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| Bernie and Joe’s Excellent Adventure | Bernie and Joe’s Excellent Adventure |
| (3 days later) | |
| Bret Stephens: Happy Super Tuesday, Gail! Until South Carolina voted last week, I was expecting today to amount to a Bernie Sanders coronation party. Now there’s the possibility of a competitive race. Any thoughts on Joe Biden’s chances? | Bret Stephens: Happy Super Tuesday, Gail! Until South Carolina voted last week, I was expecting today to amount to a Bernie Sanders coronation party. Now there’s the possibility of a competitive race. Any thoughts on Joe Biden’s chances? |
| Gail Collins: Well, Bret, I am among the many, many Americans who just want someone who can beat Trump. Biden sounds like a great shot if he can avoid, um, falling into incoherence. | Gail Collins: Well, Bret, I am among the many, many Americans who just want someone who can beat Trump. Biden sounds like a great shot if he can avoid, um, falling into incoherence. |
| Bret: As Winston Churchill might have said, never in the field of political conflict has so much depended on the conjunction “if.” | Bret: As Winston Churchill might have said, never in the field of political conflict has so much depended on the conjunction “if.” |
| Gail: I know you can’t take Bernie but as president he’d be fine by me. So I’m just ready to sit back and watch what happens after all these votes are counted. Presuming we don’t fall victim to coronavirus before. | Gail: I know you can’t take Bernie but as president he’d be fine by me. So I’m just ready to sit back and watch what happens after all these votes are counted. Presuming we don’t fall victim to coronavirus before. |
| Bret: Oh, Gail, I nearly forgot to congratulate you: Donald Trump just called you a “stone cold loser” for your column from last week. I’m feeling more than a touch of envy. Anyway, we’ve got nothing to worry about with this coronavirus business, since it’s obviously a liberal hoax. Don’t you find it suspicious that it’s named after a Mexican beer? | Bret: Oh, Gail, I nearly forgot to congratulate you: Donald Trump just called you a “stone cold loser” for your column from last week. I’m feeling more than a touch of envy. Anyway, we’ve got nothing to worry about with this coronavirus business, since it’s obviously a liberal hoax. Don’t you find it suspicious that it’s named after a Mexican beer? |
| Gail: It’s very strange to be living in a time when being attacked personally by the president of the United States gets you a day full of congratulations. | Gail: It’s very strange to be living in a time when being attacked personally by the president of the United States gets you a day full of congratulations. |
| Bret: More seriously, it’s interesting to see the disconnect between what the president spouts and what his administration does. The Department of Health and Human Services is considering invoking Korean War-era emergency powers to mass produce face masks and other medical equipment to deal with a potential catastrophe while Trump makes misleading comparisons to seasonal flu. Once again, my thanks go out to the Deep State. | Bret: More seriously, it’s interesting to see the disconnect between what the president spouts and what his administration does. The Department of Health and Human Services is considering invoking Korean War-era emergency powers to mass produce face masks and other medical equipment to deal with a potential catastrophe while Trump makes misleading comparisons to seasonal flu. Once again, my thanks go out to the Deep State. |
| I wonder if, politically speaking, this could prove to be Trump’s Katrina moment — only this one is happening before the election, not after it. | |
| Gail: Since we’re supposed to avoid too much agreement, let’s try to turn this into an argument. I know it’s hard since we’re, um, both against national viral infection. | Gail: Since we’re supposed to avoid too much agreement, let’s try to turn this into an argument. I know it’s hard since we’re, um, both against national viral infection. |
| One of the big problems we’ve got is a lack of federal preparation for a possible pandemic. That’s Trump’s doing — he dismantled the system in place during the Obama administration. And it’s in keeping with his general sloppy style of governing. After all, this is a guy who’s had five different heads of the Department of Homeland Security in three years. But maybe he was also following the normal conservative impulse to cull back on spending whenever possible. | One of the big problems we’ve got is a lack of federal preparation for a possible pandemic. That’s Trump’s doing — he dismantled the system in place during the Obama administration. And it’s in keeping with his general sloppy style of governing. After all, this is a guy who’s had five different heads of the Department of Homeland Security in three years. But maybe he was also following the normal conservative impulse to cull back on spending whenever possible. |
