and mask manufacturing machines.In a notice issued to American businesses last week, the Commerce Department advertised a change in Chinese regulations that would temporarily make it easier for American businesses to export medical products that are useful in battling the coronavirus to China, including protective gear, hand sanitizers and mask manufacturing machines.
The notice came under fire from Lloyd Doggett, a Democratic congressman from Texas, who said that it “seemingly conflicts” with congressional testimony by Alex Azar, the health secretary, who said that there was a shortage of face masks for medical professionals to use in the event of a coronavirus epidemic in the United States.The notice came under fire from Lloyd Doggett, a Democratic congressman from Texas, who said that it “seemingly conflicts” with congressional testimony by Alex Azar, the health secretary, who said that there was a shortage of face masks for medical professionals to use in the event of a coronavirus epidemic in the United States.
“Consistent with Trump downplaying the severity of this crisis, his Commerce Department is encouraging the export of the very protective gear already in short supply,” Mr. Doggett said in a statement.“Consistent with Trump downplaying the severity of this crisis, his Commerce Department is encouraging the export of the very protective gear already in short supply,” Mr. Doggett said in a statement.
The Commerce Department did not immediately respond. But internal department communications obtained by Mr. Doggett’s office appeared to show that the department had second thoughts about the flyer.The Commerce Department did not immediately respond. But internal department communications obtained by Mr. Doggett’s office appeared to show that the department had second thoughts about the flyer.
“Please keep China procurement service flyer internal,” said the subject line of an email from the department’s domestic health care team. “I got a little too eager to promote it — please hold close until we receive an updated version. More info to come,” the email read.“Please keep China procurement service flyer internal,” said the subject line of an email from the department’s domestic health care team. “I got a little too eager to promote it — please hold close until we receive an updated version. More info to come,” the email read.
A major multinational economic group cut its outlook for 2020 as coronavirus cases show up around the globe, suggesting that global growth could be cut in half if infections spread more widely outside China.A major multinational economic group cut its outlook for 2020 as coronavirus cases show up around the globe, suggesting that global growth could be cut in half if infections spread more widely outside China.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said that if the outbreak swept widely through the Asia-Pacific region, Europe and North America, global growth could fall to 1.5 percent this year, far less than the 3 percent it had projected before the virus surfaced.The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said that if the outbreak swept widely through the Asia-Pacific region, Europe and North America, global growth could fall to 1.5 percent this year, far less than the 3 percent it had projected before the virus surfaced.
“This scenario would put Japan and Europe in recession, and the U.S. close to zero,” Laurence Boone, the organization’s chief economist, told reporters during a conference call Monday.“This scenario would put Japan and Europe in recession, and the U.S. close to zero,” Laurence Boone, the organization’s chief economist, told reporters during a conference call Monday.
She added, “This is not a worst-case scenario.” The impact could be even more dire if the outbreak spreads beyond Asia, Europe and the United States and into the southern hemisphere, she said.She added, “This is not a worst-case scenario.” The impact could be even more dire if the outbreak spreads beyond Asia, Europe and the United States and into the southern hemisphere, she said.
Policymakers have far less room to move in response today than they had headed into the 2007 recession, but political leaders could provide incentives for companies to shorten work hours rather than lay people off, or delay tax payments for small businesses suffering from plunging sales, for example.Policymakers have far less room to move in response today than they had headed into the 2007 recession, but political leaders could provide incentives for companies to shorten work hours rather than lay people off, or delay tax payments for small businesses suffering from plunging sales, for example.
Ms. Boone said it would be “a very positive signal” if the United States and China were to drop the tariffs they had imposed as part of a trade war.Ms. Boone said it would be “a very positive signal” if the United States and China were to drop the tariffs they had imposed as part of a trade war.
Twitter said on Monday that it was encouraging all of its employees around the world to work from home in a precautionary measure to avoid spreading the coronavirus.Twitter said on Monday that it was encouraging all of its employees around the world to work from home in a precautionary measure to avoid spreading the coronavirus.
The company, which had already closed offices in Japan and South Korea and banned nonessential travel, said it would allow employees in the United States and other countries to stay home. “Beginning today, we are strongly encouraging all employees globally to work from home if they’re able,” Jennifer Christie, Twitter’s chief human resources officer, said in a statement. “We are operating out of an abundance of caution and the utmost dedication to keeping our Tweeps healthy.”The company, which had already closed offices in Japan and South Korea and banned nonessential travel, said it would allow employees in the United States and other countries to stay home. “Beginning today, we are strongly encouraging all employees globally to work from home if they’re able,” Jennifer Christie, Twitter’s chief human resources officer, said in a statement. “We are operating out of an abundance of caution and the utmost dedication to keeping our Tweeps healthy.”
Twitter’s chief executive, Jack Dorsey, pulled out of a speaking engagement at South by Southwest, an annual technology conference and music festival scheduled to be held in two weeks in Austin, Tex.Twitter’s chief executive, Jack Dorsey, pulled out of a speaking engagement at South by Southwest, an annual technology conference and music festival scheduled to be held in two weeks in Austin, Tex.
