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| China Stopped Its Economy to Tackle Coronavirus. Now the World Suffers. | China Stopped Its Economy to Tackle Coronavirus. Now the World Suffers. |
| (about 7 hours later) | |
| In an industrial area west of Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport, more than 6,000 miles from China, Michael Smerling is steeling himself for a devastating blow from the coronavirus outbreak. | In an industrial area west of Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport, more than 6,000 miles from China, Michael Smerling is steeling himself for a devastating blow from the coronavirus outbreak. |
| Mr. Smerling makes knapsacks, travel pouches and outdoor gear for companies like Bed Bath & Beyond, Nordstrom Rack and Amazon. For now, the warehouse of his company, LCI Brands, is packed with merchandise. | Mr. Smerling makes knapsacks, travel pouches and outdoor gear for companies like Bed Bath & Beyond, Nordstrom Rack and Amazon. For now, the warehouse of his company, LCI Brands, is packed with merchandise. |
| Perhaps not for much longer. His company’s Chinese suppliers have been shut down as the authorities try to stop the outbreak, essentially freezing vast swaths of the world’s second-largest economy, after that of the United States. Last week, Mr. Smerling laid off eight people, about a fifth of his full-time work force. | Perhaps not for much longer. His company’s Chinese suppliers have been shut down as the authorities try to stop the outbreak, essentially freezing vast swaths of the world’s second-largest economy, after that of the United States. Last week, Mr. Smerling laid off eight people, about a fifth of his full-time work force. |
| “It was the hardest decision I’ve made in my career,” Mr. Smerling said. | “It was the hardest decision I’ve made in my career,” Mr. Smerling said. |
| If the coronavirus plunges the world into recession, China will be the biggest reason. Economists caution that its shutdown threatens the economies of Japan, South Korea, Europe and even the United States. Huge corporations like Apple, Microsoft, AB InBev and Pfizer have already seen an impact. | If the coronavirus plunges the world into recession, China will be the biggest reason. Economists caution that its shutdown threatens the economies of Japan, South Korea, Europe and even the United States. Huge corporations like Apple, Microsoft, AB InBev and Pfizer have already seen an impact. |
| Even those warnings understate China’s reach. An economic disaster just four decades ago, China now touches the lives of billions of people around the world. China matters to Mr. Smerling, Chilean farmers, Thai tour guides, Indian automakers, Mongolian truck drivers and countless others who depend on its economic might. | Even those warnings understate China’s reach. An economic disaster just four decades ago, China now touches the lives of billions of people around the world. China matters to Mr. Smerling, Chilean farmers, Thai tour guides, Indian automakers, Mongolian truck drivers and countless others who depend on its economic might. |
| When China stops, they feel it. | When China stops, they feel it. |
| “An economy is an object in motion,” said Rodney Jones, an economist specializing in China. “A lot of things work in connection: supply chains, shipping, transport, movement of goods. There is no one standing over it telling it which component goes where.” | “An economy is an object in motion,” said Rodney Jones, an economist specializing in China. “A lot of things work in connection: supply chains, shipping, transport, movement of goods. There is no one standing over it telling it which component goes where.” |
| “The idea that we can stop an economy and restart it is crazy,” he added. | “The idea that we can stop an economy and restart it is crazy,” he added. |
| China has become a voracious consumer of the world’s rocks, oil, food and other raw materials. Before President Trump launched a trade war against China, it bought more than one-quarter of America’s soybeans. Australia’s mining industry, which employs more than 200,000 people, depends on China. | China has become a voracious consumer of the world’s rocks, oil, food and other raw materials. Before President Trump launched a trade war against China, it bought more than one-quarter of America’s soybeans. Australia’s mining industry, which employs more than 200,000 people, depends on China. |
| In Mongolia, coal mining for China makes up nearly half of its export revenue and provides jobs for people like Battogtokh Uurtsaikh, who is wondering what to do next. | In Mongolia, coal mining for China makes up nearly half of its export revenue and provides jobs for people like Battogtokh Uurtsaikh, who is wondering what to do next. |
| Mr. Battogtokh drives 70-ton truckloads of coal from a huge mine in the Gobi Desert to the border with China. The schedule requires him to navigate a potholed, two-lane highway clogged with other coal trucks on one or two hours’ sleep. | Mr. Battogtokh drives 70-ton truckloads of coal from a huge mine in the Gobi Desert to the border with China. The schedule requires him to navigate a potholed, two-lane highway clogged with other coal trucks on one or two hours’ sleep. |