| Can I blame part of this on a basic less-government-is-good philosophy? | Can I blame part of this on a basic less-government-is-good philosophy? |
| Bret: Nah. Even William F. Buckley Jr., rest his soul, would agree that containing a global pandemic and dealing with similar public-health emergencies is a moral obligation and an essential function of government. George W. Bush thought so, too, by the way, which is why he took the lead in fighting H.I.V./AIDS through the Pepfar program. Most conservatives want less red tape, not more black crepe. | |
| Gail: You’ve got to remember that last line. | Gail: You’ve got to remember that last line. |
| Bret: But the coronavirus threat illustrates how damaging Trump’s presidency has been. Emergencies like this one can’t be contained by emergency measures alone. They require credible, trustworthy, steady, knowledgeable leadership. And Trump has about as much credibility with most of the American public as the Soviet government did during the Chernobyl disaster. | Bret: But the coronavirus threat illustrates how damaging Trump’s presidency has been. Emergencies like this one can’t be contained by emergency measures alone. They require credible, trustworthy, steady, knowledgeable leadership. And Trump has about as much credibility with most of the American public as the Soviet government did during the Chernobyl disaster. |
| Gail: I am going to let this go, while muttering that the conservative philosophy does suggest cleaning out a lot of the government work force. Maybe in the ideal administration that wouldn’t include public health, but still … | Gail: I am going to let this go, while muttering that the conservative philosophy does suggest cleaning out a lot of the government work force. Maybe in the ideal administration that wouldn’t include public health, but still … |
| Back to Super Tuesday. Now that Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar have dropped out of the race, do you think Biden can really take it? Seems ridiculous to say the moderates may have waited too long to consolidate on an anti-Bernie consensus — it’s only the start of March, for heaven’s sake. But I do wonder. | Back to Super Tuesday. Now that Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar have dropped out of the race, do you think Biden can really take it? Seems ridiculous to say the moderates may have waited too long to consolidate on an anti-Bernie consensus — it’s only the start of March, for heaven’s sake. But I do wonder. |
| Bret: Hopeful to the point of prayerful — but skeptical. My fear is that South Carolina was to the Biden campaign what the Pyrrhic War was to the Greeks. | Bret: Hopeful to the point of prayerful — but skeptical. My fear is that South Carolina was to the Biden campaign what the Pyrrhic War was to the Greeks. |
| Gail: I love the way you can suddenly transport us into 275 B.C. | Gail: I love the way you can suddenly transport us into 275 B.C. |
| Bret: Biden can probably expect to win in North Carolina and maybe Virginia. Perhaps the endorsements from Buttigieg and Klobuchar will help him in other states. But the biggest prizes — California and Texas — look to be solidly in Sanders’s hands. He might even win in Massachusetts, which should be a signal for Elizabeth Warren to follow the lead of Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar and bow out. | Bret: Biden can probably expect to win in North Carolina and maybe Virginia. Perhaps the endorsements from Buttigieg and Klobuchar will help him in other states. But the biggest prizes — California and Texas — look to be solidly in Sanders’s hands. He might even win in Massachusetts, which should be a signal for Elizabeth Warren to follow the lead of Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar and bow out. |
| As for Mike Bloomberg, he’s got to ask himself whether his presence in the race does more to strengthen Sanders — both by cutting into Biden’s potential vote and serving as the billionaire bugaboo — than it does to weaken him. | As for Mike Bloomberg, he’s got to ask himself whether his presence in the race does more to strengthen Sanders — both by cutting into Biden’s potential vote and serving as the billionaire bugaboo — than it does to weaken him. |