A number of other tech companies are also discouraging employee travel. Salesforce, a business software company in San Francisco, told employees on Monday that they were prohibited from “all but the most critical domestic travel,” expanding an existing ban on international trips.A number of other tech companies are also discouraging employee travel. Salesforce, a business software company in San Francisco, told employees on Monday that they were prohibited from “all but the most critical domestic travel,” expanding an existing ban on international trips.
The announcements from Twitter and Salesforce followed a crackdown on tech employee travel over the weekend. Amazon told employees they should not travel internationally or domestically, while Facebook called off its annual F8 conference, which brings together executives, employees, and developers. The Game Developers Conference, scheduled for later this month in San Francisco, was also postponed until later this year.The announcements from Twitter and Salesforce followed a crackdown on tech employee travel over the weekend. Amazon told employees they should not travel internationally or domestically, while Facebook called off its annual F8 conference, which brings together executives, employees, and developers. The Game Developers Conference, scheduled for later this month in San Francisco, was also postponed until later this year.
Officials from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia are expected to meet in Vienna this week to try to halt plunging oil prices, which sank about 14 percent last week alone. President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia suggested on Sunday that his country was willing to work with OPEC to try to stabilize prices.Officials from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia are expected to meet in Vienna this week to try to halt plunging oil prices, which sank about 14 percent last week alone. President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia suggested on Sunday that his country was willing to work with OPEC to try to stabilize prices.
Hopes that the gathering will lead to new and deeper production cuts helped lead to price rises on Monday, ending last week’s slide. Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose to more than $51 a barrel.Hopes that the gathering will lead to new and deeper production cuts helped lead to price rises on Monday, ending last week’s slide. Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose to more than $51 a barrel.
The Saudis and other OPEC members are likely to push for cuts of one million barrels a day.The Saudis and other OPEC members are likely to push for cuts of one million barrels a day.
But as the coronavirus continues to fan out across the globe, sapping economic activity, analysts were doubtful that a cut in production of that size would be enough stem the slide in prices.But as the coronavirus continues to fan out across the globe, sapping economic activity, analysts were doubtful that a cut in production of that size would be enough stem the slide in prices.
Two Amazon employees in Milan have contracted the coronavirus, the company said. Amazon has indefinitely halted all travel, including trips within the United States.Two Amazon employees in Milan have contracted the coronavirus, the company said. Amazon has indefinitely halted all travel, including trips within the United States.
The International Air Transport Association said on Monday that it was asking governments to suspend rules obliging carriers to maintain minimum levels of service at individual airports. Rules at about 200 airports worldwide require airlines to use at least 80 percent of the runway capacity they are awarded or risk losing it.The International Air Transport Association said on Monday that it was asking governments to suspend rules obliging carriers to maintain minimum levels of service at individual airports. Rules at about 200 airports worldwide require airlines to use at least 80 percent of the runway capacity they are awarded or risk losing it.
The largest American banks have imposed new limits on their employees’ travel as cases of the coronavirus crop up in more countries. At Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo, employees now need senior managers to approve all international business trips. Only essential trips will be allowed.The largest American banks have imposed new limits on their employees’ travel as cases of the coronavirus crop up in more countries. At Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo, employees now need senior managers to approve all international business trips. Only essential trips will be allowed.
A major energy conference in Houston was canceled. CERAWeek, run by IHS Markit, had been scheduled for the week of March 9, with executives and experts from more than 80 countries attending.A major energy conference in Houston was canceled. CERAWeek, run by IHS Markit, had been scheduled for the week of March 9, with executives and experts from more than 80 countries attending.
The New York Times Company adjusted its expectation for digital advertising revenue this quarter to a decline of 10 percent, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission filing.The New York Times Company adjusted its expectation for digital advertising revenue this quarter to a decline of 10 percent, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission filing.
Facebook said in an internal memo that it would no longer allow social visits from non-employees at any of the company’s global offices. And Twitter said in a blog post on Sunday that it would restrict all nonessential business travel.Facebook said in an internal memo that it would no longer allow social visits from non-employees at any of the company’s global offices. And Twitter said in a blog post on Sunday that it would restrict all nonessential business travel.
Reporting was contributed by Stanley Reed, Kate Conger, Jeanna Smialek, Liz Alderman, Alan Rappeport, Ana Swanson, Matt Phillips, Matt Goldstein, Jack Ewing, Niraj Chokshi, Karen Weise, Kevin Granville, Mike Isaac, Michael Corkery, Alexandra Stevenson, Sapna Maheshwari, Emily Flitter, Stanley Reed, Carlos Tejada, Vindu Goel and Karen Singh.Reporting was contributed by Stanley Reed, Kate Conger, Jeanna Smialek, Liz Alderman, Alan Rappeport, Ana Swanson, Matt Phillips, Matt Goldstein, Jack Ewing, Niraj Chokshi, Karen Weise, Kevin Granville, Mike Isaac, Michael Corkery, Alexandra Stevenson, Sapna Maheshwari, Emily Flitter, Stanley Reed, Carlos Tejada, Vindu Goel and Karen Singh.