| For Mr. Battogtokh, it is the only way to provide a better future for his children. China’s demand has made the job one of the best paid in the country. In a good month, he can make as much as $1,600. | For Mr. Battogtokh, it is the only way to provide a better future for his children. China’s demand has made the job one of the best paid in the country. In a good month, he can make as much as $1,600. |
| In January, Mongolia closed the border. Mr. Battogtokh’s plan to pay back a truck loan this year is in jeopardy. The last of his money, he said, went to the bank as payment for two separate loans worth $7,300. | In January, Mongolia closed the border. Mr. Battogtokh’s plan to pay back a truck loan this year is in jeopardy. The last of his money, he said, went to the bank as payment for two separate loans worth $7,300. |
| Mr. Battogtokh, who has a 7-year-old son and a 3-year-old daughter, needs another job. “Their future depends on what I am doing now,” he said. | Mr. Battogtokh, who has a 7-year-old son and a 3-year-old daughter, needs another job. “Their future depends on what I am doing now,” he said. |
| Some of his friends, desperate for work, still drive coal to the border in hopes of finding buyers. | Some of his friends, desperate for work, still drive coal to the border in hopes of finding buyers. |
| “But they can’t get paid by their Chinese bosses,” Mr. Battogtokh said. “They don’t even have money to buy food.” | “But they can’t get paid by their Chinese bosses,” Mr. Battogtokh said. “They don’t even have money to buy food.” |
| China’s appetite goes beyond raw materials. It rivals the United States when it comes to shopping. People in China are the world’s largest purchasers of automobiles, smartphones and luxury goods. | China’s appetite goes beyond raw materials. It rivals the United States when it comes to shopping. People in China are the world’s largest purchasers of automobiles, smartphones and luxury goods. |
| Life Together, a South Korean manufacturer, once earned 40 percent of its sales from China. A maker of lotions, facial masks and other beauty products, the company had been counting on an even bigger boost from JD.com, a big Chinese online retailer, where it was supposed to begin sales on a trial basis this year. | Life Together, a South Korean manufacturer, once earned 40 percent of its sales from China. A maker of lotions, facial masks and other beauty products, the company had been counting on an even bigger boost from JD.com, a big Chinese online retailer, where it was supposed to begin sales on a trial basis this year. |
| Song Woonseo, the founder of Life Together, and his team spent six months developing the right skin care products. Then the coronavirus hit. | Song Woonseo, the founder of Life Together, and his team spent six months developing the right skin care products. Then the coronavirus hit. |
| “Then it felt like things were crumbling down, big time,” Mr. Song said. The deal is now up in the air. “We are in limbo,” he said. | “Then it felt like things were crumbling down, big time,” Mr. Song said. The deal is now up in the air. “We are in limbo,” he said. |
| With logistics snarled in China, Mr. Song said, his other China-bound products are sitting in storage. | With logistics snarled in China, Mr. Song said, his other China-bound products are sitting in storage. |
| “On top of that,” he added, “we can’t even produce things that we had to because we haven’t been able to receive materials and parts from China to do so.” | “On top of that,” he added, “we can’t even produce things that we had to because we haven’t been able to receive materials and parts from China to do so.” |
| China’s consumers make up a powerful force outside the country’s borders, too. They spend more than $250 billion a year on travel, considerably more than Americans. | China’s consumers make up a powerful force outside the country’s borders, too. They spend more than $250 billion a year on travel, considerably more than Americans. |
| Now, the vast majority are staying home. In late January, China suspended tour groups and travel package sales. | Now, the vast majority are staying home. In late January, China suspended tour groups and travel package sales. |
| “I have zero clients,” said Saichon Chuenchoo, who has worked as a tour guide in Thailand for 25 years. | “I have zero clients,” said Saichon Chuenchoo, who has worked as a tour guide in Thailand for 25 years. |
| Mr. Saichon, who speaks Mandarin, specializes in leading big groups around Bangkok and central Thailand. His charges, wearing matching hats and following his waving flag, have become a welcome sight at tourist spots. | Mr. Saichon, who speaks Mandarin, specializes in leading big groups around Bangkok and central Thailand. His charges, wearing matching hats and following his waving flag, have become a welcome sight at tourist spots. |