| Gail: The one thing the nation can probably come together on is that Mike Bloomberg, for all his executive talents, is not somebody you want to see on TV every night for the next five years. | Gail: The one thing the nation can probably come together on is that Mike Bloomberg, for all his executive talents, is not somebody you want to see on TV every night for the next five years. |
| Bret: By the way, I’d be thrilled to be mistaken about any of this, because nominating Sanders is like going over Niagara Falls in a barrel. It’s either going to be a triumph for the ages or death in a thousand little pieces. | Bret: By the way, I’d be thrilled to be mistaken about any of this, because nominating Sanders is like going over Niagara Falls in a barrel. It’s either going to be a triumph for the ages or death in a thousand little pieces. |
| Gail: Don’t get your hopes up about Biden too fast. That victory in South Carolina was his first primary win in three presidential election campaigns. And he doesn’t seem all that ready, organizationally or budgetarily, for the big states and a sweeping national campaign. | Gail: Don’t get your hopes up about Biden too fast. That victory in South Carolina was his first primary win in three presidential election campaigns. And he doesn’t seem all that ready, organizationally or budgetarily, for the big states and a sweeping national campaign. |
| Bret: Here’s another scenario: Assume Biden gets absolutely clobbered today, despite the endorsements, and decides to bow out. That leaves Bloomberg, who can afford to stay as long as he pleases. Bloomberg then rallies a sufficient number of moderate Democrats to deny Sanders an absolute majority at the convention. Next, Bloomberg announces that Stacey Abrams will be his running mate, which she accepts despite the same offer from Sanders and Biden. This pragmatic-progressive ticket goes on to win in November. | Bret: Here’s another scenario: Assume Biden gets absolutely clobbered today, despite the endorsements, and decides to bow out. That leaves Bloomberg, who can afford to stay as long as he pleases. Bloomberg then rallies a sufficient number of moderate Democrats to deny Sanders an absolute majority at the convention. Next, Bloomberg announces that Stacey Abrams will be his running mate, which she accepts despite the same offer from Sanders and Biden. This pragmatic-progressive ticket goes on to win in November. |
| OK, OK: Naaaaaahhhhhhh. | OK, OK: Naaaaaahhhhhhh. |
| Gail: So glad you beat me to it. | Gail: So glad you beat me to it. |
| Bret: Bloomberg almost certainly self-destructed in that first debate and no amount of ad spending is going to bring him back. And Sanders is almost certainly going to win the lion’s share of delegates tonight, and the more he looks like the presumptive nominee, the less his remaining opponents are going to want to step in his way. Plus Biden is now the preferred moderate choice, not Bloomberg. | Bret: Bloomberg almost certainly self-destructed in that first debate and no amount of ad spending is going to bring him back. And Sanders is almost certainly going to win the lion’s share of delegates tonight, and the more he looks like the presumptive nominee, the less his remaining opponents are going to want to step in his way. Plus Biden is now the preferred moderate choice, not Bloomberg. |
| If the former New York mayor stays in the race, he’ll rally Democratic moderates to oppose Sanders about as effectively as Ted Cruz rallied hard-core conservatives to oppose Trump in 2016. A brokered convention that doesn’t give Sanders the nomination would be a disaster for the Democrats, since much of his base would revolt by refusing to vote in the general election. And the idea that, given the choice, a progressive like Abrams would choose Bloomberg over Sanders or Biden is far-fetched at best. | If the former New York mayor stays in the race, he’ll rally Democratic moderates to oppose Sanders about as effectively as Ted Cruz rallied hard-core conservatives to oppose Trump in 2016. A brokered convention that doesn’t give Sanders the nomination would be a disaster for the Democrats, since much of his base would revolt by refusing to vote in the general election. And the idea that, given the choice, a progressive like Abrams would choose Bloomberg over Sanders or Biden is far-fetched at best. |
| Gail, how do you feel about another four years of President Trump? | Gail, how do you feel about another four years of President Trump? |
