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| OPEC Tries to Head Off Oil Glut as Coronavirus Saps Demand | OPEC Tries to Head Off Oil Glut as Coronavirus Saps Demand |
| (3 days later) | |
| Rising expectations that some of the world’s major oil producers will agree to production cuts appeared to steady oil prices on Monday. | Rising expectations that some of the world’s major oil producers will agree to production cuts appeared to steady oil prices on Monday. |
| But as the coronavirus continues to fan out across the globe, sapping economic activity, analysts were doubtful that a cut in production of as much as one million barrels a day would be enough to stem a weekslong slide in prices. | But as the coronavirus continues to fan out across the globe, sapping economic activity, analysts were doubtful that a cut in production of as much as one million barrels a day would be enough to stem a weekslong slide in prices. |
| Officials from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia are expected to meet in Vienna this week to try to halt plunging oil prices, which sank about 14 percent last week alone. The spreading coronavirus epidemic is cutting into demand for oil and weakening OPEC’s clout, but the meeting will still be watched closely by market participants because countries representing roughly half of world oil supplies will be present. | Officials from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia are expected to meet in Vienna this week to try to halt plunging oil prices, which sank about 14 percent last week alone. The spreading coronavirus epidemic is cutting into demand for oil and weakening OPEC’s clout, but the meeting will still be watched closely by market participants because countries representing roughly half of world oil supplies will be present. |
| Hopes that the gathering will lead to new and deeper production cuts helped lead to price rises on Monday, ending last week’s slide. Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose by about 4 percent to $51.68 a barrel. | Hopes that the gathering will lead to new and deeper production cuts helped lead to price rises on Monday, ending last week’s slide. Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose by about 4 percent to $51.68 a barrel. |
| President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia bolstered those hopes by suggesting on Sunday that his country was willing to work with OPEC to try to stabilize prices. The markets have been unsettled in recent weeks by Russia’s reluctance to join OPEC in an emergency meeting to discuss output trims to offset the effects of the coronavirus outbreak. | President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia bolstered those hopes by suggesting on Sunday that his country was willing to work with OPEC to try to stabilize prices. The markets have been unsettled in recent weeks by Russia’s reluctance to join OPEC in an emergency meeting to discuss output trims to offset the effects of the coronavirus outbreak. |
| Instead, OPEC and Russia in early February convened a technical committee that recommended cuts of around 600,000 barrels a day. Now, after the virus has spread to at least 65 countries and oil prices have fallen further, the Saudis and other OPEC members are likely to push for larger cuts of one million barrels a day. | Instead, OPEC and Russia in early February convened a technical committee that recommended cuts of around 600,000 barrels a day. Now, after the virus has spread to at least 65 countries and oil prices have fallen further, the Saudis and other OPEC members are likely to push for larger cuts of one million barrels a day. |
| Russian officials have argued in the past that it was too early to fully understand the full impact of the coronavirus and that an existing shortfall of about one million barrels a day, caused by political turmoil in Libya, was helping to offset reduced demand from the virus outbreak. | Russian officials have argued in the past that it was too early to fully understand the full impact of the coronavirus and that an existing shortfall of about one million barrels a day, caused by political turmoil in Libya, was helping to offset reduced demand from the virus outbreak. |
| Mr. Putin told a group of energy officials on Sunday that although Russia had sufficient financial reserves to weather upcoming economic storms, the country’s three-year alliance with OPEC had “proved to be an effective instrument to ensure long-term stability on global energy markets,” Reuters reported. | Mr. Putin told a group of energy officials on Sunday that although Russia had sufficient financial reserves to weather upcoming economic storms, the country’s three-year alliance with OPEC had “proved to be an effective instrument to ensure long-term stability on global energy markets,” Reuters reported. |
| Analysts say Russia now seems likely to support additional production cuts at this week’s meeting, which was scheduled in December. One reason: Continued discord with OPEC might lead to further price plunges. | Analysts say Russia now seems likely to support additional production cuts at this week’s meeting, which was scheduled in December. One reason: Continued discord with OPEC might lead to further price plunges. |
| “Nothing concentrates a producer’s mind like the prospect of a crude oil price bust,” said Robert McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, a market research firm. | “Nothing concentrates a producer’s mind like the prospect of a crude oil price bust,” said Robert McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, a market research firm. |