| Now Bangkok’s Huai Kwang Market and the Train Market in Ratchada, two popular Chinese tourist spots, are virtually empty, with more sellers at stalls than tourists. On some nights, some stall owners don’t bother to show up. | Now Bangkok’s Huai Kwang Market and the Train Market in Ratchada, two popular Chinese tourist spots, are virtually empty, with more sellers at stalls than tourists. On some nights, some stall owners don’t bother to show up. |
| Mr. Saichon has to be thrifty. He has a second job, but he and his wife are teaching their two daughters how to be careful, too. | Mr. Saichon has to be thrifty. He has a second job, but he and his wife are teaching their two daughters how to be careful, too. |
| Other tour guides aren’t as fortunate, said Mr. Saichon, who is working with an industry association to secure financial support from the Thai government. Around 10,000 tour guides have lost their jobs since the virus first began to spread. Some Chinese tour operators who asked guides to pay for their own logistics in advance have absconded with the money, Mr. Saichon said, leaving them with as much as $3,000 or $4,000 in debt. | Other tour guides aren’t as fortunate, said Mr. Saichon, who is working with an industry association to secure financial support from the Thai government. Around 10,000 tour guides have lost their jobs since the virus first began to spread. Some Chinese tour operators who asked guides to pay for their own logistics in advance have absconded with the money, Mr. Saichon said, leaving them with as much as $3,000 or $4,000 in debt. |
| “It’s hard enough with the coronavirus outbreak and now some are facing this,” Mr. Saichon said. | “It’s hard enough with the coronavirus outbreak and now some are facing this,” Mr. Saichon said. |
| China’s growing wealth has made it an essential market for a range of businesses, big and small, that make specialized high-end products. That dependence on China has now become a liability. | China’s growing wealth has made it an essential market for a range of businesses, big and small, that make specialized high-end products. That dependence on China has now become a liability. |
| Updated June 2, 2020 | |
| Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission. | |
| Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home. | Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home. |
| States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. | States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. |
| Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. | Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. |
| Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. | Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. |
| If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) | If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) |
| More than 40 million people — the equivalent of 1 in 4 U.S. workers — have filed for unemployment benefits since the pandemic took hold. One in five who were working in February reported losing a job or being furloughed in March or the beginning of April, data from a Federal Reserve survey released on May 14 showed, and that pain was highly concentrated among low earners. Fully 39 percent of former workers living in a household earning $40,000 or less lost work, compared with 13 percent in those making more than $100,000, a Fed official said. | More than 40 million people — the equivalent of 1 in 4 U.S. workers — have filed for unemployment benefits since the pandemic took hold. One in five who were working in February reported losing a job or being furloughed in March or the beginning of April, data from a Federal Reserve survey released on May 14 showed, and that pain was highly concentrated among low earners. Fully 39 percent of former workers living in a household earning $40,000 or less lost work, compared with 13 percent in those making more than $100,000, a Fed official said. |
| Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications. | Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications. |
| The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing. | The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing. |
| If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. | If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. |
| If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. | If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. |
| Glasbau Hahn, a firm in Frankfurt, makes glass display cases for museums like the Metropolitan Museum of Art in New York. | Glasbau Hahn, a firm in Frankfurt, makes glass display cases for museums like the Metropolitan Museum of Art in New York. |
| Isabel Hahn, a member of the family that owns the company, said payment for a project in the Chinese city of Zhengzhou had been delayed. Glasbau Hahn’s vitrines have been installed, but other work at the museum has stopped. The firm won’t be paid until the project is complete. | Isabel Hahn, a member of the family that owns the company, said payment for a project in the Chinese city of Zhengzhou had been delayed. Glasbau Hahn’s vitrines have been installed, but other work at the museum has stopped. The firm won’t be paid until the project is complete. |