| Gail: No negative thinking! Especially when things do seem to be perking up for your side, what with the moderates all coming together. And while we’re talking, we ought to give a goodbye nod to Klobuchar and Buttigieg. They have a lot to be proud of in the way they campaigned. | Gail: No negative thinking! Especially when things do seem to be perking up for your side, what with the moderates all coming together. And while we’re talking, we ought to give a goodbye nod to Klobuchar and Buttigieg. They have a lot to be proud of in the way they campaigned. |
| Bret: As our friend Frank Bruni notes in his latest column, Mayor Pete deserves great credit for doing the grown-up thing and putting party over self. I see a cabinet posting in his future. And I’ll miss Klobuchar — she got better with every debate and communicated empathy and intelligence, as opposed to bluster, schtick and ideological puritanism. | Bret: As our friend Frank Bruni notes in his latest column, Mayor Pete deserves great credit for doing the grown-up thing and putting party over self. I see a cabinet posting in his future. And I’ll miss Klobuchar — she got better with every debate and communicated empathy and intelligence, as opposed to bluster, schtick and ideological puritanism. |
| Gail: And even a modest kudo to Tom Steyer, who wisely took South Carolina as a message from the gods that there isn’t enough money in the world to get him elected. | Gail: And even a modest kudo to Tom Steyer, who wisely took South Carolina as a message from the gods that there isn’t enough money in the world to get him elected. |
| Bret: Steyer’s epic loss in South Carolina, the state he tried to buy, was one of the more satisfying moments in this race. I hope tartan ties go out of fashion forever. | Bret: Steyer’s epic loss in South Carolina, the state he tried to buy, was one of the more satisfying moments in this race. I hope tartan ties go out of fashion forever. |
| Gail: Buttigieg certainly isn’t going away from presidential politics for good. He’s got about 40 more years’ worth of opportunities to make the big run and I don’t think it’ll take him a fraction of that long. | Gail: Buttigieg certainly isn’t going away from presidential politics for good. He’s got about 40 more years’ worth of opportunities to make the big run and I don’t think it’ll take him a fraction of that long. |
| Bret: True. Still disappointed he was never able to capitalize on Iowa. | Bret: True. Still disappointed he was never able to capitalize on Iowa. |
| Gail: Amy Klobuchar might have at least a modest hope for a No. 2 slot. At worst she can go back to the Senate, where she’s been a pretty effective legislator. | Gail: Amy Klobuchar might have at least a modest hope for a No. 2 slot. At worst she can go back to the Senate, where she’s been a pretty effective legislator. |
| There’s still Elizabeth Warren, who was my favorite for a long time. But if she doesn’t do all that well in Massachusetts, the writing is most definitely on her wall. | There’s still Elizabeth Warren, who was my favorite for a long time. But if she doesn’t do all that well in Massachusetts, the writing is most definitely on her wall. |
| Bret: Her campaign will go down in history as a case study in peaking two weeks too early. | Bret: Her campaign will go down in history as a case study in peaking two weeks too early. |
| Gail: If Warren does depart, it’d leave us with a Biden-Bloomberg-Bernie scenario. A race which I believe Bloomberg has absolutely no ability to win. At that point, if you want to stand at rallies waving “Go Away Bloomie!” signs, I’ll join you. | Gail: If Warren does depart, it’d leave us with a Biden-Bloomberg-Bernie scenario. A race which I believe Bloomberg has absolutely no ability to win. At that point, if you want to stand at rallies waving “Go Away Bloomie!” signs, I’ll join you. |
| Bret: You know I hate admitting you’re right, Gail. | Bret: You know I hate admitting you’re right, Gail. |
| Gail: And then, when all is done, if Bernie still gets the nomination I will cheer as hard as I humanly can for him to become the next president. Sorry, Bret. | Gail: And then, when all is done, if Bernie still gets the nomination I will cheer as hard as I humanly can for him to become the next president. Sorry, Bret. |
| Bret: On that we won’t agree. But I think the lesson of this nomination season is that voters will continue to surprise the pundits. | Bret: On that we won’t agree. But I think the lesson of this nomination season is that voters will continue to surprise the pundits. |
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