| In 2014, after failing to bring Russia and others on board for production trims, Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de facto leader, walked away from market management efforts, leading prices to eventually fall below $30 a barrel. That rupture led to the 2016 accord between OPEC and Russia that helped prop up the markets for three years. | In 2014, after failing to bring Russia and others on board for production trims, Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de facto leader, walked away from market management efforts, leading prices to eventually fall below $30 a barrel. That rupture led to the 2016 accord between OPEC and Russia that helped prop up the markets for three years. |
| In addition, Russia’s participation is likely to come relatively cheaply. So far, the Russians have contributed relatively small amounts to production cutbacks, while the Saudis, with help from their Persian Gulf allies, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, have absorbed the bulk of the cuts. This pattern is likely to continue, analysts say. | In addition, Russia’s participation is likely to come relatively cheaply. So far, the Russians have contributed relatively small amounts to production cutbacks, while the Saudis, with help from their Persian Gulf allies, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, have absorbed the bulk of the cuts. This pattern is likely to continue, analysts say. |
| Brent prices have fallen about 20 percent since late January. Forecasts of demand for oil this year are being lowered as the spreading coronavirus outbreak cuts into air travel and other activity. | Brent prices have fallen about 20 percent since late January. Forecasts of demand for oil this year are being lowered as the spreading coronavirus outbreak cuts into air travel and other activity. |
| Updated June 5, 2020 | |
| The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. | |
| Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission. | Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission. |
| Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home. | Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home. |
| States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. | States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. |
| Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. | Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. |
| Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. | Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. |
| If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) | If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) |
| Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications. | Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications. |
| The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing. | The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing. |
| If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. | If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. |
| If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. | If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. |
| On Monday, for instance, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said that if the outbreak swept widely through the Asia-Pacific region, Europe and North America, global growth could fall to 1.5 percent this year, half of the 3 percent it had projected before the virus surfaced. That puts pressure on prices, and OPEC, despite all the barrels it commands, will struggle to reverse the trend, analysts say. | On Monday, for instance, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said that if the outbreak swept widely through the Asia-Pacific region, Europe and North America, global growth could fall to 1.5 percent this year, half of the 3 percent it had projected before the virus surfaced. That puts pressure on prices, and OPEC, despite all the barrels it commands, will struggle to reverse the trend, analysts say. |
| “It is not really in their hands,” Bhushan Bahree, senior director at IHS Markit, a research firm, said of the OPEC group. “They are just chasing demand down; people don’t want to buy their oil and don’t have a need for it.” | “It is not really in their hands,” Bhushan Bahree, senior director at IHS Markit, a research firm, said of the OPEC group. “They are just chasing demand down; people don’t want to buy their oil and don’t have a need for it.” |
| Mr. McNally said OPEC and Russia needed to make a further cut of about one million barrels a day, or about 1 percent of world supply, this week in Vienna to help put “a floor under Brent,” or about $40 a barrel. Even a cut of that order, he said, which would come on top of 2.1 million barrels a day of existing cuts, could prove over time to be insufficient to keep pace with falling demand. | Mr. McNally said OPEC and Russia needed to make a further cut of about one million barrels a day, or about 1 percent of world supply, this week in Vienna to help put “a floor under Brent,” or about $40 a barrel. Even a cut of that order, he said, which would come on top of 2.1 million barrels a day of existing cuts, could prove over time to be insufficient to keep pace with falling demand. |
| The impact from the “coronavirus could be much more wide reaching and put demand under downward pressure,” he said. | The impact from the “coronavirus could be much more wide reaching and put demand under downward pressure,” he said. |