| Glasbau Hahn also won’t get paid for a project in Nanchang, where it expects to deliver vitrines to a museum on schedule, but the construction site is closed indefinitely. | Glasbau Hahn also won’t get paid for a project in Nanchang, where it expects to deliver vitrines to a museum on schedule, but the construction site is closed indefinitely. |
| Ms. Hahn said the company could absorb the financial hit, but she added, “We have to keep an eye on our liquidity.” | Ms. Hahn said the company could absorb the financial hit, but she added, “We have to keep an eye on our liquidity.” |
| Some places are still waiting for the full impact. | Some places are still waiting for the full impact. |
| Chile counts China as its biggest trading partner, with copper its largest export. But the South American country has tried to diversify, and cherries have become important exports. During the Lunar New Year holiday, Chilean farmers ship large containers of cherries to China, catching a window when the United States is out of season. | Chile counts China as its biggest trading partner, with copper its largest export. But the South American country has tried to diversify, and cherries have become important exports. During the Lunar New Year holiday, Chilean farmers ship large containers of cherries to China, catching a window when the United States is out of season. |
| “The agri-food sector has been, up to date, the most exposed one,” said Rodrigo Yañez, vice minister for trade in Chile. Copper exports have already been hit by the trade war between the United States and China and the lower commodity prices that resulted. | “The agri-food sector has been, up to date, the most exposed one,” said Rodrigo Yañez, vice minister for trade in Chile. Copper exports have already been hit by the trade war between the United States and China and the lower commodity prices that resulted. |
| For all its growing purchasing power, China remains a force in manufacturing, the industry that propelled it to prosperity. Mr. Smerling, who owns the travel gear company LCI Brands, has long depended on China as a supplier, even though the trade war between the United States and China made it more expensive to buy from there. His company was hit by three rounds of tariffs last year. | For all its growing purchasing power, China remains a force in manufacturing, the industry that propelled it to prosperity. Mr. Smerling, who owns the travel gear company LCI Brands, has long depended on China as a supplier, even though the trade war between the United States and China made it more expensive to buy from there. His company was hit by three rounds of tariffs last year. |
| Now Mr. Smerling can’t even reach some of his suppliers. Information is sparse, he said, and he doesn’t trust everyone is being forthcoming. | Now Mr. Smerling can’t even reach some of his suppliers. Information is sparse, he said, and he doesn’t trust everyone is being forthcoming. |
| “We don’t know what is truth, what is propaganda and what is bald-face lies,” Mr. Smerling said. He believes at least one supplier is misleading him so that he will put down a deposit with the company. “Everyone,” he said, “is desperate for money.” | “We don’t know what is truth, what is propaganda and what is bald-face lies,” Mr. Smerling said. He believes at least one supplier is misleading him so that he will put down a deposit with the company. “Everyone,” he said, “is desperate for money.” |
| When he is able to gather information, the news is not good. Some workers have returned to their factories as the Chinese government tries to get the economy restarted, but they are under 14-day quarantines in their dormitories. Some factories say they will be online by March 15. For others, April looks more realistic, he said. | When he is able to gather information, the news is not good. Some workers have returned to their factories as the Chinese government tries to get the economy restarted, but they are under 14-day quarantines in their dormitories. Some factories say they will be online by March 15. For others, April looks more realistic, he said. |
| “All our planning has been turned upside down,” said Mr. Smerling. | “All our planning has been turned upside down,” said Mr. Smerling. |
| Mr. Smerling said he could see worrying signs for other small businesses across the country. | Mr. Smerling said he could see worrying signs for other small businesses across the country. |
| The virus, he said, “is going to affect every level of American society.” | The virus, he said, “is going to affect every level of American society.” |
| Reporting was contributed by Ryn Jirenuwat, Khaliun Bayartsogt, Jack Ewing, Su-Hyun Lee and Keith Bradsher. | Reporting was contributed by Ryn Jirenuwat, Khaliun Bayartsogt, Jack Ewing, Su-Hyun Lee and Keith Bradsher. |